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Intel Report: Russian armed personnel in European waters
Date: 05/12/2025 Executive Summary During 2025, reports have been made indicating the presence of uniformed, armed personnel (likely Russian-associated) aboard civilian vessels thought to be part of the vast Russian ‘shadow fleet’ comprising ageing, uninsured oil tankers and cargo vessels registered under flags of convenience and with deliberately confusing ownership structures. These uniformed personnel serve intelligence, surveillance, and command-and-control functions abo
Dec 5, 20259 min read


Intel Brief: Russian vessel Yantar incident off UK coast
Date: 24/11/2025 (16:00 UTC+01:00) Who? Russian intelligence-gathering vessel Yantar (Project 22010 oceanographic vessel, ~108 metres, IMO 7524419); operated by Russian Ministry of Defence Main Directorate of Deep-Sea Research (GUGI); deployed by Russian Navy/intelligence agencies. Where? Not expressly given by the British government, but according to open source flight data and the approaches of two military aircraft, the location of the incident likely occurred north w
Nov 25, 20254 min read


Tensions in the Caribbean: civilian risks due to an increasingly militarised environment
Report date: 14 October 2025 (17:00 hours UTC+2) Executive summary Recent military activity by the United States and Venezuela in the southern Caribbean increases exposure for civilian airliners and merchant ships to short-notice airspace and sea-lane restrictions, re-routing and delays. Night-time reconnaissance patterns in the southern Puerto Rico FIR, added airlift and refuelling flights, and exercises near busy approaches raise the chance of misidentification, especially
Oct 15, 202517 min read


Intel Brief: China-Philippines Tensions in the South China Sea Simmer
Date: 18/09/2025 (12:00 UTC+2) Where? South China Sea: Scarborough Shoal Who’s involved? China, Philippines What happened? On...
Sep 18, 20255 min read


Beijing’s Reach: How China Prepares for War
Gregorio Albini Introduction For decades, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has maintained its claim over the Republic of China...
Jul 15, 202516 min read


Intel Brief: Houthi Attacks on Commercial Vessels in Red Sea
Date: 09/07/2025 Where? Red Sea; 51 NM off the coast of Hodeidah, Yemeni coast. What happened? On 06/07/2025 , the MV Magic Seas ...
Jul 9, 20253 min read


Update XII: Situation in the Middle East
Date: 27/06/2025 Where: Middle East, particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Syria, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE Who’s involved:...
Jun 27, 20253 min read


Update XI: Situation in the Middle East
No exchange of attacks between Israel and Iran took place between 25 and 26 June, suggesting armed confrontation between them has subsided.
Jun 26, 20253 min read


Update IX: Situation in the Middle East
Date: 24/06/2025 Where: Middle East, particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Syria, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE Who’s involved:...
Jun 24, 20256 min read


Update VIII: Situation in the Middle East
Date: 23/06/2025 Where: Middle East, particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria Who’s involved: Israel, Iran, United States,...
Jun 23, 20255 min read


Update VII: Situation in the Middle East
Areas of US (yellow), Israeli (blue) and Iranian (green) targeting between 21 and 22 June 2025 Date: 22/06/2025 Where: Middle East,...
Jun 23, 20255 min read


Update VI: Situation in the Middle East
Date: 20/06/2025 Where: Middle East, particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria Who’s involved: Israel, Iran, United States In...
Jun 20, 20256 min read


Update V: Situation in the Middle East
Areas of major targeting (blue) between 18 and 19 June 2025 Date: 19/06/2025 Where: Middle East, particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel,...
Jun 19, 20256 min read


Update IV: Situation in the Middle East
Date: 18/06/2025 Areas of major targeting in blue Where: Middle East, particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria Who’s...
Jun 18, 20255 min read


Update: Situation in the Middle East
Date: 13/06/2025 Where: Middle East, particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria Who’s involved: Israel, Iran ...
Jun 13, 20256 min read


Intel Brief: Risk of Serious Escalation in Middle East Threatens the Maritime and Aviation Sector
Date: 21/05/2025 Where: • Israel, Ben Gurion Airport (TLV/LLBG), Iran, Strait of Hormuz Who’s involved: • Israel, Houthis (Yemen),...
May 21, 20253 min read



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