Update IX: Situation in the Middle East

alessia988
Jun 24
6 min read

Date: 24/06/2025

Where: Middle East, particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Syria, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE

Who’s involved: Israel, Iran, United States, Qatar, Iraq

Areas of Israeli (blue), Iranian (green) and unknown targeting (grey) between 23 and 24 June 2025

Key developments

Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar came under aerial attack by Iran at around 22:00 Qatari time on 23 June 2025, with ballistic missiles targeting the base, which hosts the largest concentration of US, UK, and Qatari military assets in the region. No injuries or major damage were reported, as Qatari authorities stated that nearly all incoming missiles were intercepted.
The US, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Palestinian Authority, Bahrain, Kuwait and UAE all officially condemned Iran’s attack on Qatar as a violation of sovereignty, while France stated their “solidarity with Qatar” amid the attacks. China called on the parties to show restraint stating that the US attack on Iran sent “wrong signals to the world,” while Turkey, Russia and Pakistan refrained from officially condemning the attack.
Early on 24 June (Iran-Israeli time), both Tel Aviv and Tehran had officially acknowledged that a ceasefire was in place, following a similar statement by US president Trump.
Between 23 and 24 June 2025, Israel experienced an increased number of air raid alerts during the morning, indicating the most intense wave of ballistic missile strikes from Iran in the past ten days. These attacks reportedly killed at least four Israelis, following Israel’s strike the previous day on IRGC facilities, where Israel claimed “hundreds” were killed. Additionally, Taji military base in Iraq was reportedly targeted by an unknown side, according to Iraqi officials, in what was the first time Iraqi soil has been targeted during the confrontation.
Israeli officials reported targeting IRGC facilities, Evin Prison in Tehran, and ballistic missile launchers in western Iran using at least 15 fighter jets. Strikes also hit Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon’s Jezzine and Nabatieh areas. Israeli attacks on Iran during the time period of this report appear to have decreased, compared to previous days.
Iran launched ballistic missiles and UAVs targeting northeastern Israel (Golan Heights), Be'er Sheva, Jerusalem, Haifa, and Tel Aviv on unspecified targets, with residential areas reported as targeted, killing at least eight, in what appears to be one of the largest attacks since the start of the conflict.
Airspace over Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE was temporarily closed during the night of 23 to 24 June, and has since reopened at the time of this report. Hundreds of flights were cancelled or delayed throughout 24 June at airports in Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, the UAE, and particularly Qatar.
Information on the precise damage from US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, as well as Iran’s attack on the Qatari base hosting US and UK forces, remains limited. There have been no reports of changes in radioactivity levels, nor any announced US retaliation for Iran’s attack on the Qatari base.
No attacks on maritime vessels by Houthi forces have been reported in the past 24 hours. Despite speculation about a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab remains largely uninterrupted. GPS jamming and interference continue in the Persian Gulf, particularly near the Emirati coast and the Strait of Hormuz.
At the time of writing, there is no indication that US military or naval vessels have withdrawn from the Middle East. The USS Carl Vinson, USS Nimitz, over 18 warships, and around 100 military aircraft remain within striking distance of Iran.

Given the unprecedented level of volatility and the risk of unintended escalation, it is strongly advised to avoid all non-essential operations (ground and overflight) to the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia until at least 25 June. The current advice to avoid any operations in or over Israel, Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon remains in effect.

Context:

The confrontation between Iran and Israel has escalated into one of the most direct and dangerous in their history, setting off a chain of events with serious consequences for the region. The crisis began on 13 June 2025, when Israel launched large-scale strikes against key Iranian military and strategic sites, including the residences of senior officials and scientists. Iran responded with hypersonic and ballistic missiles, as well as UAVs, with both sides expanding their attacks to target energy infrastructure and government buildings. Israeli air operations have penetrated deep into Iranian territory, crossing Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi airspace. At least 500 people have been killed or injured on both sides, including many civilians in major cities. The international response has been divided, with the United States and some European governments backing Israel, while China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, Pakistan and Afghanistan condemned Israel’s initial strikes. Following US attacks on Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan on 22 June, Tehran launched missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which hosts the largest contingent of US forces in the region. Regional states condemned the attack, while China, Russia, Pakistan and Turkey refrained from issuing formal condemnation.

Following Iran’s attacks on the Qatari airbase, on 24 June US President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. However, hostilities have continued. Airspace over Iran, Israel, Iraq, Syria and Jordan remains closed or heavily restricted, while maritime traffic continues despite increasing GPS interference near the Strait of Hormuz and the Israeli coast. Both countries have imposed media blackouts since 17 June, though amateur footage has revealed widespread destruction caused by the strikes. Two US carrier strike groups remain deployed in the Middle East, comprising around 18 warships and 100 aircraft, alongside reports of Chinese naval vessels in the Persian Gulf. The confrontation between Israel and Iran has led to the highest level of tension in the region in years, with tens of thousands of foreign nationals stranded in Israel, Iran and neighboring countries due to airspace closures and flight cancellations. Evacuation efforts have proved challenging, with numerous countries dispatching special flights to repatriate their citizens. Given the intensity of the attacks, neither side appears willing to engage in negotiations — particularly Iran, which now seems increasingly determined to continue its nuclear energy program, raising concerns that this could ultimately result in the acquisition of a nuclear weapon, despite official denials.

Looking ahead:

Despite announcements of a ceasefire, the situation between Iran and Israel remains highly volatile, with no clear indications of de-escalation. The United States and Israel have both signaled ongoing concern regarding Iran’s leadership. The US Vice President has stated that Iran will remain a national security priority for at least the next three years. In parallel, the Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, has indicated that it no longer views Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, as a legitimate figure. Reza Pahlavi, son of the former Shah, has appeared more frequently in US media and alongside Israeli officials, calling for changes in Iran’s leadership during televised statements. The current tensions could place Iran at the center of a broader regional crisis with significant consequences for stability in the Middle East. For these reasons, it is still strongly advised to avoid all non-essential operations (ground and overflight) to the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. The current advice to avoid any operations in or over Israel, Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon remains in effect.

Looking ahead, the situation is expected to continue affecting civilian air travel, with further flight cancellations and diversions likely as regional airspace restrictions persist. Airlines may face higher operational costs, complex rerouting, insurance challenges, and increased difficulty in organizing evacuation flights. The maritime sector also faces risks: while shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab remain open, renewed Houthi attacks on commercial vessels or potential restrictions by Iran could disrupt global trade. Maritime operators may encounter higher insurance premiums, enhanced security requirements, and operational delays. Any further escalation — particularly if Iran advances its nuclear program and obtains a nuclear weapon — could prompt other regional states, such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, to pursue similar capabilities, increasing the risk of an arms race. Without meaningful diplomatic engagement, the likelihood of wider conflict and regional instability remains significant. At the time of writing, numerous countries, including the US and some EU member states have officially advised their citizens to immediately leave the affected areas due to limited consular reach and security threats.