Update VI: Situation in the Middle East

alessia988
Jun 20
6 min read

Date: 20/06/2025

Where: Middle East, particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria

Who’s involved: Israel, Iran, United States

In the image below: Areas of major Israeli (blue) and Iranian (green) targeting between 19 and 20 June 2025

Key developments

Israeli authorities reported that 20 fighter aircraft carried out attacks on Iranian assets in Azatshehr, Gorgan, Tehran and the industrial district of Rasht, with Iranian anti-air defenses reportedly intercepting some aircraft. Houla and Kfarjouz in southern Lebanon were also targeted by UAVs countering Hezbollah activity according to Israeli officials.
Iran reported launching a “16th wave” of ballistic missiles during the morning hours of 20 June, targeting what was described as a cybersecurity centre in Beer Sheva and Nevatim airbase. It also launched at least three UAVs towards central Israel and the Haifa area, and claimed to have downed two Israeli UAVs, including one near the border with Iraq in the Pol-e Dokhtar area.
Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei stated that the US “has now entered the scene” in reference to the ongoing confrontation with Israel. Israel’s defense minister responded by saying that Khamenei “can no longer be allowed to exist,” signaling a shift in objectives from the initial focus on nuclear facilities.
A White House spokeswoman stated that President Trump is expected to make a decision on Iran “within the next two weeks,” adding that Iran had failed to comply with Trump’s 60-day deadline set in April, which expired on the day of Israel’s attack on 13 June. This has fueled further speculation about potential US involvement in the ongoing Iran-Israel confrontation.
Israel targeted another of Iran’s heavy water nuclear reactors at Arak on 19 June, reportedly damaging part of the facility.
Increased activity of military aircraft, particularly from the US, has been observed in flights between the US and Europe as well as the eastern Mediterranean. On 18 June seven aircraft were identified parked on the tarmac at Crete’s Souda Airbase, believed to be a mix of C-130 transports and KC-135 Stratotankers, with C-17 Globemaster transport aircraft also confirmed to have used the base for layovers around the same time. This heightened activity points to coordinated efforts aimed at strengthening Israel’s defense capabilities.
Around 30 maritime vessels, including container ships and tankers, were observed in a circular holding pattern off northern Israel near the Tamar maritime oil and gas field. This is presumed to be part of a floating production storage and offloading procedure, as port operations in Israel may be restricted during the ongoing crisis.
Iranian officials reported that they had foiled an assassination attempt against Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who was due to fly to Geneva for negotiations on 20 June, allegedly organized by Israeli operatives. This suggests Israel may be broadening its targets from strictly military sites to political figures.
US carriers American Airlines and United Airlines will suspend flights to certain Middle Eastern destinations, including Doha and Dubai, while Delta Airlines has suspended flights to Tel Aviv. Air France, KLM and Air Canada have also cancelled services to regional hubs such as Dubai and Riyadh.
A third US aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, is heading to the Mediterranean, bringing a third carrier strike group within reach of the Middle East. The USS Carl Vinson is already deployed in the region and the USS Nimitz is on its way from southeast Asia, surpassing the carrier presence seen during the 2011 intervention in Libya. In total this could place around 18 warships and more than 100 US military aircraft within striking distance of Iran.
Internet access in Iran remains restricted amid the ongoing conflict while in Israel authorities have further tightened controls on what can be filmed.
The airspace over both Iran and Israel remains closed due to the threat from missiles and military flights in the region. It is advisable to avoid flying through or operating in the airspace of Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon at any level. In addition, with possible US involvement in the conflict, the airspace over Kuwait, the UAE and northern Oman is considered to be at increased risk.

Context:

The confrontation between Iran and Israel has escalated into one of the most direct and dangerous in their history, setting off a chain of events with significant regional consequences. The crisis began on 13 June 2025 when Israel launched large-scale strikes against key Iranian military and strategic sites, including the residences of senior figures and scientists. Iran responded swiftly with hypersonic and ballistic missiles and UAVs, as both sides expanded their targets to include energy infrastructure and government facilities. Israeli air operations have continued deep into Iranian territory, crossing Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi airspace, while hundreds have been killed or injured on both sides, many of them civilians caught in strikes on major urban centres. Airspace between Iran and Israel, including over Iraq, Syria and Jordan, remains closed or heavily restricted, while maritime traffic has largely continued despite growing GPS interference near the Strait of Hormuz and off the Israeli coast. Since 17 June both sides have imposed media blackouts, with Israel reportedly barring foreign journalists and Iran significantly limiting internet access. The international community remains divided, with the US and some European governments backing Israel, while China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, Pakistan and Afghanistan have condemned Israel’s initial strikes.

The build-up of military forces signals growing risks, with two US carrier strike groups, led by the USS Carl Vinson and the USS Nimitz, joined by B-52 bombers at Diego Garcia, reflecting a high state of readiness to support Israel should the conflict intensify. US military transport and refueling aircraft are actively using airbases in Pafos, Cyprus and Crete (Souda Airbase) as staging points for flights to Israel, Jordan and Iraq. Satellite imagery from 18 June identified at least seven large aircraft resembling C-130s, and flight tracking shows KC-135 Stratotankers entering Iraqi airspace from Jordan and returning. This growing activity points to increasing signs of US involvement. On 19 June the White House confirmed that President Trump is expected to decide on possible action against Iran within the next two weeks, noting that Iran failed to comply with Trump’s 60-day deadline that expired on the day of Israel’s strikes, adding to speculation about direct US engagement in the conflict. Airspace over Kuwait, the UAE and northern Oman is now seen as higher risk due to the presence of US bases and their potential as targets for Iranian retaliation. The overall security environment remains volatile with no clear signs of de-escalation in the near future.

Looking ahead:

The security outlook for airline, maritime operations and overall regional stability remains deeply fragile as the Iran-Israel confrontation intensifies. Airspace closures over Iran, Israel and parts of neighboring countries, along with widespread flight cancellations and delays, are expected to persist as missile exchanges and military activity escalate. The deployment of further US air defenses, carrier strike groups and surveillance aircraft, combined with the presence of Chinese military vessels in the Persian Gulf, signals a sustained high-risk environment for civil aviation. GPS interference in critical corridors like the eastern Mediterranean and the Strait of Hormuz adds to navigational hazards for air and maritime traffic. Airline operators will likely need to keep rerouting or suspending flights through affected areas, while shipping companies must exercise greater caution near military zones and GPS disruption hotspots. The recent collision between the tankers MV Front Eagle and MV Adalynn on 17 June may be an early sign of how such interference can contribute to serious maritime incidents.

Israeli air defenses continue to face heavy strain, with reports and videos showing failed interceptions of Iranian missiles striking key targets in Tel Aviv and other locations during daylight on 19 June. This raises serious concerns about the resilience of Israeli systems and their ability to cope with sustained attacks. In response, the US is reportedly sending THAAD batteries and additional specialists, while open-source data points to increased US air movements into the region, suggesting quiet military involvement. The growing build-up of forces, including three US carrier strike groups, a UK carrier and Chinese surveillance ships, reflects rising tensions that could soon draw in wider powers. Speculation that only the US could destroy Iran’s nuclear site at Fordow is increasing pressure on President Trump, raising the risk of US strikes and, in turn, Iranian retaliation against American military targets, which would further endanger regional airspace. Reports of Israeli UAVs possibly operating from Azerbaijani airspace, if confirmed, could also extend the conflict’s impact into the Caucasus, disrupting another vital flight corridor. Taken together, these developments point towards an escalating conflict with increasing likelihood of direct US-Iran hostilities and unpredictable consequences for the wider region.