Update: Situation in the Middle East

laure7549
Jun 13
6 min read

Date: 13/06/2025

Where: Middle East, particularly Iran,

Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria

Who’s involved: Israel, Iran

Areas of major Israeli targeting in blue

What happened:

In the early hours of 13 June 2025, the Israeli military launched extensive airstrikes on multiple targets across Iran, including military bases, radar installations, surface-to-air missile systems, a nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, missile production sites, and the residences of senior Iranian officials and scientists.
According to official sources, more than 200 aircraft were involved in the operation—most of them believed to be unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)—marking the largest Israeli strike of its kind against Iran, potentially signalling an ambition to achieve regime change.
Iranian state media reported 78 fatalities and 329 injuries as a result of the airstrikes on Tehran, with the capital’s Mehrabad International Airport also targeted, leading to the suspension of all flights.
Following the attacks, Iran raised the symbolic red flag of revenge above the Jamkaran Mosque in Qom. However, no missile launches have been confirmed so far. Iran has, however, launched 100 drones towards Israel via Iraqi and Syrian airspace. Earlier in the day, several of these drones breached Jordanian airspace, prompting Jordanian forces to intercept them—an action which may now expose Jordan to the risk of Iranian retaliation.
Israel has continued its strikes throughout the day, targeting various locations across Iran. Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that operations will persist until Israel’s objectives are achieved. Simultaneously with Iran’s drone deployment, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) initiated a second wave of attacks.
Confirmed targets include a missile production facility in Shiraz, an underground military complex in Kermanshah, residential areas and the international airport in Tabriz, the Natanz nuclear site, explosions in Eslamshahr reportedly aimed at government officials, nuclear facilities in Arak and Fordow, and potential strategic assets at or near Bushehr, among other sites.
Unconfirmed reports surfaced regarding a potential radiation leak at the Natanz nuclear facility. However, Iranian officials have stated that the issue appears to be limited to an internal leak. Should a leak outside the facility be confirmed, it would likely involve uranium hexafluoride (UF₆), a compound used in centrifuges. Although UF₆ is not highly radioactive itself, it poses health risks when inhaled due to its reaction to air forming toxic uranyl fluoride (UO₂F₂) and hydrogen fluoride. Such a leak could therefore contaminate surrounding areas and pose health risks to nearby individuals, but it would not constitute a large-scale nuclear incident.
A global activist-led march from Egypt to Gaza, scheduled from 12 to 16 June, has already triggered significant disruption at Cairo International Airport (CAI/HECA) and across parts of the city, following the detention and deportation of participants by Egyptian authorities. The next phase of the march, planned between Arish and Gaza on 15–16 June, is expected to escalate tensions, likely prompting increased surveillance and security activity across the Sinai Peninsula. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Katz has called on Egypt to halt the march, warning that if Egyptian authorities fail to do so, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will take whatever measures necessary to prevent participants from entering Gaza.

Context:

In the early hours of 13 June 2025, Israel initiated a large-scale aerial assault, dubbed Operation Rising Lion, targeting what it identified as key strategic locations across Iran. These included military installations, missile infrastructure, and the nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz. According to Israeli sources, the operation involved more than 200 fighter jets and resulted in the reported deaths of Iran’s military Chief of Staff, the commander of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, a senior official at the Khatam Al Anbiya base, and five top nuclear scientists.

In retaliation, Iran launched over 100 drones towards Israel, many of which traversed Iraqi and Syrian airspace, with several reportedly breaching Jordanian airspace—prompting interceptions by Jordanian defence forces. Around the same time, Israel is believed to have launched a second wave of strikes against Iran, demonstrating apparent air superiority over Syria, Iraq, and potentially parts of Iranian airspace. There are unconfirmed reports suggesting that aerial engagements may have involved Israeli, Turkish, Jordanian, Saudi, French and British aircraft, although the UK has publicly denied any involvement in the operation.

Analysis:

An elevated threat of missile and drone strikes from both Israel and Iran, as well as affiliated groups such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, remains highly likely. Given the small geographical size of Israel, any retaliatory attacks could have significant impact, particularly if they spill into densely populated urban areas.
Current high alert levels, combined with the possibility of counterstrikes by either Israel or the United States, increase the risk of a broader regional conflict. However, most Gulf states have so far limited their response to formal condemnations of Israeli actions, showing little willingness to engage directly.
The Israeli offensive is not expected to conclude on 13 June, especially in light of Prime Minister Netanyahu's stated intention to continue operations until strategic objectives are achieved—a process that may take several days or even weeks, particularly if more actors become involved. Retaliatory drone or missile strikes by Iranian proxies are anticipated, especially from Yemen and southern Lebanon, targeting Israeli interests or territory.
The continuation of hostilities raises the risk of conflict spillover into neighbouring countries, placing additional strain on regional airspace security and increasing the risk to civilian and commercial aviation. With the United States expected to defend Israel in the event of a large-scale Iranian response, there is growing concern that the conflict could escalate further and persist over an extended period.
Israel is likely to maintain offensive momentum in the coming days in an effort to disrupt or pre-empt any Iranian countermeasures, aiming to prevent Tehran from regrouping or mounting an effective retaliation.

Implications for air travel

Airspace over Iran, Iraq, Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria remains effectively closed, with flight tracking data showing a continued absence of commercial aircraft. These closures are a direct result of ongoing missile exchanges and the high risk of further strikes between Iran and Israel, making overflight operations in these regions unsafe.
As of the time of reporting, Iran has not yet launched a significant retaliatory strike against Israel, despite earlier threats. Such action could still take place later in the day or at a time of Iran’s choosing, contributing to uncertainty around the duration and scope of current airspace restrictions.
Major international airports in Beirut, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Jeddah, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar continue to operate, though they are experiencing considerable delays in both arrivals and departures. Passengers are being advised to check with their airlines for the latest updates and rebooking options due to the disruption caused by regional airspace closures.
Jordan has revised its airspace restrictions to allow limited flight operations, but only with prior authorisation. Aircraft must enter via waypoint GENEX and exit through TULEP. In parallel, Egypt’s Ministry of Civil Aviation has placed Cairo International Airport and all national airports on high alert, anticipating potential emergency developments that may impact regional air traffic flows.

Implications for maritime routes

Maritime traffic in the region appears to be operating with relative normality at the time of writing; however, a prolonged conflict—lasting weeks rather than days—could lead to significant disruptions, particularly around key maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Bab al-Mandab. These routes are critical for global energy and commercial shipping, and any sustained instability could severely impact maritime logistics.
At approximately 06:00 local time in the Persian Gulf, an unidentified vessel reported abnormal Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) readings, placing it at an incorrect location. The Maritime Security Center Indian Ocean (MSCIO) has indicated this may have been caused by radioelectronic interference, raising concerns about the safety and reliability of navigational systems in the area.
While Houthi forces in Yemen have not officially stated an intention to resume targeting vessels associated with Israeli-aligned nations or operators, the likelihood of such actions increases significantly if the conflict between Iran and Israel continues to escalate. The group has previously targeted commercial shipping in regional waters and may view renewed hostilities as justification for further attacks.
Meanwhile, maritime activity in Israeli waters has reportedly come to a halt, with vessels grounded and port operations possibly suspended as a precautionary measure amid the heightened security threat.

Expectations and recommendations:

Companies are advised to strengthen travel risk assessments and ensure internal security briefings are regularly updated. It is essential to maintain fully operable communication channels with both stakeholders and employees, particularly those in or near the affected region.
Airlines should coordinate closely with IATA and relevant national aviation authorities, monitoring real-time threats and ensuring the wellbeing of flight crews. Route viability must be reassessed continually, with close attention paid to regional NOTAMs—particularly from Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia—for updates on airspace restrictions and routing guidance.
Maritime operators should avoid high-risk waters and develop contingency plans for rerouting in the event of disruptions to established maritime corridors.
Given the volatile and rapidly evolving nature of the conflict, all operations in Iranian, Israeli, Jordanian, and Iraqi airspace should remain suspended. Additionally, due to heightened security concerns, flights in and over Syrian (OSTT/Damascus FIR), Israeli (/Tel Aviv FIR), Lebanese (OLBB/Beirut FIR), and Jordanian (OJAC/Amman FIR) airspace should also be halted until further notice.
Organisations and individuals in the region should remain in close contact with their respective embassies and monitor reliable news sources and official advisories for the latest developments. Proactive situational awareness is critical to ensuring safety and preparedness in this high-risk environment.