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Update XII: Situation in the Middle East

  • gregorio46
  • Jun 27
  • 3 min read

Date: 27/06/2025 


Where:  Middle East, particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Syria, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE


Who’s involved: Israel, Iran, United States









Key developments

  • No exchange of attacks between Israel and Iran took place between 25 and 26 June, suggesting armed confrontation between them has subsided. 

  • Airspace over eastern Iran has been officially opened for commercial flights, although the western part of the country remains closed.

  • Iran’s Guardian Council ratified a bill by parliament suspending the country’s cooperation with the IAEA, stating the reason as US and Israeli attacks on its nuclear facilities. 

  • Israel reopened its airspace on 24 June, and airports continue to operate. Repatriation flights are underway, and travel restrictions have been lifted. National carriers have resumed operations, though most foreign airlines are extending flight suspensions through summer. 

  • Airspace in Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Qatar and the broader Middle East remains open.

  • No serious maritime security threats have been identified in the Middle East, and shipping lanes remain operational at standard capacity. GNSS interference over the Persian Gulf, especially near the UAE coastline and around the Strait of Hormuz, appears to have decreased. 


Although risks are getting lower with each passing day the ceasefire holds,  the situation still remains uncertain at the time of writing. All non-essential operations (ground and overflight) to the affected areas, including Israel, Iraq, Syria and Iran, should be avoided.


Context

The Iran-Israel conflict that erupted on 13 June with Israeli strikes on Iranian military and leadership targets quickly escalated into one of the most serious confrontations between the two countries, prompting Iranian retaliation with UAVs, ballistic and hypersonic missiles, drone swarms and energy infrastructure attacks that caused over 500 casualties, including civilians. Israeli airstrikes, conducted with US and some European support, reached deep into Iran, while China, Russia and several Gulf states condemned the attacks. Following a US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities on 22 June and Iran’s retaliatory attack on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar on 23 June, a ceasefire was announced by President Trump on 24 June. No further exchanges occurred on June 25 or 26, suggesting that hostilities have paused. Israel reopened its airspace on June 24, and airports are fully operational, with repatriation flights ongoing. However, most foreign airlines are maintaining suspensions through the summer. Iranian airspace remains largely closed, except for the east, while airspace over Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Qatar, and the broader region remains open. Iran’s Guardian Council ratified a bill suspending cooperation with the IAEA in response to the strikes, raising the risk of renewed escalation. Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al Mandab continues at normal capacity, and GNSS interference in the Persian Gulf, particularly near the UAE and the Strait of Hormuz, appears to have decreased.


Looking ahead

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council recently ratified a decision to halt cooperation with the IAEA, raising the risk of retaliatory strikes by the US or Israel. While a fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel has enabled the reopening of airspace across much of the Middle East, including over Israel, Iran (excluding parts of the west), Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE, tensions remain high. Airlines are still navigating the aftermath of the 12-day conflict, facing elevated operational costs and complex evacuation planning. Though the US claims to have “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, uncertainty persist on the true efficacy of US strikes, with doubts over the destruction of Iran’s stock of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) and reports that the Iranian authorities had moved it to unknown sites before the first strikes by Israel, questions also persist on the damage to nuclear centrifuges which some US intelligence officials believe are still “largely intact”. These reports would suggest that the strikes only delayed the program a few months. If this is the case, the attacks have likely pushed Tehran to accelerate the production of nuclear weapons, with Israeli officials indicating military action could resume. Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al Mandab remains active but vulnerable to Houthi strikes, Iranian interference and GNSS disruption. Without meaningful diplomatic progress, the region faces a heightened risk of renewed conflict and a broader arms race in the coming weeks.




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