Update IV: Situation in the Middle East

alessia988
12 minutes ago
5 min read

Date: 18/06/2025

Where: Middle East, particularly Iran,

Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria

Who’s involved: Israel, Iran, United States

Key developments

Attacks between Israel and Iran continued between 17 and 18 June, but with less intensity than during the first two days. Israel reportedly targeted the Imam Huseyin University vicinity and IRGC offices in Tehran and Iran hit areas in Haifa and Tel Aviv with what official Iranian sources claim as 440 missiles and rockets during the evening hours and night. Jordanian airspace was confirmed as having been used for at least one of these strikes.
The United States’ President Trump issued a post on social media insinuating direct US participation alongside Israel against Iran. In the post he stated, “We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now” referring to Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, while in a subsequent post immediately afterwards he wrote, “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” Additionally, credible media reports state that Trump is considering military options against Iran.
Credible open-source information suggests the United States is deploying at least two dozen military aircraft at bases in Europe, among them F-22 and F-35 fighters, KC-135 Stratotankers, C-17 Globemasters, C-130 Hercules and P-8 Poseidons, some of which have flown towards the eastern Mediterranean, possibly supporting Israel.
The Chinese embassy is reportedly evacuating personnel in Tehran, and the Thai embassy is seeking to evacuate all citizens in Iran, while others have left through land borders, particularly with Azerbaijan to the north. The UK and other European countries are advising against all travel to Iran, as airspace remains closed and people are being evacuated, particularly through Armenian and Azeri land borders.
Internet traffic in Iran has seen a significant reduction over the past day, suggesting local authorities are seeking to limit access to information for security reasons. Media blackouts continue, with less amateur footage emerging from Israel compared to the first three days of the conflict.
Ben Gurion International Airport (LLBG/TLV) remains closed, with operations suspended according to official notification from airport authorities. Other airports in the region are operational but experiencing numerous cancellations and delays, particularly at Beirut-Rafic Hariri International (OLBA/BEY), Qatar’s Hamad International (OTHH/DOH), and Amman’s Queen Alia International (OJAI/AMM). Airports in Bahrain and the UAE appear to be operating with minimal disruption.
The airspace over both Iran and Israel remains closed due to the threat of missiles and military flights in the area. EASA recommends not to operate in Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Lebanon at all levels.
Two tankers, the Bermuda-flagged Adalynn and the Liberian-flagged Front Eagle, collided in waters near the Strait of Hormuz, approximately 26 nautical miles from the eastern UAE coastline near Fujairah. The UAE National Guard intervened to evacuate 24 crew from the Adalynn, which was set ablaze by the collision. While the cause of the incident is being investigated, the Front Eagle had reported interference with its geopositioning system on 15 June.
There are continuing indications of GPS interference in the eastern Mediterranean and Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz, with the potential to affect flights and maritime lanes.
Amid indications of a possible US intervention in Iran, crude oil prices have once again increased by around 4%, with both Brent North Sea Crude and WTI seeing rises of more than 4% over the past day.

Context:

The conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated into one of the most direct and intense confrontations in their history. The crisis began with a large-scale Israeli strike on 13 June 2025 targeting key Iranian military and strategic sites, including the homes of senior figures and scientists. This prompted swift Iranian retaliation with hypersonic and ballistic missiles and UAVs. Israel has continued air operations deep into Iran, flying through Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi airspace, with both sides increasingly targeting energy infrastructure as well as military and government facilities. The fighting has caused significant casualties, drawn in wider geopolitical actors and led to airspace closures, flight disruptions and a surge in oil prices. A media blackout between 16 and 17 June appeared to limit unofficial reporting, suggesting efforts to suppress information, particularly on social media. The airspace over Iran, Israel and Iraq remains closed, with ongoing delays and electronic interference affecting navigation. Russia and Turkey condemned Israel’s actions while the US reinforced its military presence, fueling speculation of direct involvement. Several embassies, including those of the UK and France, have urged citizens to leave Israel as governments update travel warnings across the region.

US President Trump posted on social media suggesting direct US involvement alongside Israel. He wrote “We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now” referring to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, followed by “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” Credible reports suggest Trump is weighing military options. Open sources indicate at least two dozen US military aircraft, including F-22s, F-35s, KC-135s, C-17s, C-130s and P-8s, have deployed to European bases, with some moving towards the eastern Mediterranean. Signs are growing that Washington may support Israel’s airstrikes. US officials say assets are for defensive purposes, referencing 40,000 troops at over 20 regional bases. The USS Nimitz is expected in the region within a week, joining the USS Carl Vinson, while B-52 bombers have been sent to Diego Garcia. US forces appear on high alert given the scale of deployments.

Looking ahead:

Several scenarios could unfold as the crisis deepens. The most concerning is a major escalation, with growing signs that Washington may become directly involved in armed conflict against Iran in support of Israel’s ongoing airstrikes. While US defense officials insist that their military deployments are for defensive purposes, referring to the roughly 40,000 US troops stationed at more than 20 bases across the region, the scale of the build-up suggests preparations for possible direct action. The USS Nimitz is expected to enter the region within a week from South-East Asia, joining the USS Carl Vinson already in position, while B-52 bombers were sent to Diego Garcia in May. US Central Command and US Air Forces Central Command appear to be on high alert given the number of assets now deployed. A wider war could draw in Hezbollah, militias in Iraq and Syria, and perhaps Gulf states, leading to further attacks on infrastructure, severe disruption to energy supplies, and significant civilian harm. Maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz and Suez Canal could face major risks from missile strikes or interference, while air travel would continue to suffer from closed airspace as military operations continue, resulting in widespread cancellations, rerouting and rising operational costs.

Alternatively, diplomacy may gain ground, with actors such as Qatar, Oman, Turkey, Russia or China, attempting to broker a ceasefire or de-escalation to avert full-scale war. This could involve halting attacks on energy infrastructure and transport corridors, reopening airspace or creating safe maritime and aviation routes. However, such efforts face considerable challenges given the scale of hostilities and political pressures on both sides. A prolonged stand-off is also possible, marked by continued airstrikes, cyber operations, proxy clashes and maritime incidents, leaving the region in a state of enduring instability. In this scenario, persistent threats to shipping and aviation would keep global markets volatile and place sustained pressure on governments and commercial operators. Reports and overall developments suggest the next 24 -48 hours will be critical for determining the outcome of the confrontation, whether the crisis spirals into broader war or stabilizes into an uneasy containment.