Update XI: Situation in the Middle East
- alessia988
- Jun 26
- 3 min read
Date: 26/06/2025
Where: Middle East, particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Syria, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE
Who’s involved: Israel, Iran, United States
Key developments
No exchange of attacks between Israel and Iran took place between 25 and 26 June, suggesting armed confrontation between them has subsided.
Airspace over eastern Iran has opened for commercial flights, although the west of the country continues to be closed.
Israel reopened its airspace on 24 June, with airports now operating at full capacity. Repatriation flights are in progress, and restrictions on inbound and outbound travel have been lifted. While national carriers have resumed operations, most foreign airlines have extended their flight suspensions through the summer.
Airspace in Syria, Jordan, Iraq, Qatar and the broader Middle East remains open.
No Houthi attacks on maritime vessels have been reported in the past 24 hours. Despite speculation about a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, maritime traffic through both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab remains largely unaffected. However, GPS jamming persists in the Persian Gulf, especially near the UAE coastline and around the Strait of Hormuz.
The US aircraft carriers USS Nimitz and USS Carl Vinson remain deployed in the Middle East, supported by at least two guided-missile destroyers in the Red Sea and five in the eastern Mediterranean. In total, more than a dozen US warships are operating in the region, along with approximately 100 aircraft stationed on the carriers.
Although risks are getting lower with each day the ceasefire holds, the situation still remains uncertain at the time of writing. All non-essential operations (ground and overflight) to the affected areas, including Israel, Iraq, Syria and Iran should be avoided.
Context
The recent Iran-Israel conflict, which erupted on 13 June with Israeli strikes on Iranian military and leadership targets, quickly escalated into one of the most dangerous confrontations between the two countries. Iran responded with UAVs, ballistic and hypersonic missiles, drones and attacks on energy infrastructure, resulting in over 500 casualties, including civilians. Israeli air operations penetrated deep into Iran via regional airspace, drawing support from the US and some European nations, while others, such as China, Russia, and several Gulf states, condemned the attacks. Following a US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities on 22 June, and Iran’s retaliatory attack on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar on 23 June, a ceasefire was brokered by former President Trump and announced on 24 June. Although Israel reportedly launched a final strike just before the truce took effect, major hostilities have since paused. As of 26 June, airspace over Israel, Jordan, Syria and Iraq has reopened, though many foreign carriers continue with flight suspensions into Israel. Iranian airspace is still mostly restricted, with only eastern regions partially open. Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab remains active despite ongoing GPS jamming near the Strait. Meanwhile, regional tensions remain high amid a significant military build-up, unresolved questions around Iran’s nuclear program, and continued disruption to civilian air travel.
Looking ahead
The ceasefire between Iran and Israel has created a narrow opening for de-escalation, prompting the reopening of regional airspace across much of the Middle East, including over Israel, Iran (with the exception of parts of the west), Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE. Airlines are still adjusting to the aftermath of the 10-day conflict, facing elevated operational costs and challenges in coordinating potential evacuation efforts. Although the US claims to have inflicted damage on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, concerns persist that Tehran may continue pursuing a nuclear deterrent. Israeli officials have signaled that military action could resume, putting the fragile ceasefire at risk. Meanwhile, maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab remains active but exposed to potential Houthi attacks and Iranian disruption, with ongoing GPS jamming in the area. In the absence of meaningful diplomatic progress, the region remains at high risk of renewed conflict and a broader arms race in the weeks ahead.
