Update VIII: Situation in the Middle East

alessia988
Jun 23
5 min read

Date: 23/06/2025

Where: Middle East, particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria

Who’s involved: Israel, Iran, United States, Houthi forces

Approximate areas of Israeli (blue), Iranian (green) and Houthi (red)

targeting between 22 and 23 June 2025

Key developments

As of 23 June 2025, Iranian authorities have not yet militarily responded to US attacks. Regional governments, along with the EU, Russia, the US and others, have issued statements reflecting their views on the situation.
Israeli officials reported continuing attacks on Iran with around 50 combat aircraft between 22 and 23 June, targeting radar and satellite centers throughout the country, anti-air defenses in Kermanshah, airstrips, underground tunnels, aircraft in “west, east and central Iran”, in addition to targets in Madan, Tehran and Yazd.
Iranian authorities announced having launched a mix of solid and liquid-fuel based ballistic missiles and drones at Israeli targets, including the Khorramshahr-4 and/or a Kheibar Shekan, both considered among the country’s most advanced missile systems. Reports indicate that in the morning of 23 June areas near the Knesset in Jerusalem and a power station in Ashdod were targeted.
On 22 June 2025, at around 02:00 hours local time in Iran, the US carried out aerial attacks on the Fordow and Natanz fuel enrichment plants, and Esfahan’s nuclear technology center with seven B2 bombers deployed from the continental US, an 18 hour flight, deploying a decoy unit flying west over the Pacific. A total of 14 massive ordinance penetrator (MOP) bombs in addition to an unspecified number of Tomahawk missiles on Esfahan reportedly from a nuclear submarine in the Gulf of Oman, in what US officials claimed as a success.
Iranian authorities confirmed the attacks, stating however, that nuclear material had been previously removed from those facilities, and that damage was repairable.
Iranian authorities vowed a “decisive response” against the US for their attacks, not specifying any details. The country’s Minister of Foreign Affairs (MFA) announced that negotiations on their nuclear program are no longer going to take place due to the failure of diplomacy.
At the time of writing, there was no information allowing for an independent assessment of the damage and result of the US attacks on Iran, with some experts casting doubt on whether the US attack accomplished its goal of destroying the targets.
US Vice President J.D. Vance announced that countering Iran’s nuclear program will be on the US agenda for the next three years, stating that previous leaders who started wars in the Middle East were “dumb,” and president Trump on the contrary, is someone “who can accomplish goals.”
The Houthis reported launching a missile at Israel, which in turn reported intercepting a missile over Eilat, in addition to a parliament session being interrupted due to a missile threat.
The aircraft carriers USS Carl Vinson and USS Nimitz are now operating in the US Central Command area of operations, placing around 18 warships and more than 100 US military aircraft within striking distance of Iran. Other US bases in the region may continue on high alert, awaiting a possible attack from Iran.
The airspace over both Iran and Israel remains closed due to the threat posed by missiles and military activity in the region. Major airports in all Gulf states continue to operate, although flight cancellations have been noted in many of them.
The possibility of Iran closing the Straits of Hormuz remains, with the country’s legislators approving its closure, now pending a final approval by the executive body. The US has officially called on China to prevent Tehran from closing the straits, affecting energy markets worldwide.
At the time of writing, there were no clear signs of maritime traffic being disrupted through the Red Sea or the Strait of Hormuz, although the latter could be closed by Iranian authorities in response to US attacks.

Context:

The confrontation between Iran and Israel has escalated into the most direct and dangerous in their history, triggering a chain of events with serious regional consequences. The crisis began on 13 June 2025, when Israel launched large-scale strikes against key Iranian military and strategic sites, including the homes of senior officials and scientists. Iran responded rapidly with hypersonic and ballistic missiles, as well as UAVs, with both sides expanding their attacks to energy infrastructure and government buildings. Israeli air operations have reached deep into Iranian territory, crossing Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi airspace. Hundreds have been killed or injured on both sides, many of them civilians caught in strikes on major cities. Airspace over Iran, Israel, Iraq, Syria and Jordan remains closed or heavily restricted, while maritime traffic has continued despite increasing GPS interference near the Strait of Hormuz and the Israeli coast. Since 17 June, both countries have imposed media blackouts, with Israel reportedly barring foreign journalists and Iran severely limiting internet access. The international response remains divided, with the US and some European governments backing Israel, while China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, Pakistan and Afghanistan have condemned Israel’s initial strikes.

On 22 June 2025, at around 02:00 local time in Iran, the US launched aerial attacks on Iran, likely driven by concerns over a deteriorating situation for Israel. Areas targeted were the Fordow and Natanz fuel enrichment plants, and Esfahan’s nuclear technology center. The operation reportedly involved seven B-2 bombers deployed from the continental US on an 18-hour mission. US officials claimed the operation was a success, while Iranian authorities confirmed the attacks but stated that nuclear material had previously been removed and that the damage was repairable. Tehran had warned that any US attack would trigger strikes on American military assets across the region, but no such retaliation had been observed. The deployment of the USS Nimitz, USS Carl Vinson, B-52 bombers at Diego Garcia, and US aircraft from Cyprus and Crete places significant force within striking distance of Iran. Maritime traffic through the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz has so far continued, although closure of the latter remains a possibility. The situation remains highly volatile, with no sign of de-escalation.

Looking ahead:

The security outlook for aviation, maritime operations and broader regional stability remains highly precarious as the Iran-Israel confrontation deepens, now compounded by direct US involvement. Ongoing airspace closures over Iran, Israel and parts of neighboring countries, alongside widespread flight cancellations and delays, are expected to continue amid intensified missile exchanges and military activity. The deployment of additional US military assets — including carrier strike groups, surveillance aircraft and THAAD batteries — together with the presence of Chinese naval vessels in the Persian Gulf, points to a sustained and elevated risk environment for civil aviation. Increasing GPS interference in key corridors such as the eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz further heightens navigational hazards for both air and maritime traffic. Airlines are likely to maintain rerouting or suspension of flights through affected areas, while shipping operators will need to exercise heightened caution near military zones and GPS disruption hotspots. Renewed Houthi threats to target US vessels in the Red Sea raise the risk of resumed strikes on commercial shipping, with potentially severe consequences for global trade and supply chains.

The intensifying conflict is placing Israeli air defenses under significant strain, with Iranian missile strikes reportedly breaching defenses and hitting key sites in Tel Aviv and elsewhere. The US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have further escalated tensions, signaling a deepening American role in the conflict. The build-up of military forces, including three US carrier strike groups, a UK carrier and Chinese surveillance ships, increases the likelihood of the confrontation expanding to involve other powers. Should exchanges between the US, Iran, Israel and the Houthis intensify, further airspace closures, maritime disruptions and impacts on critical commercial routes across the Middle East, and potentially extending into the Caucasus, are highly likely. It is advisable to avoid flying through or operating in the airspace of Iraq, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon at any altitude and reconsider operations in the Middle East, at least until Iran's response will be clear. The resulting uncertainty poses serious risks for regional security, aviation operations and international trade.