Update V: Situation in the Middle East
- gregorio46
- 9 hours ago
- 6 min read
Date: 19/06/2025
Where: Middle East, particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria
Who’s involved: Israel, Iran, United States
Key developments
Israel and Iran exchanged further attacks between 18 and 19 June, with the Israeli air force targeting reported IRGC offices in Tehran, an airport area near Karaj and airbases in Kermanshah and Tabriz. Unverified reports also suggested that Israel struck an underground bunker where Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was believed to be, though no details about the outcome have emerged.
Iran launched what appear to be new advanced ballistic missiles, likely Sejil or Khorramshahr types, targeting Tel Aviv and Beer Sheva during the morning hours, marking a shift from the usual night-time attacks. The Israeli stock exchange and the diamond exchange in Ramat Gan, one of the world’s largest markets, were either struck directly or suffered serious collateral damage, along with a reported IDF intelligence building and a nearby hospital in Beer Sheva, as well as several other targets.
Iran’s supreme leader made his first public appearance since the start of the conflict, warning that any US strikes would “inflict irreparable damage on them” and stressing that his country would not yield to Trump’s call for surrender. His comments came after Trump stated that any US airstrikes on Iran would be swift and decisive, aimed at deterring further aggression. However, US authorities have not yet made any decision to proceed with airstrikes on Iran.
The UK and France appear to favour diplomatic solutions to the crisis and have expressed opposition to direct US intervention in Iran. In addition, any US airstrikes on Iran’s Fordow facility could require UK permission to use the Diego Garcia base, politically fracturing the UK government and public opinion. The UK and EU continue internal discussions on non-military options for resolving the conflict, with an official meeting with an Iranian delegation on nuclear talks set for 20 June in Geneva.
Rallies in solidarity with Iran have taken place for two consecutive days in Baghdad’s Green Zone, with protesters calling for the closure of the US embassy. A large fire was also reported around 2 km from Baghdad International Airport, though no details have been confirmed and there is no indication it is linked to the protests.
A flight with 148 passengers arrived in Bulgaria evacuating dual citizens from Bulgaria, Slovenia, US, Belgium, Albania, Kosovo and Romania from Israel. Other foreigners stranded in Israel continue to be evacuated by boat to Larnaca in Cyprus, a journey of around 20 hours. Foreign nationals in Iran are being evacuated via land borders, particularly through Armenia and Azerbaijan, less so through Turkey, with other remaining countries, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq, not advisable for Western citizens.
The Houthis have declared their readiness to support Iran if tensions escalate, with officials stating they are “in coordination” with Iranian authorities. So far, they have launched a limited number of missiles at Israel since the conflict began on 13 June and have refrained from targeting any maritime vessels.
Further US military aircraft, including heavy transports, have been observed flying between the US and Europe, with two others showing routes towards Israel. One US carrier strike group (USS Carl Vinson - CVN-70 strike group) is already present in the Middle East, with another on the way (USS Nimitz - CVN-68 strike group), together comprising around 12 vessels including aircraft carriers, destroyers and support ships. Each carrier can accommodate at least 60 aircraft, with at least half of these being combat aircraft.
Internet access in Iran remains restricted amid the ongoing conflict, while in Israel, authorities have tightened controls on what can be filmed.
Ben Gurion and Mehrabad International Airports in Israel and Iran, respectively, remain closed with all operations suspended as confirmed by airport authorities. Other airports in the region continue to operate but are experiencing widespread cancellations and delays, particularly Beirut-Rafic Hariri International (OLBA/BEY), Qatar’s Hamad International (OTHH/DOH), and Amman’s Queen Alia International (OJAI/AMM). Airports in Bahrain and the UAE appear to be operating with minimal disruption.
The airspace over both Iran and Israel remains closed because of the threat posed by missiles and military flights in the region. It is advisable to avoid flying through or operating in the airspace of Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon at any level. Additionally, due to a possible US involvement in the conflict, the airspace of Kuwait, the UAE and northern Oman is at a particular risk.
GPS interference in the eastern Mediterranean and Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz continues to intensify, affecting an ever-wider area at the time of writing. The exact source of the interference remains unknown. Flights and maritime traffic passing through these regions are advised to exercise increased caution.
Context:
The conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated into one of the most direct and intense confrontations in their history, triggering a dangerous sequence of events with far-reaching consequences. It began on 13 June 2025 when Israel launched large-scale strikes on key Iranian military and strategic sites, including the residences of senior figures and scientists. Iran responded rapidly with hypersonic and ballistic missiles and UAVs as both sides expanded their targets to include energy infrastructure and government facilities. Israel has continued its air operations deep into Iranian territory, crossing Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi airspace, while hundreds have been killed or injured on both sides, many of them civilians caught in attacks on major urban centres. Airspace between Iran and Israel, including over Iraq, Syria and Jordan, remains closed or heavily restricted, though maritime traffic has so far been largely unaffected despite growing GPS jamming near the Strait of Hormuz and off Israel’s coast. Since 17 June, both Israel and Iran have imposed media blackouts, with Israel reportedly blocking foreign journalists on the ground and internet connectivity in Iran has been significantly reduced. The international community remains split, with the US and European governments providing political or military backing to Israel, while China, Russia, the Gulf Cooperation Council, Pakistan and Afghanistan have condemned Israel’s initial strikes. The situation is becoming increasingly volatile and shows no signs of de-escalation in the near term.
Although no decision has yet been made on direct US strikes against Iran, ongoing difficulties in countering Iranian missiles could increase pressure for intervention, given the strong US-Israel alliance and the influence of pro-Israel lobbying in Washington. Reports indicate that military options are under consideration as the US continues to reinforce its position, with F-22s, F-35s, tankers, transports and surveillance aircraft deployed to European bases and the eastern Mediterranean. The arrival of two carrier strike groups, led by the USS Carl Vinson and the USS Nimitz, along with B-52 bombers stationed at Diego Garcia, signals a high state of alert and growing readiness to support Israel if the conflict intensifies. In light of potential US involvement, airspace over Kuwait, the UAE and northern Oman is now seen as presenting greater risk, both as possible overflight zones and as locations housing US bases that could become targets for Iranian retaliation. This demonstrates how the deepening conflict is already beginning to impact regional aviation security and operational planning across the wider area.
Looking ahead:
The security outlook for airline, maritime operations, and overall stability in the region remains highly precarious. The closure of airspace over Iran, Israel and parts of neighbouring countries, combined with widespread flight cancellations and delays, is likely to persist as missile exchanges continue and military activity intensifies. The deployment of additional US air defences to support Israel, alongside carrier strike groups and surveillance aircraft, now in addition to apparent Chinese military vessels in the Persian Gulf, points to a sustained high-risk environment for commercial aviation. GPS interference in key corridors such as the eastern Mediterranean and the Strait of Hormuz further compounds the threat, creating significant navigational hazards for both air and maritime traffic. Airline operators will need to continue rerouting or suspending flights through affected areas, while shipping companies will need to exercise increased caution, particularly in zones of military operations and areas with known GPS disruptions. In this regard, it is important to note the collision that occurred between tankers MV Front Eagle and MV Adalynn on 17 June 2025. Although an official investigation has not been completed, and the incident may be due to navigation issues, the heavy GPS spoofing in the area may have contributed to the collision.
Israeli air defences currently appear to be under significant pressure, with several videos showing unsuccessful attempts to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles that hit targets in Tel Aviv and other areas during daylight on 19 June. This has raised concerns that Israeli systems may be struggling to handle the scale of the threat or could be running low on interceptor missiles. In response, reports indicate that the US is sending THAAD air defence batteries and around 100 specialists to reinforce Israel’s defences, while open-source flight data shows US aircraft heading towards the eastern Mediterranean and switching off transponders before entering Israeli airspace, possibly signalling indirect involvement. If hostilities intensify or additional parties join the conflict, the risk to civilian aircraft and vessels is likely to rise significantly, particularly in contested airspace or near key maritime routes. Ongoing pressure on Israeli defences, the prospect of further Iranian missile strikes and uncertainty over potential US action could all lead to a worsening security environment. In this context, wider regional airspace closures or attacks on critical shipping lanes cannot be ruled out. Operators will need to remain vigilant, update contingency measures, and collaborate with authorities to safeguard passengers, crews, and cargo as the situation unfolds.
