Intel Brief: Risk of Serious Escalation in Middle East Threatens the Maritime and Aviation Sector
- laure7549
- 10 minutes ago
- 3 min read
Date: 21/05/2025
Where:
Israel, Ben Gurion Airport (TLV/LLBG), Iran, Strait of Hormuz
Who’s involved:
Israel, Houthis (Yemen), Iran, US
Context:
On 17/03/2025, Israel resumed its airstrikes on Gaza, violating the ceasefire, which triggered retaliatory airstrikes from both the Houthis and Hamas. This escalation has worsened the airspace security in the region, particularly in the LLLL/Tel Aviv FIR.
Due to the renewed fighting and expanding Israeli operations in Gaza, the conflict between Israel and the Houthis also flared up. Between 04/05/2025 and 18/05/2025, the Israelis and the Houthis have exchanged missiles, as a result of a missile hit near Ben Gurion Airport (TLV/LLBG) on 04/05/2025.
Following the strike on 04/05/2025, the Houthis declared its intent to enforce a total aerial blockade on Israel, primarily through the deployment of missiles directed at Israeli airports, Flights to Tel Aviv were cancelled by international airlines the same day. Subsequently, Israel launched retaliatory airstrikes on Sanaa International Airport (SAH/OYSN) on 06/05/2025. These were followed by more strikes on different locations in Hodeidah, Yemen, in the days following.
On 15/05/2025, Israel closed TLV/LLBG after a missile launch from Yemen was detected, underscoring the heightened tensions amid continued missile exchanges between the two sides.
What happened:
On 19/05/2025, Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis announced a maritime blockade on Israel’s Haifa Port, in response to Israel’s ongoing conflict in Gaza.
At the same time, the Houthis continue to fire missiles at Ben Gurion Airport (TLV/LLBG), with its most recent strikes targeting the airport on 18/05/2025.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that several vessels experienced Global Positioning System (GPS) interference in the Strait of Hormuz for several hours on 18/05/2025. This incident suggests that Iran may be engaging in electronic jamming of navigation systems, potentially marking the early stages of a broader threat or escalation campaign targeting international shipping.
In addition, on 21/05/2025, unverified reports by CNN highlight US intelligence indicating that Israel may be preparing strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. CNN cited US officials and reported that the new intelligence was derived from both public and private communications involving senior Israeli officials, intercepted Israeli messages, and observations of Israeli military movements that may indicate a potential strike.
Analysis:
Reports of a possible Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities — though still unconfirmed — are concerning and warrant close monitoring. The likelihood of a strike may be tied to whether the US-Iran deal proceeds without requiring the complete removal of Iran’s uranium stockpile. Amid a shift in US foreign policy priorities away from Israel - illustrated by the successful negotiation for the release of Hamas-held hostage Edan Alexander, which involved direct US-Hamas dialogue without notifying Israel- Israel may be more willing to pursue its own strategic objectives, even if they diverge from Washington’s focus on maintaining regional stability.
That being said, it is also possible that Israel purposefully ‘leaked’ this threat as a strategic move to prompt renewed engagement with the US, potentially encouraging Washington to make concessions in exchange for de-escalation.
However, if Israel does proceed with an attack on Iran, a strong response from Tehran is highly likely, especially considering Iran’s prior retaliatory missile strikes following the Israeli airstrike on its consulate in Damascus in April 2024 and the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh in Tehran in October 2024. Retaliation concerns furthermore exist over Iran blocking oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which it has threatened to do during times of heightened tensions in the past. Regional tensions, as well as the credibility of Iran’s leadership, hinge on its hardline position toward Israel. The regime is unlikely to remain unresponsive or inactive in the face of such aggression, as doing so could undermine its perceived strength.
