Intel Brief: Prospects for Military Action in Iran

laure7549
1 hour ago
6 min read

Date: 13/01/2026 (12:30 UTC+1)

Where?

Iran

Who’s involved?

Iran, Israel, the United States

What happened?

Since 28/12/2025 protests have taken place throughout Iran. The protests originated largely due to a continuously deteriorating economic situation in the country, where high inflation and subsequently higher exchange rates have risen to unprecedented levels in recent years. As an example, on 01/10/2022 —during Iran’s last large-scale protests following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini while in police custody— the USD/IRR (Iranian Rial, RI/RIs) exchange rate stood at an already high $1=336.000 Rls. Three years later, at the beginning of June 2025, just before the Israel-Iran War, the exchange rate stood at $1=822.000 RIs, in the following months, the exchange rate continued to climb and is now at around $1=1.400.000 RIs.
The government quickly pivoted to lethal force to suppress protests, and the funerals of the first deceased protesters on 02/01/2026 increased unrest, with the protests having increasingly grown in size and spread throughout the rest of the country. Reports now suggest the protests have spread to all 31 ostānha (provinces).
On 05/01/2025, reports surfaced alleging that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had prepared a contingency plan to leave the country should the situation escalate to a point where it is deemed necessary.
Rising numbers of fatalities have been reported on both sides, including among protesters and security personnel. As demonstrations have become increasingly aggressive and volatile, with protesters setting fire to regime properties, the security forces’ crackdown has also intensified. On 12/01/2026, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi referred to the protesters as “terrorists”, also accusing armed groups having infiltrated the protests and reiterating claims of US and Israel involvement. Iranian regime officials also referred to the protests as the next phase of the Israel-Iran War, highlighting concerns on external interference.
Since 08/01/2026, the Iranian government blocked internet access nation-wide, likely aiming to hinder protestor’s communication and thus coordination and organization, as well as decreasing the ability for citizens to share images and videos of violent, repressive behavior from security forces. Nonetheless, a small amount of videos and limited communication continued, thanks to some citizen-owned Starlink (satellite internet service) routers. Since 11/01/2026, the regime has jammed this service too, effectively imposing a country-wide internet blackout. US President Trump indicated he might contact Elon Musk to request assistance in restoring internet access using Musk's Starlink satellite service, though no further comments have yet been made on this by Musk or Trump. As of 12/01/2026, the large majority of media about the protests comes from official Iranian state media channels, which are the only ones remaining continuously online and broadcasting.
Since 01/01/2026, President Trump’s rhetoric with regards to Iran has become more aggressive. Trump has stated his readiness and openness to intervene ‘in favour of the protesters’. At the same time, Israel has regularly held security cabinet meetings over the past weeks discussing the situation in Iran and the country’s options, with former IDF Intelligence chief, Tamir Hayman, stating Israel “nearly struck Iran twice in recent weeks”. On 11/01/2025 Iran warned Israel and the US that if attacks were to be carried out by the US its military and shipping centers would be targeted. On 12/01/2026, US President Trump announced that the US will impose 25% tariffs with all the countries that do business with Iran, “effective immediately.”
Since 09/01/2025, several airlines, such as Turkish Airlines, Emirates, and FlyDubai among others, have cancelled flights to and from Iran, highlighting the severity of the situation. Temporary airspace closures in certain parts of the OIIX/Tehran FIR have been issued over the past days. On 12/01/2025, the US also issued a notice advising its citizens to leave the country.
On 11/01/2025, President Trump stated that Iran had reached out to propose nuclear talks, prompting subsequent diplomatic engagement between US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian officials. The following day, on 12/01/2025, the White House reaffirmed President Trump’s willingness to use military force, while emphasizing that diplomatic channels remained open. Unconfirmed reports indicate that Trump reportedly set out conditions aimed at preventing US intervention and including demands related to the protests, uranium enrichment, and long-range missile development. However, they are unlikely to be accepted by Iran.
On 12/01/2025, pro-government protests took place in Tehran, joined by Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian, underscoring the ongoing attempts by the Iranian regime to calm the protests, in this case by creating a parallel, seemingly citizen-led pro-government movement that could aim to confuse still swayable citizens into thinking that Iranians support the government. As per Aragchi’s comments, the government-led counter-protests likely aim to confirm Tehran’s statement that protestors are a “terrorist”-like minority.

Analysis

The current wave of protests in Iran represents a significant escalation of internal instability, driven primarily by a severe economic crisis and awaited by Israeli PM Netanyahu, who explicitly referenced this outcome during its war with Iran in June last year. While the immediate trigger pointed towards national crisis and economic hardship, the regime's lethal crackdown, followed by a government-imposed national internet blackout has intensified the situation. This internal volatility is further complicated by an aggressive stance from the US and Israel, including President Trump's declared openness to intervention, raising the likelihood of external interference. The timing and imminence of this potential military threat however is unsure, given that the US currently does not have the assets available in the region to execute certain military actions, and US assets movements in the region have not increased.The question that needs to be asked is what Trump aims and is able to achieve. Whether the objective is regime change through civil unrest or a coup, or the pursuit of a nuclear agreement, reliance on military force alone risks producing chaos rather than a favorable outcome.

Though the perspective exists that certain scenarios of major military action are less likely at this stage, because it might undermine the protests, this does not exclude action from the US against Iran. Cooperation with Israel, whether directly or through joint operations, remains a possibility. Furthermore, potential actions following up on the recently imposed sanctions such as cyberattacks, information campaigns, and assassination attempts of regime officials/leaders cannot be ruled out. Reports state Trump is expected to hold a meeting with his national security team on 13/01/2025 to discuss options for supporting the protests and weakening the Iranian regime. However, what can be stated with confidence is Iran’s heightened alertness, driven by fears and expectations of imminent external action amid ongoing internal unrest.

Implications for aviation and maritime security

Over the past few days several NOTAMs for the OIIX/Tehran FIR have already been issued, with more airspace restrictions, temporary closures, and disruptions to civil aviation expected to follow. Particularly in the event of US and/or Israeli military intervention, sudden airspace closures across other Middle Eastern countries are likely, mirroring the disruptions observed during the Israel–Iran War last June. Iran’s recent threats of retaliatory targeting of US military and maritime assets further highlight the risk of disruptions to maritime operations. Additionally, an escalation of conflict, particularly if it continues over an extended period, could cause major disruptions at strategic maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Bab al-Mandab (connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean). Sustained instability in these areas could have severe consequences for maritime operations and logistics, given that these routes are critical for maritime trade.

Conclusion

The economy-driven protests that began on 28/12/2025 have since expanded to an extent that poses a credible threat to the Iranian government. The Iranian government is walking a tightrope and its attempts to suppress the demonstrations, with censored media coverage, internet blackouts, and the use of violent suppression, have so far achieved limited results. The Iranian government has expressed openness to resume nuclear negotiations with the US in an effort to ease rising tensions and concerns over potential strikes. This however leaves key questions unresolved on the timing, scope and specific means of a potential US or Israeli intervention. Primarily due to the limited prospects for success in these ongoing diplomatic efforts, particularly in light of the demands the US has allegedly presented to Iran. Therefore, the situation remains highly volatile and poised for further escalation, with a likely continuation and increase in popular protests and a looming threat of external intervention.