Update VII: Situation in the Middle East
- gregorio46
- Jun 23
- 5 min read
Date: 22/06/2025
Where: Middle East, particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria
Who’s involved: Israel, Iran, United States
Key developments
Between the night of 21 and 22 June (Iran time), the US officially announced that it had targeted three Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan, stating, “We have completed our very successful attack… A full payload of bombs was dropped on the primary site in Fordow.”
No initial damage assessments after the US attack were available due to the lack of information, with the US reporting having successfully destroyed the nuclear facilities, while Iranian authorities refuted the news, stating that there was only minor damage.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry responded to the US attacks by condemning them, but stopped short of mentioning any planned Iranian response.
Houthi forces may resume attacks on ships in the Red Sea, having stated that they would target US ships and military forces if the US became involved in the Iran-Israel confrontation.
Israel and Iran also exchanged attacks between 21 and 22 June, with Israel reportedly carrying out air strikes in western Iran, targeting Iran’s oil and gas facilities in Bandar Abbas, along the Straits of Hormuz and other unspecified sites, while Iran launched missile strikes on Israel, focusing on Tel Aviv and Haifa, and targeting the port facility in Haifa and Ben Gurion airport.
Authorities in Tehran had warned that any US attack would be met with strikes on American military assets in the region, including bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, Syria and Turkey. At the time of writing, there was no indication of any attacks on US assets.
At the time of writing, there were no clear signs of maritime traffic being interrupted through the Red Sea or the Strait of Hormuz, though the latter could be closed by Iranian authorities in response to the US attacks.
The aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson is already operating in the area, while the USS Nimitz has reportedly arrived in the US Central Command area of operations, placing around 18 warships and more than 100 US military aircraft within striking distance of Iran. With reports of other US bases in the region, such as Riyadh, with an increased number of US bombers parked on tarmacs.
The airspace over both Iran and Israel remains closed due to the threat posed by missiles and military activity in the region. It is advisable to avoid flying through or operating in the airspace of Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon at any altitude. Additionally, with potential US involvement in the conflict, the airspace over Kuwait, the UAE and northern Oman is considered to be at heightened risk.
Context:
The confrontation between Iran and Israel has escalated into one of the most direct and dangerous in their history, triggering a chain of events with serious regional consequences. The crisis began on 13 June 2025 when Israel launched large-scale strikes against key Iranian military and strategic sites, including the homes of senior officials and scientists. Iran responded rapidly with hypersonic and ballistic missiles as well as UAVs, with both sides expanding their attacks to energy infrastructure and government buildings. Israeli air operations have reached deep into Iranian territory, crossing Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi airspace. Hundreds have been killed or injured on both sides, many of them civilians caught in strikes on major cities. Airspace over Iran, Israel, Iraq, Syria and Jordan remains closed or heavily restricted, while maritime traffic has continued despite increasing GPS interference near the Strait of Hormuz and the Israeli coast. Since 17 June, both countries have imposed media blackouts, with Israel reportedly barring foreign journalists and Iran severely limiting internet access. The international response remains divided, with the US and some European governments backing Israel. At the same time, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, Pakistan and Afghanistan have condemned Israel’s initial strikes.
After ten days of confrontation, the US launched strikes against Iran, likely driven by concerns over a deteriorating situation for Israel. Between the night of 21 and 22 June in Iran, the US announced that it had targeted three Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan, stating, “We have completed our very successful attack… A full payload of bombs was dropped on the primary site in Fordow.” Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned the attacks but stopped short of mentioning any planned response. Houthi forces warned they would target US ships and military forces in the Red Sea if the US became involved in the confrontation. Tehran had warned that any US attack would trigger strikes on US military assets across the region, including bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, Syria and Turkey. However, at the time of writing, there were no signs of such attacks. The arrival of the USS Nimitz and USS Carl Vinson, supported by B-52 bombers at Diego Garcia and US aircraft operating from bases in Cyprus and Crete, has placed about 18 warships and over 100 military aircraft within striking distance of Iran. While maritime traffic through the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz has not been interrupted so far, the latter could yet be closed by Iranian authorities in response to US action. With no sign of de-escalation, the situation remains highly volatile.
Looking ahead:
The security outlook for airline, maritime operations and overall regional stability continues to be deeply fragile as the Iran-Israel confrontation intensifies, now with the United States directly involved in attacks. Airspace closures over Iran, Israel and parts of neighbouring countries, along with flight cancellations and delays, are expected to persist as missile exchanges and military activity escalate. The deployment of further US military assets, carrier strike groups and surveillance aircraft, combined with the presence of Chinese military vessels in the Persian Gulf, signals a sustained high-risk environment for civil aviation. GPS interference in critical corridors, such as the eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea, and the Strait of Hormuz, adds to navigational hazards for both air and maritime traffic. Airline operators will likely need to continue rerouting or suspending flights through affected areas, while shipping companies must exercise greater caution near military zones and GPS disruption hotspots. Renewed Houthi threats to attack US vessels in the Red Sea could see a resumption of strikes on commercial shipping, with serious consequences for global trade and supply chains.
Israeli air defences continue to face heavy strain, with failed interceptions allowing Iranian missiles to hit key sites in Tel Aviv and other locations. In response to the escalating conflict and amid growing concerns for Israel’s security, the US has already launched strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, further raising tensions in the region. The deployment of additional US THAAD batteries, specialists and increased military air movements signals a deepening US role. The build-up of forces, including three US carrier strike groups, a UK carrier and Chinese surveillance ships, increases the risk of the conflict drawing in wider powers. Should exchanges between the US, Iran, Israel and the Houthis intensify, further airspace closures and maritime disruptions are likely, threatening major commercial routes across the Middle East and potentially into the Caucasus, with unpredictable consequences for regional security, aviation and trade.
