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Areas of US (yellow), Israeli (blue) and Iranian (green) targeting between 21 and 22 June 2025 Date:   22/06/2025  Where:  Middle East, particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria Who’s involved: Israel, Iran, United States Key developments Between the night of 21 and 22 June (Iran time), the US officially announced that it had targeted three Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan , stating, “We have completed our very successful attack… A full payload of bombs was dropped on the primary site in Fordow.”  No initial damage assessments after the US attack were available due to the lack of information , with the US reporting having successfully destroyed the nuclear facilities, while Iranian authorities refuted the news, stating that there was only minor damage.  Iran’s Foreign Ministry responded to the US attacks by condemning them , but stopped short of mentioning any planned Iranian response.  Houthi forces may resume attacks on ships in the Red Sea , having stated that they would target US ships and military forces if the US became involved in the Iran-Israel confrontation. Israel and Iran also exchanged attacks between 21 and 22 June , with Israel reportedly carrying out air strikes in western Iran, targeting Iran’s oil and gas facilities in Bandar Abbas, along the Straits of Hormuz and other unspecified sites, while Iran launched missile strikes on Israel, focusing on Tel Aviv and Haifa, and targeting the port facility in Haifa and Ben Gurion airport. Authorities in Tehran had warned that any US attack would be met with strikes on American military assets in the region , including bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, Syria and Turkey. At the time of writing, there was no indication of any attacks on US assets. At the time of writing, there were no clear signs of maritime traffic being interrupted through the Red Sea or the Strait of Hormuz , though the latter could be closed by Iranian authorities in response to the US attacks. The aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson  is already operating in the area, while the USS Nimitz  has reportedly arrived in the US Central Command area of operations, placing around 18 warships and more than 100 US military aircraft within striking distance of Iran.  With reports of other US bases in the region, such as Riyadh, with an increased number of US bombers parked on tarmacs.  The airspace over both Iran and Israel remains closed due to the threat posed by missiles and military activity in the region. It is advisable to avoid flying through or operating in the airspace of Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon at any altitude. Additionally, with potential US involvement in the conflict, the airspace over Kuwait, the UAE and northern Oman is considered to be at heightened risk. Context: The confrontation between Iran and Israel has escalated into one of the most direct and dangerous in their history, triggering a chain of events with serious regional consequences. The crisis began on 13 June 2025 when Israel launched large-scale strikes against key Iranian military and strategic sites, including the homes of senior officials and scientists. Iran responded rapidly with hypersonic and ballistic missiles as well as UAVs, with both sides expanding their attacks to energy infrastructure and government buildings. Israeli air operations have reached deep into Iranian territory, crossing Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi airspace. Hundreds have been killed or injured on both sides, many of them civilians caught in strikes on major cities. Airspace over Iran, Israel, Iraq, Syria and Jordan remains closed or heavily restricted, while maritime traffic has continued despite increasing GPS interference near the Strait of Hormuz and the Israeli coast. Since 17 June, both countries have imposed media blackouts, with Israel reportedly barring foreign journalists and Iran severely limiting internet access. The international response remains divided, with the US and some European governments backing Israel. At the same time, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, Pakistan and Afghanistan have condemned Israel’s initial strikes. After ten days of confrontation, the US launched strikes against Iran, likely driven by concerns over a deteriorating situation for Israel. Between the night of 21 and 22 June in Iran, the US announced that it had targeted three Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan, stating, “We have completed our very successful attack… A full payload of bombs was dropped on the primary site in Fordow.” Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned the attacks but stopped short of mentioning any planned response. Houthi forces warned they would target US ships and military forces in the Red Sea if the US became involved in the confrontation. Tehran had warned that any US attack would trigger strikes on US military assets across the region, including bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, Syria and Turkey. However, at the time of writing, there were no signs of such attacks. The arrival of the USS Nimitz  and USS Carl Vinson , supported by B-52 bombers at Diego Garcia and US aircraft operating from bases in Cyprus and Crete, has placed about 18 warships and over 100 military aircraft within striking distance of Iran. While maritime traffic through the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz has not been interrupted so far, the latter could yet be closed by Iranian authorities in response to US action. With no sign of de-escalation, the situation remains highly volatile. Looking ahead: The security outlook for airline, maritime operations and overall regional stability continues to be deeply fragile as the Iran-Israel confrontation intensifies, now with the United States directly involved in attacks. Airspace closures over Iran, Israel and parts of neighbouring countries, along with flight cancellations and delays, are expected to persist as missile exchanges and military activity escalate. The deployment of further US military assets, carrier strike groups and surveillance aircraft, combined with the presence of Chinese military vessels in the Persian Gulf, signals a sustained high-risk environment for civil aviation. GPS interference in critical corridors, such as the eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea, and the Strait of Hormuz, adds to navigational hazards for both air and maritime traffic. Airline operators will likely need to continue rerouting or suspending flights through affected areas, while shipping companies must exercise greater caution near military zones and GPS disruption hotspots. Renewed Houthi threats to attack US vessels in the Red Sea could see a resumption of strikes on commercial shipping, with serious consequences for global trade and supply chains. Israeli air defences continue to face heavy strain, with failed interceptions allowing Iranian missiles to hit key sites in Tel Aviv and other locations. In response to the escalating conflict and amid growing concerns for Israel’s security, the US has already launched strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, further raising tensions in the region. The deployment of additional US THAAD batteries, specialists and increased military air movements signals a deepening US role. The build-up of forces, including three US carrier strike groups, a UK carrier and Chinese surveillance ships, increases the risk of the conflict drawing in wider powers. Should exchanges between the US, Iran, Israel and the Houthis intensify, further airspace closures and maritime disruptions are likely, threatening major commercial routes across the Middle East and potentially into the Caucasus, with unpredictable consequences for regional security, aviation and trade.

Date:   20/06/2025  Where:  Middle East, particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria Who’s involved: Israel, Iran, United States In the image below: Areas of major Israeli (blue) and Iranian (green) targeting between 19 and 20 June 2025   Key developments        Israeli authorities reported that 20 fighter aircraft carried out attacks on Iranian assets  in Azatshehr, Gorgan, Tehran and the industrial district of Rasht, with Iranian anti-air defenses reportedly intercepting some aircraft. Houla and Kfarjouz in southern Lebanon were also targeted by UAVs countering Hezbollah activity according to Israeli officials. Iran reported launching a “16th wave” of ballistic missiles during the morning hours of 20 June , targeting what was described as a cybersecurity centre in Beer Sheva and Nevatim airbase. It also launched at least three UAVs towards central Israel and the Haifa area, and claimed to have downed two Israeli UAVs, including one near the border with Iraq in the Pol-e Dokhtar area. Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei stated that the US “has now entered the scene” in reference to the ongoing confrontation with Israel . Israel’s defense minister responded by saying that Khamenei “can no longer be allowed to exist,” signaling a shift in objectives from the initial focus on nuclear facilities.  A White House spokeswoman stated that President Trump is expected to make a decision on Iran “within the next two weeks,” adding that Iran had failed to comply with Trump’s 60-day deadline set in April, which expired on the day of Israel’s attack on 13 June. This has fueled further speculation about potential US involvement in the ongoing Iran-Israel confrontation. Israel targeted another of Iran’s heavy water nuclear reactors at Arak  on 19 June, reportedly damaging part of the facility. Increased activity of military aircraft, particularly from the US, has been observed in flights between the US and Europe as well as the eastern Mediterranean.  On 18 June seven aircraft were identified parked on the tarmac at Crete’s Souda Airbase, believed to be a mix of C-130 transports and KC-135 Stratotankers, with C-17 Globemaster transport aircraft also confirmed to have used the base for layovers around the same time. This heightened activity points to coordinated efforts aimed at strengthening Israel’s defense capabilities. Around 30 maritime vessels, including container ships and tankers, were observed in a circular holding pattern off northern Israel near the Tamar maritime oil and gas field . This is presumed to be part of a floating production storage and offloading procedure, as port operations in Israel may be restricted during the ongoing crisis. Iranian officials reported that they had foiled an assassination attempt against Foreign Minister  Abbas Araghchi, who was due to fly to Geneva for negotiations on 20 June, allegedly organized by Israeli operatives. This suggests Israel may be broadening its targets from strictly military sites to political figures. US carriers American Airlines and United Airlines will suspend flights to certain Middle Eastern destinations , including Doha and Dubai, while Delta Airlines has suspended flights to Tel Aviv. Air France, KLM and Air Canada have also cancelled services to regional hubs such as Dubai and Riyadh. A third US aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, is heading to the Mediterranean, bringing a third carrier strike group within reach of the Middle East. The USS Carl Vinson is already deployed in the region and the USS Nimitz is on its way from southeast Asia, surpassing the carrier presence seen during the 2011 intervention in Libya. In total this could place around 18 warships and more than 100 US military aircraft within striking distance of Iran. Internet access in Iran remains restricted amid the ongoing conflict while in Israel authorities have further tightened controls on what can be filmed. The airspace over both Iran and Israel remains closed  due to the threat from missiles and military flights in the region. It is advisable to avoid flying through or operating in the airspace of Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon at any level. In addition, with possible US involvement in the conflict, the airspace over Kuwait, the UAE and northern Oman is considered to be at increased risk. Context: The confrontation between Iran and Israel has escalated into one of the most direct and dangerous in their history, setting off a chain of events with significant regional consequences. The crisis began on 13 June 2025 when Israel launched large-scale strikes against key Iranian military and strategic sites, including the residences of senior figures and scientists. Iran responded swiftly with hypersonic and ballistic missiles and UAVs, as both sides expanded their targets to include energy infrastructure and government facilities. Israeli air operations have continued deep into Iranian territory, crossing Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi airspace, while hundreds have been killed or injured on both sides, many of them civilians caught in strikes on major urban centres. Airspace between Iran and Israel, including over Iraq, Syria and Jordan, remains closed or heavily restricted, while maritime traffic has largely continued despite growing GPS interference near the Strait of Hormuz and off the Israeli coast. Since 17 June both sides have imposed media blackouts, with Israel reportedly barring foreign journalists and Iran significantly limiting internet access. The international community remains divided, with the US and some European governments backing Israel, while China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, Pakistan and Afghanistan have condemned Israel’s initial strikes. The build-up of military forces signals growing risks, with two US carrier strike groups, led by the USS Carl Vinson and the USS Nimitz, joined by B-52 bombers at Diego Garcia, reflecting a high state of readiness to support Israel should the conflict intensify. US military transport and refueling aircraft are actively using airbases in Pafos, Cyprus and Crete (Souda Airbase) as staging points for flights to Israel, Jordan and Iraq. Satellite imagery from 18 June identified at least seven large aircraft resembling C-130s, and flight tracking shows KC-135 Stratotankers entering Iraqi airspace from Jordan and returning. This growing activity points to increasing signs of US involvement. On 19 June the White House confirmed that President Trump is expected to decide on possible action against Iran within the next two weeks, noting that Iran failed to comply with Trump’s 60-day deadline that expired on the day of Israel’s strikes, adding to speculation about direct US engagement in the conflict. Airspace over Kuwait, the UAE and northern Oman is now seen as higher risk due to the presence of US bases and their potential as targets for Iranian retaliation. The overall security environment remains volatile with no clear signs of de-escalation in the near future. Looking ahead: The security outlook for airline, maritime operations and overall regional stability remains deeply fragile as the Iran-Israel confrontation intensifies. Airspace closures over Iran, Israel and parts of neighboring countries, along with widespread flight cancellations and delays, are expected to persist as missile exchanges and military activity escalate. The deployment of further US air defenses, carrier strike groups and surveillance aircraft, combined with the presence of Chinese military vessels in the Persian Gulf, signals a sustained high-risk environment for civil aviation. GPS interference in critical corridors like the eastern Mediterranean and the Strait of Hormuz adds to navigational hazards for air and maritime traffic. Airline operators will likely need to keep rerouting or suspending flights through affected areas, while shipping companies must exercise greater caution near military zones and GPS disruption hotspots. The recent collision between the tankers MV Front Eagle and MV Adalynn on 17 June may be an early sign of how such interference can contribute to serious maritime incidents. Israeli air defenses continue to face heavy strain, with reports and videos showing failed interceptions of Iranian missiles striking key targets in Tel Aviv and other locations during daylight on 19 June. This raises serious concerns about the resilience of Israeli systems and their ability to cope with sustained attacks. In response, the US is reportedly sending THAAD batteries and additional specialists, while open-source data points to increased US air movements into the region, suggesting quiet military involvement. The growing build-up of forces, including three US carrier strike groups, a UK carrier and Chinese surveillance ships, reflects rising tensions that could soon draw in wider powers. Speculation that only the US could destroy Iran’s nuclear site at Fordow is increasing pressure on President Trump, raising the risk of US strikes and, in turn, Iranian retaliation against American military targets, which would further endanger regional airspace. Reports of Israeli UAVs possibly operating from Azerbaijani airspace, if confirmed, could also extend the conflict’s impact into the Caucasus, disrupting another vital flight corridor. Taken together, these developments point towards an escalating conflict with increasing likelihood of direct US-Iran hostilities and unpredictable consequences for the wider region.

Areas of major targeting (blue) between 18 and 19 June 2025 Date:   19/06/2025  Where:  Middle East, particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria Who’s involved: Israel, Iran, United States Key developments Israel and Iran exchanged further attacks between 18 and 19 June, with  the Israeli air force targeting reported IRGC offices in Tehran, an airport area near Karaj and airbases in Kermanshah and Tabriz . Unverified reports also suggested that Israel struck an underground bunker where Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was believed to be, though no details about the outcome have emerged. Iran launched what appear to be new advanced ballistic missiles , likely Sejil or Khorramshahr types, targeting Tel Aviv and Beer Sheva during the morning hours, marking a shift from the usual night-time attacks. The Israeli stock exchange and the diamond exchange in Ramat Gan, one of the world’s largest markets, were either struck directly or suffered serious collateral damage, along with a reported IDF intelligence building and a nearby hospital in Beer Sheva, as well as several other targets. Iran’s supreme leader made his first public appearance since the start of the conflict , warning that any US strikes would “inflict irreparable damage on them” and stressing that his country would not yield to Trump’s call for surrender. His comments came after Trump stated that any US airstrikes on Iran would be swift and decisive, aimed at deterring further aggression. However, US authorities have not yet made any decision to proceed with airstrikes on Iran. The UK and France appear to favour diplomatic solutions to the crisis and have expressed opposition to direct US intervention in Iran . In addition, any US airstrikes on Iran’s Fordow facility could require UK permission to use the Diego Garcia base, politically fracturing the UK government and public opinion. The UK and EU continue internal discussions on non-military options for resolving the conflict, with an official meeting with an Iranian delegation on nuclear talks set for 20 June in Geneva.  Rallies in solidarity with Iran have taken place for two consecutive days in Baghdad’s Green Zone , with protesters calling for the closure of the US embassy. A large fire was also reported around 2 km from Baghdad International Airport, though no details have been confirmed and there is no indication it is linked to the protests. A flight with 148 passengers arrived in Bulgaria evacuating dual citizens from Bulgaria, Slovenia, US, Belgium, Albania, Kosovo and Romania from Israel. Other foreigners stranded in Israel continue to be evacuated by boat to Larnaca in Cyprus, a journey of around 20 hours. Foreign nationals in Iran are being evacuated via land borders, particularly through Armenia and Azerbaijan, less so through Turkey,  with other remaining countries, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq, not advisable for Western citizens.  The Houthis have declared their readiness to support Iran  if tensions escalate, with officials stating they are “in coordination” with Iranian authorities. So far, they have launched a limited number of missiles at Israel since the conflict began on 13 June and have refrained from targeting any maritime vessels. Further US military aircraft, including heavy transports, have been observed flying between the US and Europe, with two others showing routes towards Israel. One US carrier strike group ( USS Carl Vinson - CVN-70 strike group) is already present in the Middle East, with another on the way ( USS Nimitz - CVN-68 strike group), together comprising around 12 vessels including aircraft carriers, destroyers and support ships. Each carrier can accommodate at least 60 aircraft, with at least half of these being combat aircraft.  Internet access in Iran remains restricted amid the ongoing conflict, while in Israel, authorities have tightened controls on what can be filmed. Ben Gurion and Mehrabad International Airports in Israel and Iran, respectively, remain closed with all operations suspended as confirmed by airport authorities. Other airports in the region continue to operate but are experiencing widespread cancellations and delays, particularly Beirut-Rafic Hariri International (OLBA/BEY), Qatar’s Hamad International (OTHH/DOH), and Amman’s Queen Alia International (OJAI/AMM). Airports in Bahrain and the UAE appear to be operating with minimal disruption. The airspace over both Iran and Israel remains closed  because of the threat posed by missiles and military flights in the region. It is advisable to avoid flying through or operating in the airspace of Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon at any level. Additionally, due to a possible US involvement in the conflict, the airspace of Kuwait, the UAE and northern Oman is at a particular risk.  GPS interference in the eastern Mediterranean and Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz continues to intensify , affecting an ever-wider area at the time of writing. The exact source of the interference remains unknown. Flights and maritime traffic passing through these regions are advised to exercise increased caution. Context: The conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated into one of the most direct and intense confrontations in their history, triggering a dangerous sequence of events with far-reaching consequences. It began on 13 June 2025 when Israel launched large-scale strikes on key Iranian military and strategic sites, including the residences of senior figures and scientists. Iran responded rapidly with hypersonic and ballistic missiles and UAVs as both sides expanded their targets to include energy infrastructure and government facilities. Israel has continued its air operations deep into Iranian territory, crossing Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi airspace, while hundreds have been killed or injured on both sides, many of them civilians caught in attacks on major urban centres. Airspace between Iran and Israel, including over Iraq, Syria and Jordan, remains closed or heavily restricted, though maritime traffic has so far been largely unaffected despite growing GPS jamming near the Strait of Hormuz and off Israel’s coast. Since 17 June, both Israel and Iran have imposed media blackouts, with Israel reportedly blocking foreign journalists on the ground and internet connectivity in Iran has been significantly reduced. The international community remains split, with the US and European governments providing political or military backing to Israel, while China, Russia, the Gulf Cooperation Council, Pakistan and Afghanistan have condemned Israel’s initial strikes. The situation is becoming increasingly volatile and shows no signs of de-escalation in the near term. Although no decision has yet been made on direct US strikes against Iran, ongoing difficulties in countering Iranian missiles could increase pressure for intervention, given the strong US-Israel alliance and the influence of pro-Israel lobbying in Washington. Reports indicate that military options are under consideration as the US continues to reinforce its position, with F-22s, F-35s, tankers, transports and surveillance aircraft deployed to European bases and the eastern Mediterranean. The arrival of two carrier strike groups, led by the USS Carl Vinson and the USS Nimitz, along with B-52 bombers stationed at Diego Garcia, signals a high state of alert and growing readiness to support Israel if the conflict intensifies. In light of potential US involvement, airspace over Kuwait, the UAE and northern Oman is now seen as presenting greater risk, both as possible overflight zones and as locations housing US bases that could become targets for Iranian retaliation. This demonstrates how the deepening conflict is already beginning to impact regional aviation security and operational planning across the wider area. Looking ahead: The security outlook for airline, maritime operations, and overall stability in the region remains highly precarious. The closure of airspace over Iran, Israel and parts of neighbouring countries, combined with widespread flight cancellations and delays, is likely to persist as missile exchanges continue and military activity intensifies. The deployment of additional US air defences to support Israel, alongside carrier strike groups and surveillance aircraft, now in addition to apparent Chinese military vessels in the Persian Gulf, points to a sustained high-risk environment for commercial aviation. GPS interference in key corridors such as the eastern Mediterranean and the Strait of Hormuz further compounds the threat, creating significant navigational hazards for both air and maritime traffic. Airline operators will need to continue rerouting or suspending flights through affected areas, while shipping companies will need to exercise increased caution, particularly in zones of military operations and areas with known GPS disruptions. In this regard, it is important to note the collision that occurred between tankers MV Front Eagle and MV Adalynn on 17 June 2025. Although an official investigation has not been completed, and the incident may be due to navigation issues, the heavy GPS spoofing in the area may have contributed to the collision. Israeli air defences currently appear to be under significant pressure, with several videos showing unsuccessful attempts to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles that hit targets in Tel Aviv and other areas during daylight on 19 June. This has raised concerns that Israeli systems may be struggling to handle the scale of the threat or could be running low on interceptor missiles. In response, reports indicate that the US is sending THAAD air defence batteries and around 100 specialists to reinforce Israel’s defences, while open-source flight data shows US aircraft heading towards the eastern Mediterranean and switching off transponders before entering Israeli airspace, possibly signalling indirect involvement. If hostilities intensify or additional parties join the conflict, the risk to civilian aircraft and vessels is likely to rise significantly, particularly in contested airspace or near key maritime routes. Ongoing pressure on Israeli defences, the prospect of further Iranian missile strikes and uncertainty over potential US action could all lead to a worsening security environment. In this context, wider regional airspace closures or attacks on critical shipping lanes cannot be ruled out. Operators will need to remain vigilant, update contingency measures, and collaborate with authorities to safeguard passengers, crews, and cargo as the situation unfolds.

Date:   18/06/2025  Areas of major targeting in blue Where:  Middle East, particularly Iran,  Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria Who’s involved: Israel, Iran, United States   Key developments Attacks between Israel and Iran continued between 17 and 18 June, but with less intensity than during the first two days . Israel reportedly targeted the Imam Huseyin University vicinity and IRGC offices in Tehran and Iran hit areas in Haifa and Tel Aviv with what official Iranian sources claim as 440 missiles and rockets during the evening hours and  night. Jordanian airspace was confirmed as having been used for at least one of these strikes.  The United States’ President Trump issued a post on social media insinuating direct US participation alongside Israel against Iran . In the post he stated, “We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now” referring to Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, while in a subsequent post immediately afterwards he wrote, “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” Additionally, credible media reports state that Trump is considering military options against Iran. Credible open-source information suggests the United States is deploying at least two dozen military aircraft at bases in Europe , among them F-22 and F-35 fighters, KC-135 Stratotankers, C-17 Globemasters, C-130 Hercules and P-8 Poseidons, some of which have flown towards the eastern Mediterranean, possibly supporting Israel. The Chinese embassy is reportedly evacuating personnel in Tehran, and the Thai embassy is seeking to evacuate all citizens in Iran, while others have left through land borders, particularly with Azerbaijan to the north. The UK and other European countries are advising against all travel to Iran, as airspace remains closed and people are being evacuated, particularly through Armenian and Azeri land borders. Internet traffic in Iran has seen a significant reduction over the past day , suggesting local authorities are seeking to limit access to information for security reasons. Media blackouts continue, with less amateur footage emerging from Israel compared to the first three days of the conflict. Ben Gurion International Airport (LLBG/TLV) remains closed , with operations suspended according to official notification from airport authorities. Other airports in the region are operational but experiencing numerous cancellations and delays, particularly at Beirut-Rafic Hariri International (OLBA/BEY), Qatar’s Hamad International (OTHH/DOH), and Amman’s Queen Alia International (OJAI/AMM). Airports in Bahrain and the UAE appear to be operating with minimal disruption. The airspace over both Iran and Israel remains closed  due to the threat of missiles and military flights in the area. EASA recommends not to operate in Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Lebanon at all levels. Two tankers, the Bermuda-flagged Adalynn  and the Liberian-flagged Front Eagle , collided in waters near the Strait of Hormuz , approximately 26 nautical miles from the eastern UAE coastline near Fujairah. The UAE National Guard intervened to evacuate 24 crew from the Adalynn , which was set ablaze by the collision. While the cause of the incident is being investigated, the Front Eagle  had reported interference with its geopositioning system on 15 June. There are continuing indications of GPS interference in the eastern Mediterranean and Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz, with the potential to affect flights and maritime lanes. Amid indications of a possible US intervention in Iran, crude oil prices have once again increased by around 4%, with both Brent North Sea Crude and WTI seeing rises of more than 4% over the past day. Context: The conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated into one of the most direct and intense confrontations in their history. The crisis began with a large-scale Israeli strike on 13 June 2025 targeting key Iranian military and strategic sites, including the homes of senior figures and scientists. This prompted swift Iranian retaliation with hypersonic and ballistic missiles and UAVs. Israel has continued air operations deep into Iran, flying through Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi airspace, with both sides increasingly targeting energy infrastructure as well as military and government facilities. The fighting has caused significant casualties, drawn in wider geopolitical actors and led to airspace closures, flight disruptions and a surge in oil prices. A media blackout between 16 and 17 June appeared to limit unofficial reporting, suggesting efforts to suppress information, particularly on social media. The airspace over Iran, Israel and Iraq remains closed, with ongoing delays and electronic interference affecting navigation. Russia and Turkey condemned Israel’s actions while the US reinforced its military presence, fueling speculation of direct involvement. Several embassies, including those of the UK and France, have urged citizens to leave Israel as governments update travel warnings across the region. US President Trump posted on social media suggesting direct US involvement alongside Israel. He wrote “We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now” referring to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, followed by “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” Credible reports suggest Trump is weighing military options. Open sources indicate at least two dozen US military aircraft, including F-22s, F-35s, KC-135s, C-17s, C-130s and P-8s, have deployed to European bases, with some moving towards the eastern Mediterranean. Signs are growing that Washington may support Israel’s airstrikes. US officials say assets are for defensive purposes, referencing 40,000 troops at over 20 regional bases. The USS Nimitz is expected in the region within a week, joining the USS Carl Vinson, while B-52 bombers have been sent to Diego Garcia. US forces appear on high alert given the scale of deployments. Looking ahead: Several scenarios could unfold as the crisis deepens . The most concerning is a major escalation , with growing signs that Washington may become directly involved in armed conflict against Iran in support of Israel’s ongoing airstrikes. While US defense officials insist that their military deployments are for defensive purposes, referring to the roughly 40,000 US troops stationed at more than 20 bases across the region, the scale of the build-up suggests preparations for possible direct action. The USS Nimitz  is expected to enter the region within a week from South-East Asia, joining the USS Carl Vinson  already in position, while B-52 bombers were sent to Diego Garcia in May. US Central Command and US Air Forces Central Command appear to be on high alert given the number of assets now deployed. A wider war could draw in Hezbollah, militias in Iraq and Syria, and perhaps Gulf states, leading to further attacks on infrastructure, severe disruption to energy supplies, and significant civilian harm. Maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz and Suez Canal could face major risks from missile strikes or interference, while air travel would continue to suffer from closed airspace as military operations continue, resulting in widespread cancellations, rerouting and rising operational costs. Alternatively, diplomacy may gain ground, with actors such as Qatar, Oman, Turkey, Russia or China, attempting to broker a ceasefire or de-escalation  to avert full-scale war. This could involve halting attacks on energy infrastructure and transport corridors, reopening airspace or creating safe maritime and aviation routes. However, such efforts face considerable challenges given the scale of hostilities and political pressures on both sides. A prolonged stand-off is also possible, marked by continued airstrikes, cyber operations, proxy clashes and maritime incidents, leaving the region in a state of enduring instability. In this scenario, persistent threats to shipping and aviation would keep global markets volatile and place sustained pressure on governments and commercial operators. Reports and overall developments suggest the next 24 -48 hours will be critical  for determining the outcome of the confrontation, whether the crisis spirals into broader war or stabilizes into an uneasy containment.

Areas of major targeting in blue Date:   17/06/2025  Where:  Middle East, particularly Iran,  Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria Who’s involved: Israel, Iran    Key developments Between 16 and 17 June, there appeared to be a media blackout in both Iran and Israel , with limited unofficial information on exchanges of attacks, suggesting both countries may be actively working to suppress the publication of information from private sources, particularly on social media. This follows hundreds of videos showing attacks over the past three days. Media reporting the continuation of attacks on Tel Aviv and Tehran, with little details.  While Israel’s head of state, Benjamin Netanyahu, has made several appearances during the confrontation , the whereabouts of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, remain unknown. He has not appeared in public, fuelling unverified reports that he may have fled to Russia. The airspace over both Iran (OIIX/Tehran FIR) and Israel (LLLL/Tel Aviv FIR) remains closed owing to the ongoing threat from missile strikes, unmanned aerial vehicles and military aviation activity. In addition, Iraqi airspace (ORBB/Baghdad FIR) is also closed at least until 16 June 2025 at 19:00 UTC. Nevatim airbase in central Israel was reportedly targeted with missiles  from Iran, though the extent of the damage remains unspecified. The base had previously been targeted by Iran during the October confrontation in 2024. The leaders of Russia and Turkey issued a joint statement condemning Israel’s attacks on Iran and calling for an immediate end to hostilities . Turkey’s president, Tayyip Erdogan, later announced that his country plans to increase its medium and long-range missile stockpile due to ongoing developments in the region. The US has deployed dozens of aircraft, including refuelling planes, to its bases across Europe , as well as the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz, which is en route to the Middle East to join the USS Carl Vinson’s carrier strike group. The US President issued a statement in which he urged “Iran should have signed the deal… everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran,” his participation in the G7 summit was cut short, as was Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s trip to Canada. The US National Security Council was told to “be prepared for their return,” fueling rumours of a possible US participation against Iran.  Although president Trump later stated his return had “nothing to do with a ceasefire.” Iran’s IRIB state media studio was attacked by Israel while broadcasting live , killing two employees, a move Iran reportedly responded to with missiles, however damage and the extent of the response remains undetermined.  Ben Gurion International Airport remains closed , with operations suspended in line with official notification from airport authorities. Other airports in the region remain operational, though with numerous cancellations and delays, particularly at Beirut International, Qatar’s Hamad and Amman’s Queen Alia International. Airports in Bahrain and the UAE appear to be operating with minimal delays. There are increasing reports of electronic interference in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz , affecting the automatic identification systems (AIS) and navigation of maritime vessels transiting the area. Multiple incidents have been reported to UKMTO, which continues to advise vessels to transit with caution. Embassies such as the UK, France, China, South Korea and Russia among others have advised their citizens to leave Israel . With some, such as the UK, advising against travel to parts of Saudi Arabia and Jordan updated on 17 June 2025.  Crude oil and other energy prices appear to have leveled out , continuing to readjust, dropping around 4% after an 8% gain due to the ongoing situation.  Context: The conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated into one of the most direct and intense confrontations in the history of their long-standing hostility. The crisis began with a large-scale Israeli strike on 13 June 2025 targeting key Iranian military and strategic facilities, including the homes of senior political-military figures and scientists,  prompting swift Iranian retaliation with hypersonic and ballistic missiles and UAVs. Israel has sustained air operations deep into Iran, flying through Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi airspace, while both sides have increasingly targeted energy infrastructure alongside military and government sites. The fighting has caused significant casualties, drawn in wider geopolitical actors and led to widespread airspace closures, flight disruptions and surging oil prices, though energy markets are now readjusting following an initial spike. After three days of intense attack exchanges between Tel Aviv and Tehran, between 16 and 17 June, a media blackout appeared to limit unofficial reporting of attacks, suggesting efforts by both countries to suppress information, especially on social media. The airspace over Iran, Israel and Iraq remains closed, with increasing delays across the region and ongoing electronic interference affecting maritime navigation. Russia and Turkey issued a joint statement condemning Israel’s actions, while the US appears to be reinforcing its military presence and fuelled speculation about direct involvement. Several embassies, including those of the UK, France, China and Russia, have advised citizens to leave Israel, and governments are updating travel warnings across the Middle East as the crisis continues with no sign of de-escalation.   Conclusion: In the days and weeks ahead, the situation is expected to remain extremely volatile, with the risk of a wider regional escalation increasing, particularly if the United States shifts from reinforcing its military presence to direct involvement. The emergence of opposing geopolitical blocs, with Russia, China, Turkey and Pakistan critical of Israel and the European Union, UK, United States and India offering support to Israel, adds further complexity to the crisis. Large pro-Iranian rallies in Iraq and reported backing from Afghanistan and Pakistan raise the likelihood of further political or proxy involvement. Internally, the conflict may heighten instability within both Iran and Israel, with reports of unrest, including the escape of hundreds of prisoners during riots in Iran, pointing to possible cracks within the Iranian state. At present, there is no indication of either government collapsing, although serious attacks are expected to continue. Israel’s head of state, Benjamin Netanyahu, appears to be seeking greater US involvement, possibly with the aim of toppling Iran’s current leadership. Details on troop movements and military deployments remain limited, though reports indicate US military aircraft departed for Europe the previous day. The threat to airspace, maritime routes and company security is likely to remain severe. Airspace closures across Iran, Israel, Iraq and parts of the broader region are expected to persist, with the possibility of further restrictions posing risks to aviation safety and commercial operations. Maritime routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, continue to face heightened dangers from electronic interference, potential attacks on shipping and disruption to vital energy supplies. Companies with interests in or connected to the region should maintain close monitoring, review contingency measures and safeguard personnel and assets against the evolving threat landscape.

Date:  16/06/2025  Where:  Middle East, particularly Iran,  Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria Who’s involved: Israel, Iran Areas of major Israeli targeting in blue Key developments Exchanges of attacks between Iran and Israel are continuing, particularly during the night-time hours. However, the night of 15 to 16 June witnessed a relative lull in intensity, with apparently fewer missiles launched and fewer targets struck by either side, according to open sources. Energy-producing infrastructure, including gas fields, refineries, and major power stations, is now being actively targeted by both countries, in addition to military and government facilities. There are unconfirmed and independently unverified reports suggesting that members of the Iranian political elite, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, may have fled the country, either permanently or temporarily, with Russia cited as a possible destination. Numerous unofficial but credible sources have indicated this, although it has yet to be independently verified. Iran has primarily conducted its attacks using what appear to be hypersonic missiles, ballistic missiles, and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), while Israel seems to be relying on aircraft operating via Jordanian, Syrian, and Iraqi airspace to carry out its strikes within Iran. The airspace of both  Iran (OIIX/Tehran FIR) and Israel (LLLL/Tel Aviv FIR) remains closed due to the ongoing threat posed by missile fire, UAVs, and military aviation conducting operations. In addition, Iraqi airspace (ORBB/Baghdad FIR) is also closed at least until 16/06/2025 19.00UTC  Negotiations between the United States and Iran, which had been anticipated for Sunday 15 June in Oman prior to the Israeli strikes of 13 June, did not take place. It remains unclear if or when further talks might be scheduled.  Houthi forces claimed to have launched “several Palestine-2 hypersonic missiles” at Israel around 15 June, following Israeli strikes on their assets in Yemen that reportedly killed a “senior leader.” However, attacks on ships remain paused for now. Maritime traffic remains unchanged , including through the Straits of Bab al Mandab and Hormuz. There are no signs on social media or from official sources of imminent danger to shipping, though this could change at short notice. Most vessels near Bab al Mandab have non-Western origins or destinations (e.g. Singapore, India, Russia, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, China). Ships linked to European or US ports continue to avoid the area due to the risk of Houthi attacks from Yemen. No new independent reports on radiological and chemical contamination  from Iran’s nuclear facilities have been reported since the IInternational Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) 13 June report, reporting radiation inside Iran’s Natanz facility, but none outside the facility itself.  Crude oil and other energy prices appear to have leveled out , readjusting to the ongoing situation after an almost 8% increase the past two days, the current situation may see a further rise, with prices reacting to increased or larger-scale attacks.  Context: The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated into one of the most direct and intense confrontations in the history of their long-standing hostility. The crisis was sparked by an extensive Israeli strike on 13 June 2025, targeting key Iranian military and strategic facilities. This prompted a swift and large-scale Iranian retaliation, using hypersonic and ballistic missiles and UAVs to attack Israeli territory. Israel has responded with sustained air operations, using aircraft flying through Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi airspace to strike deep into Iran. As the conflict has intensified, both sides have increasingly targeted not only military and government sites but also vital energy infrastructure including gas fields, refineries and power stations. Iran has reported at least 78 dead and 300 injured, while Israel has confirmed 14 fatalities and 390 wounded. The confrontation has drawn in wider geopolitical actors. Open support for Iran has been signalled by Pakistan, China and Russia, while reports indicate that Hezbollah and other Iran-aligned proxies in Syria and Jordan are preparing to attack Israel directly or infiltrate its territory. There are unverified but persistent reports that elements of Iran’s political elite — possibly including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — have fled to Russia, either temporarily or permanently. Israeli authorities have stated they are prepared for this conflict to continue for weeks, with no immediate signs of de-escalation. Airspace across much of the region remains closed due to the threat of missile attacks, UAV strikes and military operations. Flights to and from affected areas have been cancelled or rerouted, with delays also affecting airports in Lebanon, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait. Additionally, it is recommended to suspend all operations in and over Syria (OSTT/Damascus FIR), Lebanon (OLBB, Beirut FIR), and Jordan (OJAC/Amman FIR) due to increased regional instability and elevated security risks. Although maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab remains steady, oil prices have surged, adding further strain to global markets. Travellers to the Middle East and Gulf region face increasing uncertainty, and governments, including the Netherlands, are expected to issue updated guidance in the coming days. Conclusion: The upcoming days or weeks may see continued volatility due to hostilities, particularly should the US directly intervene. Open-source reports of UK and German military aircraft flying over Jordan, in one case a Royal Air Force Airbus KC2 Voyager air-to-air refueling aircraft possibly suggests a silent, albeit Western implication supporting Israeli aircraft conducting airstrikes on Iran. Comprehensive damage assessments remain difficult, given the limited and often unverifiable reports released by both sides, as well as the reliance on footage and claims circulating on social media. Israel has primarily struck sites in Iran’s western, central and north-western regions, while Iran has mainly targeted the Tel Aviv metropolitan area, parts of northern Israel and Jerusalem. Geopolitically, Iran appears to be receiving either military or political support from Pakistan, China and Russia, with possible interventions from Hezbollah and pro-Iranian groups in Syria against Israel. The Israeli leadership signalled that it continues fully engaged for prolonged operations, possibly lasting weeks. This contrasts with media statements quoting Iran’s foreign minister, who has indicated that attacks on Israel may stop should Israel cease its operations, although there is no official indication of the latter halting attacks Internally, the leadership of both countries may experience pressure from opposition groups. If the current Iranian government were to fall, its successor might not be pro-Israeli, as some might assume. Instead, it would likely emerge from a coalition of nationalist political forces, reflecting Iran’s deeply rooted nationalist sentiment, a sentiment that has endured for more than half a century, especially since the 1953 US-UK-backed overthrow of Prime Minister Mossadegh’s government. Meanwhile, although Netanyahu has secured backing from certain sectors within Israel, significant opposition to his leadership and policies persists. This was most evident in the mass anti-government protests as recently as March of this year, when tens of thousands repeatedly took to the streets, leading to at least a dozen arrests in cities like Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Thus, a prolongation of the conflict risks heightened internal instability, driven by their respective domestic opposition movements.

Initial assessment of areas targeted by Israel inside Iran in blue   Date:  13/06/2025  Where:  Middle East, particularly Iran,  Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria Who’s involved: Israel, Iran What happened:  In the early hours of 13 June 2025, Israel carried out massive airstrikes on what it called strategic targets in Iran,  including military installations and the nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz. Official reports from Israel stated that more than 200 fighter jets participated in ‘Operation Rising Lion’, which resulted in the death of Iran’s military Chief of Staff, commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, commander of a major military coordination center, the Khatam Al Anbiya base, as well as five high ranking scientists responsible for the country’s nuclear program.  Iranian authorities vowed retaliation against Israel, with reports of at least 100 drones launched by them towards Israel over Iraqi and Syrian airspace . The drones also breached Jordanian airspace earlier in the day, prompting Jordan to intercept a number of drones. Unconfirmed reports suggest air forces from Israel, Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, France, and the UK are also engaged in attacking Iranian drones , with the UK having issued statements denying their involvement. Significant tensions are expected in the Middle East, affecting maritime and air logistics, additionally, neighboring countries may be put in a state of heightened awareness, with increased security personnel and possible limitations on the movement of individuals.  Analysis: Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen pledged their full support for Iran, condemning Israel’s airstrikes, suggesting they may either increase or prolong launching missiles towards Israel, as well as resume attacks on any maritime vessel perceived to be supporting Israel.  Reports suggest the US and neighboring states such as Jordan and Qatar are also assisting in downing Iranian drones towards Israel. A prolongation of the tensions may result in a spillover into neighboring areas, widening the conflict zone.  The drones launched by Iran may have been deployed as decoy to obscure or precede an impending strike. Israeli air defense capabilities may also be weakened by waves of either decoy or low-cost missile and drones launched prior to  a larger missile attack by Iran, in which case, other countries, particularly the US, may be required to step in and provide support to Israel. Iran (OIIX/Tehran FIR) and Iraq (ORBB/Baghdad FIR) have closed their airspace until at least 10:00 UTC and 09:00UTC on Friday June 13 respectively. Many carriers had already begun avoiding these FIR’s due to the warning signs over the past few days.  Jordan’s Queen Alia International Airport and Israel’s Ben Gurion International Airport have both suspended all operations. In contrast, airports in Bahrain and Kuwait continue to operate, though some flights have been cancelled as a precaution.  With evolving airspace restrictions, Saudi Arabia's skies have become increasingly congested, as flights that once traversed Iranian and Iraqi airspace are now being rerouted through its territory. A prolongation of the conflict may see a spillover into the South Caucasus, affecting a major air corridor through Georgia and Azerbaijan.  Maritime vessels in and around the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Gulf of Oman and eastern Mediterranean Sea appear to continue their routes, although heightened security in the region may render their routes dangerous. Additionally, Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen may resume attacks on vessels transiting within their reach as they had previously done, possibly expanding targets, forcing cargo and tanker ships to reroute around Africa’s southern Cape of Good Hope, significantly extending travel time.  Expectations and recommendations : It is expected to see an increased risk of missile or drone attacks from Iranian proxies, particularly from Yemen or southern Lebanon, targeting Israeli territory or interest. Heightened military readiness and possible retaliatory strikes by Israel or the US raises the likelihood of further regional escalation. In light of the current conflict and its escalating, retaliatory nature, it is strongly recommended to continue avoiding operations in and over Iran (OIIX/Tehran FIR) and Iraq (ORBB/Baghdad FIR).  Additionally, it is recommended to suspend all operations in and over Syria (OSTT/Damascus FIR), Israel (LLLL/Tel Aviv FIR), Lebanon (OLBB/Beirut FIR), and Jordan (OJAC/Amman FIR) due to increased regional instability and elevated security risks, until further notice.

Date:  13/06/2025  Where:  Middle East, particularly Iran,  Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria Who’s involved: Israel, Iran Areas of major Israeli targeting in blue What happened:  In the early hours of 13 June 2025, the Israeli military launched extensive airstrikes on multiple targets across Iran, including military bases, radar installations, surface-to-air missile systems, a nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, missile production sites, and the residences of senior Iranian officials and scientists. According to official sources, more than 200 aircraft were involved in the operation—most of them believed to be unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)—marking the largest Israeli strike of its kind against Iran, potentially signalling an ambition to achieve regime change. Iranian state media reported 78 fatalities and 329 injuries as a result of the airstrikes on Tehran, with the capital’s Mehrabad International Airport also targeted, leading to the suspension of all flights. Following the attacks, Iran raised the symbolic red flag of revenge above the Jamkaran Mosque in Qom. However, no missile launches have been confirmed so far. Iran has, however, launched 100 drones towards Israel via Iraqi and Syrian airspace. Earlier in the day, several of these drones breached Jordanian airspace, prompting Jordanian forces to intercept them—an action which may now expose Jordan to the risk of Iranian retaliation. Israel has continued its strikes throughout the day, targeting various locations across Iran. Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that operations will persist until Israel’s objectives are achieved. Simultaneously with Iran’s drone deployment, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) initiated a second wave of attacks. Confirmed targets include a missile production facility in Shiraz, an underground military complex in Kermanshah, residential areas and the international airport in Tabriz, the Natanz nuclear site, explosions in Eslamshahr reportedly aimed at government officials, nuclear facilities in Arak and Fordow, and potential strategic assets at or near Bushehr, among other sites. Unconfirmed reports surfaced regarding a potential radiation leak at the Natanz nuclear facility. However, Iranian officials have stated that the issue appears to be limited to an internal leak. Should a leak outside the facility be confirmed, it would likely involve uranium hexafluoride (UF₆), a compound used in centrifuges. Although UF₆ is not highly radioactive itself, it poses health risks when inhaled due to its reaction to air forming toxic uranyl fluoride (UO₂F₂) and hydrogen fluoride. Such a leak could therefore contaminate surrounding areas and pose health risks to nearby individuals, but it would not constitute a large-scale nuclear incident. A global activist-led march from Egypt to Gaza, scheduled from 12 to 16 June, has already triggered significant disruption at Cairo International Airport (CAI/HECA) and across parts of the city, following the detention and deportation of participants by Egyptian authorities. The next phase of the march, planned between Arish and Gaza on 15–16 June, is expected to escalate tensions, likely prompting increased surveillance and security activity across the Sinai Peninsula. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Katz has called on Egypt to halt the march, warning that if Egyptian authorities fail to do so, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will take whatever measures necessary to prevent participants from entering Gaza. Context: In the early hours of 13 June 2025, Israel initiated a large-scale aerial assault, dubbed Operation Rising Lion , targeting what it identified as key strategic locations across Iran. These included military installations, missile infrastructure, and the nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz. According to Israeli sources, the operation involved more than 200 fighter jets and resulted in the reported deaths of Iran’s military Chief of Staff, the commander of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, a senior official at the Khatam Al Anbiya base, and five top nuclear scientists. In retaliation, Iran launched over 100 drones towards Israel, many of which traversed Iraqi and Syrian airspace, with several reportedly breaching Jordanian airspace—prompting interceptions by Jordanian defence forces. Around the same time, Israel is believed to have launched a second wave of strikes against Iran, demonstrating apparent air superiority over Syria, Iraq, and potentially parts of Iranian airspace. There are unconfirmed reports suggesting that aerial engagements may have involved Israeli, Turkish, Jordanian, Saudi, French and British aircraft, although the UK has publicly denied any involvement in the operation. Analysis: An elevated threat of missile and drone strikes from both Israel and Iran, as well as affiliated groups such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, remains highly likely. Given the small geographical size of Israel, any retaliatory attacks could have significant impact, particularly if they spill into densely populated urban areas. Current high alert levels, combined with the possibility of counterstrikes by either Israel or the United States, increase the risk of a broader regional conflict. However, most Gulf states have so far limited their response to formal condemnations of Israeli actions, showing little willingness to engage directly. The Israeli offensive is not expected to conclude on 13 June, especially in light of Prime Minister Netanyahu's stated intention to continue operations until strategic objectives are achieved—a process that may take several days or even weeks, particularly if more actors become involved. Retaliatory drone or missile strikes by Iranian proxies are anticipated, especially from Yemen and southern Lebanon, targeting Israeli interests or territory. The continuation of hostilities raises the risk of conflict spillover into neighbouring countries, placing additional strain on regional airspace security and increasing the risk to civilian and commercial aviation. With the United States expected to defend Israel in the event of a large-scale Iranian response, there is growing concern that the conflict could escalate further and persist over an extended period. Israel is likely to maintain offensive momentum in the coming days in an effort to disrupt or pre-empt any Iranian countermeasures, aiming to prevent Tehran from regrouping or mounting an effective retaliation. Implications for air travel Airspace over Iran, Iraq, Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria remains effectively closed, with flight tracking data showing a continued absence of commercial aircraft. These closures are a direct result of ongoing missile exchanges and the high risk of further strikes between Iran and Israel, making overflight operations in these regions unsafe. As of the time of reporting, Iran has not yet launched a significant retaliatory strike against Israel, despite earlier threats. Such action could still take place later in the day or at a time of Iran’s choosing, contributing to uncertainty around the duration and scope of current airspace restrictions. Major international airports in Beirut, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Jeddah, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar continue to operate, though they are experiencing considerable delays in both arrivals and departures. Passengers are being advised to check with their airlines for the latest updates and rebooking options due to the disruption caused by regional airspace closures. Jordan has revised its airspace restrictions to allow limited flight operations, but only with prior authorisation. Aircraft must enter via waypoint GENEX and exit through TULEP. In parallel, Egypt’s Ministry of Civil Aviation has placed Cairo International Airport and all national airports on high alert, anticipating potential emergency developments that may impact regional air traffic flows. Implications for maritime routes Maritime traffic in the region appears to be operating with relative normality at the time of writing; however, a prolonged conflict—lasting weeks rather than days—could lead to significant disruptions, particularly around key maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Bab al-Mandab. These routes are critical for global energy and commercial shipping, and any sustained instability could severely impact maritime logistics. At approximately 06:00 local time in the Persian Gulf, an unidentified vessel reported abnormal Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) readings, placing it at an incorrect location. The Maritime Security Center Indian Ocean (MSCIO) has indicated this may have been caused by radioelectronic interference, raising concerns about the safety and reliability of navigational systems in the area. While Houthi forces in Yemen have not officially stated an intention to resume targeting vessels associated with Israeli-aligned nations or operators, the likelihood of such actions increases significantly if the conflict between Iran and Israel continues to escalate. The group has previously targeted commercial shipping in regional waters and may view renewed hostilities as justification for further attacks. Meanwhile, maritime activity in Israeli waters has reportedly come to a halt, with vessels grounded and port operations possibly suspended as a precautionary measure amid the heightened security threat. Expectations and recommendations :  Companies are advised to strengthen travel risk assessments and ensure internal security briefings are regularly updated. It is essential to maintain fully operable communication channels with both stakeholders and employees, particularly those in or near the affected region. Airlines should coordinate closely with IATA and relevant national aviation authorities, monitoring real-time threats and ensuring the wellbeing of flight crews. Route viability must be reassessed continually, with close attention paid to regional NOTAMs—particularly from Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia—for updates on airspace restrictions and routing guidance. Maritime operators should avoid high-risk waters and develop contingency plans for rerouting in the event of disruptions to established maritime corridors. Given the volatile and rapidly evolving nature of the conflict, all operations in Iranian, Israeli, Jordanian, and Iraqi airspace should remain suspended. Additionally, due to heightened security concerns, flights in and over Syrian (OSTT/Damascus FIR), Israeli (/Tel Aviv FIR), Lebanese (OLBB/Beirut FIR), and Jordanian (OJAC/Amman FIR) airspace should also be halted until further notice. Organisations and individuals in the region should remain in close contact with their respective embassies and monitor reliable news sources and official advisories for the latest developments. Proactive situational awareness is critical to ensuring safety and preparedness in this high-risk environment.

Date:   12/06/2025  Countries highlighted in orange may be directly involved in the potential escalation.  Countries outlined in light blue are countries from where the US removed non-essential staff. Context: The United States has begun withdrawing many non-essential personnel from its posts in the Middle East, amid growing concerns of significant destabilization in the region . Recent reports suggest a potential escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel, which could involve Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. In response, Iran may target Israeli military installations or US military bases in nearby countries. While the possibility of a land war remains minimal, attacks may be carried out through airspace over Iraq and Jordan as previously seen , with missiles and military aircraft involved.  Israel has repeatedly threatened to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities to prevent the Islamic Republic from acquiring nuclear weapons. However, with US-Iran negotiations having reached a current stalemate, Israel may now feel compelled to act. Developments supporting the possibility of increased tensions since 11 June 2025:  US Special Envoy Witkoff is set to meet Iran’s foreign minister Araghchi in Oman on 15/06/2025  amid rising tensions. Witkoff is also said to meet Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer and Mossad Director Barnea ahead of the negotiations. On 12/06/2025 , the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations . The resolution cited Iran’s repeated failures to comply with its Safeguards Agreement, particularly regarding undeclared nuclear activities and materials at multiple undisclosed locations. In response to the resolution, Iran denounced it as ‘politically driven’ and followed up on their recently made threats by announcing the launch of a third enrichment facility and upgrade of centrifuges to advanced IR-6 models. Following the heightened tensions, on 12/06/2025  Iran started large-scale military exercises across the country. On 11/06/2025 , the US Embassy in Iraq officially ordered  the departure of all non-essential staff from its embassy in Baghdad .  The same day the US State Department also authorized the voluntary departure of non-essential personnel from its embassies in Bahrain, UAE and Kuwait  ( 1 , 2 , 3 ). On 11/06/2025 , United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) warned  of increased tensions in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, advising maritime vessels and crews to take extra precautions when transiting the area . Israel-affiliated merchant shipping is assessed to be at heightened risk of reciprocal military action. On 11/06/2025 , Iran's Defence Minister Nasirzadeh warned  of strikes on US airbases in the Middle East if conflict breaks out with the US. On 11/06/2025 , US officials were told Israel is "ready to launch an operation into Iran"  according to media reports ( 1 , 2 ). Following five rounds of negotiation talks between the US and Iran, the US presented a nuclear deal proposal to Iran on 31/05/2025 , which would require Iran to eventually halt all uranium enrichment. Iran announced it would not accept this proposal on 04/06/2025  stagnating the negotiations, but later announced on 10/06/2025 that they would soon present a counter-proposal for a nuclear deal in response to the US proposal. On 20/05/2025 , US intelligence reports emerged indicating that Israel may be preparing for a military strike. The assessment was reportedly based on both public and private statements by senior Israeli officials, intercepted communications, and observed military movements suggesting the possibility of imminent action. Consequences of an escalation for aviation: Some major western airlines seem to have re-routed their flights from Iraq [ORBB/Baghdad FIR] to Saudi Arabia [OEJD/Jeddah FIR]. In April and October 2024, as tensions between Iran and Israel escalated, the airspace over Iraq was used for transit during multiple missile and drones attacks between the two countries. In the event of a renewed escalation, it is likely that this airspace will be used again for such attacks or potentially closed entirely by Iraq. As a result, increased traffic is expected in the Jeddah FIR. In case the conflict escalates beyond reciprocal strikes between Israel and Iran, to include the US involvement in strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation on American targets in the region, a wider disruption is to be expected.  The US authorized the ‘voluntary departure’ of dependents of US personnel from Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. These countries host several military installations. This could involve the temporary closure of the OMAE/Emirates FIR, OBBB/Bahrain FIR, OKAC/Kuwait FIR, and OIIX/Tehran FIR, or the implementation of temporary rerouting measures to avoid heightened risk airspaces.  If no re-routing and no airspace closure occur, operators should keep into account a heightened overflight risk stemming from surface-to-air systems and possibly cruise missiles and rockets, especially on approach and take off in airports in the region. High levels of GPS jamming are also to be expected. A thorough risk assessment would be needed before operating in the mentioned FIRs. Consequences of an escalation for maritime traffic: At the time of writing, no significant modifications of maritime traffic patterns through the Middle East were seen on open-sources. However, a potential escalation could impact shipping routes, especially around the Arabian peninsula. During previous escalations, the closure of the Persian Gulf was a serious concern. This would lead to supply chain disruptions and an increase of shipping prices, also affecting commodity prices. Caution is advised when operating in the Gulf of Oman, Strait of Hormuz, and Persian Gulf. GPS interference can also be expected. The closure or avoidance of the Persian Gulf would also increase traffic in the Red Sea and Suez Canal. In case of an escalation, the Houthis are likely to carry out missiles and drone strikes aimed at Israeli and American ships and potentially those of other Western states throughout the Red Sea. Recommendations: Review and communicate crisis management plans. Establish reliable communication with stakeholders, partners and staff. Monitor official advisories issued by foreign diplomatic missions in the country where you are located. Prepare for possible operational disruptions, applying contingency plans as needed.  Prepare for a quick departure.

Persbericht samenwerking Dyami en Instituut voor Veiligheid Dyami Academy en Instituut voor Veiligheid bundelen krachten: nieuwe trainingen tegen statelijke en maatschappelijke dreigingen nu beschikbaar Nieuwegein, … april 2025 – Dyami Academy en het Instituut voor Veiligheid (IVV) kondigen met trots hun samenwerking aan. Vanaf vandaag zijn via Dyami Academy twee nieuwe trainingen beschikbaar: de training Counter Terrorism, Extremism and Radicalisation  (CTER) en de ééndaagse training Spionage & Sabotage – Bewustwording voor iedereen die opereert in het veiligheidsdomein.  In een wereld waarin zowel statelijke actoren als binnenlandse extremistische bewegingen toenemende risico's vormen, is versterking van bewustwording en handelingsbekwaamheid essentieel. Met deze samenwerking maken Dyami Academy en IVV cruciale kennis en praktische vaardigheden toegankelijker voor veiligheidsprofessionals. Twee trainingen, één gezamenlijke missie: vergroten van veiligheid en weerbaarheid CTER-training :Deze training richt zich op het proces van polarisatie, radicalisering, extremisme en terrorisme. Deelnemers krijgen inzicht in de signalen en drijfveren die kenmerkend zijn voor mensen die radicaliseren, en leren hoe vlaggen, symbolen en gedragingen kunnen wijzen op radicale bewegingen. De training gaat in op de manieren waarop extremisme zichtbaar wordt binnen zowel extreemlinkse als extreemrechtse stromingen, en hoe politieke en religieuze motieven mensen kunnen aanzetten tot extremistische daden. Spionage & Sabotage-training :In deze ééndaagse praktijkgerichte training krijgen deelnemers inzicht in actuele statelijke dreigingen zoals spionage en sabotage. Ze leren hoe landen als Rusland, China en Iran opereren binnen Nederland, hoe spionage- en sabotage signalen te herkennen, en krijgen praktische handvatten om effectief te melden en binnen hun eigen rol en bevoegdheden actie te ondernemen. Beide trainingen zijn praktijkgericht, bevatten interactieve scenario's en worden verzorgd door ervaren professionals met achtergronden bij de politie, AIVD, Defensie en internationale veiligheid. Meer informatie en inschrijven kan hier: https://www.instituutvoorveiligheid.nl/trainingen/spionage-en-sabbotage/ Charlotte Bakker en Theo Oskam Charlotte Bakker, directeur van Dyami Academy, zegt hierover: "De dreigingen waarmee we vandaag worden geconfronteerd, zijn divers en complex. Door deze samenwerking kunnen we professionals nog beter toerusten om deze uitdagingen aan te gaan en de veiligheid in Nederland te versterken." Theo Oskam, directeur IvV, zegt hierover: “De wereld verandert snel, en dat vraagt om samenwerking. Met deze stap bundelen Dyami en de Coöperatie Instituut voor Veiligheid hun krachten om professionals op te leiden die met een brede blik en stevige basis bijdragen aan een veiligere samenleving.” Over Dyami Academy Dyami Academy ondersteunt professionals wereldwijd bij het herkennen en beheersen van dreigingen. Door middel van hoogwaardige trainingen, advisering en dreigingsanalyses draagt Dyami bij aan een veiligere samenleving. Over het Instituut voor Veiligheid Het Instituut voor Veiligheid (IVV) verzorgt opleidingen en trainingen binnen het veiligheidsdomein, gericht op bewustwording, signalering en handelingsbekwaamheid op het gebied van nationale veiligheid en crisisbeheersing. Meer informatie en inschrijven Bezoek:   www.dyami.academy Of neem contact op via: info@dyami.academy

Washington, DC Military Parade Celebrating the US Army’s 250th Anniversary, June 14th, 2025 Executive Summary A major military parade is planned for 14 June this year in Washington, DC for the 250th anniversary of the US Army’s founding. The parade, which coincides with US President Donald Trump’s birthday, although with no official connection to it, will see him actively participating in the event with a speech to the nation. The event is expected to see the participation of 200,000 spectators, 7,000 troops, 150 military vehicles, including 50 helicopters flying over the city.  The political significance of the event, along with the diversity of actors involved (public, military, political leaders), will require some of the most significant planning, risk assessment and counter-threat measures by different US government agencies, possibly comparable to presidential inaugurations in the country. These types of events are not common in the US, with the last military parade of this kind taking place in 1991 to mark the victory of Operation Desert Storm. Airspace, land, and river routes will be closed during the event, and possibly in the days leading up to it, causing significant disruptions to flights, traffic, and other non-event-related activities, including those of major companies and logistics providers. Participating According to numerous news reports and quotes from officials, approximately 150 military vehicles are expected to participate in the parade. This includes 28 M1A1 Abrams tanks, 28 Bradley and 28 Stryker armoured personnel carriers, 4 Paladin self-propelled artillery, unspecified number of towed artillery pieces, dozens of other ground vehicles, historical military vehicles such as the M4 Sherman tank, eight bands, 36 horses, in addition to around  7,000 troops marching the streets.  Airspace in the immediate area during the event will be closed, with at least 50 military helicopters (AH-64 Apache, UH-60 Black Hawk and CH-47 Chinook) flying over the capital, in addition to historical aircraft such as the B-17 bomber, P-51 fighter, and C-47 transport aircraft. An unspecified number of the US Army’s Golden Nights paratroopers will parachute down towards the end of the parade to present President Donald Trump a flag.  A total of around 200,000 people are expected to attend the event, gathered around the immediate area of where the parade, around the National Mall.  Expected Schedule The events are expected to last over 12 hours, and include events prior to the parade itself, such as exhibits of military hardware to the public. A large concert is planned after the parade at The Ellipse, a large open area adjacent to the White House. According to different reports, including official notifications, the following events are expected:  08:00 hours  - Guest entry for the Army Fitness Competition and Festival, which is expected to be in the National Mall area, a series of parks along Constitution Ave,  housing the Washington Monument, Lincoln Memorial and other historical landmarks.  14:00 hours  - Guest entry for the parade  18:30 hours   -  Parade and celebration begin 19:30   hours - Parade ends 19:30 hours - Concert at The Ellipse starts 21:30 hours  -  Event ends 21:45 hours  - Fireworks show Locations and areas affected   Before, during, and after the event, land, sea, and air routes are expected to be affected. As such, all air, land and sea traffic will require rerouting and should expect delays while travelling through the Washington, DC area and its surroundings.  Airspace Airspace in and around the capital is expected to be closed during the event as around 50 AH-64 Apaches, UH-60 Black Hawks, and CH-47 Chinooks military helicopters will be taking off from Joint Base Andrews (18 km southeast of the capital), flying in formation over the parade itself. The route takes the aircraft west over the Potomac River, where they are expected to turn north, then east over Constitution Avenue, to presumably return to the same airbase.  Presumed affected airspace above Washington, DC and surrounding areas on June 14th, 2025 Land routes Land routes into the Washington, DC area will also be affected, given the high number of military vehicles and personnel participating in the event. Military personnel and hardware are expected to depart from an area between the Pentagon and Arlington National Cemetery, head across the Arlington Memorial Bridge, northbound on 23rd St and turn onto Constitution Ave, presumably turning right heading south through the 14th St bridge (reported closed on 14 June) into Virginia as they exit the parade grounds. The parade will pass through Constitution Ave (between 15th and 23rd streets), which suggests the streets will be closed at least several days before the event, as will other streets involved in the event. Additionally, metro stations will also be affected, with confirmation that the NW entrance of the Smithsonian Metro Station is closed. The public will convene along the parade route or the Washington Monument Grounds just before the event.  Land routes affected during the parade  River routes As it usually occurs with major events, traffic through the Potomac River is expected to be closed during at least part of of the 14th of June.  While no explicit mention of closures was identified at the time of writing, maritime traffic near the 14th St Bridge, which was closed during the event, will presumably be halted. Overall, the Potomac River may experience maritime traffic disruptions between Theodore Roosevelt Island and Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport, as bridges are used by military vehicles during the parade.  Expected Potomac River closure during the event Risk Assessment   Due to the diversity of actors involved in the event, whether as participants or the general public, disruption risks remain high, both before, during, and after the event. Physical security challenges in the form of terrorism (group or lone-wolf), protests, radio interference (e.g. spoofing) and structural deficiencies (e.g. bridges, overpasses) will need to be thoroughly addressed.   Before the event The days leading up to the event will likely see heightened security in the Washington, DC area, including locations that receive and house military personnel and equipment (e.g., West Potomac Park). Areas where participants and spectators are expected during the event will also come under scrutiny. Blind spots, infrastructure and areas of protest convergence will need to be secured. Security at this stage should focus on securing and protecting priority areas, such as routes and troop housing areas, as well as uncovering planned disruptions (attacks, protests). Troops are expected to be brought into the capital around 11 June, housed at the Department of Agriculture and General Services Administration building. Additional reports state they will be sleeping on military cots, possibly at specific areas outside of those buildings.  During the event The physical security of not only the US president, but also the 200,000 civilians, 7,000 troops, and 150 military vehicles participating in the event, will remain essential. Risks such as mechanical failure, unintentional collisions and electrical jamming, in addition to planned protests or a domestic terrorism attack (firearms, IED, vehicle ramming, drone attack, etc.), aiming to disrupt the event, will remain priorities on the security list during the day.  Protests during the event, as had occurred during the last parade in 1991, are common in the Washington, DC area and also pose a disruption risk. The following open-source information on planned protests during the event was available at the time of writing: An anti-parade rally by the Refuse Fascism group is scheduled to start at 13:00 hours at Logan Circle and proceed towards the White House. The group has 78,221 followers on Facebook, with the rally announcement receiving 105 likes, 70 shares and seven comments at the time of writing.  Protests against US President Trump are planned at unspecified highways and overpass bridges between 10:00 and 12:00 hours.  Reports indicate that between 10,000 and 20,000 individuals will participate in nationwide protests at unspecified locations related to the military parade.  Protests by “No Kings” activists are reportedly not expected to take place near the parade event.  After the event  After the event, all military hardware and personnel will return to their initial areas of deployment, via air and land. Domestic terrorism attacks, traffic accidents or incidents related to loading military hardware onto larger vehicles or trains cannot be ruled out. They will require the surveillance of security and other personnel. While protests at this stage can be ruled out as serious threats, domestic terrorism on military assets remains, although less likely than during the event itself.  Traveler advice   Visitors in Washington, DC will notice heightened security in and around the city. This will be more notable in the days immediately before the military parade. One may expect longer queues in public transport hubs, possible police searches at metro stations, areas and street segments near the National Mall closed off, along with the presence of armed security forces in those areas. Visitors should keep their identity documents with them at all times and adhere to instructions given by law enforcement.  Washington, DC’s mayor has warned that flight schedules on 14 June may be paused while the parade is underway, although definitive details will not be available until the Department of Defense releases its final flyover timetable. While Ronald Reagan National, Baltimore/Washington International, and Washington Dulles all have numerous departures that day, none are currently slated for the precise parade window. Travelers should therefore check directly with their carriers for the latest status of flights in and around 14 June. Traffic heading into Washington, DC, is likely to be heavy, due to road closures and the influx of military convoys, especially around the Theodore Roosevelt Bridge, Arlington Memorial Bridge, I-395, and 14th Street bridges. In addition, streets leading to the National Mall are expected to be closed, requiring detours. Motorists should monitor real-time traffic advisories and allow extra travel time, as congestion could extend well beyond the immediate parade zone. Conclusion Overall, the 250th Army anniversary parade presents a particular convergence of risk-ridden factors, including large crowds, close formation of flights over Washington, DC, heavy military equipment alongside approximately 7,000 troops, the presence and participation of the US president and other senior politicians, among others. The most probable disruptions may come from protest groups and unforeseen incidents (collisions, technical issues). In contrast, the highest-risk disruptions, low in probability, are attacks using firearms or explosives by lone-wolf or groups against individuals at the event. Effective mitigation relies on the coordination of various government agencies and everyday citizens to report any unusual findings. A layered approach would be an effective method to counter potential threats, involving continuous monitoring and surveillance of high-risk elements.

When:  01/06/2025 What:  On 01/06/2025 , Mexico will hold its first judicial elections . Mexican citizens will directly elect nine Supreme Court justices, two magistrates for the Superior Chamber of the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary, 15 magistrates for the Regional Chambers of the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary, five members of the Judicial Disciplinary Tribunal, 464 circuit court magistrates, and 386 district court judges. This reform is unprecedented in scale: no other country in the world elects all its judges by popular vote. Mexico has never appointed judges by direct vote . Before the judicial reform, judges were appointed through a formal institutional process involving both the executive and legislative branches. Supreme Court justices were nominated by the President and confirmed by a two-thirds vote in the Senate. Federal judges were selected through a merit-based process overseen by the Federal Judicial Council, involving exams and career progression. State-level judges were appointed through varying state-specific procedures, often involving governors and local legislatures. In  this new system, candidates must first be evaluated and nominated by committees representing the executive, legislative and judicial branches, but the final selection is entirely in the hands of voters.  The promoters  of the judicial reform, which was first presented in February 2024 by former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) and will be implemented by his successor President Claudia Sheinbaum, argue that direct elections favor accountability and combat corruption and nepotism . Advocates also highlight high levels of impunity and delayed justice within the existing system.   The reform, however, has also drawn much criticism  from opposition figures, judicial institutions, the US State Department, the Organization of American States, and the United Nations. Thousands also participated in protests against the reform. Critics highlight that the reform makes the judiciary susceptible to corruption and can compromise the independence of the branch, as judges may be concerned with public approval, potentially seeking future office. The influence of criminal organizations in the elections is also a concern for many.  Analysis :  The 2024 Presidential elections were the most violent  in Mexico’s history. Despite the current election having recorded less violence in comparison, the primary risk remains violence and threats from cartels to both candidates and voters . At least four candidates have received threats and stopped running. Organized crime groups are expected to exert influence, particularly in regions where they hold substantial power.  Another risk stems from a potential erosion of judicial independence . Despite regulations prohibiting party endorsements and campaign donations, political groups have likely attempted to sway voting behavior. Mexico’s electoral authority is currently investigating  claims that political parties have tried to influence voters in Nuevo Leon and Mexico City. This creates risks of politicizing the judiciary and undermining its independence.  The absence of strong vetting processes for judicial candidates could lead to the election of individuals lacking the necessary qualifications or integrity . In January, the selection committee had 18 days to interview 10.887 eligible candidates .   The ballot includes candidates with questionable qualifications, in some instances  candidates with no experience, well beyond retirement age, or with links to the business or political world. In other cases , candidates have criminal links or previous criminal charges. While the full impact on the judiciary remains uncertain, the questionable qualifications of some candidates have already raised doubts about the new system’s integrity. Mexico is also the first country to attempt direct elections for all judicial posts at every level, making the process unpredictable and logistically challenging. Polls indicate  low voter turnout, with only about a third of eligible voters expected to participate. Aside from that, the majority of people polled did not know any of the candidates on the ballot. The general public’s lack of knowledge about candidates increased the likelihood of unqualified or controversial figures being elected. But most importantly: the reform’s intention may backfire, as this new system creates a dynamic in which judges are reliant on the public for approval. This dynamic exposes them to political pressures, populist sentiment and possible intimidation by Mexico’s powerful criminal organizations.  Recommendations: Mexico has witnessed significant protests over the judicial reform, including an incident last year where demonstrators stormed the Senate building to disrupt the debate on the overhaul.  If you are traveling in Mexico around the elections on 01/06/2025, exercise caution and steer clear of protest areas. Monitor local news and government travel advisories for updates on protest activity and security risks in your area. Avoid travel to high-risk regions such as Colima, Guerrero, Michoacán, Sinaloa, Tamaulipas, and Zacatecas, as these areas experience elevated levels of crime and violence. Be aware that security checkpoints and increased police or military presence are common during times of heightened tension; comply with authorities and carry identification at all times.