Update II: Situation in the Middle East

laure7549
Jun 16
5 min read

Date: 16/06/2025

Where: Middle East, particularly Iran,

Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria

Who’s involved: Israel, Iran

Areas of major Israeli targeting in blue

Key developments

Exchanges of attacks between Iran and Israel are continuing, particularly during the night-time hours. However, the night of 15 to 16 June witnessed a relative lull in intensity, with apparently fewer missiles launched and fewer targets struck by either side, according to open sources.
Energy-producing infrastructure, including gas fields, refineries, and major power stations, is now being actively targeted by both countries, in addition to military and government facilities.
There are unconfirmed and independently unverified reports suggesting that members of the Iranian political elite, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, may have fled the country, either permanently or temporarily, with Russia cited as a possible destination. Numerous unofficial but credible sources have indicated this, although it has yet to be independently verified.
Iran has primarily conducted its attacks using what appear to be hypersonic missiles, ballistic missiles, and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), while Israel seems to be relying on aircraft operating via Jordanian, Syrian, and Iraqi airspace to carry out its strikes within Iran.
The airspace of both Iran (OIIX/Tehran FIR) and Israel (LLLL/Tel Aviv FIR) remains closed due to the ongoing threat posed by missile fire, UAVs, and military aviation conducting operations. In addition, Iraqi airspace (ORBB/Baghdad FIR) is also closed at least until 16/06/2025 19.00UTC
Negotiations between the United States and Iran, which had been anticipated for Sunday 15 June in Oman prior to the Israeli strikes of 13 June, did not take place. It remains unclear if or when further talks might be scheduled.
Houthi forces claimed to have launched “several Palestine-2 hypersonic missiles” at Israel around 15 June, following Israeli strikes on their assets in Yemen that reportedly killed a “senior leader.” However, attacks on ships remain paused for now.
Maritime traffic remains unchanged, including through the Straits of Bab al Mandab and Hormuz. There are no signs on social media or from official sources of imminent danger to shipping, though this could change at short notice. Most vessels near Bab al Mandab have non-Western origins or destinations (e.g. Singapore, India, Russia, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, China). Ships linked to European or US ports continue to avoid the area due to the risk of Houthi attacks from Yemen.
No new independent reports on radiological and chemical contamination from Iran’s nuclear facilities have been reported since the IInternational Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) 13 June report, reporting radiation inside Iran’s Natanz facility, but none outside the facility itself.
Crude oil and other energy prices appear to have leveled out, readjusting to the ongoing situation after an almost 8% increase the past two days, the current situation may see a further rise, with prices reacting to increased or larger-scale attacks.

Context:

The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated into one of the most direct and intense confrontations in the history of their long-standing hostility. The crisis was sparked by an extensive Israeli strike on 13 June 2025, targeting key Iranian military and strategic facilities. This prompted a swift and large-scale Iranian retaliation, using hypersonic and ballistic missiles and UAVs to attack Israeli territory. Israel has responded with sustained air operations, using aircraft flying through Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi airspace to strike deep into Iran. As the conflict has intensified, both sides have increasingly targeted not only military and government sites but also vital energy infrastructure including gas fields, refineries and power stations. Iran has reported at least 78 dead and 300 injured, while Israel has confirmed 14 fatalities and 390 wounded.

The confrontation has drawn in wider geopolitical actors. Open support for Iran has been signalled by Pakistan, China and Russia, while reports indicate that Hezbollah and other Iran-aligned proxies in Syria and Jordan are preparing to attack Israel directly or infiltrate its territory. There are unverified but persistent reports that elements of Iran’s political elite — possibly including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — have fled to Russia, either temporarily or permanently. Israeli authorities have stated they are prepared for this conflict to continue for weeks, with no immediate signs of de-escalation. Airspace across much of the region remains closed due to the threat of missile attacks, UAV strikes and military operations. Flights to and from affected areas have been cancelled or rerouted, with delays also affecting airports in Lebanon, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait. Additionally, it is recommended to suspend all operations in and over Syria (OSTT/Damascus FIR), Lebanon (OLBB, Beirut FIR), and Jordan (OJAC/Amman FIR) due to increased regional instability and elevated security risks. Although maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab remains steady, oil prices have surged, adding further strain to global markets. Travellers to the Middle East and Gulf region face increasing uncertainty, and governments, including the Netherlands, are expected to issue updated guidance in the coming days.

Conclusion:

The upcoming days or weeks may see continued volatility due to hostilities, particularly should the US directly intervene. Open-source reports of UK and German military aircraft flying over Jordan, in one case a Royal Air Force Airbus KC2 Voyager air-to-air refueling aircraft possibly suggests a silent, albeit Western implication supporting Israeli aircraft conducting airstrikes on Iran. Comprehensive damage assessments remain difficult, given the limited and often unverifiable reports released by both sides, as well as the reliance on footage and claims circulating on social media. Israel has primarily struck sites in Iran’s western, central and north-western regions, while Iran has mainly targeted the Tel Aviv metropolitan area, parts of northern Israel and Jerusalem.

Geopolitically, Iran appears to be receiving either military or political support from Pakistan, China and Russia, with possible interventions from Hezbollah and pro-Iranian groups in Syria against Israel. The Israeli leadership signalled that it continues fully engaged for prolonged operations, possibly lasting weeks. This contrasts with media statements quoting Iran’s foreign minister, who has indicated that attacks on Israel may stop should Israel cease its operations, although there is no official indication of the latter halting attacks

Internally, the leadership of both countries may experience pressure from opposition groups. If the current Iranian government were to fall, its successor might not be pro-Israeli, as some might assume. Instead, it would likely emerge from a coalition of nationalist political forces, reflecting Iran’s deeply rooted nationalist sentiment, a sentiment that has endured for more than half a century, especially since the 1953 US-UK-backed overthrow of Prime Minister Mossadegh’s government. Meanwhile, although Netanyahu has secured backing from certain sectors within Israel, significant opposition to his leadership and policies persists. This was most evident in the mass anti-government protests as recently as March of this year, when tens of thousands repeatedly took to the streets, leading to at least a dozen arrests in cities like Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Thus, a prolongation of the conflict risks heightened internal instability, driven by their respective domestic opposition movements.