Update X: Situation in the Middle East

laure7549
Jun 25
4 min read

Date: 25/06/2025

Where: Middle East, particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Syria, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE

Who’s involved: Israel, Iran, United States,

Areas of Israeli (blue) attacks between 24 and 25 June 2025

Key developments

Confrontations between Israel and Iran subsided between 24 and 25 June, following the acceptance of a US-brokered ceasefire. While the latter half of 24 June (Israel-Iran time) saw no major attacks from either side, reports indicate that Israel launched a significant strike within an hour of the ceasefire being announced, before subsequently halting further operations against Iran.
On 24 June, Israel reportedly carried out a strike on a radar installation in the Iranian Caspian Sea town of Babolsar, along with an attack that killed an Iranian nuclear scientist and his family. Following these incidents, no further significant attacks were officially reported. In the early hours of 25 June, authorities in Tel Aviv stated that two UAVs, believed to have originated from Iranian territory, were intercepted.
No significant Iranian attacks on Israel were reported after mid-day 24 June.
No retaliatory strikes were launched against Iran following its attack on the Qatari airbase housing US personnel and equipment, which had reportedly been evacuated in advance.
Information on the precise damage caused by US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, as well as Iran’s attack on the Qatari base hosting US and UK forces, remains limited. No changes in radioactivity levels have been reported to date.
Iraqi airspace has officially reopened for flights, while Jordanian airspace continues to operate for international traffic. Increased activity has also been observed in Syrian airspace, including international flights. Israeli airspace remains open, though most operations appear limited to Israeli carriers. Iranian airspace shows no signs of activity and remains effectively closed.
At the time of writing, airspace over Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE had reopened following temporary closures prompted by Iranian attacks on Qatar.
No Houthi attacks on maritime vessels have been reported in the past 24 hours. Despite speculation over a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, maritime traffic through both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab remains largely unaffected. However, GPS jamming continues in the Persian Gulf, particularly near the UAE coast and the Strait of Hormuz.
The US aircraft carriers USS Nimitz and USS Carl Vinson remain deployed in the Middle East, supported by at least two guided-missile destroyers in the Red Sea and five in the eastern Mediterranean. In total, over a dozen US warships are operating in the region, along with approximately 100 aircraft stationed aboard the carriers.

Given the unprecedented level of volatility and the risk of unintended escalation, all non-essential operations (ground and overflight) to the affected areas, including Israel, Iraq, Syria and Iran should be avoided until further notice.

Context

The recent confrontation between Iran and Israel marks one of the most direct and dangerous escalations in their history. The crisis began on 13 June, when Israel launched major strikes on Iranian military, strategic and leadership targets. Iran responded with hypersonic and ballistic missiles, UAVs, and attacks on energy infrastructure. Over 500 people have been killed or injured, including civilians in major cities. Israeli air operations reached deep into Iranian territory via Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi airspace, and speculations through Azerbaijani airspace. The US and some European governments backed Israel, while others, such as China, Russia and several Gulf states condemned the attacks. Following US attacks on Iranian nuclear sites on 22 June, Iran targeted the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, itself resulting in condemnation from regional countries. Amid mounting destruction and international pressure, a ceasefire brokered by US President Trump was announced on 24 June. However, Israel reportedly launched a final large strike within an hour of the ceasefire, after which both sides largely paused hostilities.

Airspace across Israel, Iraq, Syria and Jordan appears to be open, though Israeli airspace remains limited in use to its national airline companies. Iranian airspace, by contrast, remains highly restricted, with no commercial flights observed over its territory. Air traffic has resumed over Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE. The extent of damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities is still unclear, with indications that nuclear material may have been relocated prior to the strikes, or that key sites were not significantly affected. Further indications of efforts to continue with nuclear enrichment were noted in Iran’s parliament approving to cease cooperation with the IAEA on 25 June, pending ratification from the country’s executive body. While Iran’s nuclear programme continues, civilian air travel across the region continues to face disruption, with rerouting, insurance complications, and ongoing evacuation efforts taking place under media blackouts. Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab remains active, though GPS jamming persists, particularly near the Strait of Hormuz. A significant military build-up continues in the region, with two US carrier groups deployed and reports of Chinese naval presence in the Persian Gulf. With tensions at their highest in years and no progress on diplomatic engagement, the risk of renewed conflict and prolonged instability remains high.

Looking ahead

The ceasefire between Iran and Israel has opened a narrow window for de-escalation, enabling the gradual reopening of regional airspace over Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE. Iranian airspace remains closed, while Israeli airspace is operating primarily for domestic carriers. Civilian aviation continues to face widespread disruption, with ongoing flight cancellations, rerouting, and elevated operational risks. Airlines are contending with higher costs, complex navigation requirements, increased insurance premiums, and difficulties coordinating potential evacuation flights. Although the US claims to have damaged Iran’s nuclear facilities, there are growing concerns that Iran may still be pursuing a nuclear weapon as a deterrent. Israeli officials have signaled that their military campaign could resume shortly, placing the fragile ceasefire at risk. Consequently, most governments are expected to delay lifting travel restrictions or advising citizens to return.

The maritime sector remains similarly exposed. Key shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab are currently operational, but the threat of renewed Houthi attacks or Iranian-imposed restrictions could severely impact global trade. Maritime operators are already facing increased insurance costs, tightened security measures, and possible delays. Any escalation—particularly involving further progress in Iran’s nuclear programme—could prompt a regional arms race, with countries such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt potentially seeking similar capabilities. In the absence of credible diplomatic efforts, the risk of renewed conflict and lasting regional instability remains high.