Intel Brief: Renewed Israel-Iran Tensions
- laure7549
- Jun 13
- 3 min read
Updated: Jun 16
Date: 13/06/2025
Where: Middle East, particularly Iran,
Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria
Who’s involved: Israel, Iran
What happened:
In the early hours of 13 June 2025, Israel carried out massive airstrikes on what it called strategic targets in Iran, including military installations and the nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz. Official reports from Israel stated that more than 200 fighter jets participated in ‘Operation Rising Lion’, which resulted in the death of Iran’s military Chief of Staff, commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, commander of a major military coordination center, the Khatam Al Anbiya base, as well as five high ranking scientists responsible for the country’s nuclear program.
Iranian authorities vowed retaliation against Israel, with reports of at least 100 drones launched by them towards Israel over Iraqi and Syrian airspace. The drones also breached Jordanian airspace earlier in the day, prompting Jordan to intercept a number of drones. Unconfirmed reports suggest air forces from Israel, Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, France, and the UK are also engaged in attacking Iranian drones, with the UK having issued statements denying their involvement.
Significant tensions are expected in the Middle East, affecting maritime and air logistics, additionally, neighboring countries may be put in a state of heightened awareness, with increased security personnel and possible limitations on the movement of individuals.
Analysis:
Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen pledged their full support for Iran, condemning Israel’s airstrikes, suggesting they may either increase or prolong launching missiles towards Israel, as well as resume attacks on any maritime vessel perceived to be supporting Israel.
Reports suggest the US and neighboring states such as Jordan and Qatar are also assisting in downing Iranian drones towards Israel. A prolongation of the tensions may result in a spillover into neighboring areas, widening the conflict zone.
The drones launched by Iran may have been deployed as decoy to obscure or precede an impending strike. Israeli air defense capabilities may also be weakened by waves of either decoy or low-cost missile and drones launched prior to a larger missile attack by Iran, in which case, other countries, particularly the US, may be required to step in and provide support to Israel.
Iran (OIIX/Tehran FIR) and Iraq (ORBB/Baghdad FIR) have closed their airspace until at least 10:00 UTC and 09:00UTC on Friday June 13 respectively. Many carriers had already begun avoiding these FIR’s due to the warning signs over the past few days.
Jordan’s Queen Alia International Airport and Israel’s Ben Gurion International Airport have both suspended all operations. In contrast, airports in Bahrain and Kuwait continue to operate, though some flights have been cancelled as a precaution.
With evolving airspace restrictions, Saudi Arabia's skies have become increasingly congested, as flights that once traversed Iranian and Iraqi airspace are now being rerouted through its territory. A prolongation of the conflict may see a spillover into the South Caucasus, affecting a major air corridor through Georgia and Azerbaijan.
Maritime vessels in and around the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Gulf of Oman and eastern Mediterranean Sea appear to continue their routes, although heightened security in the region may render their routes dangerous. Additionally, Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen may resume attacks on vessels transiting within their reach as they had previously done, possibly expanding targets, forcing cargo and tanker ships to reroute around Africa’s southern Cape of Good Hope, significantly extending travel time.
Expectations and recommendations:
It is expected to see an increased risk of missile or drone attacks from Iranian proxies, particularly from Yemen or southern Lebanon, targeting Israeli territory or interest. Heightened military readiness and possible retaliatory strikes by Israel or the US raises the likelihood of further regional escalation.
In light of the current conflict and its escalating, retaliatory nature, it is strongly recommended to continue avoiding operations in and over Iran (OIIX/Tehran FIR) and Iraq (ORBB/Baghdad FIR).
Additionally, it is recommended to suspend all operations in and over Syria (OSTT/Damascus FIR), Israel (LLLL/Tel Aviv FIR), Lebanon (OLBB/Beirut FIR), and Jordan (OJAC/Amman FIR) due to increased regional instability and elevated security risks, until further notice.
