Update III: Situation in the Middle East

alessia988
2 days ago
5 min read

Date: 17/06/2025

Where: Middle East, particularly Iran,

Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria

Who’s involved: Israel, Iran

Key developments

Between 16 and 17 June, there appeared to be a media blackout in both Iran and Israel, with limited unofficial information on exchanges of attacks, suggesting both countries may be actively working to suppress the publication of information from private sources, particularly on social media. This follows hundreds of videos showing attacks over the past three days. Media reporting the continuation of attacks on Tel Aviv and Tehran, with little details.
While Israel’s head of state, Benjamin Netanyahu, has made several appearances during the confrontation, the whereabouts of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, remain unknown. He has not appeared in public, fuelling unverified reports that he may have fled to Russia.
The airspace over both Iran (OIIX/Tehran FIR) and Israel (LLLL/Tel Aviv FIR) remains closed owing to the ongoing threat from missile strikes, unmanned aerial vehicles and military aviation activity. In addition, Iraqi airspace (ORBB/Baghdad FIR) is also closed at least until 16 June 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Nevatim airbase in central Israel was reportedly targeted with missiles from Iran, though the extent of the damage remains unspecified. The base had previously been targeted by Iran during the October confrontation in 2024.
The leaders of Russia and Turkey issued a joint statement condemning Israel’s attacks on Iran and calling for an immediate end to hostilities. Turkey’s president, Tayyip Erdogan, later announced that his country plans to increase its medium and long-range missile stockpile due to ongoing developments in the region.
The US has deployed dozens of aircraft, including refuelling planes, to its bases across Europe, as well as the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz, which is en route to the Middle East to join the USS Carl Vinson’s carrier strike group.
The US President issued a statement in which he urged “Iran should have signed the deal… everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran,” his participation in the G7 summit was cut short, as was Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s trip to Canada. The US National Security Council was told to “be prepared for their return,” fueling rumours of a possible US participation against Iran. Although president Trump later stated his return had “nothing to do with a ceasefire.”
Iran’s IRIB state media studio was attacked by Israel while broadcasting live, killing two employees, a move Iran reportedly responded to with missiles, however damage and the extent of the response remains undetermined.
Ben Gurion International Airport remains closed, with operations suspended in line with official notification from airport authorities. Other airports in the region remain operational, though with numerous cancellations and delays, particularly at Beirut International, Qatar’s Hamad and Amman’s Queen Alia International. Airports in Bahrain and the UAE appear to be operating with minimal delays.
There are increasing reports of electronic interference in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, affecting the automatic identification systems (AIS) and navigation of maritime vessels transiting the area. Multiple incidents have been reported to UKMTO, which continues to advise vessels to transit with caution.
Embassies such as the UK, France, China, South Korea and Russia among others have advised their citizens to leave Israel. With some, such as the UK, advising against travel to parts of Saudi Arabia and Jordan updated on 17 June 2025.
Crude oil and other energy prices appear to have leveled out, continuing to readjust, dropping around 4% after an 8% gain due to the ongoing situation.

Context:

The conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated into one of the most direct and intense confrontations in the history of their long-standing hostility. The crisis began with a large-scale Israeli strike on 13 June 2025 targeting key Iranian military and strategic facilities, including the homes of senior political-military figures and scientists, prompting swift Iranian retaliation with hypersonic and ballistic missiles and UAVs. Israel has sustained air operations deep into Iran, flying through Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi airspace, while both sides have increasingly targeted energy infrastructure alongside military and government sites. The fighting has caused significant casualties, drawn in wider geopolitical actors and led to widespread airspace closures, flight disruptions and surging oil prices, though energy markets are now readjusting following an initial spike.

After three days of intense attack exchanges between Tel Aviv and Tehran, between 16 and 17 June, a media blackout appeared to limit unofficial reporting of attacks, suggesting efforts by both countries to suppress information, especially on social media. The airspace over Iran, Israel and Iraq remains closed, with increasing delays across the region and ongoing electronic interference affecting maritime navigation. Russia and Turkey issued a joint statement condemning Israel’s actions, while the US appears to be reinforcing its military presence and fuelled speculation about direct involvement. Several embassies, including those of the UK, France, China and Russia, have advised citizens to leave Israel, and governments are updating travel warnings across the Middle East as the crisis continues with no sign of de-escalation.

Conclusion:

In the days and weeks ahead, the situation is expected to remain extremely volatile, with the risk of a wider regional escalation increasing, particularly if the United States shifts from reinforcing its military presence to direct involvement. The emergence of opposing geopolitical blocs, with Russia, China, Turkey and Pakistan critical of Israel and the European Union, UK, United States and India offering support to Israel, adds further complexity to the crisis. Large pro-Iranian rallies in Iraq and reported backing from Afghanistan and Pakistan raise the likelihood of further political or proxy involvement. Internally, the conflict may heighten instability within both Iran and Israel, with reports of unrest, including the escape of hundreds of prisoners during riots in Iran, pointing to possible cracks within the Iranian state. At present, there is no indication of either government collapsing, although serious attacks are expected to continue. Israel’s head of state, Benjamin Netanyahu, appears to be seeking greater US involvement, possibly with the aim of toppling Iran’s current leadership. Details on troop movements and military deployments remain limited, though reports indicate US military aircraft departed for Europe the previous day.

The threat to airspace, maritime routes and company security is likely to remain severe. Airspace closures across Iran, Israel, Iraq and parts of the broader region are expected to persist, with the possibility of further restrictions posing risks to aviation safety and commercial operations. Maritime routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, continue to face heightened dangers from electronic interference, potential attacks on shipping and disruption to vital energy supplies. Companies with interests in or connected to the region should maintain close monitoring, review contingency measures and safeguard personnel and assets against the evolving threat landscape.