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Date : 24/06/2025 Situation in Sudan as of 01/06/2025. All credits go to @ThomasVLinge on X .   The blue triangle was added by the author. What happened?   On 24/06/2025, a New War Cargo Ilyushin IL-76TD freighter (Reg. EX-76019) departed from the UAE and landed at Kufra Airport in southeastern Libya. This flight is part of the critical logistical network that enables the RSF, which, following a joint offensive with Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), seized control of the strategic Egypt-Sudan-Libya tri-border area earlier this month on 10/06/2025. On 11/06/2025, the RSF announced that they seized control of this strategic tri-border area, as indicated by the blue triangle in the image above.  That same day, the SAF announced that they had withdrawn from the area. The Sudanese army described the joint attack  as an “outright aggression against Sudan” and vowed to protect national sovereignty.  Analysis Following a joint offensive with LNA troops from Libya, the RSF seized control of the strategic Sudan-Libya-Egypt border triangle— a crucial smuggling route and the gateway to Libya and Egypt. This is a significant win for the RSF after months of retreat, most notably from Khartoum and surrounding villages and cities.  The RSF's capture of the border triangle is significant for two reasons. First of all, a strong presence in western Sudan allows the RSF to open a new front in the Northern State and Nile Valley, areas that are important to the Sudanese army and, until recently, basically impossible to reach. They can now attack the whole of Sudan from the west. A second reason this is a strategic win for the RSF is that it provides them with a long border with Libya.  This border is crucial for the RSF as it works to reduce its dependence on supply routes that primarily pass through Chad. Reports indicate that Chadian President Mahamat Déby is facing mounting domestic pressure from military generals to block the RSF's use of eastern Chad as a supply corridor. The RSF is therefore trying to diversify its supply lines. As a consequence, there have been reports  of increased air traffic into Libya’s Kufra district, allegedly originating from the United Arab Emirates, carrying military aid intended for the RSF. Conclusion After months of fighting in Sudan during which the SAF had the clear upper hand, this development reflects the first real win for the RSF. It remains to be seen if the RSF can capitalize on this win. It must also be noted that the border area is far from the current RSF strongholds in North Darfur, and the RSF risks overstretching its forces, which, especially after recent months, have taken significant losses. Nevertheless,  if these potential risks are avoided, control over this corridor brings significant strategic benefits for the Rapid Support Forces.  Not only does it provide them with a new front to launch operations on SAF strongholds previously considered out of reach, but it also opens up a frontier with Libya, which could become a new supply route for military support.  Aside from that, this also brings implications for the broader region.  This is the first time that the Sudanese civil war spilled over the border. For now, it remains to be seen what the consequences of that will be, but this threat of regional spillover can lead to dangerous and unpredictable situations. It also puts Egypt, which neighbors Sudan to the North, in a predicament.  Egypt is a key ally to the SAF, but also supports Haftar. This puts Cairo in a precarious position, given that the RSF is approaching its southern border.  This development in the Sudanese civil war indicates that this conflict is far from over. The RSF, led by Mohamed ‘Hemedti’ Dagalo,  intends to continue its battle against the SAF and its leader, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Khartoum/HSSS FIR remains closed.

Date:  25/06/2025  Where:  Middle East, particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Syria, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE Who’s involved: Israel, Iran, United States,   Areas of Israeli (blue) attacks between 24 and 25 June 2025 Key developments Confrontations between Israel and Iran subsided between 24 and 25 June , following the acceptance of a US-brokered ceasefire. While the latter half of 24 June (Israel-Iran time) saw no major attacks from either side, reports indicate that Israel launched a significant strike within an hour of the ceasefire being announced, before subsequently halting further operations against Iran. On 24 June,  Israel reportedly carried out a strike on a radar installation in the Iranian Caspian Sea town of Babolsar , along with an attack that killed an Iranian nuclear scientist and his family. Following these incidents, no further significant attacks were officially reported. In the early hours of 25 June, authorities in Tel Aviv stated that two UAVs, believed to have originated from Iranian territory, were intercepted. No significant Iranian attacks on Israel were reported after mid-day 24 June.   No retaliatory strikes were launched against Iran following its attack on the Qatari airbase housing US personnel and equipment, which had reportedly been evacuated in advance. Information on the precise damage caused by US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, as well as Iran’s attack on the Qatari base hosting US and UK forces, remains limited . No changes in radioactivity levels have been reported to date. Iraqi airspace has officially reopened for flights, while Jordanian airspace continues to operate for international traffic. Increased activity has also been observed in Syrian airspace, including international flights. Israeli airspace remains open, though most operations appear limited to Israeli carriers. Iranian airspace shows no signs of activity and remains effectively closed. At the time of writing, airspace over Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE had reopened following temporary closures prompted by Iranian attacks on Qatar. No Houthi attacks on maritime vessels have been reported in the past 24 hours. Despite speculation over a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, maritime traffic through both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab remains largely unaffected. However, GPS jamming continues in the Persian Gulf, particularly near the UAE coast and the Strait of Hormuz. The US aircraft carriers USS Nimitz  and USS Carl Vinson  remain deployed in the Middle East , supported by at least two guided-missile destroyers in the Red Sea and five in the eastern Mediterranean. In total, over a dozen US warships are operating in the region, along with approximately 100 aircraft stationed aboard the carriers. Given the unprecedented level of volatility and the risk of unintended escalation, all non-essential operations (ground and overflight) to the affected areas, including Israel, Iraq, Syria and Iran should be avoided until further notice.  Context The recent confrontation between Iran and Israel marks one of the most direct and dangerous escalations in their history. The crisis began on 13 June, when Israel launched major strikes on Iranian military, strategic and leadership targets. Iran responded with hypersonic and ballistic missiles, UAVs, and attacks on energy infrastructure. Over 500 people have been killed or injured, including civilians in major cities. Israeli air operations reached deep into Iranian territory via Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi airspace, and speculations through Azerbaijani airspace. The US and some European governments backed Israel, while others, such as China, Russia and several Gulf states condemned the attacks. Following US attacks on Iranian nuclear sites on 22 June, Iran targeted the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, itself resulting in condemnation from regional countries. Amid mounting destruction and international pressure, a ceasefire brokered by US President Trump was announced on 24 June. However, Israel reportedly launched a final large strike within an hour of the ceasefire, after which both sides largely paused hostilities. Airspace across Israel, Iraq, Syria and Jordan appears to be open, though Israeli airspace remains limited in use to its national airline companies. Iranian airspace, by contrast, remains highly restricted, with no commercial flights observed over its territory. Air traffic has resumed over Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE. The extent of damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities is still unclear, with indications that nuclear material may have been relocated prior to the strikes, or that key sites were not significantly affected. Further indications of efforts to continue with nuclear enrichment were noted in Iran’s parliament approving to cease cooperation with the IAEA on 25 June, pending ratification from the country’s executive body. While Iran’s nuclear programme continues, civilian air travel across the region continues to face disruption, with rerouting, insurance complications, and ongoing evacuation efforts taking place under media blackouts. Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab remains active, though GPS jamming persists, particularly near the Strait of Hormuz. A significant military build-up continues in the region, with two US carrier groups deployed and reports of Chinese naval presence in the Persian Gulf. With tensions at their highest in years and no progress on diplomatic engagement, the risk of renewed conflict and prolonged instability remains high. Looking ahead The ceasefire between Iran and Israel has opened a narrow window for de-escalation, enabling the gradual reopening of regional airspace over Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE. Iranian airspace remains closed, while Israeli airspace is operating primarily for domestic carriers. Civilian aviation continues to face widespread disruption, with ongoing flight cancellations, rerouting, and elevated operational risks. Airlines are contending with higher costs, complex navigation requirements, increased insurance premiums, and difficulties coordinating potential evacuation flights. Although the US claims to have damaged Iran’s nuclear facilities, there are growing concerns that Iran may still be pursuing a nuclear weapon as a deterrent. Israeli officials have signaled that their military campaign could resume shortly, placing the fragile ceasefire at risk. Consequently, most governments are expected to delay lifting travel restrictions or advising citizens to return. The maritime sector remains similarly exposed. Key shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab are currently operational, but the threat of renewed Houthi attacks or Iranian-imposed restrictions could severely impact global trade. Maritime operators are already facing increased insurance costs, tightened security measures, and possible delays. Any escalation—particularly involving further progress in Iran’s nuclear programme—could prompt a regional arms race, with countries such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt potentially seeking similar capabilities. In the absence of credible diplomatic efforts, the risk of renewed conflict and lasting regional instability remains high.

Date:   24/06/2025  Where:  Middle East, particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Syria, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE Who’s involved: Israel, Iran, United States, Qatar, Iraq Areas of Israeli (blue), Iranian (green) and unknown targeting (grey) between 23 and 24 June 2025 Key developments Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar came under aerial attack by Iran at around 22:00 Qatari time on 23 June 2025 , with ballistic missiles targeting the base, which hosts the largest concentration of US, UK, and Qatari military assets in the region. No injuries or major damage were reported, as Qatari authorities stated that nearly all incoming missiles were intercepted. The US, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Palestinian Authority, Bahrain, Kuwait and UAE all officially condemned Iran’s attack on Qatar as a violation of sovereignty , while France stated their “solidarity with Qatar” amid the attacks. China called on the parties to show restraint  stating that the US attack on Iran sent “wrong signals to the world,” while Turkey, Russia and Pakistan refrained from officially condemning the attack.  Early on 24 June (Iran-Israeli time), both Tel Aviv and Tehran had officially acknowledged that a ceasefire was in place, following a similar statement by US president Trump.  Between 23 and 24 June 2025, Israel experienced an increased number of air raid alerts during the morning , indicating the most intense wave of ballistic missile strikes from Iran in the past ten days. These attacks reportedly killed at least four Israelis, following Israel’s strike the previous day on IRGC facilities, where Israel claimed “hundreds” were killed. Additionally, Taji military base in Iraq was reportedly targeted by an unknown side, according to Iraqi officials, in what was the first time Iraqi soil has been targeted during the confrontation.  Israeli officials reported targeting IRGC facilities, Evin Prison in Tehran, and ballistic missile launchers in western Iran using at least 15 fighter jets. Strikes also hit Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon’s Jezzine and Nabatieh areas.  Israeli attacks on Iran during the time period of this report appear to have decreased, compared to previous days.  Iran launched ballistic missiles and UAVs targeting northeastern Israel (Golan Heights), Be'er Sheva, Jerusalem, Haifa, and Tel Aviv on unspecified targets, with residential areas reported as targeted, killing at least eight, in what appears to be one of the largest attacks since the start of the conflict . Airspace over Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE was temporarily closed during the night of 23 to 24 June, and has since reopened at the time of this report. Hundreds of flights were cancelled or delayed throughout 24 June at airports in Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, the UAE, and particularly Qatar. Information on the precise damage from US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, as well as Iran’s attack on the Qatari base hosting US and UK forces, remains limited.  There have been no reports of changes in radioactivity levels, nor any announced US retaliation for Iran’s attack on the Qatari base. No attacks on maritime vessels by Houthi forces have been reported in the past 24 hours. Despite speculation about a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab remains largely uninterrupted . GPS jamming and interference continue in the Persian Gulf, particularly near the Emirati coast and the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing,  there is no indication that US military or naval vessels have withdrawn from the Middle East.  The USS Carl Vinson, USS Nimitz, over 18 warships, and around 100 military aircraft remain within striking distance of Iran. Given the unprecedented level of volatility and the risk of unintended escalation, it is strongly advised to avoid all non-essential operations (ground and overflight) to the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia until at least 25 June. The current advice to avoid any operations in or over Israel, Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon remains in effect. Context: The confrontation between Iran and Israel has escalated into one of the most direct and dangerous in their history, setting off a chain of events with serious consequences for the region. The crisis began on 13 June 2025, when Israel launched large-scale strikes against key Iranian military and strategic sites, including the residences of senior officials and scientists. Iran responded with hypersonic and ballistic missiles, as well as UAVs, with both sides expanding their attacks to target energy infrastructure and government buildings. Israeli air operations have penetrated deep into Iranian territory, crossing Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi airspace. At least 500 people have been killed or injured on both sides, including many civilians in major cities. The international response has been divided, with the United States and some European governments backing Israel, while China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, Pakistan and Afghanistan condemned Israel’s initial strikes. Following US attacks on Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan on 22 June, Tehran launched missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which hosts the largest contingent of US forces in the region. Regional states condemned the attack, while China, Russia, Pakistan and Turkey refrained from issuing formal condemnation. Following Iran’s attacks on the Qatari airbase, on 24 June US President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. However, hostilities have continued. Airspace over Iran, Israel, Iraq, Syria and Jordan remains closed or heavily restricted, while maritime traffic continues despite increasing GPS interference near the Strait of Hormuz and the Israeli coast. Both countries have imposed media blackouts since 17 June, though amateur footage has revealed widespread destruction caused by the strikes. Two US carrier strike groups remain deployed in the Middle East, comprising around 18 warships and 100 aircraft, alongside reports of Chinese naval vessels in the Persian Gulf. The confrontation between Israel and Iran has led to the highest level of tension in the region in years, with tens of thousands of foreign nationals stranded in Israel, Iran and neighboring countries due to airspace closures and flight cancellations. Evacuation efforts have proved challenging, with numerous countries dispatching special flights to repatriate their citizens. Given the intensity of the attacks, neither side appears willing to engage in negotiations — particularly Iran, which now seems increasingly determined to continue its nuclear energy program, raising concerns that this could ultimately result in the acquisition of a nuclear weapon, despite official denials. Looking ahead: Despite announcements of a ceasefire, the situation between Iran and Israel remains highly volatile, with no clear indications of de-escalation. The United States and Israel have both signaled ongoing concern regarding Iran’s leadership. The US Vice President has stated that Iran will remain a national security priority for at least the next three years. In parallel, the Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, has indicated that it no longer views Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, as a legitimate figure. Reza Pahlavi, son of the former Shah, has appeared more frequently in US media and alongside Israeli officials, calling for changes in Iran’s leadership during televised statements. The current tensions could place Iran at the center of a broader regional crisis with significant consequences for stability in the Middle East. For these reasons, it is still strongly advised to avoid all non-essential operations (ground and overflight) to the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. The current advice to avoid any operations in or over Israel, Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon remains in effect. Looking ahead, the situation is expected to continue affecting civilian air travel, with further flight cancellations and diversions likely as regional airspace restrictions persist. Airlines may face higher operational costs, complex rerouting, insurance challenges, and increased difficulty in organizing evacuation flights. The maritime sector also faces risks: while shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab remain open, renewed Houthi attacks on commercial vessels or potential restrictions by Iran could disrupt global trade. Maritime operators may encounter higher insurance premiums, enhanced security requirements, and operational delays. Any further escalation — particularly if Iran advances its nuclear program and obtains a nuclear weapon — could prompt other regional states, such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt, to pursue similar capabilities, increasing the risk of an arms race. Without meaningful diplomatic engagement, the likelihood of wider conflict and regional instability remains significant. At the time of writing, numerous countries, including the US and some EU member states have officially advised their citizens to immediately leave the affected areas due to limited consular reach and security threats.

Date:   23/06/2025  Where:  Middle East, particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria Who’s involved: Israel, Iran, United States, Houthi forces          Approximate areas of Israeli (blue), Iranian (green) and Houthi (red)  targeting between 22 and 23 June 2025 Key developments As of 23 June 2025, Iranian authorities have not yet militarily responded to US attacks. Regional governments, along with the EU, Russia, the US and others, have issued statements reflecting their views on the situation.  Israeli officials reported continuing attacks on Iran with around 50 combat aircraft between 22 and 23 June , targeting radar and satellite centers throughout the country, anti-air defenses in Kermanshah, airstrips, underground tunnels, aircraft in “west, east and central Iran”, in addition to targets in Madan, Tehran and Yazd. Iranian authorities announced having launched a mix of solid and liquid-fuel based ballistic missiles and drones at Israeli targets , including the Khorramshahr-4 and/or a Kheibar Shekan, both considered among the country’s most advanced missile systems. Reports indicate that in the morning of 23 June areas near the Knesset in Jerusalem and a power station in Ashdod were targeted. On 22 June 2025, at around 02:00 hours local time in Iran, the US carried out aerial attacks on the Fordow and Natanz fuel enrichment plants, and Esfahan’s nuclear technology center with seven B2 bombers deployed from the continental US, an 18 hour flight, deploying a decoy unit flying west over the Pacific. A total of 14 massive ordinance penetrator (MOP) bombs in addition to an unspecified number of Tomahawk missiles on Esfahan reportedly from a nuclear submarine in the Gulf of Oman, in what US officials claimed as a success.  Iranian authorities confirmed the attacks, stating however, that nuclear material had been previously removed from those facilities , and that damage was repairable.   Iranian authorities vowed a “decisive response” against the US  for their attacks, not specifying any details. The country’s Minister of Foreign Affairs (MFA) announced that negotiations on their nuclear program are no longer going to take place due to the failure of diplomacy.  At the time of writing, there was no information allowing for an independent assessment of the damage and result of the US attacks on Iran , with some experts casting doubt on whether the US attack accomplished its goal of destroying the targets.  US Vice President J.D. Vance announced that countering Iran’s nuclear program will be on the US agenda for the next three years , stating that previous leaders who started wars in the Middle East were “dumb,” and president Trump on the contrary, is someone “who can accomplish goals.”  The Houthis reported launching a missile at Israel , which in turn reported intercepting a missile over Eilat, in addition to a parliament session being interrupted due to a missile threat.  The aircraft carriers USS Carl Vinson  and USS Nimitz  are now operating in the US Central Command area of operations , placing around 18 warships and more than 100 US military aircraft within striking distance of Iran. Other US bases in the region may continue on high alert, awaiting a possible attack from Iran.  The airspace over both Iran and Israel remains closed due to the threat posed by missiles and military activity in the region. Major airports in all Gulf states continue to operate , although flight cancellations have been noted in many of them.  The possibility of Iran closing the Straits of Hormuz remains, with the country’s legislators approving its closure, now pending a final approval by the executive body . The US has officially called on China to prevent Tehran from closing the straits, affecting energy markets worldwide.  At the time of writing, there were no clear signs of maritime traffic being disrupted through the Red Sea or the Strait of Hormuz , although the latter could be closed by Iranian authorities in response to US attacks. Context: The confrontation between Iran and Israel has escalated into the most direct and dangerous in their history, triggering a chain of events with serious regional consequences. The crisis began on 13 June 2025, when Israel launched large-scale strikes against key Iranian military and strategic sites, including the homes of senior officials and scientists. Iran responded rapidly with hypersonic and ballistic missiles, as well as UAVs, with both sides expanding their attacks to energy infrastructure and government buildings. Israeli air operations have reached deep into Iranian territory, crossing Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi airspace. Hundreds have been killed or injured on both sides, many of them civilians caught in strikes on major cities. Airspace over Iran, Israel, Iraq, Syria and Jordan remains closed or heavily restricted, while maritime traffic has continued despite increasing GPS interference near the Strait of Hormuz and the Israeli coast. Since 17 June, both countries have imposed media blackouts, with Israel reportedly barring foreign journalists and Iran severely limiting internet access. The international response remains divided, with the US and some European governments backing Israel, while China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, Pakistan and Afghanistan have condemned Israel’s initial strikes. On 22 June 2025, at around 02:00 local time in Iran,  the US launched aerial attacks on Iran, likely driven by concerns over a deteriorating situation for Israel. Areas targeted were the Fordow and Natanz fuel enrichment plants, and Esfahan’s nuclear technology center. The operation reportedly involved seven B-2 bombers deployed from the continental US on an 18-hour mission. US officials claimed the operation was a success, while  Iranian authorities confirmed the attacks but stated that nuclear material had previously been removed and that the damage was repairable. Tehran had warned that any US attack would trigger strikes on American military assets across the region, but no such retaliation had been observed. The deployment of the USS Nimitz , USS Carl Vinson , B-52 bombers at Diego Garcia, and US aircraft from Cyprus and Crete places significant force within striking distance of Iran. Maritime traffic through the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz has so far continued, although closure of the latter remains a possibility. The situation remains highly volatile, with no sign of de-escalation. Looking ahead: The security outlook for aviation, maritime operations and broader regional stability remains highly precarious as the Iran-Israel confrontation deepens, now compounded by direct US involvement. Ongoing airspace closures over Iran, Israel and parts of neighboring countries, alongside widespread flight cancellations and delays, are expected to continue amid intensified missile exchanges and military activity. The deployment of additional US military assets — including carrier strike groups, surveillance aircraft and THAAD batteries — together with the presence of Chinese naval vessels in the Persian Gulf, points to a sustained and elevated risk environment for civil aviation. Increasing GPS interference in key corridors such as the eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz further heightens navigational hazards for both air and maritime traffic. Airlines are likely to maintain rerouting or suspension of flights through affected areas, while shipping operators will need to exercise heightened caution near military zones and GPS disruption hotspots. Renewed Houthi threats to target US vessels in the Red Sea raise the risk of resumed strikes on commercial shipping, with potentially severe consequences for global trade and supply chains. The intensifying conflict is placing Israeli air defenses under significant strain, with Iranian missile strikes reportedly breaching defenses and hitting key sites in Tel Aviv and elsewhere. The US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have further escalated tensions, signaling a deepening American role in the conflict. The build-up of military forces, including three US carrier strike groups, a UK carrier and Chinese surveillance ships, increases the likelihood of the confrontation expanding to involve other powers. Should exchanges between the US, Iran, Israel and the Houthis intensify, further airspace closures, maritime disruptions and impacts on critical commercial routes across the Middle East, and potentially extending into the Caucasus, are highly likely. It is advisable to avoid flying through or operating in the airspace of Iraq, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon at any altitude and reconsider operations in the Middle East, at least until Iran's response will be clear. The resulting uncertainty poses serious risks for regional security, aviation operations and international trade.

Areas of US (yellow), Israeli (blue) and Iranian (green) targeting between 21 and 22 June 2025 Date:   22/06/2025  Where:  Middle East, particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria Who’s involved: Israel, Iran, United States Key developments Between the night of 21 and 22 June (Iran time), the US officially announced that it had targeted three Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan , stating, “We have completed our very successful attack… A full payload of bombs was dropped on the primary site in Fordow.”  No initial damage assessments after the US attack were available due to the lack of information , with the US reporting having successfully destroyed the nuclear facilities, while Iranian authorities refuted the news, stating that there was only minor damage.  Iran’s Foreign Ministry responded to the US attacks by condemning them , but stopped short of mentioning any planned Iranian response.  Houthi forces may resume attacks on ships in the Red Sea , having stated that they would target US ships and military forces if the US became involved in the Iran-Israel confrontation. Israel and Iran also exchanged attacks between 21 and 22 June , with Israel reportedly carrying out air strikes in western Iran, targeting Iran’s oil and gas facilities in Bandar Abbas, along the Straits of Hormuz and other unspecified sites, while Iran launched missile strikes on Israel, focusing on Tel Aviv and Haifa, and targeting the port facility in Haifa and Ben Gurion airport. Authorities in Tehran had warned that any US attack would be met with strikes on American military assets in the region , including bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, Syria and Turkey. At the time of writing, there was no indication of any attacks on US assets. At the time of writing, there were no clear signs of maritime traffic being interrupted through the Red Sea or the Strait of Hormuz , though the latter could be closed by Iranian authorities in response to the US attacks. The aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson  is already operating in the area, while the USS Nimitz  has reportedly arrived in the US Central Command area of operations, placing around 18 warships and more than 100 US military aircraft within striking distance of Iran.  With reports of other US bases in the region, such as Riyadh, with an increased number of US bombers parked on tarmacs.  The airspace over both Iran and Israel remains closed due to the threat posed by missiles and military activity in the region. It is advisable to avoid flying through or operating in the airspace of Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon at any altitude. Additionally, with potential US involvement in the conflict, the airspace over Kuwait, the UAE and northern Oman is considered to be at heightened risk. Context: The confrontation between Iran and Israel has escalated into one of the most direct and dangerous in their history, triggering a chain of events with serious regional consequences. The crisis began on 13 June 2025 when Israel launched large-scale strikes against key Iranian military and strategic sites, including the homes of senior officials and scientists. Iran responded rapidly with hypersonic and ballistic missiles as well as UAVs, with both sides expanding their attacks to energy infrastructure and government buildings. Israeli air operations have reached deep into Iranian territory, crossing Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi airspace. Hundreds have been killed or injured on both sides, many of them civilians caught in strikes on major cities. Airspace over Iran, Israel, Iraq, Syria and Jordan remains closed or heavily restricted, while maritime traffic has continued despite increasing GPS interference near the Strait of Hormuz and the Israeli coast. Since 17 June, both countries have imposed media blackouts, with Israel reportedly barring foreign journalists and Iran severely limiting internet access. The international response remains divided, with the US and some European governments backing Israel. At the same time, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, Pakistan and Afghanistan have condemned Israel’s initial strikes. After ten days of confrontation, the US launched strikes against Iran, likely driven by concerns over a deteriorating situation for Israel. Between the night of 21 and 22 June in Iran, the US announced that it had targeted three Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan, stating, “We have completed our very successful attack… A full payload of bombs was dropped on the primary site in Fordow.” Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned the attacks but stopped short of mentioning any planned response. Houthi forces warned they would target US ships and military forces in the Red Sea if the US became involved in the confrontation. Tehran had warned that any US attack would trigger strikes on US military assets across the region, including bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, Syria and Turkey. However, at the time of writing, there were no signs of such attacks. The arrival of the USS Nimitz  and USS Carl Vinson , supported by B-52 bombers at Diego Garcia and US aircraft operating from bases in Cyprus and Crete, has placed about 18 warships and over 100 military aircraft within striking distance of Iran. While maritime traffic through the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz has not been interrupted so far, the latter could yet be closed by Iranian authorities in response to US action. With no sign of de-escalation, the situation remains highly volatile. Looking ahead: The security outlook for airline, maritime operations and overall regional stability continues to be deeply fragile as the Iran-Israel confrontation intensifies, now with the United States directly involved in attacks. Airspace closures over Iran, Israel and parts of neighbouring countries, along with flight cancellations and delays, are expected to persist as missile exchanges and military activity escalate. The deployment of further US military assets, carrier strike groups and surveillance aircraft, combined with the presence of Chinese military vessels in the Persian Gulf, signals a sustained high-risk environment for civil aviation. GPS interference in critical corridors, such as the eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea, and the Strait of Hormuz, adds to navigational hazards for both air and maritime traffic. Airline operators will likely need to continue rerouting or suspending flights through affected areas, while shipping companies must exercise greater caution near military zones and GPS disruption hotspots. Renewed Houthi threats to attack US vessels in the Red Sea could see a resumption of strikes on commercial shipping, with serious consequences for global trade and supply chains. Israeli air defences continue to face heavy strain, with failed interceptions allowing Iranian missiles to hit key sites in Tel Aviv and other locations. In response to the escalating conflict and amid growing concerns for Israel’s security, the US has already launched strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, further raising tensions in the region. The deployment of additional US THAAD batteries, specialists and increased military air movements signals a deepening US role. The build-up of forces, including three US carrier strike groups, a UK carrier and Chinese surveillance ships, increases the risk of the conflict drawing in wider powers. Should exchanges between the US, Iran, Israel and the Houthis intensify, further airspace closures and maritime disruptions are likely, threatening major commercial routes across the Middle East and potentially into the Caucasus, with unpredictable consequences for regional security, aviation and trade.

Date:   20/06/2025  Where:  Middle East, particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria Who’s involved: Israel, Iran, United States In the image below: Areas of major Israeli (blue) and Iranian (green) targeting between 19 and 20 June 2025   Key developments        Israeli authorities reported that 20 fighter aircraft carried out attacks on Iranian assets  in Azatshehr, Gorgan, Tehran and the industrial district of Rasht, with Iranian anti-air defenses reportedly intercepting some aircraft. Houla and Kfarjouz in southern Lebanon were also targeted by UAVs countering Hezbollah activity according to Israeli officials. Iran reported launching a “16th wave” of ballistic missiles during the morning hours of 20 June , targeting what was described as a cybersecurity centre in Beer Sheva and Nevatim airbase. It also launched at least three UAVs towards central Israel and the Haifa area, and claimed to have downed two Israeli UAVs, including one near the border with Iraq in the Pol-e Dokhtar area. Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei stated that the US “has now entered the scene” in reference to the ongoing confrontation with Israel . Israel’s defense minister responded by saying that Khamenei “can no longer be allowed to exist,” signaling a shift in objectives from the initial focus on nuclear facilities.  A White House spokeswoman stated that President Trump is expected to make a decision on Iran “within the next two weeks,” adding that Iran had failed to comply with Trump’s 60-day deadline set in April, which expired on the day of Israel’s attack on 13 June. This has fueled further speculation about potential US involvement in the ongoing Iran-Israel confrontation. Israel targeted another of Iran’s heavy water nuclear reactors at Arak  on 19 June, reportedly damaging part of the facility. Increased activity of military aircraft, particularly from the US, has been observed in flights between the US and Europe as well as the eastern Mediterranean.  On 18 June seven aircraft were identified parked on the tarmac at Crete’s Souda Airbase, believed to be a mix of C-130 transports and KC-135 Stratotankers, with C-17 Globemaster transport aircraft also confirmed to have used the base for layovers around the same time. This heightened activity points to coordinated efforts aimed at strengthening Israel’s defense capabilities. Around 30 maritime vessels, including container ships and tankers, were observed in a circular holding pattern off northern Israel near the Tamar maritime oil and gas field . This is presumed to be part of a floating production storage and offloading procedure, as port operations in Israel may be restricted during the ongoing crisis. Iranian officials reported that they had foiled an assassination attempt against Foreign Minister  Abbas Araghchi, who was due to fly to Geneva for negotiations on 20 June, allegedly organized by Israeli operatives. This suggests Israel may be broadening its targets from strictly military sites to political figures. US carriers American Airlines and United Airlines will suspend flights to certain Middle Eastern destinations , including Doha and Dubai, while Delta Airlines has suspended flights to Tel Aviv. Air France, KLM and Air Canada have also cancelled services to regional hubs such as Dubai and Riyadh. A third US aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, is heading to the Mediterranean, bringing a third carrier strike group within reach of the Middle East. The USS Carl Vinson is already deployed in the region and the USS Nimitz is on its way from southeast Asia, surpassing the carrier presence seen during the 2011 intervention in Libya. In total this could place around 18 warships and more than 100 US military aircraft within striking distance of Iran. Internet access in Iran remains restricted amid the ongoing conflict while in Israel authorities have further tightened controls on what can be filmed. The airspace over both Iran and Israel remains closed  due to the threat from missiles and military flights in the region. It is advisable to avoid flying through or operating in the airspace of Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon at any level. In addition, with possible US involvement in the conflict, the airspace over Kuwait, the UAE and northern Oman is considered to be at increased risk. Context: The confrontation between Iran and Israel has escalated into one of the most direct and dangerous in their history, setting off a chain of events with significant regional consequences. The crisis began on 13 June 2025 when Israel launched large-scale strikes against key Iranian military and strategic sites, including the residences of senior figures and scientists. Iran responded swiftly with hypersonic and ballistic missiles and UAVs, as both sides expanded their targets to include energy infrastructure and government facilities. Israeli air operations have continued deep into Iranian territory, crossing Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi airspace, while hundreds have been killed or injured on both sides, many of them civilians caught in strikes on major urban centres. Airspace between Iran and Israel, including over Iraq, Syria and Jordan, remains closed or heavily restricted, while maritime traffic has largely continued despite growing GPS interference near the Strait of Hormuz and off the Israeli coast. Since 17 June both sides have imposed media blackouts, with Israel reportedly barring foreign journalists and Iran significantly limiting internet access. The international community remains divided, with the US and some European governments backing Israel, while China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, Pakistan and Afghanistan have condemned Israel’s initial strikes. The build-up of military forces signals growing risks, with two US carrier strike groups, led by the USS Carl Vinson and the USS Nimitz, joined by B-52 bombers at Diego Garcia, reflecting a high state of readiness to support Israel should the conflict intensify. US military transport and refueling aircraft are actively using airbases in Pafos, Cyprus and Crete (Souda Airbase) as staging points for flights to Israel, Jordan and Iraq. Satellite imagery from 18 June identified at least seven large aircraft resembling C-130s, and flight tracking shows KC-135 Stratotankers entering Iraqi airspace from Jordan and returning. This growing activity points to increasing signs of US involvement. On 19 June the White House confirmed that President Trump is expected to decide on possible action against Iran within the next two weeks, noting that Iran failed to comply with Trump’s 60-day deadline that expired on the day of Israel’s strikes, adding to speculation about direct US engagement in the conflict. Airspace over Kuwait, the UAE and northern Oman is now seen as higher risk due to the presence of US bases and their potential as targets for Iranian retaliation. The overall security environment remains volatile with no clear signs of de-escalation in the near future. Looking ahead: The security outlook for airline, maritime operations and overall regional stability remains deeply fragile as the Iran-Israel confrontation intensifies. Airspace closures over Iran, Israel and parts of neighboring countries, along with widespread flight cancellations and delays, are expected to persist as missile exchanges and military activity escalate. The deployment of further US air defenses, carrier strike groups and surveillance aircraft, combined with the presence of Chinese military vessels in the Persian Gulf, signals a sustained high-risk environment for civil aviation. GPS interference in critical corridors like the eastern Mediterranean and the Strait of Hormuz adds to navigational hazards for air and maritime traffic. Airline operators will likely need to keep rerouting or suspending flights through affected areas, while shipping companies must exercise greater caution near military zones and GPS disruption hotspots. The recent collision between the tankers MV Front Eagle and MV Adalynn on 17 June may be an early sign of how such interference can contribute to serious maritime incidents. Israeli air defenses continue to face heavy strain, with reports and videos showing failed interceptions of Iranian missiles striking key targets in Tel Aviv and other locations during daylight on 19 June. This raises serious concerns about the resilience of Israeli systems and their ability to cope with sustained attacks. In response, the US is reportedly sending THAAD batteries and additional specialists, while open-source data points to increased US air movements into the region, suggesting quiet military involvement. The growing build-up of forces, including three US carrier strike groups, a UK carrier and Chinese surveillance ships, reflects rising tensions that could soon draw in wider powers. Speculation that only the US could destroy Iran’s nuclear site at Fordow is increasing pressure on President Trump, raising the risk of US strikes and, in turn, Iranian retaliation against American military targets, which would further endanger regional airspace. Reports of Israeli UAVs possibly operating from Azerbaijani airspace, if confirmed, could also extend the conflict’s impact into the Caucasus, disrupting another vital flight corridor. Taken together, these developments point towards an escalating conflict with increasing likelihood of direct US-Iran hostilities and unpredictable consequences for the wider region.

Areas of major targeting (blue) between 18 and 19 June 2025 Date:   19/06/2025  Where:  Middle East, particularly Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria Who’s involved: Israel, Iran, United States Key developments Israel and Iran exchanged further attacks between 18 and 19 June, with  the Israeli air force targeting reported IRGC offices in Tehran, an airport area near Karaj and airbases in Kermanshah and Tabriz . Unverified reports also suggested that Israel struck an underground bunker where Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was believed to be, though no details about the outcome have emerged. Iran launched what appear to be new advanced ballistic missiles , likely Sejil or Khorramshahr types, targeting Tel Aviv and Beer Sheva during the morning hours, marking a shift from the usual night-time attacks. The Israeli stock exchange and the diamond exchange in Ramat Gan, one of the world’s largest markets, were either struck directly or suffered serious collateral damage, along with a reported IDF intelligence building and a nearby hospital in Beer Sheva, as well as several other targets. Iran’s supreme leader made his first public appearance since the start of the conflict , warning that any US strikes would “inflict irreparable damage on them” and stressing that his country would not yield to Trump’s call for surrender. His comments came after Trump stated that any US airstrikes on Iran would be swift and decisive, aimed at deterring further aggression. However, US authorities have not yet made any decision to proceed with airstrikes on Iran. The UK and France appear to favour diplomatic solutions to the crisis and have expressed opposition to direct US intervention in Iran . In addition, any US airstrikes on Iran’s Fordow facility could require UK permission to use the Diego Garcia base, politically fracturing the UK government and public opinion. The UK and EU continue internal discussions on non-military options for resolving the conflict, with an official meeting with an Iranian delegation on nuclear talks set for 20 June in Geneva.  Rallies in solidarity with Iran have taken place for two consecutive days in Baghdad’s Green Zone , with protesters calling for the closure of the US embassy. A large fire was also reported around 2 km from Baghdad International Airport, though no details have been confirmed and there is no indication it is linked to the protests. A flight with 148 passengers arrived in Bulgaria evacuating dual citizens from Bulgaria, Slovenia, US, Belgium, Albania, Kosovo and Romania from Israel. Other foreigners stranded in Israel continue to be evacuated by boat to Larnaca in Cyprus, a journey of around 20 hours. Foreign nationals in Iran are being evacuated via land borders, particularly through Armenia and Azerbaijan, less so through Turkey,  with other remaining countries, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq, not advisable for Western citizens.  The Houthis have declared their readiness to support Iran  if tensions escalate, with officials stating they are “in coordination” with Iranian authorities. So far, they have launched a limited number of missiles at Israel since the conflict began on 13 June and have refrained from targeting any maritime vessels. Further US military aircraft, including heavy transports, have been observed flying between the US and Europe, with two others showing routes towards Israel. One US carrier strike group ( USS Carl Vinson - CVN-70 strike group) is already present in the Middle East, with another on the way ( USS Nimitz - CVN-68 strike group), together comprising around 12 vessels including aircraft carriers, destroyers and support ships. Each carrier can accommodate at least 60 aircraft, with at least half of these being combat aircraft.  Internet access in Iran remains restricted amid the ongoing conflict, while in Israel, authorities have tightened controls on what can be filmed. Ben Gurion and Mehrabad International Airports in Israel and Iran, respectively, remain closed with all operations suspended as confirmed by airport authorities. Other airports in the region continue to operate but are experiencing widespread cancellations and delays, particularly Beirut-Rafic Hariri International (OLBA/BEY), Qatar’s Hamad International (OTHH/DOH), and Amman’s Queen Alia International (OJAI/AMM). Airports in Bahrain and the UAE appear to be operating with minimal disruption. The airspace over both Iran and Israel remains closed  because of the threat posed by missiles and military flights in the region. It is advisable to avoid flying through or operating in the airspace of Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon at any level. Additionally, due to a possible US involvement in the conflict, the airspace of Kuwait, the UAE and northern Oman is at a particular risk.  GPS interference in the eastern Mediterranean and Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz continues to intensify , affecting an ever-wider area at the time of writing. The exact source of the interference remains unknown. Flights and maritime traffic passing through these regions are advised to exercise increased caution. Context: The conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated into one of the most direct and intense confrontations in their history, triggering a dangerous sequence of events with far-reaching consequences. It began on 13 June 2025 when Israel launched large-scale strikes on key Iranian military and strategic sites, including the residences of senior figures and scientists. Iran responded rapidly with hypersonic and ballistic missiles and UAVs as both sides expanded their targets to include energy infrastructure and government facilities. Israel has continued its air operations deep into Iranian territory, crossing Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi airspace, while hundreds have been killed or injured on both sides, many of them civilians caught in attacks on major urban centres. Airspace between Iran and Israel, including over Iraq, Syria and Jordan, remains closed or heavily restricted, though maritime traffic has so far been largely unaffected despite growing GPS jamming near the Strait of Hormuz and off Israel’s coast. Since 17 June, both Israel and Iran have imposed media blackouts, with Israel reportedly blocking foreign journalists on the ground and internet connectivity in Iran has been significantly reduced. The international community remains split, with the US and European governments providing political or military backing to Israel, while China, Russia, the Gulf Cooperation Council, Pakistan and Afghanistan have condemned Israel’s initial strikes. The situation is becoming increasingly volatile and shows no signs of de-escalation in the near term. Although no decision has yet been made on direct US strikes against Iran, ongoing difficulties in countering Iranian missiles could increase pressure for intervention, given the strong US-Israel alliance and the influence of pro-Israel lobbying in Washington. Reports indicate that military options are under consideration as the US continues to reinforce its position, with F-22s, F-35s, tankers, transports and surveillance aircraft deployed to European bases and the eastern Mediterranean. The arrival of two carrier strike groups, led by the USS Carl Vinson and the USS Nimitz, along with B-52 bombers stationed at Diego Garcia, signals a high state of alert and growing readiness to support Israel if the conflict intensifies. In light of potential US involvement, airspace over Kuwait, the UAE and northern Oman is now seen as presenting greater risk, both as possible overflight zones and as locations housing US bases that could become targets for Iranian retaliation. This demonstrates how the deepening conflict is already beginning to impact regional aviation security and operational planning across the wider area. Looking ahead: The security outlook for airline, maritime operations, and overall stability in the region remains highly precarious. The closure of airspace over Iran, Israel and parts of neighbouring countries, combined with widespread flight cancellations and delays, is likely to persist as missile exchanges continue and military activity intensifies. The deployment of additional US air defences to support Israel, alongside carrier strike groups and surveillance aircraft, now in addition to apparent Chinese military vessels in the Persian Gulf, points to a sustained high-risk environment for commercial aviation. GPS interference in key corridors such as the eastern Mediterranean and the Strait of Hormuz further compounds the threat, creating significant navigational hazards for both air and maritime traffic. Airline operators will need to continue rerouting or suspending flights through affected areas, while shipping companies will need to exercise increased caution, particularly in zones of military operations and areas with known GPS disruptions. In this regard, it is important to note the collision that occurred between tankers MV Front Eagle and MV Adalynn on 17 June 2025. Although an official investigation has not been completed, and the incident may be due to navigation issues, the heavy GPS spoofing in the area may have contributed to the collision. Israeli air defences currently appear to be under significant pressure, with several videos showing unsuccessful attempts to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles that hit targets in Tel Aviv and other areas during daylight on 19 June. This has raised concerns that Israeli systems may be struggling to handle the scale of the threat or could be running low on interceptor missiles. In response, reports indicate that the US is sending THAAD air defence batteries and around 100 specialists to reinforce Israel’s defences, while open-source flight data shows US aircraft heading towards the eastern Mediterranean and switching off transponders before entering Israeli airspace, possibly signalling indirect involvement. If hostilities intensify or additional parties join the conflict, the risk to civilian aircraft and vessels is likely to rise significantly, particularly in contested airspace or near key maritime routes. Ongoing pressure on Israeli defences, the prospect of further Iranian missile strikes and uncertainty over potential US action could all lead to a worsening security environment. In this context, wider regional airspace closures or attacks on critical shipping lanes cannot be ruled out. Operators will need to remain vigilant, update contingency measures, and collaborate with authorities to safeguard passengers, crews, and cargo as the situation unfolds.

Date:   18/06/2025  Areas of major targeting in blue Where:  Middle East, particularly Iran,  Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria Who’s involved: Israel, Iran, United States   Key developments Attacks between Israel and Iran continued between 17 and 18 June, but with less intensity than during the first two days . Israel reportedly targeted the Imam Huseyin University vicinity and IRGC offices in Tehran and Iran hit areas in Haifa and Tel Aviv with what official Iranian sources claim as 440 missiles and rockets during the evening hours and  night. Jordanian airspace was confirmed as having been used for at least one of these strikes.  The United States’ President Trump issued a post on social media insinuating direct US participation alongside Israel against Iran . In the post he stated, “We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now” referring to Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, while in a subsequent post immediately afterwards he wrote, “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” Additionally, credible media reports state that Trump is considering military options against Iran. Credible open-source information suggests the United States is deploying at least two dozen military aircraft at bases in Europe , among them F-22 and F-35 fighters, KC-135 Stratotankers, C-17 Globemasters, C-130 Hercules and P-8 Poseidons, some of which have flown towards the eastern Mediterranean, possibly supporting Israel. The Chinese embassy is reportedly evacuating personnel in Tehran, and the Thai embassy is seeking to evacuate all citizens in Iran, while others have left through land borders, particularly with Azerbaijan to the north. The UK and other European countries are advising against all travel to Iran, as airspace remains closed and people are being evacuated, particularly through Armenian and Azeri land borders. Internet traffic in Iran has seen a significant reduction over the past day , suggesting local authorities are seeking to limit access to information for security reasons. Media blackouts continue, with less amateur footage emerging from Israel compared to the first three days of the conflict. Ben Gurion International Airport (LLBG/TLV) remains closed , with operations suspended according to official notification from airport authorities. Other airports in the region are operational but experiencing numerous cancellations and delays, particularly at Beirut-Rafic Hariri International (OLBA/BEY), Qatar’s Hamad International (OTHH/DOH), and Amman’s Queen Alia International (OJAI/AMM). Airports in Bahrain and the UAE appear to be operating with minimal disruption. The airspace over both Iran and Israel remains closed  due to the threat of missiles and military flights in the area. EASA recommends not to operate in Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Lebanon at all levels. Two tankers, the Bermuda-flagged Adalynn  and the Liberian-flagged Front Eagle , collided in waters near the Strait of Hormuz , approximately 26 nautical miles from the eastern UAE coastline near Fujairah. The UAE National Guard intervened to evacuate 24 crew from the Adalynn , which was set ablaze by the collision. While the cause of the incident is being investigated, the Front Eagle  had reported interference with its geopositioning system on 15 June. There are continuing indications of GPS interference in the eastern Mediterranean and Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz, with the potential to affect flights and maritime lanes. Amid indications of a possible US intervention in Iran, crude oil prices have once again increased by around 4%, with both Brent North Sea Crude and WTI seeing rises of more than 4% over the past day. Context: The conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated into one of the most direct and intense confrontations in their history. The crisis began with a large-scale Israeli strike on 13 June 2025 targeting key Iranian military and strategic sites, including the homes of senior figures and scientists. This prompted swift Iranian retaliation with hypersonic and ballistic missiles and UAVs. Israel has continued air operations deep into Iran, flying through Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi airspace, with both sides increasingly targeting energy infrastructure as well as military and government facilities. The fighting has caused significant casualties, drawn in wider geopolitical actors and led to airspace closures, flight disruptions and a surge in oil prices. A media blackout between 16 and 17 June appeared to limit unofficial reporting, suggesting efforts to suppress information, particularly on social media. The airspace over Iran, Israel and Iraq remains closed, with ongoing delays and electronic interference affecting navigation. Russia and Turkey condemned Israel’s actions while the US reinforced its military presence, fueling speculation of direct involvement. Several embassies, including those of the UK and France, have urged citizens to leave Israel as governments update travel warnings across the region. US President Trump posted on social media suggesting direct US involvement alongside Israel. He wrote “We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now” referring to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, followed by “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” Credible reports suggest Trump is weighing military options. Open sources indicate at least two dozen US military aircraft, including F-22s, F-35s, KC-135s, C-17s, C-130s and P-8s, have deployed to European bases, with some moving towards the eastern Mediterranean. Signs are growing that Washington may support Israel’s airstrikes. US officials say assets are for defensive purposes, referencing 40,000 troops at over 20 regional bases. The USS Nimitz is expected in the region within a week, joining the USS Carl Vinson, while B-52 bombers have been sent to Diego Garcia. US forces appear on high alert given the scale of deployments. Looking ahead: Several scenarios could unfold as the crisis deepens . The most concerning is a major escalation , with growing signs that Washington may become directly involved in armed conflict against Iran in support of Israel’s ongoing airstrikes. While US defense officials insist that their military deployments are for defensive purposes, referring to the roughly 40,000 US troops stationed at more than 20 bases across the region, the scale of the build-up suggests preparations for possible direct action. The USS Nimitz  is expected to enter the region within a week from South-East Asia, joining the USS Carl Vinson  already in position, while B-52 bombers were sent to Diego Garcia in May. US Central Command and US Air Forces Central Command appear to be on high alert given the number of assets now deployed. A wider war could draw in Hezbollah, militias in Iraq and Syria, and perhaps Gulf states, leading to further attacks on infrastructure, severe disruption to energy supplies, and significant civilian harm. Maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz and Suez Canal could face major risks from missile strikes or interference, while air travel would continue to suffer from closed airspace as military operations continue, resulting in widespread cancellations, rerouting and rising operational costs. Alternatively, diplomacy may gain ground, with actors such as Qatar, Oman, Turkey, Russia or China, attempting to broker a ceasefire or de-escalation  to avert full-scale war. This could involve halting attacks on energy infrastructure and transport corridors, reopening airspace or creating safe maritime and aviation routes. However, such efforts face considerable challenges given the scale of hostilities and political pressures on both sides. A prolonged stand-off is also possible, marked by continued airstrikes, cyber operations, proxy clashes and maritime incidents, leaving the region in a state of enduring instability. In this scenario, persistent threats to shipping and aviation would keep global markets volatile and place sustained pressure on governments and commercial operators. Reports and overall developments suggest the next 24 -48 hours will be critical  for determining the outcome of the confrontation, whether the crisis spirals into broader war or stabilizes into an uneasy containment.

Areas of major targeting in blue Date:   17/06/2025  Where:  Middle East, particularly Iran,  Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria Who’s involved: Israel, Iran    Key developments Between 16 and 17 June, there appeared to be a media blackout in both Iran and Israel , with limited unofficial information on exchanges of attacks, suggesting both countries may be actively working to suppress the publication of information from private sources, particularly on social media. This follows hundreds of videos showing attacks over the past three days. Media reporting the continuation of attacks on Tel Aviv and Tehran, with little details.  While Israel’s head of state, Benjamin Netanyahu, has made several appearances during the confrontation , the whereabouts of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, remain unknown. He has not appeared in public, fuelling unverified reports that he may have fled to Russia. The airspace over both Iran (OIIX/Tehran FIR) and Israel (LLLL/Tel Aviv FIR) remains closed owing to the ongoing threat from missile strikes, unmanned aerial vehicles and military aviation activity. In addition, Iraqi airspace (ORBB/Baghdad FIR) is also closed at least until 16 June 2025 at 19:00 UTC. Nevatim airbase in central Israel was reportedly targeted with missiles  from Iran, though the extent of the damage remains unspecified. The base had previously been targeted by Iran during the October confrontation in 2024. The leaders of Russia and Turkey issued a joint statement condemning Israel’s attacks on Iran and calling for an immediate end to hostilities . Turkey’s president, Tayyip Erdogan, later announced that his country plans to increase its medium and long-range missile stockpile due to ongoing developments in the region. The US has deployed dozens of aircraft, including refuelling planes, to its bases across Europe , as well as the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz, which is en route to the Middle East to join the USS Carl Vinson’s carrier strike group. The US President issued a statement in which he urged “Iran should have signed the deal… everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran,” his participation in the G7 summit was cut short, as was Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s trip to Canada. The US National Security Council was told to “be prepared for their return,” fueling rumours of a possible US participation against Iran.  Although president Trump later stated his return had “nothing to do with a ceasefire.” Iran’s IRIB state media studio was attacked by Israel while broadcasting live , killing two employees, a move Iran reportedly responded to with missiles, however damage and the extent of the response remains undetermined.  Ben Gurion International Airport remains closed , with operations suspended in line with official notification from airport authorities. Other airports in the region remain operational, though with numerous cancellations and delays, particularly at Beirut International, Qatar’s Hamad and Amman’s Queen Alia International. Airports in Bahrain and the UAE appear to be operating with minimal delays. There are increasing reports of electronic interference in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz , affecting the automatic identification systems (AIS) and navigation of maritime vessels transiting the area. Multiple incidents have been reported to UKMTO, which continues to advise vessels to transit with caution. Embassies such as the UK, France, China, South Korea and Russia among others have advised their citizens to leave Israel . With some, such as the UK, advising against travel to parts of Saudi Arabia and Jordan updated on 17 June 2025.  Crude oil and other energy prices appear to have leveled out , continuing to readjust, dropping around 4% after an 8% gain due to the ongoing situation.  Context: The conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated into one of the most direct and intense confrontations in the history of their long-standing hostility. The crisis began with a large-scale Israeli strike on 13 June 2025 targeting key Iranian military and strategic facilities, including the homes of senior political-military figures and scientists,  prompting swift Iranian retaliation with hypersonic and ballistic missiles and UAVs. Israel has sustained air operations deep into Iran, flying through Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi airspace, while both sides have increasingly targeted energy infrastructure alongside military and government sites. The fighting has caused significant casualties, drawn in wider geopolitical actors and led to widespread airspace closures, flight disruptions and surging oil prices, though energy markets are now readjusting following an initial spike. After three days of intense attack exchanges between Tel Aviv and Tehran, between 16 and 17 June, a media blackout appeared to limit unofficial reporting of attacks, suggesting efforts by both countries to suppress information, especially on social media. The airspace over Iran, Israel and Iraq remains closed, with increasing delays across the region and ongoing electronic interference affecting maritime navigation. Russia and Turkey issued a joint statement condemning Israel’s actions, while the US appears to be reinforcing its military presence and fuelled speculation about direct involvement. Several embassies, including those of the UK, France, China and Russia, have advised citizens to leave Israel, and governments are updating travel warnings across the Middle East as the crisis continues with no sign of de-escalation.   Conclusion: In the days and weeks ahead, the situation is expected to remain extremely volatile, with the risk of a wider regional escalation increasing, particularly if the United States shifts from reinforcing its military presence to direct involvement. The emergence of opposing geopolitical blocs, with Russia, China, Turkey and Pakistan critical of Israel and the European Union, UK, United States and India offering support to Israel, adds further complexity to the crisis. Large pro-Iranian rallies in Iraq and reported backing from Afghanistan and Pakistan raise the likelihood of further political or proxy involvement. Internally, the conflict may heighten instability within both Iran and Israel, with reports of unrest, including the escape of hundreds of prisoners during riots in Iran, pointing to possible cracks within the Iranian state. At present, there is no indication of either government collapsing, although serious attacks are expected to continue. Israel’s head of state, Benjamin Netanyahu, appears to be seeking greater US involvement, possibly with the aim of toppling Iran’s current leadership. Details on troop movements and military deployments remain limited, though reports indicate US military aircraft departed for Europe the previous day. The threat to airspace, maritime routes and company security is likely to remain severe. Airspace closures across Iran, Israel, Iraq and parts of the broader region are expected to persist, with the possibility of further restrictions posing risks to aviation safety and commercial operations. Maritime routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, continue to face heightened dangers from electronic interference, potential attacks on shipping and disruption to vital energy supplies. Companies with interests in or connected to the region should maintain close monitoring, review contingency measures and safeguard personnel and assets against the evolving threat landscape.

Date:  16/06/2025  Where:  Middle East, particularly Iran,  Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria Who’s involved: Israel, Iran Areas of major Israeli targeting in blue Key developments Exchanges of attacks between Iran and Israel are continuing, particularly during the night-time hours. However, the night of 15 to 16 June witnessed a relative lull in intensity, with apparently fewer missiles launched and fewer targets struck by either side, according to open sources. Energy-producing infrastructure, including gas fields, refineries, and major power stations, is now being actively targeted by both countries, in addition to military and government facilities. There are unconfirmed and independently unverified reports suggesting that members of the Iranian political elite, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, may have fled the country, either permanently or temporarily, with Russia cited as a possible destination. Numerous unofficial but credible sources have indicated this, although it has yet to be independently verified. Iran has primarily conducted its attacks using what appear to be hypersonic missiles, ballistic missiles, and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), while Israel seems to be relying on aircraft operating via Jordanian, Syrian, and Iraqi airspace to carry out its strikes within Iran. The airspace of both  Iran (OIIX/Tehran FIR) and Israel (LLLL/Tel Aviv FIR) remains closed due to the ongoing threat posed by missile fire, UAVs, and military aviation conducting operations. In addition, Iraqi airspace (ORBB/Baghdad FIR) is also closed at least until 16/06/2025 19.00UTC  Negotiations between the United States and Iran, which had been anticipated for Sunday 15 June in Oman prior to the Israeli strikes of 13 June, did not take place. It remains unclear if or when further talks might be scheduled.  Houthi forces claimed to have launched “several Palestine-2 hypersonic missiles” at Israel around 15 June, following Israeli strikes on their assets in Yemen that reportedly killed a “senior leader.” However, attacks on ships remain paused for now. Maritime traffic remains unchanged , including through the Straits of Bab al Mandab and Hormuz. There are no signs on social media or from official sources of imminent danger to shipping, though this could change at short notice. Most vessels near Bab al Mandab have non-Western origins or destinations (e.g. Singapore, India, Russia, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, China). Ships linked to European or US ports continue to avoid the area due to the risk of Houthi attacks from Yemen. No new independent reports on radiological and chemical contamination  from Iran’s nuclear facilities have been reported since the IInternational Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) 13 June report, reporting radiation inside Iran’s Natanz facility, but none outside the facility itself.  Crude oil and other energy prices appear to have leveled out , readjusting to the ongoing situation after an almost 8% increase the past two days, the current situation may see a further rise, with prices reacting to increased or larger-scale attacks.  Context: The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated into one of the most direct and intense confrontations in the history of their long-standing hostility. The crisis was sparked by an extensive Israeli strike on 13 June 2025, targeting key Iranian military and strategic facilities. This prompted a swift and large-scale Iranian retaliation, using hypersonic and ballistic missiles and UAVs to attack Israeli territory. Israel has responded with sustained air operations, using aircraft flying through Jordanian, Syrian and Iraqi airspace to strike deep into Iran. As the conflict has intensified, both sides have increasingly targeted not only military and government sites but also vital energy infrastructure including gas fields, refineries and power stations. Iran has reported at least 78 dead and 300 injured, while Israel has confirmed 14 fatalities and 390 wounded. The confrontation has drawn in wider geopolitical actors. Open support for Iran has been signalled by Pakistan, China and Russia, while reports indicate that Hezbollah and other Iran-aligned proxies in Syria and Jordan are preparing to attack Israel directly or infiltrate its territory. There are unverified but persistent reports that elements of Iran’s political elite — possibly including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — have fled to Russia, either temporarily or permanently. Israeli authorities have stated they are prepared for this conflict to continue for weeks, with no immediate signs of de-escalation. Airspace across much of the region remains closed due to the threat of missile attacks, UAV strikes and military operations. Flights to and from affected areas have been cancelled or rerouted, with delays also affecting airports in Lebanon, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait. Additionally, it is recommended to suspend all operations in and over Syria (OSTT/Damascus FIR), Lebanon (OLBB, Beirut FIR), and Jordan (OJAC/Amman FIR) due to increased regional instability and elevated security risks. Although maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab remains steady, oil prices have surged, adding further strain to global markets. Travellers to the Middle East and Gulf region face increasing uncertainty, and governments, including the Netherlands, are expected to issue updated guidance in the coming days. Conclusion: The upcoming days or weeks may see continued volatility due to hostilities, particularly should the US directly intervene. Open-source reports of UK and German military aircraft flying over Jordan, in one case a Royal Air Force Airbus KC2 Voyager air-to-air refueling aircraft possibly suggests a silent, albeit Western implication supporting Israeli aircraft conducting airstrikes on Iran. Comprehensive damage assessments remain difficult, given the limited and often unverifiable reports released by both sides, as well as the reliance on footage and claims circulating on social media. Israel has primarily struck sites in Iran’s western, central and north-western regions, while Iran has mainly targeted the Tel Aviv metropolitan area, parts of northern Israel and Jerusalem. Geopolitically, Iran appears to be receiving either military or political support from Pakistan, China and Russia, with possible interventions from Hezbollah and pro-Iranian groups in Syria against Israel. The Israeli leadership signalled that it continues fully engaged for prolonged operations, possibly lasting weeks. This contrasts with media statements quoting Iran’s foreign minister, who has indicated that attacks on Israel may stop should Israel cease its operations, although there is no official indication of the latter halting attacks Internally, the leadership of both countries may experience pressure from opposition groups. If the current Iranian government were to fall, its successor might not be pro-Israeli, as some might assume. Instead, it would likely emerge from a coalition of nationalist political forces, reflecting Iran’s deeply rooted nationalist sentiment, a sentiment that has endured for more than half a century, especially since the 1953 US-UK-backed overthrow of Prime Minister Mossadegh’s government. Meanwhile, although Netanyahu has secured backing from certain sectors within Israel, significant opposition to his leadership and policies persists. This was most evident in the mass anti-government protests as recently as March of this year, when tens of thousands repeatedly took to the streets, leading to at least a dozen arrests in cities like Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Thus, a prolongation of the conflict risks heightened internal instability, driven by their respective domestic opposition movements.

Initial assessment of areas targeted by Israel inside Iran in blue   Date:  13/06/2025  Where:  Middle East, particularly Iran,  Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria Who’s involved: Israel, Iran What happened:  In the early hours of 13 June 2025, Israel carried out massive airstrikes on what it called strategic targets in Iran,  including military installations and the nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz. Official reports from Israel stated that more than 200 fighter jets participated in ‘Operation Rising Lion’, which resulted in the death of Iran’s military Chief of Staff, commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, commander of a major military coordination center, the Khatam Al Anbiya base, as well as five high ranking scientists responsible for the country’s nuclear program.  Iranian authorities vowed retaliation against Israel, with reports of at least 100 drones launched by them towards Israel over Iraqi and Syrian airspace . The drones also breached Jordanian airspace earlier in the day, prompting Jordan to intercept a number of drones. Unconfirmed reports suggest air forces from Israel, Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, France, and the UK are also engaged in attacking Iranian drones , with the UK having issued statements denying their involvement. Significant tensions are expected in the Middle East, affecting maritime and air logistics, additionally, neighboring countries may be put in a state of heightened awareness, with increased security personnel and possible limitations on the movement of individuals.  Analysis: Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen pledged their full support for Iran, condemning Israel’s airstrikes, suggesting they may either increase or prolong launching missiles towards Israel, as well as resume attacks on any maritime vessel perceived to be supporting Israel.  Reports suggest the US and neighboring states such as Jordan and Qatar are also assisting in downing Iranian drones towards Israel. A prolongation of the tensions may result in a spillover into neighboring areas, widening the conflict zone.  The drones launched by Iran may have been deployed as decoy to obscure or precede an impending strike. Israeli air defense capabilities may also be weakened by waves of either decoy or low-cost missile and drones launched prior to  a larger missile attack by Iran, in which case, other countries, particularly the US, may be required to step in and provide support to Israel. Iran (OIIX/Tehran FIR) and Iraq (ORBB/Baghdad FIR) have closed their airspace until at least 10:00 UTC and 09:00UTC on Friday June 13 respectively. Many carriers had already begun avoiding these FIR’s due to the warning signs over the past few days.  Jordan’s Queen Alia International Airport and Israel’s Ben Gurion International Airport have both suspended all operations. In contrast, airports in Bahrain and Kuwait continue to operate, though some flights have been cancelled as a precaution.  With evolving airspace restrictions, Saudi Arabia's skies have become increasingly congested, as flights that once traversed Iranian and Iraqi airspace are now being rerouted through its territory. A prolongation of the conflict may see a spillover into the South Caucasus, affecting a major air corridor through Georgia and Azerbaijan.  Maritime vessels in and around the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Gulf of Oman and eastern Mediterranean Sea appear to continue their routes, although heightened security in the region may render their routes dangerous. Additionally, Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen may resume attacks on vessels transiting within their reach as they had previously done, possibly expanding targets, forcing cargo and tanker ships to reroute around Africa’s southern Cape of Good Hope, significantly extending travel time.  Expectations and recommendations : It is expected to see an increased risk of missile or drone attacks from Iranian proxies, particularly from Yemen or southern Lebanon, targeting Israeli territory or interest. Heightened military readiness and possible retaliatory strikes by Israel or the US raises the likelihood of further regional escalation. In light of the current conflict and its escalating, retaliatory nature, it is strongly recommended to continue avoiding operations in and over Iran (OIIX/Tehran FIR) and Iraq (ORBB/Baghdad FIR).  Additionally, it is recommended to suspend all operations in and over Syria (OSTT/Damascus FIR), Israel (LLLL/Tel Aviv FIR), Lebanon (OLBB/Beirut FIR), and Jordan (OJAC/Amman FIR) due to increased regional instability and elevated security risks, until further notice.

Date:  13/06/2025  Where:  Middle East, particularly Iran,  Iraq, Israel, Jordan and Syria Who’s involved: Israel, Iran Areas of major Israeli targeting in blue What happened:  In the early hours of 13 June 2025, the Israeli military launched extensive airstrikes on multiple targets across Iran, including military bases, radar installations, surface-to-air missile systems, a nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, missile production sites, and the residences of senior Iranian officials and scientists. According to official sources, more than 200 aircraft were involved in the operation—most of them believed to be unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)—marking the largest Israeli strike of its kind against Iran, potentially signalling an ambition to achieve regime change. Iranian state media reported 78 fatalities and 329 injuries as a result of the airstrikes on Tehran, with the capital’s Mehrabad International Airport also targeted, leading to the suspension of all flights. Following the attacks, Iran raised the symbolic red flag of revenge above the Jamkaran Mosque in Qom. However, no missile launches have been confirmed so far. Iran has, however, launched 100 drones towards Israel via Iraqi and Syrian airspace. Earlier in the day, several of these drones breached Jordanian airspace, prompting Jordanian forces to intercept them—an action which may now expose Jordan to the risk of Iranian retaliation. Israel has continued its strikes throughout the day, targeting various locations across Iran. Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that operations will persist until Israel’s objectives are achieved. Simultaneously with Iran’s drone deployment, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) initiated a second wave of attacks. Confirmed targets include a missile production facility in Shiraz, an underground military complex in Kermanshah, residential areas and the international airport in Tabriz, the Natanz nuclear site, explosions in Eslamshahr reportedly aimed at government officials, nuclear facilities in Arak and Fordow, and potential strategic assets at or near Bushehr, among other sites. Unconfirmed reports surfaced regarding a potential radiation leak at the Natanz nuclear facility. However, Iranian officials have stated that the issue appears to be limited to an internal leak. Should a leak outside the facility be confirmed, it would likely involve uranium hexafluoride (UF₆), a compound used in centrifuges. Although UF₆ is not highly radioactive itself, it poses health risks when inhaled due to its reaction to air forming toxic uranyl fluoride (UO₂F₂) and hydrogen fluoride. Such a leak could therefore contaminate surrounding areas and pose health risks to nearby individuals, but it would not constitute a large-scale nuclear incident. A global activist-led march from Egypt to Gaza, scheduled from 12 to 16 June, has already triggered significant disruption at Cairo International Airport (CAI/HECA) and across parts of the city, following the detention and deportation of participants by Egyptian authorities. The next phase of the march, planned between Arish and Gaza on 15–16 June, is expected to escalate tensions, likely prompting increased surveillance and security activity across the Sinai Peninsula. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Katz has called on Egypt to halt the march, warning that if Egyptian authorities fail to do so, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will take whatever measures necessary to prevent participants from entering Gaza. Context: In the early hours of 13 June 2025, Israel initiated a large-scale aerial assault, dubbed Operation Rising Lion , targeting what it identified as key strategic locations across Iran. These included military installations, missile infrastructure, and the nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz. According to Israeli sources, the operation involved more than 200 fighter jets and resulted in the reported deaths of Iran’s military Chief of Staff, the commander of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, a senior official at the Khatam Al Anbiya base, and five top nuclear scientists. In retaliation, Iran launched over 100 drones towards Israel, many of which traversed Iraqi and Syrian airspace, with several reportedly breaching Jordanian airspace—prompting interceptions by Jordanian defence forces. Around the same time, Israel is believed to have launched a second wave of strikes against Iran, demonstrating apparent air superiority over Syria, Iraq, and potentially parts of Iranian airspace. There are unconfirmed reports suggesting that aerial engagements may have involved Israeli, Turkish, Jordanian, Saudi, French and British aircraft, although the UK has publicly denied any involvement in the operation. Analysis: An elevated threat of missile and drone strikes from both Israel and Iran, as well as affiliated groups such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, remains highly likely. Given the small geographical size of Israel, any retaliatory attacks could have significant impact, particularly if they spill into densely populated urban areas. Current high alert levels, combined with the possibility of counterstrikes by either Israel or the United States, increase the risk of a broader regional conflict. However, most Gulf states have so far limited their response to formal condemnations of Israeli actions, showing little willingness to engage directly. The Israeli offensive is not expected to conclude on 13 June, especially in light of Prime Minister Netanyahu's stated intention to continue operations until strategic objectives are achieved—a process that may take several days or even weeks, particularly if more actors become involved. Retaliatory drone or missile strikes by Iranian proxies are anticipated, especially from Yemen and southern Lebanon, targeting Israeli interests or territory. The continuation of hostilities raises the risk of conflict spillover into neighbouring countries, placing additional strain on regional airspace security and increasing the risk to civilian and commercial aviation. With the United States expected to defend Israel in the event of a large-scale Iranian response, there is growing concern that the conflict could escalate further and persist over an extended period. Israel is likely to maintain offensive momentum in the coming days in an effort to disrupt or pre-empt any Iranian countermeasures, aiming to prevent Tehran from regrouping or mounting an effective retaliation. Implications for air travel Airspace over Iran, Iraq, Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria remains effectively closed, with flight tracking data showing a continued absence of commercial aircraft. These closures are a direct result of ongoing missile exchanges and the high risk of further strikes between Iran and Israel, making overflight operations in these regions unsafe. As of the time of reporting, Iran has not yet launched a significant retaliatory strike against Israel, despite earlier threats. Such action could still take place later in the day or at a time of Iran’s choosing, contributing to uncertainty around the duration and scope of current airspace restrictions. Major international airports in Beirut, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Jeddah, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar continue to operate, though they are experiencing considerable delays in both arrivals and departures. Passengers are being advised to check with their airlines for the latest updates and rebooking options due to the disruption caused by regional airspace closures. Jordan has revised its airspace restrictions to allow limited flight operations, but only with prior authorisation. Aircraft must enter via waypoint GENEX and exit through TULEP. In parallel, Egypt’s Ministry of Civil Aviation has placed Cairo International Airport and all national airports on high alert, anticipating potential emergency developments that may impact regional air traffic flows. Implications for maritime routes Maritime traffic in the region appears to be operating with relative normality at the time of writing; however, a prolonged conflict—lasting weeks rather than days—could lead to significant disruptions, particularly around key maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Bab al-Mandab. These routes are critical for global energy and commercial shipping, and any sustained instability could severely impact maritime logistics. At approximately 06:00 local time in the Persian Gulf, an unidentified vessel reported abnormal Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) readings, placing it at an incorrect location. The Maritime Security Center Indian Ocean (MSCIO) has indicated this may have been caused by radioelectronic interference, raising concerns about the safety and reliability of navigational systems in the area. While Houthi forces in Yemen have not officially stated an intention to resume targeting vessels associated with Israeli-aligned nations or operators, the likelihood of such actions increases significantly if the conflict between Iran and Israel continues to escalate. The group has previously targeted commercial shipping in regional waters and may view renewed hostilities as justification for further attacks. Meanwhile, maritime activity in Israeli waters has reportedly come to a halt, with vessels grounded and port operations possibly suspended as a precautionary measure amid the heightened security threat. Expectations and recommendations :  Companies are advised to strengthen travel risk assessments and ensure internal security briefings are regularly updated. It is essential to maintain fully operable communication channels with both stakeholders and employees, particularly those in or near the affected region. Airlines should coordinate closely with IATA and relevant national aviation authorities, monitoring real-time threats and ensuring the wellbeing of flight crews. Route viability must be reassessed continually, with close attention paid to regional NOTAMs—particularly from Jordan, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia—for updates on airspace restrictions and routing guidance. Maritime operators should avoid high-risk waters and develop contingency plans for rerouting in the event of disruptions to established maritime corridors. Given the volatile and rapidly evolving nature of the conflict, all operations in Iranian, Israeli, Jordanian, and Iraqi airspace should remain suspended. Additionally, due to heightened security concerns, flights in and over Syrian (OSTT/Damascus FIR), Israeli (/Tel Aviv FIR), Lebanese (OLBB/Beirut FIR), and Jordanian (OJAC/Amman FIR) airspace should also be halted until further notice. Organisations and individuals in the region should remain in close contact with their respective embassies and monitor reliable news sources and official advisories for the latest developments. Proactive situational awareness is critical to ensuring safety and preparedness in this high-risk environment.