A Fragile Ceasefire in the Middle East: What to expect in the near future?

Areas of major targeting between Israel and Iran from June 12 to June 24, 2025

Date: 02/07/2025

Introduction: A Turning Point for Regional Stability

Following Israeli and US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities during the most significant confrontation between the countries to date, from 13 to 24 June 2025, Iran’s legislative body, the Majlis, approved a motion to cease cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The decision was swiftly ratified by the Supreme National Security Council, formally ending the limited international oversight that had remained under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) framework. This development marks a pivotal shift in the region’s security landscape, as it removes a key mechanism for independent verification and transparency. While Iranian officials maintain that the country’s nuclear programme remains peaceful, the absence of even minimal monitoring has raised concern among some observers that, under certain conditions, Iran could acquire the technical capacity to develop nuclear weapons.

The end of IAEA access increases the likelihood of strategic misperceptions and significantly limits the international community’s ability to assess Iran’s nuclear trajectory. This growing uncertainty may prompt preemptive or preventive actions by states such as Israel or the United States, both of which have previously responded assertively to suspected proliferation threats. It may also trigger broader regional shifts, encouraging countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey to reconsider their nuclear postures in an evolving security environment. While the long-term consequences will be examined in more detail later in this paper, the immediate concern lies in the potential for renewed conflict, not necessarily triggered by confirmed actions, but by a climate of opacity, mistrust and rising strategic pressure.

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