Intel Brief: Situation in Armenia

laure7549
Jun 26
4 min read

Date: 26/06/2025

Where: Armenia

Who’s involved: Armenian government, opposition groups, Armenian church

What happened?

On 25 June, in an unprecedented move, Armenia’s government detained at least 14 opposition figures, adding to around 15 detained on 20 June. Detainees include church officials, businessmen, civic activists, and MPs from the exiled parliament of Nagorno-Karabakh, among them two women.
Authorities allege the opposition aimed to launch a coup through sabotage, arson and bombings, claims many see as politically motivated. The arrested include Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, a growing symbol of popular resistance following years of military defeats and widespread corruption throughout the country.
Among those arrested are leaders tied to the Armenian Church and local opposition figures, including ethnic Armenians from Nagorno Karabakh’s political structures, now increasingly marginalized by prime minister Nikol Pashinyan's administration.
The arrests coincided with Pashinyan’s first official visit to Turkey on 20 June, seen as part of his strategy to secure Ankara’s backing and satisfy preconditions for peace allegedly tied to Turkish and Azerbaijani demands.
Relations with Russia have deteriorated, while the US and EU have remained largely disengaged, offering only symbolic statements amid more pressing global concerns like Ukraine, Israel and Iran, and energy security.

Analysis

Since the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war and the region’s final fall to Azeri troops in 2023, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has implemented a broad realignment of Armenia’s domestic and foreign policy. Viewed as a democratic reformer when coming to power in 2018, he now exercises consolidated control over the security apparatus, judiciary and legislature, enabling the suppression of dissent and further centralization of power. He has publicly indicated direct involvement in judicial and other functions beyond the executive’s traditional remit. Under his leadership, Armenia has distanced itself from historic partners such as Russia and the diaspora, while drawing closer to Ankara and Baku, after attempts to forge strong ties with Washington and the EU.
Both Turkey and Azerbaijan are reportedly pressing for extensive concessions in peace negotiations, including constitutional amendments, the return of 300,000 ethnic Azeris and an unsupervised extraterritorial corridor through Armenia’s south to connect mainland Azerbaijan to the Nakhichevan exclave and Turkey, terms widely regarded as compromising Armenian sovereignty. Analysts assess that such a settlement would signal a major geopolitical shift, prioritizing regime stability and electoral positioning ahead of the 2026 elections, over strategic autonomy.
Prime Minister Pashinyan has recently adopted rhetoric and policies that increasingly align with long-standing Turkish and Azerbaijani objectives. These include efforts to marginalize the diaspora, assert control over the Armenian Apostolic Church, moderate official references to the Armenian Genocide, deny entry to pro-Armenian foreign figures, and revoke the citizenship of displaced Karabakhi Armenians following the 2023 loss of Nagorno-Karabakh. Such measures mark a clear shift from prior state policy and have raised concerns about democratic erosion and the consolidation of executive power.
The arrests of opposition figures, clergy and members of the exiled Karabakhi leadership, alongside pressure on the head of the Church, are viewed by some as part of a broader attempt to reconfigure Armenia’s political identity in line with external regional priorities. On 18 June, Armenian-Russian businessman Samvel Karapetyan was detained after expressing support for the Church. Shortly thereafter, Pashinyan announced plans to amend legislation to allow the nationalization of Karapetyan’s company, Electric Networks of Armenia, while issuing indirect warnings to employees reportedly considering protest participation. Approximately 15 opposition figures were arrested on 20 June, followed by at least 14 more on 25 June including another businessman and clergy members, all accused of plotting to overthrow the government, while on 26 June, a court case was opened against another popular archbishop and government critic, with the same charges.
The establishment of a new interior ministry from the former police structure, increased pay for security personnel, relaxed recruitment standards, and a visibly expanded police presence in Yerevan indicate a tightening of domestic security measures. Although demonstrations remain modest in scale, they are regularly met with heavily mobilized police forces tasked with containment and control. Collectively, these developments suggest a broader trend toward increasing domestic authoritarianism.

Looking ahead

Armenia’s domestic and foreign policy direction appears to be becoming more authoritarian and strategically aligned with Ankara and Baku. With limited institutional oversight, a marginalized opposition and reduced civil society presence, Prime Minister Pashinyan is positioned to further consolidate control ahead of the 2026 elections. Since 20 June, approximately 30 opposition figures have been detained, in addition to around a dozen already political prisoners, according to remaining civil society groups. This is so far the largest crackdown on opposition seen in the country since independence in 1991. The absence of effective institutional checks may contribute to a political environment that is less predictable for both domestic actors and international partners.

These developments present growing concerns for foreign businesses operating in Armenia. The arrest of and harassment of prominent business figures and government signals regarding potential nationalization reflect a deteriorating climate in terms of freedom of movement, speech and investment. The gradual expansion of security forces, the appointment of politically loyal figures to senior positions and lowered recruitment standards indicate an increased focus on internal control. At the same time, public discontent appears to be rising, and may be met with harsher government crackdowns, raising further questions about the country’s political stability. The risk of renewed conflict with Azerbaijan remains unresolved, with no clear mechanisms for de-escalation. While Armenia’s limited air corridor is unlikely to face major disruption in the event of renewed hostilities, presumed to be short and geographically confined to the south, persistent uncertainty may affect investor confidence and the broader business environment in the months ahead.

Dyami Services

Security is not a luxury but a necessity. With Dyami Security Intelligence as a Service, you gain a proactive, flexible, and affordable solution to manage risks, monitor geopolitical threats, and respond immediately to crises.

Want to know more? Visit our security-as-a-service page!