DRC Update VI: Peace deal signed between Rwanda and the DRC.

gregorio46
5 hours ago
5 min read

Date: 02/07/2025

Location: Goma, North Kivu Province, DRC; Nyabibwe, South Kivu Province, DRC; Kalehe, South Kivu Province, DRC; Bukavu, South Kivu Province, DRC. Kinshasa, Kinshasa Province, DRC. Bunia, Ituri, DRC.

Historic context:

On 28/01/2025, the Mouvement du 23 mars (March 23 movement; M23) seized Goma, one of Congo’s biggest cities in the east with a population of more than 2 million, and large swaths of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) North and South Kivu provinces in a lightning offensive.
Since then, M23 has been asserting control in Congo’s east, fighting the Congolese army and allied militias. Thousands were killed, including civilians, and many more were displaced.
This latest outbreak of hostilities is part of a conflict that has persisted for 30 years. Millions of Hutus fled to Congo to escape potential retribution after the Tutsi forces, led by Paul Kagame, seized control of Rwanda following the 1994 Rwandan genocide. In Congo, these Hutu refugees formed new militias, including the Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (FDLR).
The Congolese government has consistently accused Rwanda of supporting the M23 rebel group. Despite UN experts saying that Rwanda exercises direct control over the rebels, Kigali vehemently denies these claims. In response, the Congolese government cut diplomatic ties with Rwanda following M23’s offensive in January.
There are official Rwandan soldiers in the DRC, however, Rwanda insists that this contingent, estimated to be between 7.000 and 12.000 men strong, is there for self-defence purposes: to protect the country against Hutu militias with roots in the 1994 genocide.

What happened:

Despite decades of hostilities, the DRC and Rwanda signed a US-brokered peace agreement on 28/06/2025 in Washington DC.
The critical parts outline respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, and sources reported that one of the conditions is that Rwanda must withdraw its troops from the DRC within 90 days. This will be monitored by an international mechanism.
Aside from that, the agreement calls for the disengagement, disarmament and conditional integration of non-state groups, including M23, operating in the DRC.
Both countries also commit to ceasing support for armed groups on each other’s territory.
The DRC is also expected to conclude military operations against the FDLR within the same 90-day period in which Rwanda is expected to retreat from Congo.
Another key part of this deal is the economic dimension. The ‘economic integration plan’, intended to formalize and secure mineral trade in the region and, therefore, attract significant Western investment. This plan is still being finalized, however, and exact details are not yet clear.

Analysis

The peace agreement between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo is a crucial step in the right direction for a conflict that has been going on since the 1990s, with hundreds of thousands of people displaced as a consequence. Its success, however, remains to be seen. A few factors stand in the way.

The biggest hurdle by far is that the peace deal is made on the state level, and it remains to be seen to what extent the non-state groups fighting this conflict will adhere to its terms. There will need to be incentives for them to do so. This, of course, counts for the militias fighting on the DRC’s government’s side, but mostly for the M23 and their aligned smaller militias. M23, and not Rwanda, occupies most of the territory in the eastern DRC, and it was not present at the negotiations; instead, separate negotiations are being conducted between the DRC and M23, mediated by Qatar. At the time of writing, it is not yet clear where that will go, however, it is clear that these two ‘parallel’ peace talks need to be brought to fruition in order to avoid a situation in which one peace deal torpedoes the other.

Moreover, despite the pledge to 'stop supporting armed groups on each other’s territory,' Rwanda has never officially acknowledged its support for M23. There remains a possibility that such support could continue under the cover of plausible deniability.

Thus, it can be concluded that this peace deal is a positive development in light of the 30 years of tensions in the region, but the outcome of the parallel DRC-M23 negotiations appears to be just as important. It is still too early to celebrate. If both sides truly uphold the agreement by withdrawing their proxies, ending support for armed groups, and formalizing the mineral trade, whose illicit networks have long fueled regional tensions, this could mark the beginning of reduced violence and better living conditions, potentially driven by increased Western investment. However, without strong monitoring and sustained economic incentives, the deal risks falling apart.

A key part of understanding this peace deal is examining the broader geopolitical context. At its core, the agreement ties into the United States’ broader goal of securing stable access to critical minerals like cobalt and lithium, essential for high-tech industries. By formalizing the mineral trade and encouraging transparency, the deal aims to create better conditions for US and European companies to operate. At the same time, it reflects Washington’s effort to strengthen its foothold in Africa and counter China’s longstanding dominance in Congo’s mining sector. The hope is that by attracting more Western investment and deepening economic ties, the deal will not only secure vital resources but also shift the regional power dynamics, thereby reducing China’s grip on Africa’s valuable mineral wealth.

Conclusion

The peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda is a positive development after months of intense fighting, but whether it will actually hold remains uncertain. One of the main challenges is that the deal was struck at the state level, while the recent flare-ups in eastern DRC haven’t directly involved the states themselves, even though Rwanda is widely accused of backing and influencing the M23 rebels. Separate negotiations between M23 and the Congolese government are still ongoing, and there’s hope that whatever is agreed upon will not undermine the broader deal reached between Kigali and Kinshasa in Washington.

A major, though still vaguely defined, component of this deal is its economic aspect. What’s especially noteworthy is its geopolitical significance. It signals Washington’s strategic use of economic incentives—not just to secure critical minerals like cobalt and lithium, but also to reassert its presence in Africa after years of losing ground to China. The goal is clear: by encouraging Western investment and deeper economic ties, the U.S. hopes to loosen China’s grip on Africa’s mineral wealth.

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