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Executive Summary The previous two months have shown developments in GPS spoofing, with new forms showing up, such as terrain and weather spoofing. These are mostly centered around conflict zones. Where positive developments first surrounded the high tensions in the Southern Caucasus, progress has now once again stalled, reminding that stability still has not been achieved. Some underlit conflicts in the world carry their own risk to aviation, and deserve monitoring. |
Global
1.1. GPS Spoofing
The frequency and intensity of GPS spoofing incidents is on a rise. For now mostly found over Iraq, but it can be replicated all over the world. GPS spoofing has been shown to put aircraft upwards of 200 nm off of their flight path.
1.2. Drug trafficking
Business model jets have been and continue to be used for drug/contraband smuggling across the globe. These flights are usually to and from Latin America, Ethiopia and India. The aim of using business jets instead of commercial aviation is to lower the chance of getting caught, and increase the volume per flight.
1.3. Human trafficking
In order to improve the ease of human trafficking, and to stay away from prying eyes of airport security as well as cabin crew, traffickers prefer to use business jets if they can. This presents a worldwide challenge that is hard to combat.
1.4. Valuables trafficking
Ethiopia and India have become hubs for trafficking of valuables, such as wildlife and gold. While the majority of the detected smuggling was on commercial flights, there has been an increase in (attempts to) smuggle with business jets via smaller regional airports.
Europe
2.1. Climate activism
European airports are still targeted by climate activists who are mainly focusing on the business aviation sector. Besides physical damage, the protests result in disruptions and closures of airports, forcing jets to divert elsewhere.
2.2 GPS spoofing
GPS spoofing has been increasing in multiple countries in Europe mainly around the Baltic region, Poland and around the Black Sea creating potential dangerous situations.
Middle East
3.1. GPS interference
GPS spoofing has been increasing in multiple countries in the Middle east creating dangerous situations where aircraft near unsafe territory.
3.2. Overflight Risks
Recent developments in the region have caused a need for extra security measures differing per country. These are important to adhere to, as ignoring the risks while overflying can lead to catastrophic results.
3.3 Israel- Hamas war
On October 7th Hamas militants launched an assault on Israel from the Gaza strip, killing 1.200 people and taking more than 200 hostages. Since then the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) has struck back by starting a war between Hamas and Israel. The war in Israel has caused several airspace restrictions due to anti-aircraft weapons being used from multiple countries. Flying to and from Tel-Aviv is possible now that the conflict is more contained to just the Gaza strip. In Egypt, aircraft operators need to have caution flying over the Northern Sinai Peninsula and the Red Sea due to anti aircraft weaponry being used. Flying below FL260 should be avoided. The vast majority of Yemeni airspace should also be avoided. In the southwestern part of Saudi Arabia FIR operators should also exercise caution due to a risk of drone and missile attacks.
Asia
4.1. New Zealand pilot hostage in Papua
On February 7th 2023, independence fighters from West-Papua took a pilot from New Zealand hostage in exchange for independence from Indonesia. In May a video message appeared in which the pilot said that if demands are not met within two months, he will be executed. Several rescue attempts have failed, resulting in casualties on both sides, and the demands of the hostage takers were lowered. Last month another photo of the pilot was shared along with the message that he was and always has been kept in good health. They however did threaten to shoot him at the end of January if demands are not met.
4.2 Caucasus tensions
Tensions on the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia are still prevalent after the military operations performed on September 19 by the Azeri authorities. This January the Armenian foreign minister expressed his concerns over the peace talks. Interviews held with the Azerbaijani president on recent proposals showed a significant regression in the process of the peace talks . Overflying the Armenia Azerbaijan border area should still be avoided at the moment. Overflying Georgia using waypoints DISKA and ADEKI is preferable, as BARAD skims the border of both nations. Both nations have long range air defense systems with ranges up to and exceeding 100 km in radius, and up to 30 km in altitude.
4.3. Regional instability
Political instability has led to recurring protests and (armed) attacks, particularly in northern India, Pakistan, Myanmar and the border region of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Instabilities prove themselves risky to aviation, including business aviation. The instability in northern India poses a serious risk to aircraft on the ground, while the unrest in Pakistan and Myanmar introduce threats to overflight as well. As a result of proliferation of anti-air weapons, a minimum of FL300 is advised.
Africa
5.1. Overflight risks
Recent developments in the region have caused a need for extra security measures differing per country. These are important to adhere to, as ignoring the risks while overflying can lead to catastrophic results.
5.2. Political instability
Political instability has resulted in unpredictable protests and revolts throughout Africa. It is important to stay up-to-date with the latest developments to minimize the risk of getting caught in armed violence while staying in a vulnerable African country or region.
North America
6.1. Trafficking
Over the last two months, cartels and other criminal organizations have continued to use private aircraft to smuggle narcotics and for human trafficking. The lack of security for private flights, especially at smaller regional airports, makes it easier for traffickers.
South America
7.1. Trafficking
Cartels continue to use private aircraft for drug trafficking throughout the continent. Criminal organizations use old aircraft for these flights because a large number of aircraft are destroyed after only a small number of trafficking flights.
7.2 Regional instability
Last December (a highly disputed) more than 95% of the voters approved the move to claim the Essequibo strip controlled by Guyana during a national referendum. Top diplomats of Venezuela and Guyana will discuss the Essequibo dispute in Brazil but major breakthrough with these talks is not expected and the focus of these talks will probably lay on mutual assurances and keeping the peace between them.
Oceania
There were no significant events in Oceania in the months of December and January.
Forecast The GPS spoofing threat has continued to grow and develop as predicted in the previous REBASE. This trend is expected to continue, as it is both a form of defense for certain parties, as well as a method of disruption for others. The growing amount of conflict areas in the Middle East are not expected to reduce, for as long as the war between Israel and Hamas continues. The escalating conflict in Myanmar is expected to continue to do so, and might develop itself from an on-ground and lower level FL risk, to a total overflight risk. |
[This is the end of the light version for REBASE, for the full version, feel free to contact us]