Date: 05/12/2025 Executive Summary During 2025, reports have been made indicating the presence of uniformed, armed personnel (likely Russian-associated) aboard civilian vessels thought to be part of the vast Russian ‘shadow fleet’ comprising ageing, uninsured oil tankers and cargo vessels registered under flags of convenience and with deliberately confusing ownership structures. These uniformed personnel serve intelligence, surveillance, and command-and-control functions abo

Date:  02/12/2025  (11:30 UTC+01:00) Where?  Tanzania: Dar es Salaam, Arusha, Mwanza, Dodoma (and possibly more cities) What happened?  Recently, it was announced that Tanzania will cancel its celebration for its 64th Independence Day, held on  09/12/2025 . The official reason is that the money for the festivities is needed to rebuild infrastructure damaged during the post-election protests that swept the nation in early November. The decision appears to have deeper political

26 November 2025 Executive Summary Venezuela has evolved into one of the most significant hybrid threat hubs in the Western Hemisphere, where state authority, criminal enterprises, armed groups, and foreign intelligence services converge. The Maduro regime’s alliances with Iran, Russia, and Cuba — combined with deep integration with FARC dissident factions, the ELN, and transnational criminal organizations — have transformed the country into a strategic platform for destabili

Date:  27/11/2025  (12:00 UTC+01:00) Where?  Guinea-Bissau; Bissau What happened?  On 23/11/2025 , the West-African nation Guinea-Bissau held presidential and legislative elections. If the incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló would manage to become re-elected, he would be the first president in Guinea-Bissau to do so in about three decades.  Tensions surrounding the elections had been simmering for a while. On 31/10/2025 , a group of senior officers in the country’s army was arrest

Date:   25/11/2025 (16:30 UTC+01:00) Where?  Europe; Romania, Moldova,  the Netherlands, Lithuania. Belgium, Sweden, Germany What happened?  On 25/11/2025 , six Russian drones crossed Moldovan and Romanian airspace during a large strike on Ukraine. One crashed near the village of Etulia, with at least one drone tracked heading toward the Romanian border. Romanian air defence remained on alert after previous incursions. The Romanian MoD reported two drone incursions from Ukrai

Date:  24/11/2025 (16:00 UTC+01:00) Who?  Russian intelligence-gathering vessel Yantar (Project 22010 oceanographic vessel, ~108 metres, IMO 7524419); operated by Russian Ministry of Defence Main Directorate of Deep-Sea Research (GUGI); deployed by Russian Navy/intelligence agencies.   Where?  Not expressly given by the British government, but according to open source flight data and the approaches of two military aircraft, the location of the incident likely occurred north w

Date:  18/11/2025  (10:45 UTC+01:00) Where?  Bangladesh; South Asia What happened?  On 17/11/2025 , former Bangladesh leader Sheikh Hasina was sentenced to death in absentia by a special tribunal in Dhaka for crimes against humanity over her government’s violent crackdown on student-led protests last year . Hasina was convicted of incitement, issuing kill orders and inaction to prevent atrocities during the government crackdown on the student protests. Along with her, her for