Intel Brief: Renewed India-Pakistan Tensions

gregorio46
May 7
4 min read

Date: 07/05/2025 - update of previous version posted on 25/04/2025

Where:

Jammu and Kashmir Region, Anantnag District

Who’s involved:

India, Pakistan

What happened:

On 07/05/2025, India started ‘Operation Sindoor’, conducting several coordinated airstrikes against Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) militant camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. India claims only terrorist infrastructure was hit and India’s Ministry of Defense described the operation as ‘focused, measured, and non-escalatory.’
Pakistan denies that the attacks only hit terrorist infrastructure, claiming that they hit civilian infrastructure, and stated it considers this an ‘act of war’. In retaliation, Pakistan claims it shot down five Indian Air Force jets and one drone. As of now, reports state that three Indian fighter jets were shot down (possibly 1x Su-30, 1x Mirage 2000 and 1x Rafale). The confirmation of the lost aircrafts comes from the Indian authorities, which state that three jets have ‘crashed’. Another unnamed Indian official has mentioned that an additional unknown aircraft crashed in Punjab (likely another IAF aircraft, for a total of four fighters lost). Unconfirmed reports state that Pakistan lost one aircraft (likely a JF-17). Cross-border shelling continues along the Line of Control (LoC).
Pakistan reports 26 fatalities and over 46 injuries after the airstrikes. Indian authorities claim at least 10 deaths and numerous injuries in Indian-administered Kashmir resulting from alleged Pakistani firing.
Airlines are avoiding overflying the border between the two countries, and most are avoiding flying over Pakistan (OPLR/Lahore and OPKR/Karachi FIRs) altogether, such as KLM, Air France, Thai Airways, Korean Air and Lufthansa and its subsidiaries. Flight operations were suspended at Islamabad, Lahore, and Karachi, but were restored shortly after. Air India has cancelled flights to and from Jammu, Srinagar, Leh, Jodhpur, Amritsar, Bhuj, Jamnagar, Chandigarh and Rajkot.
The U.N. Secretary General urged India and Pakistan to ‘avoid a military confrontation,’ while Qatar, the UAE, the US, China, Turkey and the EU called for restraint and to avoid further escalation. Israel’s ambassador to India expressed support for ‘India’s right to self-defence.’
On 07/05/2025, the Pakistani Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, announced that the Pakistani Armed Forces have been authorized to undertake "corresponding actions” against India. On X (formerly Twitter), he also stated that “a resolute response is already underway”.

Context:

On 22/04/2025, a group of armed militants conducted a terrorist attack in the town of Pahalgam, Anantnag district, Jammu and Kashmir region. The attack resulted in 26 deaths (25 Indian nationals and 1 Nepalese national). The Resistance Front (TRF), likely a Lashkar-e-Taiba-affiliated organization, has since claimed responsibility for the attack. Lashkar-e-Taiba is a Pakistani Islamic terrorist organization and a designated terrorist group by a number of countries, including the EU.
On 23/04/2025, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, the treaty allows for the sharing of the waters of the Indus River system, which is especially important for Pakistan’s agricultural sector. India also closed the Integrated Check Post Attari, one of the critical checkpoints along the Pakistani-Indian border in the Punjab region, and the main (and only) hub for cross-border land trade between the two countries.
On 23/04/2025, India banned Pakistani nationals from travelling to India under the SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) Visa Exemption Scheme visas (SVAS). Moreover, all the previously issued visas are now invalid. All Pakistani nationals residing or otherwise located in India under SVAS visas were given 48 hours to leave the country. India also scaled down the contingent of Pakistani diplomats and reduced the Pakistani High Commission staff from 55 to 30 members.
On 23/04/2025, India declared the Defence/Military, Naval and Air advisors in the Pakistani High Commission persona non grata. They were given a week to leave India. India will also withdraw its advisors from the Indian High Commission in Islamabad.
On 24/04/2025, a brief exchange of gunfire between Pakistani and Indian forces took place on the border between India-administered Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistani-administered Azad Kashmir. The United Nations has called for maximum restraint from both countries, emphasizing the importance of resolving issues peacefully through meaningful engagement.

Analysis:

The Kashmir conflict is a long-standing territorial dispute between India and Pakistan, over the region of Jammu and Kashmir. Both countries claim the regions in full but only control parts of it. The conflict traces back to 1947, when British India was partitioned into India and Pakistan, with both nations claiming the entirety of the former state. This led to the first war, followed by additional wars and military skirmishes over the years.
The current tensions are reminiscent of the 2019 escalation that followed the Pulwama attack of 2019, in which 40 Indian Central Reserve personnel were killed. However, the Pahalgam attack carries a higher diplomatic and socio-political weight, as in this case, the victims were civilians. The timing of the attack is also crucial; Indian Prime Minister Modi was visiting Saudi Arabia and U.S. Vice President Vance was visiting India. Moreover, the attack occurred less than a week after a speech by the Pakistani Army Chief, General Asim Munir, which, among other things, focused on the need for Kashmir to be Pakistani.
The Indian response to the attacks also differs. After the Pulwama attack, India launched a single airstrike towards a JeM camp. In response, Pakistan shot down an Indian Air Force jet. Both India and Pakistan’s current attacks and retaliations are more severe, driving tensions and heightened sentiments on both sides. However, India avoided Pakistani military targets and stayed out of its airspace, echoing previous limited strikes and suggesting a strategy of measured retaliation. Historical precedents also show capacity for de-escalation after limited attacks, and international pressure to avoid a conflict should incentivize the two countries to contain the crisis.