Intel Brief: Renewed India-Pakistan Tensions

Date: 25/04/2025

Where:

Jammu and Kashmir Region, Anantnag District

Who’s involved:

India, Pakistan

What happened:

On 22/04/2025, a group of armed militants conducted a terrorist attack in the town of Pahalgam, Anantnag district, Jammu and Kashmir region. The attack resulted in 26 deaths (25 Indian nationals and 1 Nepalese national). The Resistance Front (TRF), likely a Lashkar-e-Taiba-affiliated organization, has since claimed responsibility for the attack. Lashkar-e-Taiba is a Pakistani Islamic terrorist organization and a designated terrorist group by several countries, including the EU.
On 23/04/2025, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, which allows for the sharing of the waters of the Indus River system, which is especially important for Pakistan’s agricultural sector. India also closed the Integrated Check Post Attari, one of the critical checkpoints along the Pakistani-Indian border in the Punjab region, and the main (and only) hub for cross-border land trade between the two countries.
On 23/04/2025, India banned Pakistani nationals from travelling to India under the SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) Visa Exemption Scheme visas (SVAS). Moreover, all the previously issued visas are now invalid. All Pakistani nationals residing or otherwise located in India under SVAS visas were given 48 hours to leave the country. India also scaled down the contingent of Pakistani diplomats and reduced the Pakistani High Commission staff from 55 to 30 members.
On 23/04/2025, India declared the Defence/Military, Naval and Air advisors in the Pakistani High Commission persona non grata. They were given a week to leave India. India will also withdraw its advisors from the Indian High Commission in Islamabad.
On 24/04/2025, the Pakistani Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) issued a Notice-to-Airmen (NOTAM) stating that the Pakistani airspace, OPLR/Lahore FIR and OPKR/Karachi FIR, is closed to all Indian operators, in response to the actions taken by India following the Pahalgam attack. This means all Indian-registered airlines are prohibited from flying over Pakistani airspace and must take alternative routes. It is not the first time Pakistan has closed its airspace to Indian carriers. The previous instance followed the 2019 Pulwama attack. Islamabad also suspended trade with India and warned that any attempt by India to divert water from the Indus River would be considered an act of war.
As of 24/04/2025, the Pakistani CAA issued a NOTAM warning of a live-fire exercise by the Pakistani Navy in the Arabian Sea. India’s INS Vikrant (CV-R11) and INS Surat (DDG-D69)are also in the area. INS Surat conducted a live-fire exercise of its own, while INS Vikrant, previously due in port, is now circling in the Arabian Sea, likely acting as an added contingent in the area.
On 24/04/2025, a brief exchange of gunfire between Pakistani and Indian forces took place on the border between India-administered Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistani-administered Azad Kashmir. The United Nations has called for maximum restraint from both countries, emphasizing the importance of resolving issues peacefully through meaningful engagement.

Analysis:

The Kashmir conflict is a long-standing territorial dispute between India and Pakistan, over the region of Jammu and Kashmir. Both countries claim the regions in full but only control in parts. The conflict traces back to 1947, when British India was partitioned into India and Pakistan, with both nations claiming the entirety of the former state. This led to the first war, followed by additional wars and military skirmishes over the years.
The current tensions are reminiscent of the 2019 escalation that followed the Pulwama attack of 2019, in which 40 Indian Central Reserve personnel were killed. However, the Pahalgam attack carries a higher diplomatic and socio-political weight, as in this case, the victims were civilians. The timing of the attack is also crucial; Indian Prime Minister Modi was visiting Saudi Arabia and U.S. Vice President Vance was visiting India. Moreover, the attack occurred less than a week after a speech by the Pakistani Army Chief, General Asim Munir, which, among other things, focused on the need for Kashmir to be Pakistani.
India will likely conduct a retaliatory campaign against targets in Pakistan, as the domestic pressure on the government is intense. The scope of this campaign will likely be limited, but the risk for further escalation is significant. In addition to closing the airspace, Pakistan also suspended trade with India. It warned that any attempt by India to divert water from the Indus River would be considered an act of war.

Conclusion:

The current tensions are reminiscent of the 2019 escalation that followed the Pulwama attack on Indian Central Reserve Force personnel. Given the current trajectory, the coming days may witness increased diplomatic isolation, suspensions of bilateral agreements, and potential military skirmishes. A larger retaliatory campaign by India on targets located in Pakistan is likely; in that case, Pakistan is likely to respond with a limited campaign of its own. The risk of further escalation beyond limited military campaigns exists, but is not expected. The situation remains volatile, and it is recommended to refrain from conducting any operations in the Kashmir region.