Intel Brief Update (2): India and Pakistan Agree to a Ceasefire

gregorio46
4 hours ago
3 min read

Date: 12/05/2025 - update of previous version posted on 09/05/2025

Where:

Jammu and Kashmir Region, Anantnag District, Indian-Pakistani border area.

Who’s involved:

India
Pakistan

General overview of the latest developments:

On 10/05/2025, India and Pakistan agreed to a U.S.-brokered ceasefire to halt escalating hostilities. However, the truce was fragile; reports of artillery fire and drone incursions emerged shortly after its implementation, with both sides accusing each other of violations.
As of today, 12/05/2025, reports indicated a relative calm along the India-Pakistan border, with no overnight firing in the heavily militarized regions, including Jammu and Kashmir. Both nations are scheduled to hold talks between top military leaders about the next steps.
Both nations began to ease airspace restrictions. On 12/05/2025, India reopened 32 airports that were temporarily shut due to security concerns, allowing civil aviation operations to resume. However, airports warn that changing airspace dynamics and newly mandated security protocols from India’s Bureau of Civil Aviation Security (BCAS) could lead to potential schedule changes and longer wait times at checkpoints. Pakistan reopened its airspace on 10/05/2025 following a closure implemented earlier that morning.
On 07/05/2025, India launched ‘Operation Sindoor’, striking multiple coordinated airstrikes against ‘terrorist camps’ in Pakistan in retaliation for a deadly terrorist attack on Hindu tourists in India-administered Kashmir on 22/04/2025.
Since then, tensions between the two South Asian neighbours have been escalating, and the conflict has led to the worst fighting between India and Pakistan in nearly 3 decades. Both countries have exchanged cross-border fire and shelling, and fired missiles and drones at each other.
For the first time since the full-scale war of 1971 between India and Pakistan, India has attacked places in Pakistan outside of Kashmir.

Historic Context:

The Kashmir conflict, a territorial dispute between India and Pakistan, dates back to 1947, following the partition of British India. Both nations claim Jammu and Kashmir in full. The Line of Control (LoC) became the border between the Indian- and Pakistani-controlled parts of the former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. An uneasy peace followed, with frequent skirmishes between the neighbours over the years.
On 22/04/2025, militants attacked Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir, killing 26 people. The Resistance Front (linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba) claimed responsibility.
Retaliatory measures followed suit. On 23/04/2025, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, endangering Pakistan’s crucial water supply. India also closed the Attari trade checkpoint, banned travel under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme, and expelled Pakistani diplomats. Both countries are barred from entering each other’s airspace.

Latest updates:

On 09/05/2025, fighting intensified along the Line of Control (LoC) and parts of the international border. Both sides engaged in heavy artillery shelling, with exchanges reported in Poonch, Rajouri, and Kupwara sectors.
Cross-border infiltration attempts were also reported, with India claiming it intercepted several armed militants attempting to cross into Jammu and Kashmir. Civilian areas on both sides came under fire, resulting in multiple casualties and the continued displacement of local populations. Indian Air Force jets were seen conducting low-altitude flights near the LoC, while Pakistan reportedly moved additional air defense assets closer to the border.
On 09/05/2025, India issued a series of Notices to Airmen (NOTAMs) announcing the temporary closure of 32 airports across northern and western regions, effective from 5:29 AM local time on 15/05/2025.
On 10/05/2025, the Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority (PCAA) announced a complete closure of Pakistani airspace at 3:15 AM local time, initially set to remain in effect until at least 12:00 PM local time on 11/05/2025.
Later that same day, a U.S.-brokered ceasefire was announced following high-level diplomatic efforts. In response to the ceasefire, the PCAA reopened Pakistani airspace at 5:05 PM local time.
However, artillery exchanges and drone activity continued overnight, casting doubt on the truce’s effectiveness. Civilian areas near the LoC and in Punjab were hit by shelling, with casualties reported on both sides.
On 11/05/2025, India claimed that its airstrikes had eliminated over 100 militants in precision attacks on Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) sites deep inside Pakistan-administered territory. Pakistan denied the casualty figures and insisted that civilian and military infrastructure was targeted. Simultaneously, Pakistan reported retaliatory strikes on 26 Indian military sites. The death toll continued to rise, with close to 70 confirmed dead by evening.
On 12/05/2025, both countries began showing signs of de-escalation. India reopened 32 airports previously closed, and commercial flights resumed with caution. No new cross-border attacks were reported overnight. Military officials from both sides held initial talks via secure channels, with plans for further discussions. However, border villages remain evacuated due to fears of unexploded ordnance and renewed conflict.
Since the attack on 22/04/2025, airlines are still avoiding overflying the border between the two countries, and most international carriers are avoiding flying over Pakistan (OPLR/Lahore and OPKR/Karachi FIRs) altogether.