Intel Brief: Mexico’s Contested Judicial Elections

alessia988
May 30
3 min read

When: 01/06/2025

What:

On 01/06/2025, Mexico will hold its first judicial elections. Mexican citizens will directly elect nine Supreme Court justices, two magistrates for the Superior Chamber of the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary, 15 magistrates for the Regional Chambers of the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary, five members of the Judicial Disciplinary Tribunal, 464 circuit court magistrates, and 386 district court judges. This reform is unprecedented in scale: no other country in the world elects all its judges by popular vote.
Mexico has never appointed judges by direct vote. Before the judicial reform, judges were appointed through a formal institutional process involving both the executive and legislative branches. Supreme Court justices were nominated by the President and confirmed by a two-thirds vote in the Senate. Federal judges were selected through a merit-based process overseen by the Federal Judicial Council, involving exams and career progression. State-level judges were appointed through varying state-specific procedures, often involving governors and local legislatures. In this new system, candidates must first be evaluated and nominated by committees representing the executive, legislative and judicial branches, but the final selection is entirely in the hands of voters.
The promoters of the judicial reform, which was first presented in February 2024 by former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) and will be implemented by his successor President Claudia Sheinbaum, argue that direct elections favor accountability and combat corruption and nepotism. Advocates also highlight high levels of impunity and delayed justice within the existing system.
The reform, however, has also drawn much criticism from opposition figures, judicial institutions, the US State Department, the Organization of American States, and the United Nations. Thousands also participated in protests against the reform. Critics highlight that the reform makes the judiciary susceptible to corruption and can compromise the independence of the branch, as judges may be concerned with public approval, potentially seeking future office. The influence of criminal organizations in the elections is also a concern for many.

Analysis:

The 2024 Presidential elections were the most violent in Mexico’s history. Despite the current election having recorded less violence in comparison, the primary risk remains violence and threats from cartels to both candidates and voters. At least four candidates have received threats and stopped running. Organized crime groups are expected to exert influence, particularly in regions where they hold substantial power.
Another risk stems from a potential erosion of judicial independence. Despite regulations prohibiting party endorsements and campaign donations, political groups have likely attempted to sway voting behavior. Mexico’s electoral authority is currently investigating claims that political parties have tried to influence voters in Nuevo Leon and Mexico City. This creates risks of politicizing the judiciary and undermining its independence.
The absence of strong vetting processes for judicial candidates could lead to the election of individuals lacking the necessary qualifications or integrity. In January, the selection committee had 18 days to interview 10.887 eligible candidates. The ballot includes candidates with questionable qualifications, in some instances candidates with no experience, well beyond retirement age, or with links to the business or political world. In other cases, candidates have criminal links or previous criminal charges. While the full impact on the judiciary remains uncertain, the questionable qualifications of some candidates have already raised doubts about the new system’s integrity.
Mexico is also the first country to attempt direct elections for all judicial posts at every level, making the process unpredictable and logistically challenging. Polls indicate low voter turnout, with only about a third of eligible voters expected to participate. Aside from that, the majority of people polled did not know any of the candidates on the ballot. The general public’s lack of knowledge about candidates increased the likelihood of unqualified or controversial figures being elected.
But most importantly: the reform’s intention may backfire, as this new system creates a dynamic in which judges are reliant on the public for approval. This dynamic exposes them to political pressures, populist sentiment and possible intimidation by Mexico’s powerful criminal organizations.

Recommendations:

Mexico has witnessed significant protests over the judicial reform, including an incident last year where demonstrators stormed the Senate building to disrupt the debate on the overhaul.
- If you are traveling in Mexico around the elections on 01/06/2025, exercise caution and steer clear of protest areas.
- Monitor local news and government travel advisories for updates on protest activity and security risks in your area.
- Avoid travel to high-risk regions such as Colima, Guerrero, Michoacán, Sinaloa, Tamaulipas, and Zacatecas, as these areas experience elevated levels of crime and violence.
- Be aware that security checkpoints and increased police or military presence are common during times of heightened tension; comply with authorities and carry identification at all times.