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Updated Early Warning Brief: Armenia Azerbaijan



 

Date:

14/09/2023


Where:

  • Armenia and Azerbaijan

Who’s involved:

  • Armenian government, Azeri government, Russian government, Turkish government.


What happened?

  • Azerbaijan has been mobilizing a significant military force since 06/09/2023 to the border with Armenia. This all comes after progression during peace talks between the countries have ground to a halt. Additionally, Azeri state media repeatedly has depicted Armenia as ‘western-Azerbaijan’.

  • Azerbaijan is almost step-for-step copying Russia’s behavior before their full-scale invasion of Ukraine.


Analysis:

  • As a preventative measure, all aviation should avoid the airspace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Routing via Georgia and Waypoints DISKA and ADEKI should be done instead. Even though BARAD is not located on the Armenian-Azeri border, it should be avoided.

  • The chance of full-scale conflict between the two nations is highly likely. The goal of Azerbaijan for such a conflict is likely to connect Azerbaijan to its exclave Nakchivan. This would provide Azerbaijan with a direct land connection to its closest ally, Turkey. This would mean that Azerbaijan’s goal for the potential conflict would be to annex the south of Armenia.

  • There is a small chance that the current troop buildup is used as a political move, to try and force certain results in the ‘peace’ talks between the two countries.

  • If a full-scale conflict breaks out in the region, air travel will be severely affected, as it would be unsafe to travel anywhere near the territories of Armenia or Azerbaijan. This would close yet another option for commercial aviation between Europe and Asia.

 
Updated Armenia-Azerbaijan Early Warning
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