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Written by Sietske Moshuldayev Where several countries have seen a clear escalation in tensions over the past month, a majority of the conflicts covered in this report focus on situations where threats are looming, with potential exacerbations yet to come. Ten conflicts are briefly identified below based on global news monitoring and open-source intelligence gathering. In past weeks, Russian operations in Ukraine have continued, Wagner Group operations in Mali raised international concerns and Afghanistan experienced deadly militant attacks. North Korean nuclear threats have reinvigorated and a China-Solomon Islands security pact alarmed other regional players. Meanwhile, gang violence intensified in Haiti and the upcoming Somali presidential elections bolstered threat levels, amidst ongoing Israel-Palestine attacks. In addition, both Peru and Sri Lanka faced civil protests. Keeping track of further potential escalations among these conflicts is called for. 1. World Conflicts - April 2022 a. The Russia-Ukraine Crisis Russian offensives in Eastern Ukraine have intensified as diplomatic talks continue to prove no alternative to the ongoing eleven-week conflict. With heavy fighting especially in Mariupol, cross-border distress was fuelled by Russian claims that Ukraine attacked its Belgorod region. Recent explosions in the Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria - which local and Russian media attributed to Ukrainian saboteurs - are also perceived as potential indicators of Russian military interest in pulling Moldova into the conflict. This month also saw Russia close-off gas pipelines to Poland and Bulgaria, with energy insecurity complicating unanimous support for a sixth European Union sanction packet. As NATO’s talks to admit Finland and Sweden to the military alliance advance, the United States and United Nations continue to penalize Russia while the threat of nuclear weapons still looms. With UN General Secretary Antonio Guterres visiting Ukraine end-April, various countries are re-opening their diplomatic missions in Kyiv. As the number of Ukrainian refugees nears 6 million and sanctions are expected to cause an economic recession for Russia, the conflict will likely continue to impact many beyond Ukrainian and Russian borders in the upcoming weeks. b. Greater Security Concerns in Mali International concerns over the stability and security in Mali have amplified this past month following indications of greater cooperation between Malian security forces and Wagner Group, a Russian private military company (PMC). They are currently filling the void left by reduced European Union military commitment to the country, signalled earlier this year by the departure of French troops. Despite official Malian and Russian claims that Wagner Group only provides military instructors, the PMC fighters were reportedly involved in the killings of approximately 300 civilians in March. This month, the EU has halted part of their training of Malian forces and Germany has stepped out of its EU contributions to prevent its troops from collaborating with the mercenaries. Facing continued terrorist attacks, a worsening food crisis, economic sanctions and an uncertain future of the UN’s stabilization mission in the country, the extended Malian junta leadership seems to be leaning towards Russia to further secure their position. c. Militant Attacks in Afghanistan Militant activity continues to challenge Taliban control over Afghanistan and threaten the security of Afghan civilians. Following fatal explosions in Mazar-e-Sharif and Kunduz, the deadliest bombing took place on April 29th at the Khalifa Sahib Mosque in Kabul where at least fifty people were killed. A week earlier, attacks at a high school in Kabul killed six and injured more than twenty people. With some explosions claimed by the Islamic State, Central and South Asian states are concerned about their border security and the potential overflow of militant activity. In the case of Pakistan, Afghan-based militants have already launched cross-border attacks. Pakistan retaliated through airstrikes, killing at least forty seven Afghans - most claimed to be women and children. Meanwhile, the Taliban continues to face international economic sanctions and criticism over their intensifying control over females in the country. In this context, the degree of the Talibans’ consolidation over the country remains disputable. d. Revived North Korean Nuclear Threats Several indications have given rise to concerns that North Korea may re-initiate its nuclear weapon testing in the upcoming month, despite its programme being on halt since 2018. North Korean President Kim Yong Un has promised to enhance the country’s nuclear programme, a month after claims of a successful intercontinental ballistic missile launch in March. One of fifteen missile tests this year already, the aforementioned launch signifies the first of its kind since 2017 - with the used missile known for its capability to carry nuclear weapons. The United States has issued a warning about nuclear tests as satellite images have shown the reactivation of North Korea’s testing site. This comes right as South Korea has inaugurated a new president who is more conservative and hardline on issues pertaining to its northern neighbour. In addition to US President Biden's scheduled visit to East Asia from May 20th to 24th, dynamics on the Korean peninsula may see frictions intensify. e. Concerns over the Solomon Islands and China Security Pact Diplomatic tensions in the South Pacific Ocean rose this month following the signing of a security pact between the Solomon Islands and China in mid-April. The pact, which comes three years after the Solomon Islands broke-off relations with Taiwan, has caused the United States, Australia and Japan to voice concern over potential Chinese military expansion in the region. China, however, has claimed that it does not seek to develop a naval base on the islands and the Solomon Islands have also stated that they will not permit this. Following the re-opening of its embassy on the Islands in February, the US has nonetheless additionally sent a top official to the islands and enhanced its cooperation with Papua New Guinea. As both the US and China continue to expand their influence in the region, it remains to be seen what further issues this new security arrangement may bring about. 2. Brief Alerts - April 2022 1. Intensified Gang Violence in Haiti Gang violence in Haiti turned deadly at the end of April, forcing locals to relocate and threatening diplomats and tourists. With general violence occurring daily, Acting-President Ariel Henry’s term having ended in February this year and elections not yet rescheduled, the question remains as to who is to hold political power. 2. Violent Electoral Pressures in Somalia Deadly Al-Shabaab terrorist attacks have targeted lawmakers and international peacekeeping forces in Somalia as presidential elections are coming up on May 15th. Amidst a worsening famine, continued IMF support is conditioned upon the installation of a new government by May 17th. With the loyalty of national security forces split between different political leaders, stakes are raised and the election process requires close monitoring. 3. Ongoing Israel-Palestine Escalations Israel-Palestine relations remain tense as violent attacks on either side continue. Among other attacks, this past month saw weekly confrontations at the Al Aqsa mosque, injuring at least 57 and 42 people on different occasions. With various international actors condemning the ongoing attacks, stability is not yet in sight. 4. Civil Unrest in Peru The Peruvian government imposed a short-lived state of emergency on April 5th in response to nationwide protests and strikes against increased fuel and fertilizer costs. With economic conditions under pressure from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis and recurring national political challenges, vulnerabilities may be exacerbated both in Peru and other South American countries. 5. A Heightened Crisis in Sri Lanka Violent clashes ensue in Sri Lanka as the economic and political crisis deepens. Despite top-level officials resigning, protestors continue to demand President Gotabaya Rajapaksa also step down. With demonstrations likely to continue, these escalations have raised alarm in other countries with similar economic conditions, such as Nepal. Conclusion The above-mentioned conflicts indicate potential escalatory events across the globe. As international, regional and national players attempt to consolidate their power, civilians continue to be entangled and embroiled in the ensuing disputes, with their safety and security threatened. With developments in one conflict able to influence the course of others, such as the impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on global economic trends, monitoring multiple conflicts simultaneously is of high value. Similarly, discords reflecting decades-long historical contestations - in addition to other situations not covered in this report - require continuous close monitoring and preparedness for sudden aggravations. About the author: Sietske Moshuldayev Sietske has an international background and is inherently intrigued by the causes and consequences of geopolitical events. She has completed two bachelors at the University of Leiden (International Studies, BA & Political Science, BSc) and currently pursues a masters in International Security at Sciences Po, Paris. Having specialized in East Asian affairs for her undergraduate studies, she now focuses on global risks and risk management.

Written by Jacob Dickinson. Following an intense period of political in-fighting and constitutional meddling, Imran Khan of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party (PTI), the Prime Minister of Pakistan since 2018, was removed from power on the 10th April, 2022. His replacement marks a return to Pakistan’s political dynasties. Shehbaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML), former chief administrator of Punjab, came to power with the promise of a return to stability. Yet the new Prime Minister faces acute uncertainty in Pakistan’s politics, economic situation, and security threats from India and Afghanistan. Therefore, despite the hopes of Khan’s detractors for a semblance of stability, Pakistan is facing short and long-term turmoil. A ‘Managed Democracy’ The new Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, came to power on the back of a complex legacy. In the 2018 general election, Imran Khan campaigned on a populist message against the corruption scandals of Pakistan’s political families. He pledged to build an ‘Islamic Welfare State,’ end the repeated debt cycles of Pakistan’s economy, and curb rampant corruption. He was initially praised for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan. Infections were low during the initial phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the economic and social consequences were dire. Imran Khan was credited with preventing 15 million families from falling into extreme poverty through a cash transfer payment program to low income households. However, Khan was unsuccessful in reducing Pakistan’s pervasive corruption, and under his administration, Pakistan dropped to the bottom third of the Transparency International annual corruption index. Pakistan is sometimes labeled a ‘managed democracy’ due to the position of the military which dominates the political and economic institutions of Pakistan. Since the Partition of British India and the founding of Pakistan in 1947, the military has seized power 3 times (1958-71, 1977-88, 1999-2008) and retains control of key foreign policy posts. Maintaining a working relationship between the government and the military is a necessity for leading politicians. Pakistan’s powerful Army Chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, was instrumental in Imran Khan’s rise to power. With his fall from power, it is noteworthy that the military did not play a part in civilian politics, given its history of coup d’états. While the military declared that there will be ‘no return to martial law in Pakistan,’ the armed forces had originally turned against the political dynasties of Sharif and Bhutto who are part of the current ruling coalition. Civil-military relations could, therefore, worsen under the current leadership. The effect of Khan’s ousting from power on Pakistan’s political institutions are contradictory. On the one hand, the political institutions showed remarkable resilience in upholding the constitution. On the other hand, there are signs of further political instability. Dismissing his ousting as a US conspiracy, Khan has called for immediate elections and public protests against the Sharif administration. Sharif will struggle to maintain stability under intense public pressure while holding together a coalition government of three parties which share very little common ideological ground, especially with the acute economic pressures facing Pakistan. Debt without development Pakistan’s society faces acute developmental challenges owing to Pakistan’s social inequalities. Pakistan is a young country with a median age of 23 and a population of 220 million. Yet Pakistan underperforms when compared with Bangladesh and India. Pakistan’s literacy rate is 62.3% of the population compared with India and Bangladesh which are 74.9% and 74.4% respectively. The conflict in Ukraine and the impact on global energy and food markets has also significantly affected the economic situation in Pakistan. According to the United Nations Center for Trade And Development (UNCTAD), Pakistan is one of 10 countries facing both a shortage of funds for debt and a substantial trade imbalance. Additionally, the elite’s control of unproductive but lucrative export industries has made Pakistan subject to repeated balance of payments crises. The Pakistani rupee foreign currency reserves supplies are the lowest in 23 months, suggesting that the country will be unable to pay for food and oil imports without comprehensive adjustment. Image 1. Composition of Pakistan’s external public debt as of end of June 2021. Image retrieved from Dawn News. As the World Bank has warned, Pakistan and low and middle income countries around the world are facing immediate risk of exorbitant rates of debt servicing costs and unsustainable loans. Shehbaz Sharif has indicated that he is willing to negotiate with the IMF in return for extended debt servicing payments. On 24th April, the IMF reached an agreement with the government of Pakistan to increase the size of the $6 billion loan program by $2 billion and extend the loan payment until 2023. However, the implementation of fiscal austerity measures will severely strain the newly formed government. Additionally, the possibility of debt restructuring is made more difficult due to the emergence of other lenders since the mid-2000s. Global debt markets are populated not only with bilateral governments and international institutions, but also with private commercial institutions. With many actors with divergent commercial and geopolitical interests (see Image 1), it is difficult to envision a comprehensive restructuring of Pakistan’s debt. Security threats in South Asia Pakistan’s position on the doorstep of the Indo-Pacific and Central Asia places it at a geopolitical crossroad between Afghanistan, India, and China. The security situation between Pakistan and Afghanistan is worsening since the removal of US forces and the return of the Taliban in August 2021. Conflicts between Taliban affiliated groups and Pakistan security forces have escalated over the Durand Line, a historically disputed region since the boundaries were drawn by British imperialists in the mid-20th century. In April 2022, Pakistan security forces had allegedly launched air strikes on Afghan border villages killing 45 people. While the Pakistan security forces have not admitted carrying out strikes, they targeted the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (PTT) militant group, who have been attacking Pakistan territory from within Afghanistan. On the east of the country, Pakistan has looked to China to counter India’s strong military relationship with Russia. While Russia has supplied India with Su-330 aircraft, Pakistan has purchased Chinese-made JF-17 fighter jets. Amidst deepening maritime presence by Western powers in the Indo-Pacific, Beijing is also ramping up naval power to Pakistan, exporting 8 submarines scheduled for delivery in 2024. This is a move to counter what Beijing sees as the new Cold War encircling the Indo-Pacific, which it sees as a vital strategic interest. Sharif has also said that he wants to strengthen ties with China. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the largest investment out of the China-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, there are financial problems with servicing costs of the CPEC and the Gwadar port, the flagship CPEC project in Pakistan, has run into construction problems. While India-Pakistan relations will continue to be defined by their history, Sharif has advocated a softer approach to India. The long-standing sovereignty dispute between India and Pakistan over Kashmir had worsened under Imran Khan. The former Prime Minister criticized Modi’s BJP nationalist government and imposition of a draconian citizenship law in contested Kashmir in 2020. In response, Khan reinforced the nuclear capabilities of Pakistan ending with a ceasefire on the Kashmir Line of Control. Sharif has expressed intentions to seek better relations with India, though they will be constrained by India’s concerns over the military’s support for militant groups in Indian-controlled Kashmir. Future outlook Pakistan’s political turmoil is likely to continue in the coming months. Sharif’s tenuous hold on power, worsening relations with the military, and a new election scheduled for 2023 suggests that political stability is at risk. Pakistan is also facing, like other low and middle income countries across the world, high risk of debt default and severe cuts in socially necessary public services, as well as rampant inflation derived from rises in global food and energy prices. The divergent holders of Pakistan’s debt suggest that debt will likely become a contentious issue in the future. In the short term, continuing clashes with the Taliban insurgents over the Durand Line and the sovereignty dispute between Pakistan and India could lead to further political turmoil in the region. About the author: Jacob Dickinson Jacob studies Global Political Economy at Leiden University. He is passionate about international development and is looking to expand his expertise in geopolitics and crisis management. Curious about other cultures, he has travelled in Europe and Asia for both academic study and professional purposes. His expertise includes subjects like the geopolitics of energy, China’s international political economy, and the implications of globalized supply chains for industrial policy. He is particularly interested in the evolving political and economic relationships between China and ASEAN, and the consequences for regional development and security.

Dyami will be attending the European Business Aviation Convention & Expo, EBACE 2022 held in Geneva. We will showcase our Risk Assessment services for the aviation industry. The actual flight is where everything comes together. Your security policies, procedures and insights. But threats along the flight route, destination and possible enroute alternates change every day. We make on-demand security risk & threat assessments for any location in the world. Is it safe for your crew to operate the planned route? What is the actual situation regarding (geo)political factors, crime, corruption, espionage, terrorism or health risks? Our extensive reports are easily understandable to allow you to anticipate properly and make better critical decisions. Learn more about Dyami and our route and destination risk assessments by visiting our booth W54. Meet the team present in Geneva: Eric Schouten | Annick Dingemans | Tom Franke Schedule a meeting through email (info@dyami.services) or WhatsApp (+31621185339). Or use our contact form. Looking forward to meeting you live! Booth: W54 23-25 May 2022, PALEXPO, Geneva. EBACE official site ​

Written by Annette Bross As the Arctic ice increasingly melts, the region is emerging as a new frontier for fishing, natural resource exploration, and trade routes. The Arctic contains many rare minerals and is regarded to be a favorable site for oil and gas mines, making it of strategic and economic importance to the countries claiming its territories. Up until recently, its remote location has always been the main issue of Arctic exploration, due to its high costs and impracticality. However, due to climate change-related ice melting, it is becoming more accessible. As a result of this chain of events, some of the world’s powers brought their attention to this desolate region, laying the seeds for potential future tensions. How Arctic sovereignty is regulated On a map, the Arctic Region is claimed by eight countries: Canada, Denmark (through Greenland), Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, the United States of America, and Russia. These nations are all members of the Arctic Council, an international body founded in 1996 to address concerns in the Arctic. While the Council does not address military security directly, its working groups meet several times a year to examine development, exploration, shipping, search and rescue, Indigenous rights, resource extraction, and environmental impact assessments around the region; besides upholding peace. Such concerns are addressed through the creation of rules and regulations, as the several delegations joining the Council have competing interests; especially as economic development becomes more vital given recent world developments. The designation and division of continental shelves, the continent parts that are submerged under shallow water, is one of the most crucial tasks of the Council. In fact, each country’s capacity to explore and utilize the Arctic’s natural riches and its dominance over trade routes depends on the legitimacy of its claims over the continental shelves. However, continental shelves have not yet been fully mapped. Countries maintain the exclusive rights to conduct economically generating activities such as fishing or drilling in their Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), which is 370 kilometers or 200 nautical miles off the coast. However, the space between two or more frontiers is considered “up for grabs” by whoever can establish ownership. Hence, countries are increasingly investing in research to prove the extent of their continental shelves. If a country can demonstrate that its claims to a continental shelf are legitimate, by international law it receives exclusive rights to the minerals found on the shelf’s seabed. Only Norway and Iceland have applied and received approval for their request for continental shelf space. Russia has an outstanding claim over the North Pole that however overlaps with Greenland’s. The North Pole is the heart of the Arctic Circle, and whoever controls it has a strategic advantage over the remainder due to its geographic location. Why it matters There are economic, military, and strategic reasons why the melting arctic represents an opportunity for states. In terms of trade, passing through the Arctic by sea reduces the time it takes to import and export goods between Asian and Western markets by several weeks. Journeys could be cut in half if the ice caps melt sufficiently for cargo ships to pass. Geopolitically, as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Sweden and Finland are considering joining NATO and this threatens Russia’s dominance over the far north. Since the prospect of NATO membership expansion was a significant motive for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the first place, this might become a long-lasting point of tension between Arctic states. What is Russia’s role? As the arctic ice melts further, one of the council members has shown a greater interest in defending the territory. For the past 15 years, Russia has been boosting its military and commercial operations in the region, which led the US and other NATO members to see Russia’s actions as a possible threat. Russia accounts for half of the Arctic landmass, as it owns 53% of the Arctic Circle’s coastline where about 2 million people reside (representing 50% of the region’s population). Russian presence in the region reinforces the country’s claim to the Arctic territories. Adding to the tension, Russia was selected to preside over the council between 2021 and 2023. In the wake of the Russian attack on Ukraine, the seven other Council members condemned President Putin’s actions in a joint statement where they decided to suspend the cooperation. The Council may continue its work, but not until the summer of 2023, when the rotating chair passes from the Russian Federation to Norway. If sanctions continue, though, they may prevent Russian participation in the Council at all or impede meetings on Russian soil. In the Arctic, Russia has also made efforts to boost its ‘soft power.’ An example of this is the town of Barentsburg. Although situated on the Norwegian island of Svalbard, the settlement is almost entirely made up of ethnic Russians and Ukrainians. There are no military bases allowed there, but Russia is investing heavily in tourism, from bars to a museum that tells the story of Russian presence in the Arctic. The investments aim at sharing Russian cultural heritage with the people living in the town and ultimately strengthen their identity. In the future, this can lead to Russia using the same ‘cultural legacy’ rhetoric used in Ukraine to justify military action, and in general, harvest political support. Conflict and the environment As a result of climate change, socio-economic activity in the region is increasing. These activities, particularly fossil fuel exploitation and mineral extraction, are accelerating the Arctic's transformation. All of this new activity in a once icy and barren area of the earth could create additional turmoil. A frozen ocean that melts more and more each year provides growth opportunities for states, and this implies that having a presence in the Arctic means having a presence in a new ocean. In the high north, diplomacy is more important than ever if the world wants to avoid conflict. Despite a resurgence of significant military interest in the region, the international community still believes in “Arctic exceptionalism,” which recognizes it as a pacific area and a space for dialogue. The impending Arctic concerns will not only play a vital role in international relations, but they will also redefine states’ borders and sovereignty in the world. Although the world's attention is diverted from the Arctic by the escalating war in Ukraine, the need for regional cooperation is more than ever, as the consequences reach beyond those related to climate change and permafrost studies. About the Author: Annette Bross Annette holds a bachelor's degree in History from Universidad Iberoamericana in Mexico City. She has now moved to the Netherlands to pursue a master’s at Leiden University in International Relations and Diplomacy. She is passionate about development, climate action, public policy, and security challenges with a strong commitment to social justice. She has experience in researching topics like the influence of soft power in Latin America and the Middle East. The article was edited by Alessia Cappelletti and Ruben Pfeijffer.

Written by Sietske Moshuldayev Various conflicts have intensified this past month, while others have abated following a period of escalation. Based on global news monitoring and intelligence gathering, this report includes ten different conflicts that have been dynamic and prominent these past few weeks. These include the Russia-Ukraine crisis, a surge in attacks between Israel and Palestine, a worsening political and economic crisis in Sri Lanka and enlarged political instability in Tunisia and Pakistan. These are complemented below by several brief alerts: deadly attacks in Burkina Faso, a state of emergency in El Salvador, enhanced migration concerns along the US-Mexican border, continued junta-led violence in Myanmar and apparent peace talks concerning the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. It is likely that further implications of these conflicts will build up in the upcoming weeks and thus call for continued monitoring. 1. World Conflicts - March 2022 a. The Ongoing Russia-Ukraine Crisis Ukrainian forces continue to resist and oppose Russian attacks, with the latter decreasing the geographical scope of its main offensive. Facing economic sanctions, Russia has set new military objectives, focusing on the Donbas region. As the Russian troops retreat, reports indicate mass killings of Ukrainian civilians - such as in Bucha - which Western states recognized as war crimes and Russia denies. Meanwhile, Western actors continue to support Ukraine through monetary and military supplies, reinforced by US President Joe Biden’s trip to Europe and President of the European Union Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to Kyiv. At the same time, the number of refugees fleeing Ukraine stands at more than 4.6 million as of April 12th, with reports indicating that some are returning to their hometowns in Ukraine. Implications of the war continue to be felt across the world, in part through grain shortages threatening the food security in various low- and middle-income countries. b. Israel-Palestine: Surge in Attacks Tensions between Israel and Palestine continue to escalate as both sides saw several deadly attacks in recent weeks. Terror attacks killing Israeli citizens were responded to by reinforced Israeli military activity in the West Bank in an attempt to capture the assailants and their relatives. This led to the deaths of both Palestine-based militants and civilians. Whereas the Islamic State has claimed responsibility for certain attacks and Hamas praised the actions, the Palestinian National Authority condemned the violence. Analysts relate the series of attacks to the start of Ramadan, remembering the 11-day crisis that occurred in May 2021. At the same time, however, these events come amidst Israel hosting an international conference on the Iran nuclear deal on March 28th with the United States, Egypt, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Morocco present. This signifies an important step forward for Israel as it seeks to normalize its relations with several Arab League countries, a move contested by other League members and Palestine actors. c. Sri Lanka’s Economic and Political Crisis Amidst a severe economic crisis, Sri Lanka faces violent protests by disgruntled citizens targeting the country’s leadership. With Sri Lanka enduring high inflation, low foreign currency reserves and defaulted external debts, its citizens endure a lack of basic goods and services. Queuing lines have led to several deaths and energy shortages hold. The government originally responded with a curfew and a state of emergency but soon revoked these following growing discontent. The country’s cabinet has resigned, with the exception of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his brother, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. They blame the economic crisis on external factors, including COVID-19 impacts on the country’s tourism sector, yet analysts indicate that poor economic planning also played a role. Talks with the International Monetary Fund, India, China and other potential credit providers continue as threats to the security of Sri Lanka’s citizens increase. Rising global fuel prices further enhance the severity of the crisis, which also sees its repercussions in other areas of the world, especially states in Africa and the Middle East. d. Tunisia: Presidential Power Grab Tunisian President Kais Saied increased his grasp on power as he dissolved parliament on March 30th, a move met by public protests just a few days later. This move directly follows the first (online) meeting since the parliaments’ suspension in July 2021. During the session, members of parliament denounced earlier decrees enacted by President Saied, including his enhanced executive control over judiciary powers since February 2022. In an attempt to re-configure the country’s constitution, Saied plans to hold a referendum on a new constitution next July and hold parliamentary elections in December. In the meantime, opposition parties have indicated that they will boycott the referendum and have called for elections to be held prior to the establishment of a new constitution. With increased potential for the political situation to destabilize, the country also faces deteriorating economic conditions, meaning public unrest may grow in upcoming weeks. e. Political Turmoil in Pakistan Following a vote of no confidence for former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan by parliament, Shehbaz Sharif has been selected as the new Prime Minister on April 11th. This development came after weeks of political uncertainty in the country, starting with indications of opposition parties initiating the vote based on claims that Khan has mismanaged the economy and foreign policy. Several of Khan’s coalition partners subsequently walked away, disbanding his parliamentary majority. Khan opposed the vote, postponed parliamentary sessions, attempted to instigate legal measures to stall the opposition and called for early elections. These actions did not prevent the current outcome, with the parliament able to either legally continue to rule until the next general elections in 2023 or call elections soon. Facing ongoing protests, a worsening economic crisis and some new policy indications, it remains to be seen what alterations occur in the country’s political and economic stability. 2. Brief Alerts - March 2022 a. Burkina Faso: Increased Militancy Following a military coup in January of this year, Burkina Faso’s military leadership has now stated it will continue to stay in power until security has been restored in the country. Earlier reports indicated they were looking at a three-year transition. As insurgent attacks related to Islamic State and Al-Qaeda groups continue to occur in the country, the supposed political transition remains uncertain. b. State of Emergency in El Salvador El Salvadors’ President Nayib Bukele declared a 30-day state of emergency on March 27th following a spike in gang-based violence, with 67 deaths in just one day. The measure is implemented along with new regulations to restrict gang mobilization and communication, but also has implications for human rights in the country. c. Mexico-US Border Concerns Humanitarian tensions may arise along the US-Mexico border, as President Biden’s administration imposed new regulations this month to expedite the asylum process for immigrants. This comes amidst an expected surge of refugees from Central and South American states. d. Nagorno-Karabakh Peace Negotiations High-level diplomatic talks between Armenia, Azerbaijan and the European Union this month indicate potential progress on the Nagorno-Karabakh territorial disputes. While this announcement followed discord between Russia and Azerbaijan over the 2020 ceasefire agreements just days before, it remains to be seen what impact this new direction will have. Conclusion Far from covering all ongoing conflicts around the world, this report highlights ten conflicts that experienced a building up of tension this past month. As European states continue to predominantly be engulfed in the Russia-Ukraine crisis, various states elsewhere face intensifying domestic instability - if not enhanced international threats and insecurity. Most conflicts indicate that more serious periods of upcoming turmoil may occur soon, yet some suggest the opposite. As all conflicts mentioned in this report carry both short and long term implications, they call for continued attention in the upcoming weeks. About the author: Sietske Moshuldayev Sietske Moshuldayev has an international background and is inherently intrigued by the causes and consequences of geopolitical events. She has completed two bachelors at the University of Leiden (International Studies, BA & Political Science, BSc) and currently pursues a masters in International Security at Sciences Po, Paris. Having specialized in East Asian affairs for her undergraduate studies, she now focuses on global risks and risk management. The article was edited by Ruben Pfeijffer

As of April 19th 2022, socio-political unrest is escalating in Sri Lanka. Police have used violent force against protesters in the town of Rambukkana, with at least one person dead as of the writing of this Early Warning. Protests are occurring in the capital city of Colombo, with similar scenes emerging elsewhere across the island. The direct cause for these gatherings is growing discontent with government incompetence and worsening socio-economic conditions, the latter of which are anchored on soaring fuel prices, and scarce food and medical supplies. Various factors such as the global Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have affected the Sri Lankan economy’s ability to gather foreign currency and import commodities such as grain and oil [including its derivatives]. In turn, this has worsened the damage caused by the poor taxation policies of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s administration, which as of the 12th of April 2022 has frozen repayments on Sri Lanka’s outstanding 51 billion USD in foreign debt. Despite earlier resignations of top government officials, protestors continue to demand the resignation of President Rajapaksa and his remaining political allies, some of which are his family members. While protests in past weeks have been relatively peaceful, due to regular power outages in excess of ten hours around the country and many of Sri Lanka’s poorer communities have been without access to basic food necessities for weeks, agitation levels seem to be climbing. While foreigners are not a direct target of these protests, it is still advisable for all visitors and residents of a foreign country to stay clear of any hot spot for civil gatherings. Additionally, it is advised to carry documentation on one's person in the event police checkpoints are set up in the coming hours, days, and even weeks. On that same note, it is important to follow any new rules implemented by the local authorities, such as curfews. Depending on how quickly this situation escalates, it may be harder to enter/leave Sri Lanka in the short term. If in doubt, contact your embassy/consulate for the latest advice. More information, in need of tailor-made reports or questions? Feel free to contact us.

Over the past years, Dyami has been building to become one of the major Dutch players in the field of Security Risk & Intelligence Management. Supporting companies by protecting their people and assets all over the world. To deliver on that mission we attract experts that have the same passion and drive in trying to make this world a safer place. With pride, We can announce that Mohammad Al-Weshahi will join Dyami | strategic security services as Intelligence Consultant. (text continues below image) Eric Schouten (CEO Dyami) and Intelligence Expert Mohammad Al-Weshahi Mr. Al-Weshahi is a counter-terrorism expert, in the business of actionable #intelligence collection aimed at disrupting terrorist activities. He has 26 years of experience working as a counter-terrorism operations officer at the Central Intelligence Agency. He has accumulated liaising experience with more than 55 countries, and he has successfully helped build over 40 counter-terrorism operations projects around the world. Mr. Al-Weshahi's main drive is to help inoculate future generations against Islamic extremism and thereby ensuring the safety of individuals and communities. As of 2022, Mr. Al-Weshahi started his own consultancy in the Netherlands that offers tradecraft and intelligence training and provides consultancy services in both fields. He joined Team Dyami in April 2022. Besides supporting our analyst team in creating Intelligence reports (i.e. the aviation sector), Al-Weshahi will also work with our training department and our partner Pro-Intell Security & Intelligence in offering an array of training programs. Educating business travellers to work safe and secure all over the globe. Interested? Don't hesitate to contact us now.

Today (01 April 2022) we released our latest Situational Report for Western and Central Asia. The next scheduled update is 9 P.M. UTC, 11 April 2022. Additional updates will be made as to the situation warrants, with more frequent updates at higher alert levels. Our West and Central Asia Situational Report covers the following countries; #Turkey, #Syria, #Iraq, #Iran, #Kuwait, #SaudiArabia, #Qatar, #Bahrain, #Oman, #UAE, #Afghanistan, #Caucasus, #Pakistan , #Kyrgyzstan, #Uzbekistan, #Yemen#egypt As usual, a closer look at the effect of the conflict in #Ukraine on #Aviation. Other sectors might also benefit from the information provided. Please feel free to download, use and share this SitRep. (mobile browser versions do not always show download) 01/04/2022 Western and Central Asia Sitrep Version 1.3 PDF 08/03/2022 Western and Central Asia Sitrep Version 1.2 PDF 08/03/2022 Western and Central Asia Sitrep Version 1.1 PDF 02/03/2022 Western and Central Asia Sitrep Version 1.0 PDF

Sitrep in response to the recent missile attack on Erbil, Iraq Incumbent of Iraq, Iran, and Israel. Version 1.1 (16-03-2022): - Updated the Current situation - Introduced a brief history of Israeli-Iranian military actions - Updated the Conclusion Current situation On Saturday 12/03/2022 Iran fired up to a dozen missiles near the city of Erbil, which is the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. Early reports speculated that the intended targets were the newly built United States Consulate in the city, US forces stationed at Erbil International Airport [ORER], and/or the United States Special Operations airbase adjacent to the town of Harir, North-West of Erbil. However, the Iranian government claimed that the intended target was an Israeli Mossad (Israeli Intelligence Services) base. Iran has also claimed these strikes to be retaliatory, as they have claimed that in recent months Israel has carried out multiple attacks against their military infrastructure. Of these, the most recent one occurred on 09/03/2022, when Israel killed two Iranian Quds (Iranian Republican Guard) officers in Syria via airstrike. Read more in PDF>> 16-03-2022 Sitrep Erbil v.1.1 (download as PDF) 13-03-2022 Sitrep Erbil v.1.0 (download as PDF)

Written by Sytske Post It has been two years since the COVID-19 pandemic triggered supply chain turmoil around the world. Restricted access to markets and labor posed significant challenges for the global economy. Currently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has yet again put the world's supply chains to the test. Agricultural commodities are among the chains feeling the most ripple effect of the war as Russia and Ukraine are two of the biggest wheat suppliers, producing about a quarter of the world's exports. The current conflict has, therefore, heavily disrupted the global wheat market. The effects of this disruption will most severely be felt by countries in the Middle East and North Africa, who are highly dependent on wheat supplies from both Russia and Ukraine. These new developments are a cause for security concern, as certain countries in this region are already in dire economic, political, and social conditions. Increases in food prices and food shortages are thus likely to exacerbate humanitarian conditions in the region. Disruptions in agricultural supply chains Food insecurity is a growing challenge for countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Conflicts and protracted crises are amongst the main drivers behind the increased food insecurity. Today, the situation is additionally exacerbated by disruptions in supply chains. The MENA region, in particular, is the world's largest cereal importer. As a result of this dependency, the region is extremely vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. This import dependency is often linked to environmental constraints and growing populations, and the growth of urban areas. But also influxes of migration movements, both internal and across countries, resulting from instability and conflict put strains on local food systems. However, weather instability and climate change, which are linked to rising temperatures and more severe and frequent extreme weather events, as well as changing agro-ecological conditions, are thought to be the most detrimental to agricultural production in the region. The most prominent effect of climate change in the MENA region is ​​water scarcity, with experts routinely describing the region as "the world's most water-stressed." Lower rainfall and higher temperatures are expected to shorten growing periods, diminish crop yields and productivity, and negatively affect animal output through changes in the length of the grazing season and less drinking water. Climate change-induced warmer and drier climates are, therefore, expected to have a significant impact on agricultural patterns and, by extension, food security. These unfavorable conditions are among the reasons this region is dependent on food imports. However, also major producers of wheat supplies are affected by these weather conditions. Worldwide stockpiles plummeted in the fourth quarter of 2021, as a result of crop damage caused by droughts, frost, and heavy rain in the United States, Canada, Russia, Ukraine, and the remainder of the Black Sea region. A report by the World Food Programme stated that "2021 was the third-costliest year on record for climate-related disasters. More frequent droughts, floods, and storms were reported across the globe leading to widespread food insecurity". These external disruptions are one of the factors driving the rise in wheat prices, which had already increased by 49% above their 2017-2021 average. The COVID-19 outbreak was also linked to initial increases in prices. Multiple national lockdowns resulted in the delay and disruption of global supply chains, as the pandemic restricted access to transportation, markets, and labor. Other factors included decreased food demand, as well as panic buying at the start of the pandemic. The MENA region was heavily impacted by these disruptions, due to the region's high dependency on food imports. Climate change and COVID-19 related disruptions had already placed the MENA region in a vulnerable state. Today, they are faced with yet another additional challenge: the war in Ukraine. Wheat shortages’ impact on the MENA region The war in Ukraine is currently the biggest threat to the global wheat supply. Russia is the top global exporter of wheat and Ukraine is amongst the top five in the world. The war has halted its production, and the impact on wheat prices is already significant. Since the invasion of Ukraine, wheat prices rose by another 62%. The total of their production accounts for about a quarter of the world's exported wheat. The disruption and delay in their agricultural exports exacerbate food insecurity in regions highly dependent on their supplies. These disruptions in the supply chain will most acutely be felt in the MENA region, where countries strongly rely on Ukrainian and Russian wheat supplies. Military action in the Black Sea has caused a standstill in export transportation from both Ukraine and Russia to the MENA region. Ukraine also announced, on March 9, 2022, that it will stop grain and other food exports to avoid a domestic humanitarian crisis. In addition to these disruptions, other challenges are still prevalent. Farmers are fleeing the violence, and the conflict is damaging infrastructure and equipment. Therefore, the disruptions are likely to endure. The fighting can also have a negative impact on the upcoming harvest, especially if it persists until April, when the planting season begins. Russia has some of its wheat and other commodities moving by land, however, the complexity of navigating sanctions and financial measures has still hindered its trade. For example, in reaction to these economic sanctions, Russia's trade and industry Minister suggested a halt in fertilizer exports on March 4. The supply of wheat in the MENA region was already in dire condition due to the effects of climate change (e.g. water scarcity, droughts) and fragile political and economic conditions (e.g regional conflict, COVID-19). The war in Ukraine adds fuel to the already existing food insecurity in the region. The last time the price was this high was during a global food crisis in 2008, which prompted political upheaval around the world. Therefore, these circumstances can enhance the possibility of social unrest erupting in a region already facing numerous grievances. Egypt One of the countries most affected by the disrupted wheat supply chain is Egypt, which imports over 80% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine. The current conflict, therefore, has thrown Egypt's administration into disarray, as concerns grow about whether the national food rationing system can be maintained. More than 88% of the population is registered with this system. To maintain a constant supply of bread for them the government has to gather roughly 10 million tonnes of wheat. The government already issued a three-month embargo on the export of wheat, flour, and other staples on March 10. There are currently 4 million tonnes of wheat reserves, but the government will need to come up with another 6 million tonnes to ensure that the food rationing system continues. To do so, the government intends to purchase the remaining wheat from local farmers, setting incentives and regulations in place. Furthermore, the government intends to provide fertilizer subsidies to encourage domestic wheat producers to sell their crops to the state. These strategic measures, as claimed by the government, will generate enough reserves to supply the population until the end of 2022. However, even if the regime is able to generate the needed wheat supplies for its population, the capacity needed to store these amounts is limited and can cause a massive loss of crop. Additionally, water scarcity and unfavorable weather conditions still pose a challenge to self-sufficiency. Water scarcity concerns have recently been exacerbated by the operation of the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam. These effects are already being felt, with drastic spikes in the price of unsubsidized bread, which jumped by as much as 25%. This forces the government to set fixed prices for unsubsidized bread. The Egyptian government has also had a discussion on raising the prices for subsidized bread. These adjustments could have a huge impact on the economic and social stability of the country, as the subsidized bread programme is at the core of Egypt's social protection system. This topic has been highly sensitive since the 1977 bread riots, caused by the announcement of former president Anwar Sada to lift subsidies on flour, rice, and cooking oil. Successive regimes have been wary of increasing the price of bread for the fear of creating social unrest. Food insecurity in combination with other contributing factors also triggered protests in 2008, 2011, and 2017. Lebanon Lebanon is likewise concerned about the humanitarian effects of rising food prices in the country. Ukraine and Russia account for up to 75% of Lebanon's wheat imports. Local and regional socio-economic and political dynamics resulted in the collapse of the financial and banking sectors in the country. The current war in Ukraine is likely to exacerbate Lebanon's economic issues, which have already pushed roughly three-quarters of the people into poverty. Certain measures have been taken to regulate these shortages. On March 5, Lebanon's industry minister tweeted that the country will begin limiting wheat, allowing it to be used just for bread production until alternative supplies could be secured. Also, on March 14, the government began transferring funds to 150,000 extremely poor households as part of the Emergency Social Safety Net. However, the government currently possesses only one month's worth of wheat reserves, and there is, therefore, a dire need to secure alternatives through other suppliers. Tunisia Tunisia relies on Ukraine and Russia for about 45% of its wheat supply, and the recent developments in Ukraine have sent wheat prices to a 14-year high. The country's economy is already in a fragile state, battered by inflation and rising unemployment, as well as a considerable amount of public debt. These increased prices can exacerbate the humanitarian conditions in the country. The government has remained rather silent on the shortages, albeit the evidence is apparent. Reports indicate that the Tunisian government has already been unable to pay for inbound wheat shipments, and that grain items such as pasta and couscous, which make up a large part of the Tunisian diet, have been in limited supply. Recent protests against President Kais Saied, who is accused of monopolizing power, have placed the country in a deepening political turmoil. The increase in wheat prices and shortages are likely to add fuel to the brewing storm. The security threats of food uncertainty in the MENA region With the ongoing war in Ukraine affecting wheat supplies, the delays, shortages, and insecure prospects of summer harvests, countries in the MENA region are on high alert. These countries are extremely dependent on the wheat supplies coming from both Ukraine and Russia, and the recent spikes in prices as well as supply shortages are likely to exacerbate already existing humanitarian conditions and famine in the region. Governments have already taken certain measures to minimize the impact. However, water scarcity, unfavorable climate conditions, shortage in storage, and political turmoil are providing great challenges for these countries to secure the needed wheat supply for their populations. Furthermore, the food shortage and price increase can potentially cause social unrest in the region. Whereas food insecurity does not directly lead to social unrest, when combined with other grievances, sudden spikes in food prices can be used to mobilize and bring people together for effective political movements. In the past, rising bread prices have been catalysts for political change in the MENA region, such as the 1977 Egyptian bread riots, but also similar movements in 2008 and 2011. Social uprisings are complex phenomena and can't be linked to one specific factor or circumstance. However, with current political dissent (e.g. anti-Saied protests in Tunisia), high unemployment, and inflation already prevalent in the region, the inaccessibility of food can aid in the mobilization of people and promote social instability. About the author: Sytske Post Sytske is a graduate of International Studies and is currently enrolled in the Master's degree in Conflict Studies and Human Rights at Utrecht University. This educational background has provided her with an interdisciplinary understanding of violent conflict and security. Currently, she is particularly interested in the intersection of technology and conflict, ranging from digital disinformation to the shifting nature of warfare powered by artificial intelligence. The article was written with help from Jacob Dickinson and edited by Ruben Pfeijffer and Alessia Cappelletti.

Utrecht, 2022-03-25 Dyami | strategic security solutions - reisvoorbereid.nl announced today that European Pilot Selection & Training (EPST) has added the security firm as their safe & secure travel solutions provider. This partnership will make safety & security - once again - a top priority to the EPST employees and cadet pilots working all over the world. (text continues below image) Eric Duijkers and Eric Schouten at EPST Headquarters in Utrecht. The evolving impacts of international instability, the war in Ukraine and other regions in the world brought dramatic changes to the world of travel and put business travellers at an increased risk of harm. There are more risks to business travellers than meet the eye, putting organizations in a more difficult position when it comes to ensuring duty of care. Eric Duijkers, CEO for EPST: "EPST understands that they are morally or legally obligated to fulfil a duty of care to their employees and pilot cadets regardless of location." Eric Schouten, CEO for Dyami: "This duty of care requires them to make decisions that benefit the company while preserving the health, safety, security and wellbeing of employees and students – in office or while travelling." Dyami will provide #EPST with risk alerts and information across the globe, combined with access to 24/7 security support. Next to that, Dyami will design and implement secure travel policy/procedures and if required; provide emergency response and local evacuation. Both companies are based in Utrecht, The Netherlands. For additional information, visit: https://www.dyami.services/safe-and-secure-travel (EN) https://www.reisvoorbereid.nl (Dutch) https://www.epst.nl or contact Eric Schouten

As of the 24th of February 2022, Russian troops have been conducting offensive military operations within Ukrainian sovereign territory. Non-stop attacks and counter-attacks have impacted multiple cities, infrastructure, and military bases within Ukraine. These recent geopolitical developments have severely alarmed the states immediately neighbouring Ukraine’s western border. For the NATO member states of #Hungary, #Poland, #Romania, and #Slovakia, military support is being routed to their eastern borders as a deterrent for future escalations. In a similar fashion, #Serbia and #Moldova have also put their militaries on high alert for possible overt/covert Russian aggression. This will have an effect on the countries surrounding Ukraine. That is why we publish this Situational Report for the Greater Balkan Area. We consider that due to the continued confrontations between Russian and Ukrainian forces, all flights crossing through Balkan airspace remain at risk. Please read and share our Sitrep below. (mobile browser versions do not always show download) 25/03/2022 Greater Balkan Sitrep Version 1.5 PDF 16/03/2022 Greater Balkan Sitrep Version 1.4 PDF 05/03/2022 Greater Balkan Sitrep Version 1.3 PDF 01/03/2022 Greater Balkan Sitrep Version 1.2 PDF 27/02/2022 Greater Balkan Sitrep Version 1.1 PDF 24/02/2022 Greater Balkan Sitrep Version 1.0 PDF