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Date: September 2022 Location: Armenian/Azerbaijani Airspace Parties involved: Republic of Armenia; Republic of Azerbaijan; Nagorno-Karabakh region (in light-yellow in the image); Russian Federation. The Event: On 12/09/2022 there were renewed border clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia around and beyond the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) region, resulting in the deadliest flare-up of hostilities since peace was signed in 2020. The waypoints along the border between the two countries (VETEN, PEMAN, ELSIV, MATAL) were temporarily closed on 13/09 and reopened the next day after a ceasefire was brokered. At the time of writing, only Canada issued airspace warning for both Armenia and Azerbaijan (NOTAM CZUL H3173/22 issued on 15/09 valid until 15/12). Canada advised caution due to potential risks from anti-aviation weaponry and military operations. During the conflict in 2020, a large section of the airspace was closed down among threats of long-range missiles present in the two countries. Germany and France issued airspace warnings of potential risks to aviation from military operations including anti-aviation weaponry. Warnings were withdrawn after the peace deal was signed. Analysis and implications for aviation: Tensions between Armenia-Azerbaijan have been ongoing since the late 1980s. Violations of the ceasefire agreement(s) in the Nagorno-Karabakh area are common, but they do not always escalate. However, as the security situation can change very rapidly, continuous monitoring is necessary. If the violations of the ceasefire are small-scale and remain confined to the NK region, flying to the capitals of Armenia and Azerbaijan is considered safe, avoiding Nagorno-Karabakh. However, one should consider factors such as the type of aircraft, country of registration, and motive of the flight. Avoid Armenian and Azerbaijani airspace if a full-scale conflict re-ignites. About Dyami Aviation Services Our experts have extensive aviation security and intelligence experience at the highest international level; for airlines and corporate jet operators alike. Our services are broad: from AOC application support, security policy design, threat assessments, to crew training. Our security risk & threat assessments focus on overflight risk during flight operations. They contain actionable intelligence to ensure a safe and secure operation. Is it safe for your crew to operate the planned route? What is the actual situation regarding (geo)political factors, crime, corruption, espionage, terrorism or health risks? Our extensive reports are easily understandable to allow you to anticipate properly and make better critical decisions. About Flight Level 470 Flight Level 470 is a growing network with VIP Cabin Crew, Dassault Falcon, Bombardier Global, Gulfstream Captains, First Officers, Instructors, Examiners, Test Pilots, Flight Operational Managers. Our main goal is to have Air Crew only recommended by other FL470 users. We are building a trust-worthy and respectable air crew network, which is now well known in the Aviation Sphere. We can provide the best solution, with the shortest notice, in crewing, consulting and selling. >> www.flightlevel470.com

In cooperation with PMO Security Risk Management, Dyami is offering a 4-day Hostile Environment Awareness Training (HEAT) in the Netherlands, on 1-4 November. The vision of Dyami and PMO Security Risk Management is that security for organizations and companies should be accessible, relevant, and a priority. We believe the world is safer when we share our knowledge – that is why we are collaborating on a 4-day HEAT, bringing some new elements to the training. Dyami experts formulated a well-structured training module on understanding the world of intelligence and espionage, equally critical for all humanitarian missions, that will be presented within the 4-days training. About the training Where: Arnhem (exact location tba) When: 1-4 of November Cost: €1800 pp. (Full board and accommodation included) Content of the course: First Aid for Severe Trauma (FAST) Contextual and Cultural Awareness Armed conflict and Terrorism - Armed attacks, attack by air, small arms fire, shelling, concealment and protection, myths and facts about chemical warfare Civil Unrest International Humanitarian Law and the Humanitarian Principles - Dealing with combatants, visibility, distinction, and compliance Residence Safety Driving & Transport Safety Driving in a Hostile Environment - Checkpoints, ambush, road travel planning, movement procedures Dealing with Armed State and Non-State Actors Travel & Personal Planning Coping with Capture - Arrest, detention, kidnap hostage-taking Communication and Negotiation Mines & Explosives (UXO) Safeguarding Stress Management Fire Safety Understanding Intelligence & Espionage Contacts and official leaflet PMO Security Risk Management - info@pmoexcellence.org Dyami Strategic Security Solutions - Info@dyami.services

Date: Over the last few weeks Where: Damascus, Syria; Ankara, Turkey. Who’s involved: Syrian government, Turkish government, Russian government; Turkey-backed Syrian rebel/opposition forces. What happened? As Russia is pulling out of Syria, Moscow hopes to normalize Turkish-Syrian relations to secure its position in the country and stabilize the region. Over the last couple of weeks, talks with high Turkish (intelligence) officials, including the Undersecretary of the National Intelligence Organization, have laid the groundwork for higher political talks. At a summit in Uzbekistan, Erdogan expressed his wish to meet Assad to talk about the issue. However, Assad could not attend the summit. Since 2015, Russia and Iran have been backing the Syrian government, while Turkey aided the rebel forces opposing Assad. Now, Turkey wants to include rebel forces in the talks, which may hamper Russia’s efforts to bring the two leaders together. With the Russian withdrawal, Iranian militias have been setting up new training camps, headquarters, and warehouses with help of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Sources claim that these training camps are also being used to train Lebanese Hezbollah fighters. Neither Russia nor Turkey wants Iranian influence in Syria. On the weekend of 17-18 September 2022, Turkish forces executed several airstrikes against Assad’s forces and Syrian Democratic Forces (formerly US-backed). These strikes resulted in several casualties. To date, Turkey maintains a military presence across its border with Syria and in areas it controls with the Syrian opposition forces. Analysis: A rapprochement between the Syrian and Turkish governments would drastically change the dynamics of the decade-long Syrian civil war. Although talks between Ankara and Damascus could mean a more stable situation in the country, reaching an agreement between the two nations presents many challenges. Turkey helped the rebel forces to maintain their final significant territorial foothold in Syria. Therefore, if Turkey decides to stop supporting the opposition groups, it is likely they will be neutralized by the Syrian government forces. Ankara has already requested the rebels to be included in the talks. If the talks fail and Russia still decides to withdraw from Syria, Iran will likely get a stronger foothold in the country. This may upset the frail stability of the Middle East. If the talks are successful and the relationship between Syria and Turkey improves, it could have grave implications for the Kurdish population in Syria. Kurds make up about 10% of the Syrian population, making them the largest minority in the country. The Syrian government, however, considers the Kurds to be an enemy of the state, as they played a key role during the uprising which started the Syrian civil war. Turkey has a long history of conflict against the Kurdish population, both within its territories and outside. The Turkish government considers the mainly-Kurdish Syrian People’s Defense Unit (YPG) a terrorist group affiliated with the Turkish Kurdish Worker’s Party (PKK). Civilians escaping the civil war are also likely to be affected by the potential talks. Millions of Syrians fled to neighboring Turkey when the war broke out. With Turkish general elections coming up in June 2023 and internal tensions rising, a deal between Ankara and Syria that will decide the fate of millions of refugees is likely, and forced returns cannot be ruled out.

Over the past three months, Kazakhstan showed important developments in domestic politics, foreign affairs, the economy, and aviation. Short-term motivators for these changes are anchored on the political fallout of the January 2022 protests, the easing of domestic Covid-19 measures, and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Long-term motivators span from a social metamorphosis from Soviet Republic to a prosperous society, a will to de-align from Russian spheres of influence, and a regional inclination to become the center of knowledge, research, commerce, and tourism for Central Asia. While the recently implemented policies by Tokayev's government partially enclose these changes, there is a degree of skepticism as to how true to his policies his government will be. This report should serve as a brief and synthesized overview of the current state of affairs within Kazakhstan, especially useful for those who are currently doing business in or thinking about expanding to the country. You can download here the report. If you have additional questions or require more information, please contact us at info@dyami.services.

The Dutch Ministry of Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation recently announced a large economic fund for Dutch entrepreneurs and enterprises to help rebuild Ukraine. While this is a good sign for the Ukrainian Government, at dyami | strategic security services we believe that there are inherent risks that many Dutch companies are not aware of if they choose to invest their time, money, and people into this plan. Feel free to download and read our one-pager of our safety and security concerns for Dutch businesses considering opportunities in Ukraine here below.

The increasing worldwide tensions show that it is important to make your internationally operating organization resilient. Take advantage of our unique meet & greet sessions in Utrecht with, among others, former director of security services at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Ron Geraets and former Central Intelligence Agency Intelligence Officer; Mohammad Alweshahi Interested? Contact us now!

Date: 4th-7th of August 2022 Location: Taiwanese FIR/Airspace Parties involved: Republic of China (ROC), People’s Republic of China, The United States House speaker Nancy Pelosi; US President Joe Biden; [Taiwan] President Tsai Ing-Wen; [People’s Republic of China] President Xi Jinping. The Event: On 31/07/2022 Nancy Pelosi started her Asia diplomatic trip. This trip includes Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore. When her trip was announced in early 2022, it was rumored, but not confirmed, that she would visit Taiwan. Chinese President Xi Jinping held a call with his US counterpart Joe Biden in which he reportedly said “Those who play with fire will perish by it.” Two weeks prior, on 19/07/2022, China had already warned that if the US House speaker was to visit the island, it would take “resolute and forceful measures.” Under the escort of F-15 fighter jets and KC-135 Tanker aircraft, on the evening of 02/08/2022 Ms. Pelosi landed aboard a USAF C-40 VIP passenger plane at Taipei airport, becoming the highest-ranking American official in 25 years to visit the self-ruled island. China announced live-fire military exercises in retaliation. Images on social media revealed a significant PLA movement toward the Fujian province, the closest to Taiwan in mainland China. The exercises were planned to cross Taiwan’s sovereign territorial waters (in blue) and internal waters (in pink). Soon after, Beijing summoned the US ambassador to China in protest of Ms. Pelosi’s visit. Beijing has also announced new trade restrictions, such as banning exports of fruit, fish and sand to Taiwan. On 03/08/2022, China warned airlines to avoid airspace near Taiwan in six areas of airspace designated as ‘danger zones.’ Flights will be restricted from 12 p.m. 04/08, to 12 p.m. 07/08. This is under the guise of ‘snap naval exercises.’ Analysis and implications: It is important to note that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is not the only politician to visit Taiwan over the last 25 years; but she is the highest ranking. However, a factor contributing to this rise in tensions is that she has a history of opposing the Chinese Communist party, such as visiting Tiananmen Square in 1991. Due to the mass mobilization of Chinese [PLA] troops, naval assault assault units, logistical assets, and the Chinese Air Force, these serve as indicators that an assault could be imminent. But a large question remains whether this is just a show of force, or actually a threat. President Xi Jinping is seeking to be confirmed for a third term during the Communist party’s 20th congress planned for this autumn. It is plausible that these moves are part of a strategy to not look weak in the face of the communist party's other candidates. But this poses a dual risk, as if he proves too hard handed, he may be also viewed as reckless. Additionally, on 01/08/2022, the Chinese Military celebrated its founding anniversary. It seems that a show of force against Taiwan would prove beneficial to such festivities. But it remains questionable as to whether a full blown invasion would be the logical next step for the Chinese Communist Party. For the aviation industry this developing situation causes an immediate security concern. The movement of naval ships, fast jets, and anti-aircraft systems by both the ROC and Chinese military during these heightened times of tension could pose an immediate risk to aircraft operating within the region. Unintentional/intentional shoot downs, intercepts, and mid-air collisions have been aggravated by this situation. It is important to understand that this threat is not limited to the designated red boxes [as noted on the previous page], but any area within Taiwan FIR or Shanghai FIR. This is due to the range that surface to air missiles are capable of hitting (100-240km). Concluding notes: Ms. Pelosi's visit to Taiwan took place against the backdrop of increasingly heated warnings from Beijing. Whereas it is unclear to which extent the latter will retaliate, these events will play a key role in the security developments of the Indo-Pacific. Now that Ms. Pelosi’s visit is over, a military standoff between China and Taiwan is likely to start. The planned drills, if they go forward, would directly challenge what Taiwan defines as its territorial waters. It remains to be seen if the island, and the US military, will be sending boats and planes in the designated ‘danger zones.’ Additionally, the visit, whereas a strong symbolic gesture, may damage Washington’s reach to other key allies in the region, which may not welcome the rising tensions, and in Taiwan itself. Lastly, China may retaliate directly on the US with sanctions or export bans. For the aviation industry, the tensions are causing immediate security concerns in any area within Taiwan FIR or Shanghai FIR. For more in-depth Sitreps, analyses, or bespoke advice on the aviation security and safety concerns regarding this region, or other areas across the globe, please contact Dyami at +31 30 207 2120 or through our webpage.

With recent espionage claims coming from the highest positions in the Ukrainian Government, it is a somber reminder that all companies and individuals need to remain vigilant. Read our most recent Early Warning for our analysis of the developing situation:

With the situation deteriorating in Sri Lanka, it is essential not just for airlines and aircraft operators that travel to the mainland to keep up to date with current events but also for those traversing Colombo FIR. Read our early warning for more information:

Written by Sietske Moshuldayev This June 2022 report highlights ten prominent conflicts selected following the close monitoring of news sources and open-source intelligence gathering over the past month. As fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces continued in Ukraine, nuclear testing threats from North Korea intensified and a potential new Turkish military operation in northern Syria sharpened international concerns. Meanwhile, the governments of Tunisia and Ecuador saw increased public protests demanding political and economic change. Militant groups continued to destabilize the Democratic Republic of Congo and Burkina Faso, with government forces increasing their counterattacks. El Salvador’s government prolonged its fight to control drug gangs, while citizens in Sri Lanka and Nepal protested amidst worsening political and economic conditions. It is useful to continue monitoring developments in these counties in the upcoming weeks to remain aware and vigilant of potential escalations and subsequent ripple effects. World Conflicts - June 2022 a. The Russia-Ukraine War As the end of this month marks the 127th day since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24th, most of the fighting now continues in the eastern Donbas region. Some renewed Russian attacks in the north and south continue to occur as well. This month, Ukrainian military was forced to retreat from Severodonetsk, their last major foothold in Luhansk. Other cities, including Kyiv, endured several bombardments. Russia continues to hold on to its objectives as it blames its foreign debt default and the general global food crisis on Western states. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to receive financial and military support as several Western leaders visited Kyiv this month and the EU accepted its bid to join the union. NATO is reinforcing its Eastern and Baltic defenses as Finland’s and Sweden’s accession has been accepted by Turkey. As the ongoing conflict continues to impact millions of Ukrainians, Russians and communities abroad that face worsening fuel and food shortages, this conflict requires continued monitoring. b. North Korean Nuclear Test Threats With North Korea’s nuclear facilities expanding, increased threatening rhetoric and enhanced North Korean defense plans, tension has risen this month with worries of a nuclear weapons test by North Korea. Since 2006, North Korea has tested six nuclear weapons but halted its nuclear program in 2017. Since the beginning of this year, however, it has alarmed other states with increased missile tests. This saw US efforts to toughen UN sanctions in May but the motion was vetoed by Russia and China - noteworthily the first disagreement since the sanction regime on North Korea started in 2006. With the regional security balance on the line, the US has already ramped up its military cooperation with South Korea and Japan in recent weeks to deter North Korea. What the impact of such enhanced regional relations will be - as North Korea perceives this as a growing threat - remains to be seen. c. Tension over a New Turkish Offensive in Syria As new Turkish military operations targeting northern areas of Syria may commence soon, international worries arose this month over a potential re-escalation of conflict in Syria. Turkey aims to establish a 30km safe zone along Turkey’s southern border with Syria where it perceives the Syria Kurdish People’s Protection Unit (YPG) as a serious national security threat. Turkey has long seen the YPG as a terrorist organization and aims to destabilize them. The YPG, however, presents the largest faction of the US-backed Syrian Democracy Forces. The US has pressured Turkey to cancel its plans and Russia, Syria’s traditional ally, has also warned Turkey of unwanted tension. Iran, on the other hand, voiced comprehension of Turkey’s ambitions. With a UN mandate for aid supplies to Syria ending on July 10th and an extension likely to be vetoed by Russia, an escalation will gravely impact Syrian citizens and overall regional stability. It remains to be seen what these pressures will bring. D. Public Unrest over Government Changes in Tunisia Tunisian citizens and opponents of the incumbent president continued protesting moves that strengthen the executive role of President Kais Saied. Along with the sacking of 57 judges at the beginning of the month - which has seen judges on strike ever since - President Saied is drafting a new constitution that strengthens presidential powers and allegedly excludes the mentioning of Islam. The constitution will be subject to a referendum on July 25th and opposition parties have already indicated they will boycott it. These moves come after the suspension of the supreme judicial court and parliament earlier this year along with other actions further consolidating Saied’s position. Many opposition groups and citizens view these alterations as the untangling of the democratic changes implemented following the 2011 turmoil. With protests likely to continue as the referendum date comes closer, in addition to ongoing disputes over economic pressures, this conflict should be monitored in upcoming weeks. E. Deadly Protests in Ecuador Ecuador has seen a series of violent mass protests since June 13th amidst demands for economic policy changes and improved costs of living. Protestors, primarily members of various indigenous groups, have blocked roads and attacked oil fields leading to food supply shortages in cities and reducing the country’s oil output by half. Sources report at least five civilian deaths and one soldier. President Guillermo Lasso entered talks with the protestors following a short state of emergency but these have halted due to the soldier’s unexpected death. In the meantime, right-wing President Lasso passed a vote of impeachment, indicating both government support for and opposition to his handling of the situation thus far. These events present a larger version of less violent protests and talks held last October, where similar demands were made. With both the government and the protestors adhering to their stances and talks halted, it remains to be seen how the situation will evolve next. Brief Alerts - June 2022 a. Intensified Rebel Militancy in The Democratic Republic of Congo Following a resurgence of M23 militant activity in eastern DRC since May, relations between the DRC and Rwanda worsened this month as the former accuses the latter of backing the rebels. Despite Rwanda rejecting this claim, previous invasions of the DRC by Rwanda in the 1990s place extra tension on stability in the region. b. Planned Attacks by Burkina Faso’s Military Forces After several deadly attacks in Burkina Faso this month, the government now plans to actively counter jihadist groups in northern and southeastern regions. It has provided a 14-day ultimatum for citizens to evacuate designated regions but without much guidance. With operations yet to start, it remains to be seen how this will develop. c. Prolonged ‘State of Emergency’ in El Salvador The third renewal of El Salvador’s state of emergency has human rights organizations alarmed about the dire circumstances in which detainees are being captured and held. With over 41,300 people detained thus far, the government is set on eliminating the gangs and allegations of human rights violations are likely to continue. d. Sri Lanka’s Deepening Economic and Political Crisis Prolonged fuel and food shortages continue to spur public protests in Sri Lanka despite the new cabinet attempting to appease the protestors. With fuel now only sold for essential services, further unrest is likely to continue as citizens demand further policy changes and the long-awaited resignation of the president. e. Fuel Price Protests in Nepal A rise in fuel costs caused clashes between citizens and the police in Kathmandu late this month. With Nepal’s economic conditions similar to that of Sri Lanka prior to its full-scale crisis, developments in Nepal may require closer monitoring in the upcoming weeks. Conclusion While the conflict in Ukraine is highly likely to continue in the upcoming weeks, it remains to be seen whether actual escalations - and to what extent - will occur regarding the North Korean and Syrian conflicts. As North Korea pursues its national agenda, it is likely to face international repercussions should it conduct a nuclear weapons test. Turkey frames its new military operation as necessary for its national security, but its international standing is simultaneously impacted daily by other events, such as the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, with a concrete deadline set for a potentially new constitution in Tunisia, it is likely that protests will continue, perhaps even escalate. Ecuador has seen talks between the government and the protestors in the past, which may indicate that this can happen again. As for the brief alerts, more violence can be expected in the cases of the DRC, Burkina Faso and El Salvador, with protests likely to continue in Sri Lanka and Nepal. Needless to say, all these conflicts, in addition to conflicts not covered in this report, will require close monitoring in the upcoming month. About the author: Sietske Moshuldayev Sietske Moshuldayev has an international background and is inherently intrigued by the causes and consequences of geopolitical events. She has completed two bachelors at the University of Leiden (International Studies, BA & Political Science, BSc) and currently pursues a masters in International Security at Sciences Po, Paris. Having specialized in East Asian affairs for her undergraduate studies, she now focuses on global risks and risk management.

Written by Sytske Post A few months ago, a manipulated video of Ukrainian President Zelensky circulated on social media. In the video, Zelensky was telling his soldiers to lay down their arms and surrender the fight against Russia. The message also aired on Ukrainian television after hackers had managed to disseminate the fake message on the website of a news organization. Viewers quickly pointed out that Zelensky's accent was strange, and that his head and voice did not appear realistic upon closer observation, prompting the video to be refuted and withdrawn. This type of video manipulation is also known as a ‘deepfake’. The editing of the video was not particularly sophisticated. However, the evolution of deepfakes is perceived as one of the most worrying technological trends for the future. If these images become more sophisticated, they can lead to intensifying existing conflicts and debates, undermine trust in state-run institutions and legal processes, and manipulate financial markets. It is therefore important to analyze different scenarios where this emerging technology could potentially impact our society. What are Deepfakes? Deepfakes - a term that first emerged in 2017 - are a new type of audiovisual manipulation that allows users to create lifelike simulations of another person's face, voice, or action, or even create realistic looking people who never existed. This technology is categorized as synthetic media, referring to content created or modified with the use of artificial intelligence (AI). It applies the capabilities of deep learning, which is a kind of machine learning where a computer analyzes datasets to learn (through the analysis of patterns) what a result has to look like. In addition, these technologies also often use generative adversarial networks (GAN). Here, a person starts by gathering photographs or source a video of the person or object they wish to imitate. The fake is created by a GAN employing two networks. The first network creates believable re-creations of the original images, while the second network looks for forgeries. This detection information is passed back to the forgery network, allowing it to improve and generate a better fake version of the source, such as the face of the person you're impersonating. In both instances, the technologies used require datasets to learn or create the image. The larger the datasets the easier to create a sophisticated (audio)visual image. In today's society such datasets are freely available on the internet. This creates an environment where these deepfakes are easier to create, and are less time-consuming for the creator, thereby increasing the likelihood of deepfakes emerging more frequently in the future. The possibility of media manipulation is not a new phenomenon, and has been commonly known for a long time. However, the growing use of AI to create deepfakes is a cause for concern as the imagery is increasingly realistic, rapidly created and cheaply made. This will make it increasingly difficult to detect a forgery in the future. In 2018, director Jordan Peele and BuzzFeed CEO Jordan Peretti collaborated on a deepfake video to warn the public about disinformation, specifically affecting the people's impression of political leaders. Peele and Peretti overlaid Peele's voice and mouth over a pre-existing footage of Barack Obama using free tools and the expertise of editing experts. In the video, the image of Obama says “we are entering an era in which our enemies can make it look like anyone is saying anything, at any point in time. Even if they would never say those things.” This example, as well as Zelensky’s deepfake video, illustrate how this technology has the potential to be used for nefarious purposes. Therefore, it is important to consider and try and identify the potential threats this new technology can generate and what type of countermeasures can be implemented. Threat Assessment of Deepfakes Deepfakes are powerful tools for the dissemination of disinformation, exploitation and sabotage. This emerging technology, therefore, can potentially create harmful situations. Sabotage and exploitation Deepfakes can be used to generate misleading information that can fool the public. This can be extremely damaging for a company's or individual's reputation. Consider, for example, a deepfake video being created displaying a firm's CEO, elected official or ordinary citizen saying or behaving in an inappropriate manner. Such a deepfake can potentially go viral on social media within minutes. Companies or public figures would have to spend important resources discovering, eliminating, and refuting fraudulent content, as well as covering legal fees and crisis management costs. Additionally, even if one can later prove they were the victim of a deepfake, the reputation’s damage has already occurred. Such damage can potentially result in revenue loss (e.g. impact the stock market), reduced credibility and trust, it can affect election results, but also simply ruin friendships or family relations. Deepfakes can also be used for exploitative purposes. The attacker can use this type of content to gain financial resources or confidential information. The technology can also be used for sexual exploitation purposes or to facilitate criminal activity, such as online child exploitation. Currently, the vast majority of deepfakes applications are sexual in nature, with women being the primary victims. Deepfake sex videos can be created diplaying someone being forced to do violent, humiliating sex actions. These types of videos can be used for financial and sexual exploitation. However, they can also be used as weapons designed to frighten and inflict suffering. When victims learn they've been exploited in deepfake sex tape, the psychological consequences can be severe. This demonstrates that not all of these forgeries are created primarily, if at all, for the creator's sexual or financial gain. (Identity) Fraud Deepfake technology also contributes in creating sophisticated tools for fraud. This potential became reality in 2019, when a deepfake audio was used to imitate the voice of a CEO to assist the fraudulent transfer of funds. Due to the ability of this technology to replicate biometric data, it can also be used to deceive systems that rely on face, voice, vein, or gait identification. Furthermore, this characteristic can also help facilitate espionage. The most recent instance occurred on June 25, 2022, when various European mayors were tricked into holding video calls with a deepfake of Kyiv mayor, Vitali Klitschko. As of yet it is unclear who is behind the action or what their aims were. Decision-making processes Deepfakes have the potential to erode trust in information analysis and outputs offered by digital security platforms, which can complicate decision-making processes. During decisional chokepoints, when there are limited windows of opportunity during which irrevocable decisions must be made. The dissemination of incorrect information may have irreversible consequences. Imagine this scenario; a deepfake video is created depicting a politician saying racial slurs. This video is then released on social media just ahead of elections, giving it enough time to circulate but does not provide the victim enough time to debunk the false information. Voters might take this video into consideration when choosing who to vote for. Even if the politician, eventually, is able to debunk the video the impact could be irreversible as the polls have already closed. In the case of law enforcement, sophisticated (audio)visuals can be used to deceive officers. This may then push officers to take the wrong course of action (e.g. unnecessary, inappropriate, wrong suspect). For businesses, deepfakes can persuade or refrain companies into/from taking on certain investment opportunities or partnerships. Undermine safety, trust and democratic processes Deepfakes increase the chances that someone can induce a public panic. False emergency alerts in the form of deepfakes could go viral due to social media distribution capabilities, and these alerts can forge hyper-realistic evidence thereby increasing their persuasiveness. Deepfakes can reinforce and exacerbate the underlying social division, but they can also trick communities into certain actions (for example, a fake video of a community leader calling for civil unrest and riots could lead to violent action). The technology can be used to create inflammatory content - such as convincing video footage of military forces committing war crimes - with the goal of radicalizing communities, recruiting, or inciting violence. Or it can be used to falsely represent police officers committing crimes in order to discredit them or even provoke violence against them. Legal processes Auditory and visual recordings are vital intelligence for police work and often used as evidence in court, since such recordings are viewed as a truthful account of an event. Despite the fact that picture and audio alteration have been known methods for a long time, these manipulations are typically detectable. Deepfakes provide the ability to create extremely sophisticated auditory and visual material that is difficult to distinguish from real audio and video recordings. If all evidence has to be verified for authenticity, this could lead to a huge increase in costs and time for lawsuits. Furthermore, it could also result in limiting the use of video as proof of human rights violations and crimes, thereby obstructing accountability and justice. Future outlook and possible countermeasures As a result of the combination of deepfakes and disinformation, trust in official facts and authorities is undermined. Experts believe that this may lead to a situation where citizens no longer share a common reality, or confusion about whether certain sources are reliable. This could be known as the “information apocalypse” or “reality indifference.” In the absence of a shared reality, efforts to solve national and global problems become entangled in meaningless first-order questions. People will be able to live in their own subjective realities, and simple empirical insights may spark heated contestation. Threat actors will almost certainly utilize deepfake technology to assist various criminal acts and undertake misinformation campaigns to manipulate or skew public opinion in the months and years ahead. Therefore, it is important to assess these risks and find possible ways to counter the rise of such technologies. There are certain procedures in place to assess the value of information, as false information has always existed. However, these procedures will have to be updated with the rise of deepfakes, for example by investing in new technical capabilities or upskilling workforces, and creating and requiring new capabilities. Currently, it is still possible for the vast majority of deepfake content to be manually detected by looking for inconsistencies. A few examples of these imperfections are: Blurring around the edges of the face Lack of blinking Inconsistencies in the hair, vein patterns, scars etc. Light reflection in the eyes. However, machine learning and artificial intelligence advancements will continue to improve the software used to make deep fakes and the imperfections will disappear over time. Technological solutions have also been hailed as ways to solve this future threat. There have already been efforts to create technological detectors by various actors, such as the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency of the United States. Microsoft also released the Microsoft Video Authenticator, which analyzes a still photo or video to determine whether it has been intentionally edited. However, these new technical solutions that identify deepfakes can also lead to increased surveillance and exclusion. It is therefore critical to implement regulatory and human rights frameworks that keep up with technological advancements. Additionally, deepfake detection abilities also drive the increased quality of deepfakes. The AI technology's learning capability can be used to create a deepfake that will eventually learn how to deceive the detector. Therefore, we need to develop a better understanding of existing practices of OSINT and combine this with new media forensic tools that are being developed. In addition, it is also important to think of preventative measures. For society at large it will be important to focus on understanding deep fakes within a broader media literacy frame, such as the SIFT framework. Or avoid face or voice biometrics for authorization purposes. The risks can also differ amongst various sectors, countries and/or individuals. Therefore, strategic foresight and scenario methods can offer ways of understanding and preparing for the potential impact of these technologies in specific cases. About the author: Sytske Post Sytske is a graduate of International Studies and is currently enrolled in the Master's degree Conflict Studies and Human Rights at Utrecht University. This educational background has provided her with an interdisciplinary understanding of violent conflict and security. Currently, she is particularly interested in the intersection of technology and conflict, ranging from digital disinformation to the shifting nature of warfare powered by artificial intelligence.

Written by Jacob Dickinson On 30 June 2022, Ferdinand Marcos Junior, son of a former corrupt dictator, will be inaugurated as the 17th president of the Philippines. Otherwise known as Bongbong, his election marks a trend of democratic backsliding across Southeast Asia and comes at a time of escalating tensions in the South China Sea (SCS). The military Junta’s seizure of power and civil war in Myanmar and Hun Sen’s persecution of opposition parties in Cambodia, points to a wider trend of growing authoritarianism in Southeast Asia. On the frontline of the SCS dispute, the Philippines is a US treaty ally while China occupies the Scarborough Shoal. How does the return to dynastic politics for the Philippines affect democracy and what does the Marcos presidency mean for security in the South China Sea? Authoritarian Predecessor Bongbong Marcos is the son of Ferdinand Marcos Senior (Sr.), a former dictator of the Philippines. The Marcos’ rise as a political dynasty began in the 1965 presidential election. Back then, Senator Ferdinand Marcos Sr. and his wife, Ismelda, presented themselves as the nation’s prospective saviors. With a collapsing economy and an unpopular incumbent, Marcos Sr. was elected president in 1965. Popular for his first term, he manipulated a growing economy as a result of the Vietnam War boom and elevated the military within his administration. Ferdinand Marcos Sr. dominated political life and began to centralize power in the presidency. In 1969, he was elected for a second term with 74% of the vote and all but 24 out of 120 House candidates supported him. When he tried to overturn the presidential two term limits, widespread protests began against his government. Playing up to middle class fears against violent demonstrations, on 22 September 1972 he declared martial law. He violently repressed political opposition, jailed and controlled all media outlets, and arrested and detained up to 8,000 individuals. During this time Marcos Jr. played a part in his father’s regime. He ran as the Vice Governor of Ilocos Norte and was appointed to the head of a telecommunications company, the Philippines Communications Satellite Corp which was sold off to closely connected cronies. For 15 years, the Marcos dictatorship committed human atrocities and plundered over $10 billion through rampant corruption. Marcos Sr. was eventually deposed in 1986 after a massive demonstration of civil disobedience following a fixed election and the rest of the Marcos family fled to Hawaii in 1986. Yet the legacy of dictatorship outlasted his presidency. The military attempted seven coups against the elected government between 1986 and 2007. The regime left the Philippines in over $70 billion in debt which was used to build luxury hotels rather than invest in industry. While he fled to Hawaii in 1986 with vast amounts of wealth, 44.7% of Filipinos lived in poverty. Democratic Decline The election of Bongbong Marcos to the presidency marks a continuity of popularly elected ‘strongman’ rule in which the population votes for a ‘strong’ leader with little respect for democratic norms and values. Despite the Philippines’ relatively free and fair elections, there is evidence that Bongbong Marcos employed disinformation campaigns and adopted some of the political tactics of the outgoing president, Rodrigo Duterte. The Marcos family attempted to return to public life after coming back from Hawaii in 1991. Their reemergence in Filipino frontline politics has been a long time in the making. During the 2022 election campaign, online disinformation campaigns painted the Marcos dynasty period as a golden age for the Philippines, with investments in building world renowned bridges, roads and economic development. At the same time, Facebook groups ignored Ferdinand Marcos Sr. and his family’s pervasive corruption, high levels of debt, and the extensive crimes against humanity during the 15 years of his brutal dictatorship. In a playbook previously seen across the world, when challenged over the source of wealth by the media, Bongbong Marcos decried it as ‘fake news’ and portrayed himself as a victim of a witch hunt by the mainstream media. Bongbong Marcos has politically positioned himself closely to Rodrigo Duterte, the outgoing president of the Philippines. During his tenure as president, Duterte was one of the world’s most popular leaders, even as he carries out a brutal ‘war on drugs’, which has led to extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrest and detention. Up to 12,000 Filipinos have been killed, with at least 2,555 carried out by the Philippines’ national police, The campaign has mostly affected the urban poor. Duterte’s daughter, Sara, ran on the same ticket with Bongbong Marcos during the 2022 elections. This is unusual as the president and vice president are usually elected on a separate ticket. By running with his Duterte’s daughter, Bongbong Marcos has cultivated a strong affinity with Duterte’s hardline approach. Bongbong Marcos has also adopted Duterte’s anti-elite rhetoric, despite belonging to that same elite himself. The Philippines has high levels of income inequality and wealthy families and politically connected business people have continued to plan the Philippines economy in their own interest. Over 18 wealthy Filipino families have at least two seats in Congress. There has been a gradual reduction in poverty over the past 6 years, but economic inequality within the Philippines remains entrenched. 43% of Filipinos consider themselves to be poor. Bongbong Marcos’ adoption of Duterte’s methods of rewriting his family’s history, presenting himself as a continuity candidate, and railing against an elite demonstrates that political life in the Philippines remains embedded in protecting vast inequalities in wealth. Philippines’ foreign policy How will Bongbong Marcos' rule differ from his predecessor in foreign policy? Southeast Asia remains a key area of intense competition between the US and China. Like every other ASEAN state, the Philippines faces structural challenges of traditional relationships with the US, as well as growing economic links with China. Nevertheless, Marcos could become a pillar of US foreign policy in the region. In the 2022 election, Marcos could take a more hawkish approach to China than his predecessor. Duterte only acknowledged the landmark 2016 International Court ruling against China’s occupation of the Scarborough Shoal after four years. He was silent on China’s occupation to promote continued trade with the country. However, following widespread protests against China’s actions, Bongbong Marcos said that the Philippines will uphold the 2016 ruling and made clear that he contested China’s continued occupation. Of course, China’s military capabilities and economic clout cannot be ignored by Bongbong. However, Marcos' return to the presidency does not entail a smooth ride in US bilateral relations. The Philippines is a US treaty ally and remains a strategically important partner in the SCS. In comparison to Duterte, who threatened to expel US troops from the country, the election of Bongbong Marcos could heal the relationship. He has stated he would improve ties, and given the popularity of the US among the electorate, as well as the strong military support for the US, suggest that this will be the case. Yet his election could also alert the US to worsening democracy and human rights in the country. Strongman rule and disregard for democratic norms could strain the US-Philippines relationship. Marcos' family has faced a class action lawsuit in the US since 1995, that theoretically could lead to his arrest in the US. The structural realities facing the US suggest that the US will be unlikely to make democratic backsliding a cornerstone of US foreign policy. Forecast The return of the Marcos political dynasty to the presidency of the Philippines demonstrates a wider trend of democratic backsliding in Southeast Asia, with acute challenges for human rights and security in the region. In a weakening context of democracy in Southeast Asia, where elites manipulate the political process to maintain their hold on power, the rule of law and human rights are not likely to improve soon. In terms of security in the tense SCS, Marcos will seek to balance the US-China alliance to retain national autonomy. In contrast to Duterte, Marcos could be firm in his relationship with the US in light of China’s assertiveness in the SCS. About the author: Jacob Dickinson Jacob studies Global Political Economy at Leiden University. He is passionate about international development and is looking to expand his expertise in geopolitics and crisis management. Curious about other cultures, he has travelled in Europe and Asia for both academic study and professional purposes. His expertise includes subjects like the geopolitics of energy, China’s international political economy, and the implications of globalized supply chains for industrial policy. He is particularly interested in the evolving political and economic relationships between China and ASEAN, and the consequences for regional development and security.