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Date:   13/10/2025 (15:00 UTC+2) Where?  Madagascar; Antananarivo, Toamasina, Antsirabe, Toliara, Antsiranana, Mahajanga What happened?  On 13/10/2025 , it was reported that the President of Madagascar, Andry Rajoelina, had been flown out of the country on board a French military aircraft following a deal with President Macron.  This latest development follows weeks of civil unrest and protest all over the island nation, with people calling for Rajoelina’s resignation.  It all started on 25/09/2025  when protesters, mostly youth, took it to the streets against water and power cuts. However, the protests soon evolved into a wider expression of dissatisfaction with the country’s governance; high unemployment, corruption and prices spiraling out of control while wages stagnate.   Following the escalating situation, a curfew was declared in the capital Antananarivo on 26/09/2025 .  Unrest continued, which prompted Rajoelina to dissolve parliament on 29/09/2025 . Protesters were meanwhile calling for his resignation.  On 06/10/2025,  Rajoelina appointed an army commander, General Ruphin Fortunat Zafisambo as prime minister to restore order in the country, as protests were ongoing for the 12th day in a row.  However, this did not help easing tensions in the country. Despite calls for dialogue from the president and his administration, people on the street continue to call for his resignation.  On 12/10/2025 , it was reported that an elite army unit from the national army of Madagascar CAPSAT had joined the protesters  and called for the resignation of Malagasy president Andry Rajoelina. This unit earlier played a vital role in the 2009 Malagasy coup, when it stood by Rajoelina’s side ousting president Marc Ravalomanana.  Shortly after the announcement, CAPSAT declared it “took control over the armed forces” - the extent to which they actually exercise control over the state’s security forces remains unclear at the time of writing. CAPSAT soldiers were also reportedly seen escorting protesters  in the capital to May 13 square, where most protests are taking place.  Analysis What began as a simple protest for access to clean water and electricity slowly grew into one of the biggest waves of protests that the island nation has endured in years. It also presents the most serious challenge to Andry Rajoelina since he became president in 2019 (Rajoelina has been in power earlier, between 2009 and 2014 as head of the High Transitional Authority following a military-backed outset of Marc Ravalomanana). This wave of protests in Madagascar fit into a broader global pattern also observed earlier in, for example, Kenya and Nepal. Young people, connected through social networks, protest against their ruling elite, perceived to be deeply corrupt and responsible for declining living standards and a lack of any real perspective, as many developing economies have also been struggling since covid.  Looking back at the period since the protests started in late September, it is clear that Rajoelina was counting on his state security services to crack down on the protesting youth and slowly ‘smoke out’ the protesters in this way. At least 22 people were killed so far during this outburst of violence, according to the United Nations. The appointment of a general as new PM also points to this militarization of governance.  The mutiny by the CAPSAT unit marks a turning point. Historically loyal to Rajoelina (they stood on his side during the 2009 coup mentioned earlier), their defection signals a possible collapse of regime cohesion. It is very likely that this was the last straw which prompted him to leave the country.  All taken together, the coming period will be crucial for Madagascar and its nearly 32 million citizens. Given the fact that it could be possible that Rajoelina fled the country or considering he could do so later if protests continue to escalate, this could lead to a power vacuum in which civilian governance could break down. Conclusion President Andry Rajoelina’s departure from Madagascar aboard a French military aircraft marks the dramatic climax of weeks of escalating unrest. What began as a simple revolt over water and electricity access grew - much like in Kenya or Nepal - into a broader movement challenging the country’s government and leading to the probable collapse of the country’s government. Now, it is likely that the nation will head into a power vacuum. In that scenario, the army could potentially take over power again, as it had done before in 2009. How that will unfold is still hard to gauge. Nonetheless, the coming days will prove to be crucial for the future of the island nation.

How Dyami Leverages Hozint’s Platform For the past few months, Dyami partnered with Hozint to enhance our monitoring capabilities. In the interview, Alessia Cappelletti, our Head of the Analysis Team, explains how Hozint elevated Dyami’s monitoring capabilities by introducing a wider range of local sources, real-time alerts, and advanced geofencing tools. These features reduced research time, improved operational efficiency, and strengthened the accuracy of our risk assessments. About Hozint Hozint – Horizon Intelligence is a leading threat intelligence solution provider. Their platform combines human and artificial intelligence to ensure the highest level of accuracy, timeliness, and granularity. By leveraging the expertise of their human analysts and the power of AI technology, they are able to deliver actionable intelligence that helps our clients stay ahead of potential threats. https://www.hozint.com/ Dowload the full case-study here:

Report date:   06/10/2025  Approximate location of US F-35 aircraft flights 75 km from Venezuela’s capital Caracas (yellow circle) Where: Venezuelan exclusive Economic Zone, Southern Caribbean Who is involved: US military,  Venezuelan authorities What is happening?  Venezuela’s defence minister, Vladimir Padrino Lopez, stated that on 02/10/2025, five US F-35 aircraft were detected flying approximately 75 km off the country’s coast, though he did not specify the exact location or an altitude.   Venezuelan defence authorities said in a 02/10/2025 statement that they will keep the Integrated Aerospace Defence System on high alert and stand ready to exercise their full rights to the defence of sovereignty in response to the F-35 flights reported near their coast. In mid-September, Venezuela’s defence minister accused the United States of tripling reconnaissance flights over areas near its territory, alleging the use of RC-135, P-8 Poseidon, E-3 Sentry aircraft and suggestions of possible MQ-9 Reapers without mentioning the latter explicitly, and expanding operations to include night-time missions in addition to the usual daytime patrols. On 04/10/2025, a former Venezuelan air force officer in exile, Eduardo José Figueroa Marchena, claimed that the five US F-35 aircraft were detected visually by a civilian aircraft, which relayed the sighting to Caracas’ Maiquetía Airport via its contacts. The veracity of this claim remains unclear, but it raises concern that aircraft not detected by radar could lead to a serious airspace incident in the region. The incident coincided with a fourth US strike on what defence officials described as a narcotics-trafficking boat off Venezuela’s coast, reportedly killing four on board. It followed similar actions on 02, 15 and 19 September this year. No significant deviations or unusual flight patterns were observed on 02/10/2025 or in the days that followed. Air traffic activity in the region remained consistent with established civilian and military flight corridors, and there were no confirmed reports of radar anomalies or unauthorised incursions beyond the Venezuelan statement regarding F-35 detection. As of 05/10/2025, airlines reported to be overflying Venezuelan airspace include Air Europa, Air France, Arajet, Avianca, Azul, Gol, Iberia, LATAM, Turkish Airlines, and Wamos Air. A sample of 20 flights from various airlines overflying Venezuela between 28/09/2025 and 05/10/2025showed an average cruising altitude of 11,576 metres, consistent with that of flights over Colombia, Guyana and Brazil, with no indication of altered or restricted flight patterns prior to and after the F-35 incidents. No formal statements of concern or NOTAMs have been issued by airlines operating in the area, indicating that no significant collision risk involving off-route or unidentified aircraft has been assessed at the time of writing. Analysis The F-35 sighting appears to be one of the first notable incidents involving US military fighters operating close to the Venezuelan coast in recent times, amid increasing tension and rhetoric between both governments. The most plausible explanation is that US Air Force flights operated in international airspace inside the Maqueitia FIR roughly 75 km offshore, supporting maritime interdiction or reconnaissance of Venezuelan military or governmental activity. Caracas announcing a “detection” without releasing details such as coordinates or altitude allowed it to demonstrate vigilance while maintaining ambiguity over what its sensors actually tracked. The unverified claim by the exiled Venezuelan air force officer, that a civilian aircraft first observed the jets rather than them being detected by radar, aligns with official reports mentioning a civilian Avianca flight sighting the aircraft. However, the same statement also referred to F-35s being “detected” without specifying the means. There is no publicly verified information indicating that Venezuela possesses radar systems capable of tracking stealth aircraft, suggesting that visual contact would be necessary for identification. This, combined with heightened alert levels and the perception of increased external threats, raises the likelihood of more frequent Venezuelan military patrols, which could intermittently interfere with civilian air routes in the area. In mid-September, Venezuela’s defence ministry accused the United States of increasing aerial surveillance near its territory, alleging a threefold rise in reconnaissance missions using RC-135, P-8 Poseidon and E-3 Sentry aircraft, with possible MQ-9 Reaper involvement, and extending operations into night-time hours. The claim coincided with data released by Venezuela’s Strategic Operational Command, which reported US flights entering the Maiquetía FIR over Caracas and La Guaira, an area Venezuela treats as part of its defensive perimeter though the United States considers it international airspace. The episode followed a series of maritime encounters, including Venezuelan troop deployments and a Venezuelan jet approaching a US Navy vessel earlier in September. These developments reflect a gradual escalation of surveillance and counter-surveillance activity by both governments, with Venezuela using such incidents to reinforce its narrative of vigilance and sovereignty while Washington maintains a visible regional presence under the banner of lawful intelligence gathering and deterrence. Probable area of F-35 flyover near Venezuela’s coast as reported on 02 October 2025 Source: FlightRadar24, 02 October 2025 (accessed 06 October 2025) On 03 October, further reports indicated that at least one Venezuelan S-125 Pechora air-defence system was moving west from Maracay towards Carabobo along the Autopista Regional del Centro, a day after the F-35 reports, suggesting a bid to strengthen coastal air defences and signal readiness. The S-125 offers mobile, medium-altitude cover but is of limited use against fifth-generation stealth, with the move perceived as largely demonstrative. Venezuela also possesses Russian-supplied S-300VM batteries, which could be postured to augment coverage with a range of up to 250 km and create a more layered air-defence system. If pushed forward, the S-300VM’s longer-range engagement zones would widen the offshore coverage area, warranting tighter civil–military deconfliction even if routine overflights remain unaffected for now. Examples of Venezuela’s S-300VM and S-125 Pechora air defence systems  Sources: Venezuelan Armed Forces, 2025 Venezuela’s readiness cycle has clearly shifted. A publicly declared high-alert posture usually translates into shorter response times, stricter rules of engagement, and more frequent radio challenges or intercepts of aircraft near the country’s coast that are perceived as potential threats. It also increases the likelihood of short-notice airspace restrictions if radar tracks appear ambiguous or uncoordinated. This heightens the potential for friction at the civil–military interface, as commercial flights transiting near Venezuela’s coastline could experience brief altitude holds, vectoring instructions, or additional identification checks such as squawk or voice verification. Although none of these effects were observed during the 02 October F-35 episode, the declared defensive posture indicates greater sensitivity to perceived incursions and reduced decision-making time for radar operators and air defence crews—factors that, in congested airspace, can amplify the risk of miscommunication or inadvertent escalation. Avianca flights over Venezuela throughout the day on 02 October 2025 Source: FlightRadar24, 02 October 2025 (07 October 2025) Looking ahead The 02 October F-35 episode signals a new operating baseline off Venezuela’s coast. US military flights close to, yet outside, Venezuelan airspace are likely to become more routine as part of ongoing maritime interdiction and reconnaissance, alongside continued strikes on suspected narcotics-trafficking vessels since early September. In combination with Venezuela’s heightened air-defence posture this raises the probability of false radar contacts, near-coast intercepts or short-notice airspace measures. Forward posturing of S-125 and potential S-300VM assets could extend the offshore risk envelope and compress decision times around coastal fixes. Area of F-35 sightings, Avianca flights and high-altitude airways on 02 October 2025 Source: FlightRadar24, 02 October 2025 (accessed 05 October 2025) For civil aviation the present impact remains limited as carriers have maintained normal overflights and no formal advisories or NOTAMs have been issued. Persistent military presence along busy international air corridors inherently raises the risk of misidentification or unintended escalation, especially if radar detection or communications falter. If US sorties continue at current or higher tempo, Venezuelan forces operating with shorter timelines and tighter rules of engagement could misread an aircraft’s intent, prompting abrupt restrictions or delays even without hostile intent. The risk remains low but potentially high-impact, as illustrated by incidents such as Iran Air 655 downing by a US warship in 1988 over the Persian Gulf, the Siberia Airlines 1812 accidentally shot down by a Ukrainian fighter in 2001 during an exercise, the Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 targeted by Iranian air defence in 2020 or the 2024 Red Sea friendly-fire downing of a US F/A-18, highlighting the need for robust civil-military deconfliction, clear channels and close monitoring of air and maritime activity around northern Venezuela. Dyami Services Security is not a luxury but a necessity. With Dyami Security Intelligence as a Service, you gain a proactive, flexible, and affordable solution to manage risks, monitor geopolitical threats, and respond immediately to crises. Why subscribe to security? ✅ Resilient business operations in today’s world ✅ We act as your security department and Geopolitical Risk Officer ✅ Direct access to security expertise without high costs ✅ Prevent crises with up-to-date threat intelligence ✅ Scalable subscription plans ✅ Access to our unique global network Want to know how this protects your organization? Request a free consultation! Subscription options Dyami Security as a Service: a flexible security subscription that keeps your organization protected at all times—without the need for costly internal capacity.

Date:  03/10/2025 What happened?  Soon, the second anniversary of the 2023 October 7th attack will take place on Tuesday, 07/10/2025. We expect an increased risk of attacks by either Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran or others on this day. On the same day last year, on 07/10/2024, Hamas carried out a rocket barrage at targets in Israel. Six days earlier, on  01/10/2024, Iran launched around 200 ballistic missiles against Israel, under Operation True Promise II. The environment has changed significantly over the past year, with Hamas having lost most of its capabilities to launch rocket barrages, Iran likely aiming to avoid a re-escalation following June’s Twelve-Day War, and Hezbollah now facing a potential forced disarmament. Nevertheless, affiliated groups and individuals may still carry out attacks within Israel and among Jewish communities. Potential targets may include Israel and its strategic assets, but threats could also extend more broadly to Jewish communities worldwide, such as schools, synagogues, or other sites connected to Judaism. Recent incidents support the threat of increased risks. On 01/10/2025 , it was reported that German security forces had arrested three suspected Hamas members accused of preparing a serious act of violence against Jewish targets in Germany.  On 02/10/2025, Yom Kippur , the holiest day of the year in Judaism, took place. On that same day, a terror attack on Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue in Manchester, England, led to two people being killed. The attacker was killed by police. These threats occur against the backdrop of the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which continues to polarize global opinion. In particular, the expansion of IDF operations in Gaza, the leveling of most residential buildings in the city and the resulting humanitarian crisis - with widespread hunger and tens of thousands of casualties as a consequence - have intensified criticism of Israel’s actions. Many now view these operations as unlawful and in violation of human rights, leading to a stronger shift in public opinion toward the Palestinian cause. Consequently, anger could be directed at Jewish people who may be perceived—rightly or wrongly—as complicit, potentially increasing the number of individuals susceptible to carrying out attacks. Analysis The upcoming second anniversary of the October 7, 2023, attack, falling on next Tuesday, presents a heightened risk of violence in the form of potential attacks from Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, or affiliated groups on this date. Attacks from non-affiliated individuals acting independently may also occur. These attacks, often due to the perpetrator's lack of affiliation with a known group and the lack of coordination with other cells that may already be known to authorities, can be harder to prevent.  While Israel and its strategic assets remain primary targets, threats could extend more broadly to Jewish communities worldwide, including synagogues, schools, and other locations associated with Jewish identity. On October 1, 2025, German authorities arrested three men suspected of planning a serious attack on Jewish targets in Germany on behalf of Hamas. On October 2nd, a terrorist attack outside the Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue in Manchester during Yom Kippur, a Jewish holy day, resulted in two fatalities and several injuries. These attacks demonstrate the importance of anniversaries for politically motivated attacks, providing both symbolic significance and operational motivation for extremist groups. Attacks may also be directed against IDF-manned checkpoints, with the latest such attack occurring on 02/10/2025 (with no victims besides the assailants). A similar attack also occurred on 18/09/2025, when a Jordanian truck driver opened fire against two IDF soldiers at the Allenby/King Hussein Bridge, between Jordan and the West Bank.  The current state of affairs surrounding Israel also contributes to an increase in the risk of attacks. The expansion of IDF operations in Gaza, including the leveling of most residential buildings, has triggered a severe humanitarian crisis, with widespread hunger and tens of thousands of casualties. These events have intensified criticism of Israel’s actions, with many regarding them as unlawful and in violation of human rights. In this charged environment, anger could be directed at Jewish people who may be perceived as complicit, potentially increasing the number of individuals inspired or radicalized to carry out attacks. Given these factors, potential targets may include Israeli institutions and diplomatic missions, as well as Jewish schools, synagogues, and cultural centers in Europe, North America, and beyond. Extremist motivations are likely to be multifaceted, combining ideological, retaliatory, and symbolic objectives. Conclusion  The combination of symbolic anniversaries, recent arrests and attacks, and ongoing regional tensions underscores a heightened threat environment around October 7, 2025. Extremist groups and radicalized individuals may enshrine this date to target both Israeli and Jewish sites globally, and the current humanitarian and political context increases the risk of attacks being carried out or inspired. Vigilance, preparedness, and reinforced security measures remain essential to mitigate potential threats.

Report date:  01/10/2025 What happened?  On 15/08/2025, Mali’s junta announced it had detained a French national accused of spying for the French intelligence services. Colonel Assimi Goïta's government claimed “foreign states” were supporting a plot to destabilise Mali’s institutions, allegedly involving a small group within the Malian armed forces.  France rejected the charges as baseless and demanded the immediate release of its staff member, stressing he was a duly accredited diplomat. On 14/09/2025 , five French diplomats were declared persona non grata   by the Malian junta and left the country. This incident was a direct result of the aforementioned diplomatic clash between the two governments. In a corresponding move, the French ordered two Malian diplomats to leave the country on 19/09/2025  and suspended all bilateral counter-terrorism operations with Bamako. The suspension of intelligence sharing between Paris and Bamako can carry serious consequences for the nation that is fighting security threats on multiple fronts. That said, this incident follows a pattern of steady deterioration of relations between the two countries. Historical context The latest rift between Bamako and Paris can only be understood when put in the proper historical context. The deterioration of French-Malian relations follows a steady pattern since its peak in 2013, when French President François Hollande visited French troops stationed  in the country and was met by cheering crowds in downtown Bamako. That year, the French military launched Operation Serval to fight back an alliance of jihadist and Tuareg nationalist rebels who threatened to overrun the Malian capital, deploying not only troops but also intelligence officers. France’s DGSE (foreign intelligence) and DRM (military intelligence) worked closely with local forces, using drones and surveillance aircraft from local airbases, and deploying SIGINT (intelligence-gathering discipline that involves intercepting and analyzing electronic signals and communications) capabilities to support counterterrorism operations under Operation Barkhane. Despite initial successes, the collaboration with the French also had its downsides. While not always publicized, local accusations of espionage occasionally surfaced, with mostly Mali and Burkina Faso claiming Western agents operated beyond agreed frameworks. In August 2020 Malian President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta was overthrown by Colonel Assimi Goïta in a coup that came in the wake of mass protests against corruption, poor governance, and insecurity in northern Mali. In May 2021, Goïta staged a second coup, removing transitional president Bah N’Daw, thus consolidating power under the National Committee for the Salvation of the People (CNSP). After the military junta expelled French forces and welcomed Russian military contractors, pro-government media accused French soldiers of “espionage” and even staging massacres (notably around Gossi, 2022, when France released drone footage to counter Malian claims). Not just in Mali: similar accusations were made against French diplomats and NGOs in Burkina Faso in 2023 and 2024, alleging interference and intelligence gathering. Some French and European staff were expelled under that pretext. After the coup that overthrew President Bazoum in 2023, Niger’s junta accused France of clandestine operations and claimed to have dismantled a French spy network. Paris denied this. As the accusations of espionage against Paris piled up and the French troops gradually left Africa, ending France’s centuries-long presence in Central and West-Africa, the Russians gradually filled the gap the French left behind. Since 2021, the Russian PMCs Wagner Group  and Afrika Corps  have been active in Mali and, to a lesser extent, Burkina Faso. The Russian paramilitaries have been accused of running counter-espionage operations, monitoring NGOs and suspected Western operatives. Multiple reports in 2023 and 2024 indicate that Russian advisers have encouraged Sahelian military governments to crack down on Western intelligence networks, thereby shifting regional intelligence dynamics in favor of Russian-aligned operations. Analysis  The suspension of intelligence sharing between Paris and Bamako marks a significant rupture in Mali’s ability to track and respond to jihadist threats. For years, France supplied SIGINT, satellite imagery, and drone surveillance that Malian forces could never have obtained on their own. In return, Mali contributed valuable on-the-ground insights, drawing its own military networks. With this exchange now cut off, both sides are left weaker. Mali faces a dangerous intelligence gap against jihadist groups active in its territory, while France loses situational awareness that Malian forces could once provide from the ground. The breakdown of cooperation extends beyond intelligence. Although Operation Barkhane formally ended, France continued to support Malian forces through logistics, staff-level training, and joint planning. This coordination provided a degree of cohesion in the fight against Al-Qaeda–linked  Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin  (JNIM) and Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). Without it, the Malian army must rely almost entirely on its own overstretched capabilities and on Russian support, particularly from Wagner’s successor formations such as the Africa Corps. This shift risks producing more fragmented and less effective military operations. France, meanwhile, maintains partnerships with Niger and Chad, but Mali is in danger of becoming a blind spot within the regional counterterrorism architecture. The timing is particularly perilous. Jihadist groups are expanding their reach in central and northern Mali and may seize the opportunity created by the diplomatic rift. Civilians, aid workers, and local officials already face severe risks, and the absence of coordinated counterterrorism efforts could embolden militants to push closer to Bamako. The weakening of Mali’s defenses also threatens to spill across borders, with neighboring states such as Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, and Ghana potentially exposed to an intensification of cross-border raids and insurgent expansion. Beyond the security consequences, the diplomatic fallout signals a deeper geopolitical realignment. By severing ties with France, Mali is doubling down on its strategic turn toward Russia. Moscow provides weapons, training, and paramilitary forces, but this support emphasizes raw military power over intelligence-driven operations. The result is a counterterrorism posture that risks becoming more militarized, less integrated with regional and Western partners, and increasingly isolated from international donors such as ECOWAS and the African Union. The espionage dispute has thus accelerated Mali’s drift into a new security orbit—one in which Russian influence rises while traditional Western alliances erode. Conclusion In sum, the latest espionage dispute is less an isolated incident than the culmination of a long decline in Franco-Malian relations since their 2013 peak. The rupture in intelligence cooperation leaves Mali exposed to jihadist threats, which only seem to increase, and pushes Bamako further into Moscow’s orbit. A more fragile and militarized security situation is what remains, one that risks isolating and destabilizing Mali diplomatically and weakening regional counterterrorism efforts at a moment when the threat environment is worsening across the Sahel.

Report date:   01/10/2025  Where: EU, Mediterranean and Middle Eastern airspace Who is involved: US military, US government, NATO militaries, Turkey Locations of military exercises involving the United States in September 2025 (yellow circles) What is happening?  Unverified online reports and posts on social media have claimed that the United States is preparing airstrikes on Iran, citing screenshots and data from flight tracking platforms. However, a thorough review shows no evidence of planned large-scale military operations against Iran.  Information on US military cargo flights over European, Mediterranean and Middle Eastern airspace suggests there has been little change in numbers between the last two weeks of September and August, with around 109 flights in September compared with 97 in August. The slight increase in cargo flights appears linked to several military exercises in Europe, including the week-long Decisive North 25 in Belgium, a large multinational NATO-related exercise in Germany and the Neptune Strike exercises in the Adriatic Sea, as well as two additional exercises, all of which involved US forces.  No significant rhetoric from either Iran or the United States during September has indicated an increased likelihood of confrontation, suggesting that tensions have remained unchanged from previous months. In the 13 days leading up to the US airstrikes on Iran on 22 June, at least 160 US military transport aircraft were identified flying through European, Mediterranean and Middle Eastern airspace. This compares with 109 flights recorded in the final 13 days of September, and 97 in the final 13 days of August, suggesting a significantly lower movement of assets compared to June.  Analysis The higher number of US military flights in September is consistent with scheduled exercises and routine rotations rather than preparation for operations against Iran. While open source data indicates about 565 US military flights in September compared with about 450 in August and 412 in July, 109 cargo movements were logged in the final 13 days of September versus 97 in the same August window, while the 13 days before the 22 June strikes on Iran saw at least 160 transports, through to be transporting air-defence assets (e.g. Patriot batteries) and other armament types to support the airstrikes. Additionally, September saw five military exercises in Europe compared to only two major ones in August. Taken together the pattern points to support and recovery of exercise forces rather than a pre-strike surge. Source: ADS-B Exchange, 20 June 2025, 11:32 hours UTC  The exercise schedule provides the operational context for this traffic and explains the additional lift and tanker tasking observed. US military exercises in Europe during September included the following: Neptune Strike 2025 : Large-scale multilateral exercises were held in the Adriatic Sea between 22 and 26 September, involving more than 10,000 personnel from the naval, air and land forces of 13 countries. The exercise featured the USS Gerald R. Ford and the command-and-control ship USS Mount Whitney, alongside vessels from Turkey, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Poland, Italy and others. Assets included amphibious assault ships, submarines, frigates and reconnaissance aircraft, with the focus on combined operations across multiple domains. Decisive North 25: Smaller in scale than the other two military exercises, this drill was held at Kleine-Brogel Air Base in Belgium with the participation of the US 701st Munitions Support Squadron and the Belgian Air Force’s 10th Tactical Wing. It was designed to prepare aircrews for high-stakes scenarios and included handling unexploded ordnance as well as rapid-response exercises for specific situations. Saber Junction 25 : A NATO-related exercise in Germany ran from 14 August to 21 September, bringing together more than 7,000 participants and around 1,000 vehicles from 15 countries, including the United States. The exercises involved infantry and other ground forces and required extensive supply and transport routes both within Europe and across the Atlantic from the United States. Quadriga 2025 : Germany led multinational naval exercises in the Baltic Sea from 29 August to 12 September, focusing on countering threats from the air, sea and land and on improving coordination between forces. The United States, France, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and other allies also took part. MASCAL 2025 : Chaplain and religious affairs teams from the United States military based in Italy, Germany and Belgium carried out exercises at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, practising mass casualty scenarios. Between 15 and 19 September, around 120 US Army and Air Force chaplains took part alongside 45 counterparts from other NATO members. Additional training was also conducted at the nearby Sembach Kaserne military base. Tanker activity supports the same interpretation. Coronet transits present as grouped KC-135 and KC-46 sorties escorting fighter elements across the Atlantic into established hubs for exercise participation and rotations. There is no sustained rise in tanker loitering near contested airspace, no unusual forward dispersal of fighters identified and no change in activity such as persistent AWACS coverage or electronic warfare platforms. Routing and timing appear to follow routine tracks and established airspace arrangements. A modest increase in tankers and reconnaissance platforms may also reflect ongoing support to NATO allies along the Baltic region and in Poland, including air policing, deterrence patrols and reinforcement exercises. A  Lakenheath-based US F-15 Eagle flying near Mildenhall-based KC-135 tankers engaged in regular air-to-air refuelling exercises over the UK on 28 September Source: ADS-B Exchange, 25 September 2025, 11:28 hours UTC  Daily number of US military flights in the Mediterranean, UK, EU and Middle Eastern airspace between May and September 2025 A review of cargo mix and routing is consistent with deployment and redeployment cycles. Movements concentrate on Ramstein, Moron, Rota, Aviano, Lakenheath, Spangdahlem, Sigonella and Souda Bay with return flights that match exercise schedules. Loads align with personnel rotation, spares, munitions resupply and exercise support rather than forward staging for combat. There is no parallel surge of specialist enablers such as Rivet Joint, stand off strike fleets or a bomber task force and no unusual basing activity that would indicate an impending operation. Additionally, only one Carrier Strike Group, the USS Nimitz  is currently operating in Middle Eastern waters, compared to at least two during the June confrontation leading up to the US airstrikes on Iran.  US military cargo flights towards the Middle East on 20 June 2025 during the height of the Israel-Iran confrontation Source: ADS-B Exchange, 20 June 2025, 11:32 hours UTC  Looking ahead A United States confrontation with Iran cannot be ruled out, but current indicators point away from an imminent move. September saw no material escalation in public rhetoric from Washington or Tehran and US strategic attention remains focused on Ukraine and developments around Venezuela. The air picture is best explained by support to scheduled training and routine posture management in Europe. An increase in cargo sorties on its own does not imply preparations for operations. Historic build ups feature a marked rise in tankers and fighters, the forward movement of specialised enablers and munitions, visible command and control activity and political signalling that frames intent. Those elements are not present. The prudent assessment is that current US air movements reflect the support and return of assets for planned exercises and readiness cycles rather than the opening phase of a new operation. Dyami Services Security is not a luxury but a necessity. With Dyami Security Intelligence as a Service, you gain a proactive, flexible, and affordable solution to manage risks, monitor geopolitical threats, and respond immediately to crises. Why subscribe to security? ✅ Resilient business operations in today’s world✅ We act as your security department and Geopolitical Risk Officer✅ Direct access to security expertise without high costs✅ Prevent crises with up-to-date threat intelligence✅ Scalable subscription plans✅ Access to our unique global network Want to know how this protects your organization? Request a free consultation! Subscription options Dyami Security as a Service: a flexible security subscription that keeps your organization protected at all times—without the need for costly internal capacity.

October 02, 2025 – New York – MD ONBOARD , a global leader in remote aviation medical advisory and health risk management, and Dyami , a renowned specialist in aviation security intelligence and training, are proud to announce a new strategic partnership. Together, the companies will provide the aviation industry with a comprehensive, end-to-end health and security ecosystem that raises the standard of care, preparedness, and resilience across commercial and business aviation. This collaboration unites MD ONBOARD’s aviation-trained emergency medical expertise and risk advisory services with Dyami’s world-class aviation security intelligence, AVIATION SECURITY training, and risk consultancy. The result is an unparalleled offering that addresses the intertwined health and security challenges facing airlines, airports, and business aviation operators worldwide. “At MD ONBOARD, we know that safety in aviation extends far beyond the aircraft cabin—it is about protecting crew, passengers, and operations at every stage,” said Wehda El Aridi Chief Growth Officer of MD ONBOARD. “By joining forces with Dyami, we are bringing airlines and business aviation stakeholders a unified solution that combines world-leading medical advisory with cutting-edge security intelligence and training.” Through this partnership, aviation stakeholders will benefit from: ● 24/7 Remote Aviation Medical Advisory Services – real-time inflight medical guidance, pre-flight clearances, and crew health management. ● Risk Intelligence, Overflight & Destination Assessments – tailored overflight and destination risk assessments. These assessments are grounded in our continuous monitoring and analysis of human-based intelligence, and other trusted sources. ● Aviation Security Awareness Training – equipping managers and operators with regulatory knowledge, risk awareness, and geopolitical leadership skills. ● Disaster Preparedness & Simulation Exercises – integrated medical and security scenarios designed to strengthen response and resilience. ● Medical & Security Infrastructure Support – from WHO-compliant medical kits and infection control protocols to scalable security programs for major events and global operations. “The aviation sector is navigating an era of unprecedented complexity, where medical, operational, and security risks are increasingly interlinked,” said Eric Schouten , CEO of Dyami. “Our partnership with MD ONBOARD ensures that airlines and business aviation operators have access to holistic, PEOPLE-CENTRIC and intelligence-driven solutions that safeguard both people and operations and enable business.” The partnership arrives at a pivotal moment for the aviation industry, as global carriers, business aviation providers, and event organizers seek to strengthen resilience against health crises, evolving security threats, and operational disruptions. Together, MD ONBOARD and Dyami will deliver solutions that are innovative, scalable , and aligned with international best practices, ensuring that aviation stakeholders are better equipped to protect passengers, empower crews, and enhance operational confidence. About MD ONBOARD MD ONBOARD is a leader in aviation medical solutions, dedicated to enhancing inflight safety and healthcare for both commercial and business aviation worldwide. Specializing in remote medical support, first aid training, and regulatory compliance, MD ONBOARD provides aviation-specific medical guidance and comprehensive training to equip crew members with the information needed to manage inflight medical emergencies. With a commitment to quality and innovation, MD ONBOARD partners with airlines, aviation organizations and industry partners to improve passenger safety and crew readiness globally. MD ONBOARD is a fully owned subsidiary of Northwell Health. For more information, visit www.mdonboard.com, and follow us on LinkedIn. About Dyami Dyami is an internationally recognized security intelligence and aviation risk management company. With expertise in people-centric aviation risk intelligence solutions, analysis and forward looking reporting, including risk consultancy, Dyami empowers aviation stakeholders to anticipate threats, improve resilience, and meet international security standards. This forward-looking intelligence ensures that clients are not only aware of risks but also prepared to act on them - turning uncertainty into informed decisions. Dyami Academy delivers practical, scenario-driven training programs that instil a “security mindset” across industries. For more information, visit www.dyami.services, and follow us on LinkedIn. Media Contact: Sandy Dell sandy.dell@mdonboard.com

Areas of reported drone sightings in Denmark between 22 and 24  September 2025.  Report date:   26/09/2025  Where:  Denmark, Jutland peninsula.  Who is involved: Airport authorities, Danish National Police, unknown drone operator(s), Danish government.  What happened?  Between 22 and 23 September over 30 flights  to Copenhagen Airport were delayed or diverted to Billund and Aarhus in Denmark as well as Malmo and Gothenburg in Sweden due to two to three large drones spotted flying in the airfield vicinity during nocturnal hours. Starting 21:44 hours local time on 24/09/2025 , drone sightings were reported in the vicinity of Aalborg Airport,  used for both commercial and military flights, resulting in the diversion of at least two flights to Copenhagen and one to Karup. North Jutland police reported the final drone sighting at 00:54 . On 25/09/2025 at 04:21 hours local time , reports indicated drone activity in the vicinity of Billund Airport , prompting authorities to close the airspace for one hour as a precautionary measure, although local authorities were unable to confirm any sightings at the time of writing  Unconfirmed drone sightings were also reported at multiple critical locations in Southern Jutland, including Sønderborg Airport , as well as Esbjerg, Holstebro (noted for critical military infrastructure), and Danish airforce base Skrydstrup.   Authorities chose not to neutralise the drones to avoid collateral damage such as injuring passengers or damaging fuel depots or aircraft.  On 26/09/2025 , Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced that Denmark faced sustained hybrid threats that have shown vulnerabilities enabling better counter hybrid attacks, raising alert levels and preparing for different scenarios, including a mandate to shoot down enemy drones in the future.  No perpetrator, drone-type, origin or destination have been definitively identified by Danish authorities for any of the incidents.  Areas of reported drone sightings in Denmark between 23 and 24 September 2025 Flights diverted and in holding patterns as Copenhagen airport halted operations due to drones in the vicinity on 22/09/2025 Source: FlightRadar24 (accessed 24/09/2025) Analysis In the past couple of weeks, there has been a notable increase in airspace-violating related incidents reported in eastern Europe and Denmark. The recent reports indicate drone flights in Aalborg, Billund and Southern Jutland, all operating with visible indicator lights, similar to the incidents reported in Copenhagen  earlier in the week, suggest that the perpetrator seeks to disrupt, sow public turmoil and show capability rather than attacking assets.  In the broader European context, similar incidents possibly indicate the beginning of a trend: airport drone disruptions offer organized actors high impact at relatively low cost , undermining public confidence and straining security resources. While some observers have raised questions about potential external involvement, official investigations have not yet attributed the sightings to any particular actor or country. These developments illustrate the growing complexity of the regional security environment, especially in the aviation and critical infrastructure sectors, and the heightened vigilance required by Denmark and Europe. In this context, Denmark also recently announced two military commitments. On 14 September, Denmark approved a temporary law that will allow the country to host Ukraine’s missile fuel production near the F-35 base in Skrydstrup. While on 18 September, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced the decision to acquire European-made long-range precision weapons. This signalled a significant shift in national security policy, showing the government’s anticipation of regional instability and the need for enhanced defence capabilities. Recent disruptions may be deliberate attempts to test defence capacity and response, similar to the events in Poland and Estonia.   In a statement given on 26 September, following the recent events, Frederiksen emphasized that Denmark has been subjected to hybrid attacks in recent days and that drones have been seen near several critical infrastructure both military and civilian considering it as a new reality for Europe and Denmark. This marks a shift from ad‑hoc crisis handling to a proactive attitude towards threats posed by drones and aviation disruptions. Expect tighter rules of engagement around airports/bases, with authorities raising alert levels and preparing for multiple scenarios and obtaining a mandate to shoot down enemy drones.  Looking ahead European governments and airport operators are expected to implement faster response protocols to drone sightings and invest in advanced detection systems integrated with clear handover procedures for police and military authorities. Pressure is likely to increase for tighter regulation, including mandatory registration, expanded geofencing and defined legal authority to neutralise drones where this can be done without endangering passengers or infrastructure, especially after the mandate to shoot down enemy drones announced by PM Frederiksen. Airlines may be required to refine diversion strategies and passenger management processes to mitigate operational disruption. At the strategic level, a continuation of drone incidents combined with uncertainty over US security commitments may drive EU and NATO members to seek greater American support to accelerate their own security measures airspace protection, which is increasingly perceived as vulnerable. Incidents involving drones causing flight disruptions are expected to continue in the upcoming weeks given recent patterns, requiring stakeholders in the aviation field to make contingency plans and expect situational changes on short notice.

Date:   23/09/2025 What happened?  On 22/09/2025 , NATO allies convened to discuss a significant incident involving the violation of Estonian airspace by Russian military jets . Estonia had invoked Article 4 of the NATO treaty. Article 4 was invoked earlier this month as well. On 10/09/2025, Poland’s government also invoked the article after several drones violated its airspace and had to be shot down by NATO fighter jets.  Article 4 of the NATO treaty  allows member states to consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, their territorial integrity, political independence, or security is threatened. This marked the first time since the war in Ukraine began that Article 4 was activated in response to a direct military incursion by Russia into a NATO member's airspace. During the summit, NATO allies expressed strong concern  over the incident, emphasizing the potential risks of escalation  and the importance of maintaining the alliance's collective defense posture .  While the summit did not result in immediate public declarations or actions, the consultations reaffirmed NATO's consensus-based decision-making process and its readiness to address emerging threats collectively. The alliance's response to this incident is expected to influence its future strategic posture and defense planning, particularly concerning the protection of its eastern borders. In a UN emergency meeting on 22/09/2025 , European allies also warned that they would shoot down Russian jets or drones involved in any further violations of NATO airspace.  Regardless of the outcome, the risk for aviation is trending upwards. While the immediate risk of full-scale war remains low , we caution that continued violations could lead to unintended escalation. Analysis Current analysis is divided on whether the Estonian airspace violation was a deliberate provocation or a miscalculation . The incident's timing, following similar breaches in Poland and Romania , suggests a pattern that could be aimed at probing NATO's defenses and unity. “This event, following on the heels of the Russian drone incursion into Polish airspace, creates the impression that Russia either wants to escalate and pull more countries into this conflict with Ukraine, or doesn’t have full control of those who operate its fighter planes and drones,” US Ambassador to the United Nations Waltz said. NATO's swift and unified response, including the invocation of Article 4 and condemnation of the violation, underscores the alliance's commitment to collective defense . This collective stance is seen as a deterrent against further provocations  and a signal to Russia of NATO's readiness to defend its members. This willingness to escalate when confronted with these events could also be perceived as a weak point by an adversary that is merely probing for capabilities and response patterns . While the immediate risk of full-scale war remains low , we caution that continued violations could lead to unintended escalation. Repeated breaches may erode the threshold for military engagement  and increase the likelihood of miscalculations leading to broader conflict . “Our commitment to Article 5 is ironclad” is what was stated by NATO in a climate where Polish prime minister Donald Tusk, working with a Defense budget nearing 5% of its GDP, claims all flying objects in violation of Polish airspace will be shot. The incident has prompted NATO to reassess its defense posture , particularly in the Baltic region . Strengthening air patrols and enhancing rapid response capabilities are among the measures being considered to bolster deterrence and ensure swift action in case of future violations. On 12 September, NATO launched “Eastern Sentry” to bolster its posture along the entire Eastern flank. Aside from military considerations, these violations have serious consequences for civil and business aviation in central and eastern Europe. Airlines operating in this region face heightened risks due to increased military activity, increased GNSS interference, and potential unpredictable air defense responses. The result of this will be higher operating costs for airlines and growing pressure in European regulators to adapt to an increasingly volatile security environment.  Conclusion The violation of Estonian airspace serves as a critical juncture in NATO-Russia relations. While the immediate threat of escalation is contained, the situation remains fluid. Ongoing diplomatic efforts and military preparedness will be essential in managing tensions and preventing further provocations. From a security perspective, it remains crucial to keep a close eye on current developments that could trigger further escalation towards Article 5 scenarios. Article 5 in the NATO Charter states that an armed attack against one or more NATO members is considered an attack against all members. Future events will play out between the two, namely Article 4 and Article 5. Regardless of the outcome, the risk for aviation is trending upwards with risks including but not limited to heightened military activity, increased GNSS interference and potential unpredictable air defense responses. Historical incidents, like the MH17 shootdown over Ukraine, show this is a real danger.

Date:   23/09/2025 What happened?  On 22/09/2025 , a treason trial began against the Vice President of South Sudan, Riek Machar. Machar is charged with murder, treason and crimes against humanity in relation to an attack by a militia earlier this year. Alongside him, seven others are also charged, including petroleum minister Puot Kang Chol. The trial, however, is crucial for the future of South Sudan. The latest break between Machar and the South Sudanese President Salva Kiir is not just interpersonal friction but represents an interethnic clash too, as both men belong to different ethnic groups. Kiir, the president, is a Dinka (around 35.8% of the country), while Machar belongs to the Nuer people (+-15.6%). Puot Kang Chol also belongs to the Nuer group. Shortly after independence in 2011, South Sudan got engulfed in a devastating civil war which spanned from 2013 to 2020 and was largely the result of unresolved ethnic tensions. South Sudan is home to 60 different ethnic groups. The civil war ended in 2020 and the peace agreement encompassed a power-sharing agreement in which the most dominant ethnic groups (Dinka and Nuer) would both occupy important state positions to maintain balance. The composition between Dinka Kiir and Nuer Machar was a result of that agreement. While good in theory, the power-sharing relationship always remained fragile, partially also due to personal differences between the two most important political figures in the world’s youngest nation.  Aside from this week’s trial, tensions were already mounting for months. In March, of 2025 heavy fighting took place between the White Army, an ethnically Nuer militia, and the South Sudanese army (SSPDF). A UN helicopter was shot down and dozens were killed on both sides.  As a response to the Nasir clashes, the SSPDF increased their pressure on the White Army, with significant collateral damage. On 18/03/2025 , an army airstrike killed 21 civilians in the same town where earlier clashes took place, Nasir. Around 26/03/2025 , it was reported that Vice President Riek Machar was put under house arrest, adding significantly to pre-existing tensions in the country.  On 27/03/2025 , the SPLM-IO, Riek Machar’s political party, stated that his arrest cancelled the pre-existing peace deal.  Several months of the uneasy status quo followed, until renewed tensions in September. On 02/09/2025 , renewed fighting in South Sudan led to 14 killed, also in the Nasir area.  On 11/09/2025 , in an escalating turn of events, Riek Machar was charged with murder, treason and crimes against humanity for his alleged involvement in the fighting in Nasir earlier in March.  Slowly, the fragile power sharing in South Sudan appeared to break down. On 12/09/2025 , the SLPM-IO publicly stated that the government is trying to enforce ‘one tribe rule’. Not long after, on 17/09/2025 , the same party called for regime change.  Analysis The trial of Vice President Riek Machar of South Sudan is much more than just a legal proceeding: it is a turning point in South Sudan’s post-civil war fragile political experiment. By putting Machar, the most influential Nuer political figure in the country, on trial for crimes against humanity, Kiir’s government is effectively dismantling the power-sharing structure that has held South Sudan together since 2020, designed to balance power among South Sudan’s patchwork of ethnic groups. The fact that Petroleum Minister Puot Kang Chol is also on trial signifies that it is not just about Machar - it appears to be a wider effort to sideline the Nuer in South Sudan’s political structure.  The consequences are already visible. The SPLM-IO, Riek Machar’s political party, a predominantly Nuer political party and important player in South Sudanese politics has already called for a regime change, which means that in essence, the power-sharing agreement has failed. Looking forward, the situation in South Sudan warrants close monitoring as violence could re-escalate at a moment’s notice. If Machar is convicted, the likelihood that the situation might escalate is high, as several Nuer hardliners might see the South Sudanese state as being an opponent to Nuer interests. Backing down from the charges would mean that Kiir could be perceived as weak by giving in to the pressure. The only other viable option would be mediation by the African Union or any other mediating third-party. A complete failure of mediation would mean that South Sudan could slip back into civil war. Conclusion  The trial of South Sudan’s Vice President Riek Machar threatens to destabilize the country at its core, as it signals not only a political struggle but also the marginalization of one of its key ethnic communities from a power-sharing framework crafted after the 2020 peace deal. With tensions already rising and the balance of representation unraveling, the outlook for the world’s youngest nation remains uncertain. Without mediation, South Sudan risks sliding back into the interethnic violence that has defined much of its history since independence in 2011.

Date:   19/09/2025, 17:00 UTC+2  Where?  Peru, Ecuador, Argentina, Mexico Timeline   On 12/09/2025 , the Ecuadorian government  announced the immediate removal of the diesel subsidy, aiming to redirect funds to social programs. The announcement triggered widespread protests across seven provinces, including the capital city Quito.  On 14/09/2025 , hundreds protested against gentrification and rising rents in Mexico City’s  centro historico, demanding housing access and an end to evictions. The U.S. embassy issued a security alert advising caution near demonstrations. On 14/09/2025 , the demonstrations in Peru  began following the expiration of the tourist bus operator Consettur's 30-year concession. On  16/09/2025  President Daniel Noboa declared a 60-day state of emergency in Ecuador , aiming to reduce disruptive gatherings in affected provinces.  On 16/09/2025 , residents in Peru blocked train tracks to Machu Picchu, stranding about 900 tourists, to protest the bus service contract for the site. On 17/09/2025 , tens of thousands of Argentines filled the streets of downtown Buenos Aires  to demand increased funding for universities and pediatric care, which have suffered cuts under libertarian President Javier Milei's austerity measures. Scheduled  On 20/09/2025 , a pro-Palestine protest is scheduled in Mexico City . The United Workers Front (FUT) has announced a nationwide protest in Ecuador scheduled for 23/09/2025 . Mexico city, Mexico   On 14/09/2025 , hundreds gathered in Mexico City’s centro historico to protest gentrification and rising rents. Similar protests have taken place in the capital since July 2025. Demonstrators demanded housing access and an end to forced evictions, blaming luxury developments and short-term rentals for displacing long-term residents. Some protests involved vandalism and anti-foreigner slogans against tourists and expatriates, as the sharp rise in property value has been partially driven by an influx of foreign residents. The U.S. embassy issued a security alert warning to avoid demonstrations, highlighting risks of property damage and possible arrests for political involvement under Mexican law. For years, residents, especially in popular neighborhoods like Roma and Condesa, have been priced out of their homes. Rent in some areas has more than doubled, while the average local monthly wage remains significantly lower than the cost of a two-bedroom apartment. The protests are expressing growing inequality and community frustration with urban policies favoring real estate speculation over affordable housing. These tensions complicate Mexico City's social cohesion and urban planning. What happens now? City officials have proposed regulations to limit rent increases and control short term rentals to address housing affordability. However, protestors remain skeptical of these measures. Protests are likely to continue as community groups push for more comprehensive policies to prevent displacement and ensure affordable housing access. Authorities are closely monitoring  demonstrations to manage public safety.  Ecuador On 12/09/2025 , President Daniel Noboa’s government announced the immediate removal of the diesel subsidy, aiming to redirect funds to social programs. This decision triggered widespread protests across 7 of the 24 provinces, including Quito, where fuel prices surged from $1.80 to $2.80 per gallon. Clashes erupted between security forces and civil society, with police deploying tear gas and riot control tactics to disperse demonstrators. In response to escalating unrest, President Noboa declared a 60-day state of exception on 16/09/2025 , later updated to a state of emergency, granting security forces expanded powers to suppress disruptive gatherings while maintaining general movement. Simultaneously, in Cuenca, around 90,000 people marched against the environmental license for the Loma Larga gold mining project, fearing threats to the city’s main water source. The diesel subsidy, instituted in the 1970s after the discovery of Amazonian oil reserves, was designed to share national wealth and keep automotive fuel prices low, especially for sectors reliant on fuel like agriculture and transport. While it provided economic relief, the subsidy placed a $1.1 billion annual burden on fiscal accounts and was divided among Super, Extra, and Ecopais fuels. Past attempts to reduce subsidies have repeatedly led to unrest: the Moreno government’s 2019 reforms triggered  nationwide riots and lockdowns, while the Lasso administration faced an 18-day strike in 2022.   ​​ What happens now?   Historical precedents show that subsidy cuts and fuel price hikes have often led to large-scale protests and forced government reversals most notably in 2019 and 2022. If the subsidy cuts are not addressed or revoked, the protests are likely to continue in the upcoming days. Travellers may experience disruptions and should exercise caution, especially in provinces currently under state of emergency: Carchi, Imbabura, Pinchincha, Azuay, Bolívar, Cotopaxi and Santo Domingo.  Machupicchu, Peru On 16/09/2025 , Machu Picchu faced major operational disruptions due to protests by local residents in Aguas Calientes. Demonstrators blocked railway tracks that connect the town to the UNESCO World Heritage Site, halting passenger train services operated by Perurail. The protests arose from dissatisfaction with the government's selection of new bus operators to replace the previous company whose 30-year concession had expired. Residents demanded a transparent bidding process to ensure local business participation. As a result, approximately 900 tourists were stranded at the site and 1400 tourists were evacuated overnight in a coordinated effort by Peruvian authorities. Protestors also caused physical damage to railway infrastructure, complicating transportation logistics and evacuation efforts. The protests significantly interrupted tourism, one of Peru's critical economic sectors, causing strain on emergency services and transportation infrastructure. The U.S. embassy issued travel warnings due to risks of being stranded or caught in further unrest. A global heritage group  warned that ongoing conflict threatens the site's reputation. This highlights systemic governance and tourist management challenges in Peru, including opaque concession processes and lack of local community inclusion factors that drive unrest and threaten long-term stability. What happens now? Authorities and local stakeholders agreed on a temporary halt to resume transit services and began discussions to resolve the bus operator dispute. Travelers should anticipate possible disruptions in the near term, prepare carefully and stay updated through official channels. Buenos Aires, Argentina  On 17/09/2025 , tens of thousands of Argentines marched near the national congress and through the downtown of Buenos Aires to protest President Milei’s vetoes of bills that would increase funding for public universities and healthcare. Demonstrators, including students, teachers and healthcare workers called for rejecting the vetoes and restoring funding cuts that have severely impacted education and health services. The demonstrations coincided with significant political challenges for Milei, including declining approval ratings and upcoming midterm elections. The protest, which have occurred at various times and locations in the past two years, highlights widespread dissatisfaction with austerity policies that threaten essential social services, including public education, healthcare, and pensions. Milei’s government has also devalued the Argentine peso and privatized state-owned companies. The sustained unrest reflects risks further destabilizing the country's governance amid economic pressures. What happens now?  In response, the lower house of Congress overturned the vetoes, although the Senate’s approval is still needed. Continued political negotiations and potential protests are expected to continue, especially in the capital, as discontent with President Milei’s policies continues. Travelers should monitor official websites for strikes and demonstrations announcements and avoid protest areas. For more information about our services or subscription options, contact info@dyami.services

Date: 18/09/2025  (12:00 UTC+2) Where?  South China Sea: Scarborough Shoal Who’s involved?  China, Philippines What happened?  On 07/08/2025, three Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) Zhaoyu-class  cutters, Hailing (3301), Dahao (3304)   and Zhongjian (4304), were spotted in the Luzon Strait, approaching the Batanes island group. Batanes is the northernmost Philippine province, located just south of Taiwan. The vessels reportedly did not respond to Philippine radio challenges (requests/demands). This was the first publicly known instance in which the CCG had deployed vessels this far east in Philippine waters. On 11/08/2025,  CCG  Jiangdao-class cutter (3104) collided with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Type 052D destroyer Guilin (164) while the former was chasing   Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) Parola-class patrol vessel BRP Suluan  (MRRV-4406) ,  which was reportedly delivering supplies to Philippine fishermen near Scarborough Shoal. On 12/08/2025, China deployed several CCG vessels, as well as some Chinese Maritime Militia (CMM) vessels. The latter is a mix of actual fishing vessels whose crew can occasionally be used in quasi-military operations and purpose-built CMM vessels. These look like fishing vessels, but are usually larger and always much better equipped. These deployments are often referred to as “swarms” due to the sheer number of vessels that approach a given position or asset (i.e. a Philippine vessel). These deployments usually aim to block Philippine vessels from entering a certain area and force them back.  On 13/08/2025, the US carried out a Freedom of Navigation Operation (FONOP) near Scarborough Shoal with US Navy (USN) Arleigh Burke- class destroyer USS Higgins (DDG-76). Independence-class USS Cincinnati (LCS-20) was also spotted nearby, although it was not officially named as being part of the FONOP.  On 13/08/2025, the PLA’s Southern Theater Command spokesperson, Senior Capt. He Tiecheng, stated it had “sent its naval troops to track, monitor, warn and expel the US Navy vessel”. The PCG reported two PLAN Type 054A frigates shadowing and issuing radio challenges to Higgins. The USN refuted the claim that it had been “expelled”, or otherwise halted Higgins’ FONOP due to PLAN actions. On 10/09/2025, China announced its plans to create a national nature reserve in Scarborough Shoal. The reserve will occupy around 3.523 hectares (35 km²). On 11/09/2025, the Philippines protested the plan, arguing it serves as a “pretext to eventual occupation”. On 16/09/2025, the PCG released footage showing two CCG vessels, a likely Zhongtao-class patrol craft (21562) and a Zhaojun-class  cutter (5201), harassing Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) ship BRP Datu Gumbay (MMOV-3014) (Appendix A; A1, A2, A3) . The latter was conducting a resupply mission to provide Philippine fishermen in the area with ice and fuel. The CCG used water cannons to harass Datu Gumbay , which resulted in an injured crew member and significant damage to the ship. On 18/09/2025, the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs filed a formal diplomatic protest against China’s actions in the 16/09/2025 incident.  Analysis The contention of Scarborough Shoal dates back to 2012, when China first restricted access to the Shoal, which is within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The Philippines expected the US to intervene, as the two countries share a mutual defence treaty and Manila had made clear it saw the blockade of the island as a violation of its sovereignty. The US, however, did not recognise anyone’s sovereignty over the island, Philippines included, and did not intervene. Subsequent Philippine efforts to solve the issue via the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) were, although the court ruled in Manila’s favour, unsuccessful, as China essentially ignored the ruling.  China has since maintained a presence around the Shoal using CCG and CMM assets. Despite this, the Philippines always sought to contest the Chinese presence. China had, from 2013 to 2016 embarked in constructing the so-called “Wall of Sand”, a large-scale land reclamation in the Spratly Islands archipelago which resulted in China effectively taking control over several reefs within the contested archipelago. Manila’s will to maintain presence and pressure over the Shoal was to avoid a similar occurrence.  On 17/07/2024, the CCG interfered with a Philippine resupply mission to BRP Sierra Madre , a deliberately grounded ship that the Philippines has, since 1999, used as an outpost in Second Thomas Shoal, within the Spratly Islands. Although tensions never really de-escalated since 2012 — and Chinese interference on rotation and reprovision missions (RORE) was commonplace — this incident was particularly heated and resulted in both parties almost using deadly force on each other. Since then, tensions in both Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal had calmed, especially compared to recent years.  However, the collision on 11/08/2025 reignited China’s anger, arguably due to the public humiliation it had suffered. The plan to create a national reserve around Scarborough Shoal gives China an excuse to unilaterally formalize its claims on the shoal and does so without the need to construct a structure of any sort, at least not immediately. Moreover, it directly challenges the use of the water around the shoal, a known fish-rich area, for fishing. The Philippines, joined by its allies, has already criticized the plan. Still, if the latter goes through, criticism will have a negligible impact on China’s willingness to defend its newly created reserve against “...all types of illegal and irregular activities”, supposedly by any means it deems necessary. Conclusion The national nature reserve plan may be only a threat, but the situation remains fragile. A national nature reserve will give China the opportunity to justify harsher harassment against Philippine fishing vessels and their supporting fleet; it will also give China an excuse to erect some sort of construction in the shoal, cementing, literally, Beijing’s claim over it.  If the plan were to materialize, it would also become another way in which Beijing can test Manila’s resolve. It is unlikely that either country wants to deliberately use lethal force, but, if that were the case, Manila’s resolve, and by extension Washington’s, would be thoroughly tested. Philippine President Marcos has already indicated that if Chinese harassment against Philippine vessels were to result in a fatality, the Philippine government would regard it as an act of war. In this regard, the death of a Philippine national at the hands of China is a plausible occurrence, exemplified by the use of high-pressure water cannons against Philippine vessels, which already cause significant damage to the watercraft they target (Appendix A; A4). In an already heated environment in the South China Sea, such an event could result in unpredictable developments. Appendix A A1 A CCG patrol craft, likely Zhongtao-class,  (21562) using one of its water cannons against BRP Datu Gumbay (MMOV-3014) A2   Zhaojun-class  cutter (5201) navigating close to BRP Datu Gumbay (MMOV-3014) A3 CCG patrol craft, likely Zhongtao-class,  (21562) using one of its water cannons against BRP Datu Gumbay . Filmed from the CCG vessel.  Zhaojun-class  cutter (5201) can be seen in the background. A4 Damage sustained by BRP Datu Gumbay (MMOV-3014) due to a water cannon. A5 Damage sustained by BRP Datu Gumbay (MMOV-3014) due to a water cannon.. It appears that the windows in the aft section of the upper deck shattered.