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Date: 06/11/2024
Where: Bolivia
Who’s involved: Incumbent Bolivian President Luis Arce, former President Evo Morales, pro-Morales supporters
What happened?
On 01/11/2024, Bolivian President Luis Arce reported that armed supporters of former President Evo Morales (2006-2019) had taken control of a military facility near the city of Cochabamba, holding at least 200 soldiers hostage and seizing weapons. Although the foreign minister later called the attackers “irregular groups” without specifying their connection to Morales, the attack is the latest development of a three-week long social unrest sparked by legal investigations against former Bolivian leader Morales. The former leader is currently implicated in multiple legal proceedings, including statutory sexual abuse and human trafficking.
Following the issue of an arrest warrant for Morales in early October, Morales supporters have been maintaining over 20 roadblocks in multiple areas of the country, including the central Cochabamba, traditionally Morales’s political stronghold. In the past few weeks, at least 61 law enforcement officers and nine civilians have been injured during clashes between protestors and security forces. Over 50 pro-Morales protesters have been arrested. The protestors claim that the ongoing investigations are nothing but a strategy of Arce’s government to prevent Morales’ candidacy.
On 27/10/2024, after his car was shot fourteen times while driving in Cochabamba, former President Morales claimed he was the victim of a staged government assassination attempt. The government denied the accusation, claiming that the former leader's convoy had fired at police during an anti-drug patrol.
After the issue of the arrest warrant, Morales took refuge in the central coca-growing province of Chapare in central Bolivia, protected by his supporters. His supporters demanded an end to the “judicial persecution” against Morales and threatened to intensify anti-government actions.
As protests and blockades by Morales supporters calling for Arce’s resignation and the dismissal of the case against Morales continued on 30/10/2024, President Arce appealed to the Bolivian people to end the roadblocks. According to Arce, they are exacerbating the already precarious economic condition and shortages of fuel and basic goods, and have already caused more than $1.7 billion in economic losses. Arce warned that if the blockades and unrest persist, the government “will exercise its constitutional powers to safeguard the interests of the Bolivian people.” Morales reacted by criticizing Arce on X for threatening the people instead of seeking dialogue to resolve the conflict. On 03/11/2024 Morales announced that he is carrying out a hunger strike until Arce agrees to dialogue.
Analysis:
Ahead of the presidential elections of 2025, Bolivia has been strangled for months by a deep political crisis. Tensions arise from the rivalry and competition for the leadership and candidacy of the traditional leftist Movement for Socialism (MAS) party between President Luis Arce and his predecessor and mentor Evo Morales (2006-2019), a former coca-grower and first Bolivian indigenous President.
In its recent past, Bolivia has already experienced an escalation of turmoil and political crises. In 2019, 21 days of uninterrupted protests rocked the country following the disputed elections that initially saw Morales' reelection. Due to alleged election fraud, the Organization of American States (OAS) opened an investigation against irregularities in favor of Morales. Forced to step down and replaced by an opposition senator, Áñez, after the election was annulled, Morales called the crisis a coup and incited massive protests by his supporters, which were violently suppressed by the interim government, resulting in dozens of deaths. The Áñez government was later accused of human rights violations, including the arbitrary detention of 600 protesters.
Arce, who was Morales' finance minister for 11 years, replaced the MAS leader in the 2020 elections while Morales was exiled in Argentina and barred from running following allegations of electoral fraud and incitation of violence in the post-election period. In the 2020 elections, Arce garnered 54 percent support of the vote, initially giving the perception that his presidency would ensure continuity to Morales' MAS political agenda and bring stability. However, as the policies of Arce’s administration deviated from Morales' political project, tensions arose among the former allies. Upon Morales' return in 2021, the rivalry between MAS prominent figures created a deep rift in the ruling party that split into MAS-Morales and MAS-Arce.
In September 2023, Morales announced his intention to run for re-election in 2025 as the MAS candidate. However, in December 2023, the Constitutional Court prohibited his reelection. The court ruled that no more than two terms as president, consecutive or discontinuous, are allowed. Morales, who rejected the legitimacy of the court, already tried to bypass the constitution in 2019 by seeking a fourth presidential term.
The peak of the MAS’s internal political conflict was reached in June 2024, following an attempted coup by dissident armed forces dissidents led by General Zúñiga. Following the foiled coup, former President Morales accused his political rival of orchestrating a “self-coup” to gain sympathy from the population. Arce does not enjoy much popular support in the country and is facing simmering discontent and criticism over the ongoing economic crisis, which raises inflation and debts, and increases fuel, basic goods and US dollar shortages. Morales’ supporters consider Arce responsible for the collapse of previously one of South America's most successful economies.
On the other hand, Morales enjoys great popularity among substantial segments of the population, particularly among coca farmers, unions, and indigenous groups. During his tenure, Morales has been committed to improving socioeconomic conditions and promoting the political inclusion of marginalized segments of the population. His policies focused on the creation of social programs but also on economic growth. The left-wing President nationalized Bolivia's oil and gas industries, limiting the influence of foreign companies and governments, especially the US. According to the International Monetary Fund, Bolivia's GDP grew by 4.8 percent per year from 2004 to 2017 under Morales’ leadership, while the percentage of the population living in extreme poverty was more than halved.
Morales has been accused by the opposition of growing authoritarianism, corruption, pressure on media and the judiciary, persecution of political opponents, and harming the environment. Controversies arose from Morales’ attempt to hold on to power for a fourth term and, more recently, his attempt to be reelected in 2025 despite a veto by the Constitutional Court.
The dispute between Arce and Morales escalated into a conflict between supporters of the two MAS factions. Morales' supporters promptly responded to their leader's appeals, wreaking havoc in the country. While roadblocks and clashes persist in several areas of the country, political instability and the social unrest are paralyzing the government's ability to address the country’s economic collapse and led to a security crisis. This exacerbates an even more severe economic crisis.
Conclusion:
Five years after the political crisis of 2019, Bolivia is once again on the brink of a political and security crisis that the Arce government seems unable to curb on its own. If Arce and Morales fail to reach a dialogue, political polarization and nationwide protests will likely increase and persist at least until the elections in 2025, given the overwhelming support that former leader Morales enjoys. The former indigenous President's determination to participate in the 2025 elections, in spite of his exclusion from the MAS party and veto to run, will surely open new controversies and institutional challenges in the coming months. Meanwhile, the unrest has already brought the Bolivian economy to its knees and anti-government frustration over economic hardship is growing; prolonged protests will certainly result in a dramatic worsening of the economic crisis. The economic and political ramifications of the ongoing crisis in Bolivia could have serious short-term as well as long-term repercussions for the country and the region, with even the possibility of an open conflict between pro-Morales protesters and the Arce government’s security forces.
