Intel Brief: Indications of Independence Day unrest in Tanzania

Date: 02/12/2025 (11:30 UTC+01:00)

Where? 

• Tanzania: Dar es Salaam, Arusha, Mwanza, Dodoma (and possibly more cities)

What happened? 

• Recently, it was announced that Tanzania will cancel its celebration for its 64th Independence Day, held on 09/12/2025. The official reason is that the money for the festivities is needed to rebuild infrastructure damaged during the post-election protests that swept the nation in early November.

• The decision appears to have deeper political motivations beyond the stated budgetary concerns. Significant national anniversaries often serve as catalysts for political activism and civil resistance movements. This pattern was evident during Kenya's Saba Saba (July 7th) protests earlier this year, during which a historic commemoration date became a focal point for mass demonstrations. 

• A similar scenario is plausible in Tanzania, which continues to grapple with the aftermath of severe post-election violence. Following widespread protests against President Samia Suluhu Hassan's electoral victory - widely viewed as fraudulent - security forces responded with lethal force. According to some estimates, hundreds of people were killed during the unrest.

• A trusted internal source indicates that the government plans to impose a new curfew beginning on 5 December, lasting for roughly five days, coinciding with a planned internet shutdown aimed at inhibiting coordination of Independence Day demonstrations.

• Given the government’s demonstrated willingness to use force to pre-empt political mobilization and its extensive reliance on internet disruption and curfews during the post-election unrest, such measures should be considered a credible scenario.

• Building on that, authorities are also likely to deploy significant security forces to key arteries, junctions, and protest hotspots, including Morogoro Road, city-centre districts, and approaches to Julius Nyerere International Airport (DAR/HTDA) beginning several days before 9 December.

• Due to the expected heavy security presence, large-scale protests in Tanzania’s cities are considered unlikely, as the police will move quickly to disperse crowds and use force if necessary.

• The possibility of widespread unrest across multiple districts, accompanied by multi-day communication disruptions, is less likely but remains a credible scenario given the intensity of public anger and the government’s sensitivity to international scrutiny.

  
  

For staff residing in Dar es Salaam, Arusha, Mwanza, and Dodoma, the most significant risks between 5–10 December will stem from transit disruptions, disproportionate security responses, short-notice curfews, and loss of communication capability. Keep into account that stocks in supermarkets and other shops might run out; keep an emergency supply of food and water available. Don't save photos or videos of the recent violence in Tanzania, as it may be considered a criminal offence

For more information, contact Dyami at info@dyami.services