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July 2024
Violent clashes in the South China Sea are raising tensions in the region. On 20th June, photos emerged of China Coast Guard personnel threatening Filipino crew with knives and spears and attempting to board resupply vessels at the contested Second Thomas Shoal, a reef in the South China Sea. Later that month, the Philippines ambassador to the US warned of the risks of a regional war. As the Philippines has a mutual defense treaty with the US, the provocations raise the potential of a new flashpoint between the US and China.
The Second Thomas Shoal lies in the South China Sea, one of the world’s busiest waterways, with over $3 trillion in world trade passing through to China’s mega ports every year. Over the past decade, China has sought greater control over the waterway and kicked off territorial disputes with Vietnam and the Philippines to assert control. However, the new approach adopted by the Philippines to improve its naval defense capabilities in the South China Sea is a turning point in the security of the region. The Philippines is pursuing various security relationships with states other than the US to improve its position.
Repeated Clashes in the South China Sea
The Second Thomas Shoal is a submerged reef in the Spratly Islands to the southeast of the South China Sea. China, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam all claim sovereignty over the island. Located 200 km west of the Palawan island of the Philippines, it is around 20 km in length and is largely submerged at high tide. There are no permanent features or infrastructure. However, a small contingent of Philippine Navy personnel have been stationed there on a rusting WW2-era warship, the Sierra Madre since 1999. They have been resupplied every year to maintain the territorial claim for the Philippines.
Beijing is determined to prevent the resupply missions from happening. China’s Coast Guard has used military-grade lasers aimed at Filipino ships, almost blinding one Filipino fishermen, ramming and water cannons. On June 15, 2024, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) implemented a new policy authorizing the Chinese coast guard to detain foreigners crossing into waters claimed by China, potentially arresting Filipino citizens.
China’s actions against the Philippines have raised the risks of a US-China confrontation over the Second Thomas Shoal. The US is obliged to come to the defense of the Philippines in the 1951 mutual defense treaty, which is frequently supported by the Biden administration. While Philippine president Ferdinand Marcos said that China’s actions do not yet warrant invoking the pact, he stated that the death of a Filipino in SCS clashes would be ‘very close’ to an act of war.
Significance of the Second Thomas Shoal
The Second Thomas Shoal lies in the SCS, a key strategic waterway in Asia’s geopolitics. Beijing has claimed sovereignty over the SCS based on the “nine-dash line”, a claim which puts it at odds with other states in the region. There are vast untapped oil and gas reserves in the SCS, estimated at over 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 billion cubic feet of gas. It is vital for international commerce as over one-third of all maritime traffic passes to the largest ports in the world. China’s Navy has built and maintained several island reefs with air bases and a host of missile arsenals, aircraft hangers and surveillance systems to project power into the SCS.
The Philippines sees the Second Thomas Shoal as key to its own sovereignty claims, given that it lies within its Exclusive Economic Zone. Following years of the dispute, the Philippines took the contested claim to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea which ruled in favor of the Philippines in 2016. The Philippines sees defending the Second Thomas Shoal as its territorial claim and standing up for international law. There are also concerns that Beijing will aim to take the shoal and put air bases and surveillance systems as the Chinese Navy did with the Mischief Reef, located 40 miles away.
Washington sees defending territorial claims of the Philippines as key to maintaining its security role in Asia, especially as other claimant states are looking to the US to hedge against China’s actions in the SCS. The Biden administration wants to maintain the idea of a ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’, where ships are free to travel in the SCS. At the same time, the US is seeking to avoid confrontation that would invoke military support for the Philippines.
Why the Philippines?
Vietnam has been fast developing new islands in its SCS claims, though there are no notable outposts or infrastructure as yet. Malaysia and Indonesia have also been developing offshore oil and gas resources in China’s claimed territory, with Beijing largely not offering a response as harsh as toward the Philippines. However, China has decided to target the Philippines, who is a US treaty ally, and potentially send a signal to other states to undermine the US as a security provider in the region.
China’s blockade of Philippine reinforcements may be an attempt to prevent the Philippines from becoming closer to the US. China’s defense ministry and People’s Daily regularly condemn the stationing of US military troops and missile deployments to the northern Philippine island Luzon, which lies 500 km from Taiwan. In April 2024, the US sent new missile launchers capable of targeting ships at sea to Luzon. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said that the country could be pulled into a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. China’s view is that the Philippines is merely a part of a broader geopolitical strategy to contain China.
China has repeatedly stated that it objects to US security arrangements near its territorial waters. Chinese diplomats have accused the US of establishing a series of alliance systems aimed at introducing an Asia-Pacific version of NATO, claiming that this is an attempt to encircle China. Beijing also views the Aukus alliance between the US, Australia and Britain as an organization to confront China. The Philippines increasing cooperation with US allies in the region is therefore seen as another geopolitical move to confront China’s interests in the region.
New regional security ties
The Philippines has also started to develop ties outside of the US partnership to conduct security arrangements with other regional powers. Japan and the Philippines will soon announce a reciprocal access agreement allowing their troops to enter each other’s territory for joint exercises. Japan has already supplied patrol ships to the Philippines Coast Guard to defend its territorial sovereignty. Japanese prime minister, Fumio Kishida, has agreed to provide new coastal surveillance radar systems through grants. Japan’s patrol vessels, defense equipment and radar to strengthen Philippines’ law enforcement capability.
The Philippines has also developed closer ties with Australia and India. Australia shares the Philippines concerns over China’s growing military assertiveness in SCS and has become a significant military partner in the Philippines naval capabilities. They regularly conduct joint amphibious landings. India’s growing geopolitical competition with China has prompted India to forge closer ties with the Philippines and Taiwan. While their collaboration is not as significant compared with other powers, their combined naval exercises through the South China Sea indicate their growing cooperation in the maritime field.
Risks of escalation
While it is unlikely that there will be open conflict between the Philippines and China, there is a chance of a crisis if a red line is crossed. Even with low-level conflict this raises the risk that the mutual defense treaty with the US will be invoked. US president Biden states that the treaty also covers Filipino ships and personnel. China has increased the number of ships around the Second Thomas Shoal and is monitoring other states in the SCS. There are some signs that Beijing and Manila are willing to talk with each other to resolve the crisis through dialogue, perhaps through a shared cooperation agreement on oil exploration. Yet the low-level conflict is remaking security ties in Asia and offering new regional security arrangements against China’s growing assertiveness.
