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Intel Report: Rising Violence and Political Challengers Threaten Colombian President Petro’s Peace Aspirations

Updated: May 28

Written by Arianna Lucà and Sara Frisan

Edited on the 28/05/2024

 


Date:  27/05/2024               


Where: Colombia

 

Who’s involved: President Petro, Opposition parties and elites, Non-state armed groups (NSAGs)


Introduction: The Colombian President and his administration is facing a number of challenges that could undermine its ambitious political plan for stabilization and peace in Colombia. Gustavo Petro, a former member of M-19 left-wing guerrilla group and mayor of Bogota, won the 2022 elections with a progressive political agenda, aiming to reform health, pension and labor systems. He pledged to transform Colombia by promoting socio-economic justice and peace in a country scarred by decades of violence, corruption, and inequality. However, due to a combination of political and economic setbacks, the first left-wing President in Colombian history is struggling to implement his socio-economic reform project and faces stiff resistance from the political opposition and broad segments of the Colombian population.


Political Crisis and Mass Protests

  • Petro’s coalition, the Historic Pact for Colombia, does not have a majority in both chambers of Congress, which is making it difficult to achieve his political objectives. In recent months, most of Petro's socio-economic reforms, including the health reform proposal, were rejected by the opposition. In March 2024, Petro blamed the traditionally conservative institutions and legislature for obstructing his social reform agenda and declared his intention to amend the 1991 Colombian Constitution to spur social reforms and address the country's inequalities.  


  • Since Petro took office, demonstrations have been regular, although they have intensified since the President proposed the constitutional amendment. In April 2024, hundreds of thousands of people marched in the streets of Bogota, Medellin, Cali and Barranquilla to protest against Petro’s government economic and social reforms. Petro reacted to the protests by calling them a “soft coup” organized by conservative elites to obstruct reforms. Yet, also some of his supporters took part in the demonstrations, frustrated by the lack of tangible improvements in their socio-economic conditions.


  • Tensions between the opposition and Petro’s coalition have also worsened, due to allegations of corruption and illegal financing of Petro's 2022 election campaign. Following the scandal, on May 8, 2024 two out of nine magistrates in Colombia’s National Electoral Council requested an investigation of Petro’s 2022 electoral campaign over alleged financing violations.


  • Despite Petro's attempts to distance himself from the scandal, the Colombian House of Representatives recently accepted a proposal by the far-right Democratic Center party to suspend "debate and vote on all ordinary and statutory bills and draft legislation" submitted by the Petro administration. The suspension threatens to sink the government's pension reform project, preliminary approved in late May 2024, which was due to become law by June 20. In response, Petro denounced the "structural corruption" of Colombia's institutions. 


Peace Process’ Setbacks

  • On top of the political crisis, in the past few months, the Petro’s administration peace process known as “Paz Total” (Total Peace), a plan to achieve peace by conducting talks with all the armed groups in the country, has been facing numerous challenges and setbacks. After six rounds of talks, several negotiations and ceasefires with armed groups have stalled, and levels of violence and  conflict remain high in the country. Several attacks and massacres by armed groups targeting civilians, indigenous leaders and security officials were reported in rural areas in recent weeks.


  • Despite the Colombian government and the ELN reaching an agreement on one of the key issues of the peace process on May 25, 2024 the situation remains uncertain. On May 6, the National Liberation Army (ELN), the oldest insurgent group active in Colombia and one of the main interlocutors in the negotiations, announced that it would resume abductions, as the government has failed to fulfill agreements taken during talks. The rebel group has criticized the delays in the creation of a multi-donor peace fund to support the group’s livelihood. In response, the government clarified that the fund was never intended as an incentive to halt abductions but to strengthen efforts in the peace process. More friction is likely to occur in the future rounds of talks, as President Gustavo Petro’s administration made it clear that the ELN suspension of kidnapping is an imperative condition for reaching an agreement.  


  • The end of the kidnapping suspension is the latest tension between the government and ELN. In April 2024, the ELN's Central Command had frozen talks with institutions following parallel negotiations between the government and some of the ELN’s factions active in the Nariño department in the west of Colombia. The ELN blamed the government for carrying on these negotiations with smaller groups “behind the back” of the Central Command. Following the announcement of the suspension of kidnappings, one of these factions, the ELN Southern Community Front (Frente Comuneros del Sur), announced on May 7, 2024, its split from ELN Central  Command and its willingness to pursue negotiations. 


  • Moreover, negotiations between the government and the EMC (Estado Mayor Central), an organization that encompasses factions of the former FARC that rejected the 2016 peace agreement, are currently experiencing setbacks. In March 2024, due to the EMC’s attacks targeting indigenous leaders and police officers, the government partially suspended the ceasefire with the EMC in Cauca, Valle del Cauca, and Nariño. Increasing tensions with the government led to splits within the EMC; some blocs are willing to continue dialogue with the government, while others refuse any negotiation until a new national ceasefire is established. In the wake of strained relations with the government, the group escalated violence against security forces. On May 20, 2024, attacks by the EMC militia group claimed at least 4 lives in southwestern Colombia. 


Analysis: 

  • Beside the initial popular favor, President Petro has not yet advanced on his radical reform agenda and the President’s approval rates have been decreasing drastically over the past year. Several factors have exacerbated his recent unpopularity such as political scandals, rejection of reforms due to limited influence in Congress, economic challenges, security concerns and backsliding in the peace process. 


  • The lack of improvement in the socio-economic condition of citizens is fostering growing dissatisfaction and distrust of Petro's work. Due to the opposition’s holdout, the President is seemingly unable to gain the support needed to push through the pledged social reforms. More protests and social unrest are likely. 


  • Currently, Petro’s government is under mounting pressure due to the series of scandals involving corruption allegations, which have triggered a drop in the President’s popularity. Moreover, his proposal of constitutional changes is raising concerns not only from the opposition, alarmed that Petro is seeking to ensure himself the possibility of staying in power after the end of his term in 2026, but also from elites and lobbies. Business groups have warned the President that a constituent assembly could disadvantage businesses and investors to the country. Although Petro claimed that the proposed changes will not affect the independence and integrity of the Constitution, the opposition believes it is a strategy to divert attention from the failures of his administration. However, a constitutional reform in Colombia would require majority support in Congress, approval of the courts, and a popular referendum. Given the lack of support in Congress and its declining popularity, Petro's proposal is unlikely to get the necessary support. 


  • Moreover, failures in implementing Paz Total's policy are further discrediting the image and agenda of President Petro. Indeed, the “Paz Total” was a central pillar of Petro’s election campaign. Unlike previous peace processes, it envisaged the opportunity to set a legal framework for the government, and carry out simultaneous negotiations with all armed groups active in the territory, while finally fulfilling commitments made in the 2016 peace agreement with FARC. Yet despite government negotiations, and ceasefire agreements with several groups, levels of violence and conflict are not decreasing in the country, with the rate of abductions rising, frequent clashes between security forces and non-state armed groups, and a worsened security situation in some rural areas.


  • Petro’s hope to hold multiple negotiations with the different groups at the same time is proving difficult. The latest setbacks in the peace talks, such as the fragmentation of the EMC and the ELN's decision to resume kidnappings, are a clear demonstration of the far-reaching complexity of the Paz Total project. Petro's strategy is not achieving the expected results. Nearly two years into negotiations, the peace process is unable to curb the violence in the country. Clashes between armed groups and security forces and violence against civilians have been frequent in recent months. So far a stable and lasting scenario of Paz Total, as envisioned by President Petro, is unlikely to be achieved in the short term.


Conclusion:

Despite early public support, President Petro's progressive campaign for socio-economic reforms and peace is failing to achieve the promised outcomes. The lack of a majority in Congress and fierce resistance from the opposition to his policies are preventing the pledged reforms. Almost two years into his term, the Petro administration faces a volatile and uncertain scenario, with the President's reputation and credibility undermined by scandals and failures. Moreover, the government's ongoing political crisis and fractures are reflected in the intermittent and partial peace negotiations with major armed groups in Colombia. Intra-group splits, setbacks in peace talks, and the increased violence targeting population in rural areas make the achievement of the long-awaited Paz Total quite far-fetched. To prevent further escalation of violence and displacement crises, it is imperative for the government to develop a strategy to ensure the security and address the multiple challenges of conflict-affected communities. However, Petro's government seems to lack the necessary means and ability to improve neither the unstable political scenario nor the volatile security situation in Colombia, at least in the short term. 



 


 



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