Intel Brief: Yet Another (Thwarted) Military Coup in Mali

casper4871
Aug 12
3 min read

Date: 12/08/2025 (14:00 GMT+2)

Where? Mali

What happened?

On 11/08/2025, it was reported that Malian authorities had arrested two dozen soldiers accused of plotting to overthrow the ruling junta.
The arrests include several high-ranking officials, such as General Abass Dembélé, former governor of the Mopti region of the country and a respected military officer and General Nema Sagara, one of the few high-ranking female officers in the armed forces.
The suspected coup attempt comes amid an increasingly oppressive political climate. On 10/07/2025, a bill was signed into law granting General Assimi Goïta, who leads Mali’s junta, a new five-year presidential mandate, renewable “as many times as necessary until the country is pacified”, which essentially created the legal basis for Goïta to rule for life.
This followed an unprecedented political crackdown in the country. On 13/05/2025, Mali’s military leadership formally dissolved all the political parties. Just one week earlier, on 07/05/2025, the junta suspended all political activities across the country as a response to a protest planned on 09/05/2025 calling for the return to constitutional rule and demanding presidential elections.
Amidst the political turmoil, Mali continued to face grave security challenges, mostly coming from an insurgency which has gripped the country since 2012 by Islamist groups such as Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and also by Touareg rebels, who united under a group named the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA).
On 01/06/2025, JNIM carried out an attack on a Malian army base, with reports estimating the number of casualties between 30 and 100. On 02/06/2025, the same group attacked the Malian city of Timbuktu, with reports stating “dozens of soldiers killed”. On 05/06/2025, JNIM again attacked two army outposts in Mahou and Tessit, leading to more soldiers killed. On 13/06/2025, FLA fighters clashed with the Malian army and Russian forces supporting them between Aguelhok and Kidal, leading to dozens killed. On 01/07/2025, the city of Kidal was attacked and ransacked by JNIM.

Conclusion

After Assimi Goïta took over power in May 2021, his own regime now finds itself in an increasingly difficult position as it is struggling to contain the rampant security threats in his country’s territory, all while relying on repression to maintain control, much like his predecessors. Many actors who once supported his rise to power now find themselves considering alternative options - this thwarted coup was merely a symptom of those underlying shortcomings. Taken together, these things paint a bleak picture for a country whose regime needs military cohesion to maintain control.

Moreover, there appear to be two main scenarios for the current situation. The first one is that Mali will face enduring destabilization as military cohesion and the legitimacy of the junta continue to erode, creating fertile ground for possibly another coup. The other scenario involves ruling leader Goïta tightening his grip on power even further and centralizing it through repression, purges and loyalty-based promotions to secure his position after this latest foiled coup attempt. This might buy him time, but risks exacerbating the problems that initially led to this failed coup. This will only accelerate the instability in Mali - the instability that his rule meant to stop.

This is a shortened version of a more elaborate report.

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