Date: 13/03/2025
Location: South Sudan; Uganda
South Sudan - context:
South Sudan achieved independence in 2011, becoming the world's newest country after years of struggle with Sudan. Yet its early years as a nation have been troubled by civil conflict, government instability, and economic challenges.
The political scene revolves around President Salva Kiir and his former vice president Riek Machar. Their power struggle has intensified ethnic tensions, particularly between Dinka and Nuer communities. Kiir is from the Dinka community, while Machar is a Nuer. From 2013 to 2020, civil war claimed over 400,000 lives and forced millions to flee their homes.
Though a peace agreement in 2020 created a unity government, the relationship between Kiir and Machar remains strained, putting the peace process at risk. Recent developments have heightened tensions across the young nation, suggesting the civil war might not be over yet.
Latest developments:
On 14/02/2025, tensions between Kiir and Machar escalated as clashes broke out between the South Sudanese army and an "armed youth militia," as described by Human Rights Watch in the Upper Nile province of South Sudan
On 04/03/2025, the defense forces of Sudan liquidated Tor Gile Thoan Meen, commander of the ‘Nuer White Army’ militia.
On 04/03/2025, the ‘White Army Militia’, composed of the Nuer people, claimed control of Nasir, a town in South Sudan’s Upper Nile province close to Ethiopia, after clashing with government forces. That same day, Machar’s top allies were arrested in Juba, the capital, as a response to the developments in Nasir, threatening the fragile unity government.
On 06/03/2025, Kenyan President William Ruto engaged with both Kiir and Machar, expressing his support for a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
On 07/03/2025, a UN-helicopter evacuating government soldiers, Russian crew and civilians was shot down by the White Army Militia close to Nasir, killing more than 20, including a general and UN crew member. Reportedly, this was a retaliation for the killing of Tor Gile Thoan Meen.
On 08/03/2025, the US ordered its non-essential personnel to leave the country, citing the deteriorating security situation.
On 11/03/2025, Uganda deployed its special forces to South Sudan. Kampala’s military chief announced on Tuesday that the troops had been sent to help ‘secure’ Juba. In a post on X, he mentioned: “We only recognize ONE President of South Sudan, H.E. Salva Kiir [...] Any move against him is a declaration of war against Uganda!”.
On 12/03/2025, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), a bloc of eight East African nations, called for the South Sudanese government to release the officials who were detained at the beginning of March and restore “standard security arrangements” to prevent escalating factional tensions.
Analysis
South Sudan continues to struggle with severe interethnic conflict, primarily between the Dinka and Nuer, two of the country's largest ethnic groups.
In 2018, the Revitalised Agreement on Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) was signed, marking the end of a 5-year civil war between the factions of Kiir and Machar. The peace deal aimed to unify armies, draft a new constitution, hold elections, conduct a census, and disarm armed groups, but none of these reforms have been implemented. The peace in South Sudan has been fragile since its inception and as fighting erupted in Upper Nile province on 14/02/2025, worries of another civil war increased.
Sudan’s conflict has deepened South Sudan’s crisis by cutting off its main revenue source—oil exports—after fighting damaged the pipeline near Khartoum in 2024. This fiscal strain has weakened Kiir’s patronage network, fueling unrest and making South Sudan more vulnerable to external interference. Burhan’s military is suspected of arming Nuer militias to destabilize Kiir and reclaim border regions, while the RSF, backed by the UAE, has drawn Juba closer, worsening tensions.
At the moment, hostilities are confined to the north-eastern province, but violence is likely to escalate. The Nuer White Army appears to be poorly trained and lightly armed, primarily equipped with Kalashnikov rifles, a few light machine guns, and a limited number of technicals, such as pick-ups with mounted machine guns. In contrast, the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) are better equipped, possessing more advanced weaponry and limited air support. However, despite their advantage, the SSPDF is limited by the UN Security Council’s ongoing arms embargo on South Sudan, which prohibits the import of weapons. This embargo, aimed at curbing violence and ensuring stability, has impacted the country’s military capabilities, preventing both the government and opposition forces from acquiring new weapons.
Uganda has significant interests in the South Sudan conflict. President Museveni maintains a close alliance with South Sudan and a personal relationship with President Kiir, providing support to South Sudan's government during the civil war. The Ugandan government has experienced recurring tensions with Sudan, with both countries seemingly using South Sudan as a battleground for proxy conflicts, evidenced by their support of opposing factions during the civil war. Additionally, South Sudan represents one of Uganda's most important trading partners. As Uganda has reinstated support for President Kiir, it is highly likely that a conflict in South Sudan would include a number of Ugandan troops.
Conclusion
The escalating tensions in South Sudan represent a dangerous deterioration of an already fragile peace agreement. With Uganda's recent military deployment to support President Kiir, the conflict risks expanding into a regional conflict involving Sudan, Uganda, and potentially other neighboring states. The arrest of Machar's allies, combined with the Nuer White Army's territorial gains, suggests the unity government may be collapsing. International stakeholders including the UN and regional powers like Kenya are attempting diplomatic interventions, but with limited success thus far. The situation threatens not only South Sudan's stability but potentially regional security across East Africa, especially given Uganda's explicit military commitment to Kiir's government and the ongoing parallel conflict in Sudan.
Airport/Overflight Security:
The situation in South Sudan is unstable and can escalate at any moment.
Juba airport (HJJJ) may be closed at short notice.
The UK, France and Germany advise against overflying South Sudan below FL250 due to the risk by anti-aircraft weaponry.
Air navigation services are suspended above FL245.
We advise against overflying South Sudan.
Ground Security:
The security situation in South Sudan is becoming increasingly unstable, with rising tensions and localised violence in several regions. While the situation has not reached the severity of a full-scale conflict, it is essential to remain vigilant. Avoid travel to South Sudan
For those in South Sudan: exercise extreme caution, avoid unnecessary travel, and stay indoors as much as possible, especially in high-risk areas. Monitor local media and official sources for updates on the security situation and stay informed about any developments. Prioritise personal safety and be prepared for potential evacuations.