Intel Brief: Somalia’s Security Crisis and the Return of Al Shabaab

gregorio46
Jul 18
2 min read

Date: 18/07/2025

(16:30 UTC+2)

Where? Somalia. Hiran; Galgadud; Middle Shabelle; Lower Shabelle; Mogadishu; Lower Juba

What happened?

Since launching a renewed offensive in February 2025, the jihadist group Al Shabaab has made unprecedented gains across central and southern Somalia.
On 18/03/2025, an IED was detonated near Ceel-Gaabta, targeting Somalian President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s convoy shortly after it left the presidential palace Villa Somalia. The explosion destroyed several vehicles and wounded presidential escorts; however, the president was unharmed.
On 16/04/2025, Al Shabaab captured Adan Yabaal in the Middle Shabelle region. This is a symbolic loss for the Somali national government, as the town used to be under Al Shabaab control until it was liberated by the Somalia National Army (SNA) in its 2022 offensive.
On 22/04/2025, it was reported that Turkey, an important security partner for the Somali government, was sending another 500 troops to the country amidst Al Shabaab advances.
On 18/05/2025, a suicide bomb attack killed at least 10 people in the capital, Mogadishu.
On 16/06/2025 Al Shabaab carried out an attack with an explosives-laden vehicle against an AUSSOM convoy, followed by an assault, killing around 20 Ugandan troops, injuring over 40 others according to reports, in one of the deadliest attacks on AUSSOM to date.
On 17/06/2025, Abas Mohamed Hool, a senior Al Shabaab commander, was killed by a SNA attack.
On 30/06/2025, the Somali government announced plans to build a new airport south of Mogadishu in the Middle Shabelle region. The official reason given for this is to ‘decongest’ Aden Adde International Airport (MGQ/HCMM), but another likely reason could be that a new location could be better defendable.
That same day, a SNA offensive killed at least 35 Al Shabaab fighters in the Lower Juba region of the country.
On 03/07/2025, Al Shabaab captured Xagare and Gumare from pro-SNA militias, less than 10km from the strategic town of Moqokori.
On 07/07/2025, Al Shabaab captured Moqokori in the Hiiraan region after several months of clashes using explosives-laden vehicles to initiate the final assault. Dozens were killed, with local government-aligned Macawisley militias fleeing the area. The town is situated along a major roadway connecting the northern and southern areas of the country.
On 09/07/2025, the Jale Siyad military base in Mogadishu suffered a suicide bomber attack, for which Al Shabaab claimed responsibility.
Between 13/07/2025 and 14/07/2025, Al Shabaab captured the town of (Gal) Tardo in Somalia’s Hiiraan region, a key crossroads linking several major urban centers. A Somali Armed Forces spokesperson stated that the fall of Tardo marks part of a broader push toward the capital, Mogadishu, and added that government forces and pro-government militias are preparing a counteroffensive. Tardo is located 170 km away from the Somali capital, Mogadishu.
Also on 14/07/2025, Al Shabaab carried out a bomb attack on Afgoye, west of the capital.

This is a small version of a more elaborate report.

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