Intel Brief: Madagascar's President Flees Country

Date: 13/10/2025 (15:00 UTC+2)

Where? 

• Madagascar; Antananarivo, Toamasina, Antsirabe, Toliara, Antsiranana, Mahajanga

What happened? 

• On 13/10/2025, it was reported that the President of Madagascar, Andry Rajoelina, had been flown out of the country on board a French military aircraft following a deal with President Macron. 

• This latest development follows weeks of civil unrest and protest all over the island nation, with people calling for Rajoelina’s resignation. 

• It all started on 25/09/2025 when protesters, mostly youth, took it to the streets against water and power cuts. However, the protests soon evolved into a wider expression of dissatisfaction with the country’s governance; high unemployment, corruption and prices spiraling out of control while wages stagnate.  

• Following the escalating situation, a curfew was declared in the capital Antananarivo on 26/09/2025. 

• Unrest continued, which prompted Rajoelina to dissolve parliament on 29/09/2025. Protesters were meanwhile calling for his resignation. 

• On 06/10/2025, Rajoelina appointed an army commander, General Ruphin Fortunat Zafisambo as prime minister to restore order in the country, as protests were ongoing for the 12th day in a row. 

• However, this did not help easing tensions in the country. Despite calls for dialogue from the president and his administration, people on the street continue to call for his resignation. 

• On 12/10/2025, it was reported that an elite army unit from the national army of Madagascar CAPSAT had joined the protesters and called for the resignation of Malagasy president Andry Rajoelina. This unit earlier played a vital role in the 2009 Malagasy coup, when it stood by Rajoelina’s side ousting president Marc Ravalomanana. 

• Shortly after the announcement, CAPSAT declared it “took control over the armed forces” - the extent to which they actually exercise control over the state’s security forces remains unclear at the time of writing. CAPSAT soldiers were also reportedly seen escorting protesters in the capital to May 13 square, where most protests are taking place. 

Analysis

• What began as a simple protest for access to clean water and electricity slowly grew into one of the biggest waves of protests that the island nation has endured in years. It also presents the most serious challenge to Andry Rajoelina since he became president in 2019 (Rajoelina has been in power earlier, between 2009 and 2014 as head of the High Transitional Authority following a military-backed outset of Marc Ravalomanana).

• This wave of protests in Madagascar fit into a broader global pattern also observed earlier in, for example, Kenya and Nepal. Young people, connected through social networks, protest against their ruling elite, perceived to be deeply corrupt and responsible for declining living standards and a lack of any real perspective, as many developing economies have also been struggling since covid. 

• Looking back at the period since the protests started in late September, it is clear that Rajoelina was counting on his state security services to crack down on the protesting youth and slowly ‘smoke out’ the protesters in this way. At least 22 people were killed so far during this outburst of violence, according to the United Nations. The appointment of a general as new PM also points to this militarization of governance. 

• The mutiny by the CAPSAT unit marks a turning point. Historically loyal to Rajoelina (they stood on his side during the 2009 coup mentioned earlier), their defection signals a possible collapse of regime cohesion. It is very likely that this was the last straw which prompted him to leave the country. 

• All taken together, the coming period will be crucial for Madagascar and its nearly 32 million citizens. Given the fact that it could be possible that Rajoelina fled the country or considering he could do so later if protests continue to escalate, this could lead to a power vacuum in which civilian governance could break down.

Conclusion

President Andry Rajoelina’s departure from Madagascar aboard a French military aircraft marks the dramatic climax of weeks of escalating unrest. What began as a simple revolt over water and electricity access grew - much like in Kenya or Nepal - into a broader movement challenging the country’s government and leading to the probable collapse of the country’s government. Now, it is likely that the nation will head into a power vacuum. In that scenario, the army could potentially take over power again, as it had done before in 2009. How that will unfold is still hard to gauge. Nonetheless, the coming days will prove to be crucial for the future of the island nation.