Intel Brief: Islamists win ground in Bangladeshi power vacuum

Date: 18/11/2025 (10:45 UTC+01:00)

Where? 

• Bangladesh; South Asia

What happened? 

• On 17/11/2025, former Bangladesh leader Sheikh Hasina was sentenced to death in absentia by a special tribunal in Dhaka for crimes against humanity over her government’s violent crackdown on student-led protests last year. Hasina was convicted of incitement, issuing kill orders and inaction to prevent atrocities during the government crackdown on the student protests. Along with her, her former interior minister, Asaduzzaman Khan, and police chief, Chowdhury Abdullah al-Mamun, were also sentenced. 

• Sheikh Hasina and her party, the Awami League governed Bangladesh dictatorially for 15 years before losing power. Her administration maintained strict control over the country, particularly targeting Islamist groups across the political spectrum, from extremist to moderate factions. For context: approximately 90% of the population identifies as Sunni Muslim. Despite suppressing Islamist political movements, Hasina simultaneously courted religious constituents by permitting the establishment of thousands of unregulated Islamic religious schools and allocating $1 billion for the construction of hundreds of mosques

• Her reign came to an abrupt end in the summer of last year during the July Revolution. The movement originated  to protest against the reinstatement of a civil service quota system. The movement has since been described as the world’s first Gen-Z uprising, now at the heart of protests in countries like Nepal, Indonesia, Madagascar and Mexico.

• The situation quickly escalated after widespread violence by security forces. During what came to be called the July Massacre, between 16/07/2024 and 04/08/2024, around 1500 were killed according to estimates by the UN and Students Against Discrimination (SAD), an organization of student activists that participated in the protests. What started as a protest driven by a general lack of employment prospects grew into a popular mass uprising. 

• On 03/08/2024, in a last resort effort to maintain power, Hasina stated she was ready to listen to the protesters' demands. Mass protests followed, with the protestors refusing to stand down unless Hasina resigned. State-wide “one-demand” (Hasina’s resignation) protests continued throughout the 04/08/2024. On 05/08/2024, Hasina fled to India. In December 2024, the interim government formally requested that India extradite Ms. Hasina back to Bangladesh to face trial. A spokesman for India’s foreign ministry said it had received the request but otherwise had “no comment to offer on this matter”.

• Since 08/08/2024, Bangladesh has been led by an interim government headed by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. Under his reign, the country is again opening up for freedom of speech and attempting to reconstruct its democratic institutions and chart a path forward. To do so, political figures from various factions are collaborating on constitutional reforms designed to support this transition.

• However, the new freedom of speech also gives increasing space to extremist voices once banned under Sheikh Hasina’s rule. For instance, in March of 2025, a girl’s soccer match in the town of Taraganj was almost cancelled after the town’s mosque leader stated that girls should not be allowed to play the sport. People in the village were warned not to attend. 

• Meanwhile, relations between India and Bangladesh soured. On 04/12/2024, in a published YouTube-video, Hasina accused Yunus of being involved in the alleged genocide of Hindus in Bangladesh. More fuel to the fire was added when Bangladeshi authorities arrested a Hindu monk on sedition charges in late November of 2024. Following the arrest, India issued a statement expressing "deep concern" over the arrest and asking Bangladesh to ensure the safety "of Hindus and all minorities".   

• Meanwhile, Muhammad Yunus and his administration have stated they are actively seeking to diversify Bangladesh's alliances. Between 26/03/2025 and 29/03/2025 for instance, Yunus and his entourage visited China. A total of $2.1 billion in Chinese investment was agreed on, as well as an extension of duty-free access for Bangladeshi exports - promoting trade between the two nations.

Analysis and conclusion

The verdict against Bangladesh's long-time leader Sheikh Hasina marks a significant step in the country's history, yet it leaves a fragile power vacuum that the interim government under Muhammad Yunus must navigate carefully. While Yunus attempts to restore freedom of speech after years of repression under the Awami League, this can also be seen as a double-edged sword as Islamist fundamentalists are leveraging it to push for a state more strictly governed by Islamic law, with spokespeople from previously banned parties now openly advocating for constitutional changes that would replace secularism with pluralism as a core national principle. This presents a formidable challenge in a country where about 90% of the 175 million population identifies as Muslim, creating a substantial electorate potentially receptive to a more religiously-driven ideology.

This internal shift carries serious geopolitical implications for South Asia. Should Bangladesh move toward (more) Islamist governance, the regional balance of power could fundamentally change. Bangladesh has historically been a steadfast Indian ally, proven once more by New Delhi's reluctance to extradite Sheikh Hasina. A religious-political transformation in Dhaka toward more Islamist leadership would reshape South Asia's strategic landscape. India would lose a crucial ally and find itself encircled by states where Islamic fundamentalism plays a dominant role in politics - from Pakistan to Afghanistan, and now potentially Bangladesh.

Relations between India and Bangladesh have deteriorated sharply since Sheikh Hasina's sudden downfall. More than a year later, Bangladesh is undergoing a transformation, with Islamist voices gaining greater political space. This development alarms New Delhi, particularly as conditions allegedly worsen for Bangladesh's approximately 13 million Hindus. On the Bangladeshi side, resentment toward India runs deep, with many viewing their neighbor as the primary enabler of Ms. Hasina's semi-authoritarian rule. Building on this popular sentiment and calling for reduced dependency on a single neighbor, Yunus is now courting alternative regional powers. In March this year, Muhammad Yunus led a delegation to China, which has watched the India-Bangladesh rift with considerable interest. As Beijing seeks to counter Indian influence across Asia, it has positioned itself as an attractive alternative partner for Dhaka.

Despite the deepening political rift, India and Bangladesh remain interdependent. Beyond their bilateral trade, the two nations rely on each other for border security, counterterrorism cooperation, energy infrastructure, and the management of regional crises like the Rohingya refugee situation. This mutual dependency makes continued diplomatic engagement essential for both sides. Yet Bangladesh's outreach to other potential partners such as China reflects a strategy to reduce this dependency and gain diplomatic leverage. 

In conclusion, as Bangladesh is looking for its way forward, more conservative Islamist factions - previously banned -  are gaining increasing political influence. Should an Islamist government come to power in Dhaka, it would significantly alter South Asia's political landscape, aligning Bangladesh with other nations in the region, such as Afghanistan, where Islamist influence dominates politics, and Pakistan, where it remains a significant force. Amid this religious-driven transformation, discrimination against religious minorities both outside (Hinduists, Buddhists) and inside (Shia) Islam, may be normalized, reverting the successes of the July Revolution.