Why Travelers in the Gulf Need to Stay Put
- 4 hours ago
- 2 min read
As governments and airlines fail to come to a consensus about evacuation protocols from countries affected by the Iran conflict, it is Dyami’s strong recommendation that travelers based in Gulf States (UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman) should stay put.
There are three main reasons.
1. The threat to Gulf residents is lower than it looks.
Despite highly visible and disruptive strikes on infrastructure such as Dubai Airport or the Crowne Plaza in Bahrain, Iran’s ability to cause widespread casualties in Gulf States is low. Over the four days of the conflict so far, it has expended thousands of missiles and drones, with a strike rate of less than 10 percent. Excluding Israel and US military personnel, which have borne the brunt of the loss of life on the coalition side, fatalities in Gulf States have remained in single-digits.
2. The airport is a worse place to be than your hotel.
As the war continues, even assuming Iran retains deep missile stocks and Gulf interceptor reserves are under pressure, Tehran's ability to materially shift the conflict through conventional strikes diminishes over time. Sustained random attacks on Gulf States would likely trigger Saudi Arabia or the UAE as active belligerents long before they achieved meaningful strategic effect. Thousands of foreign citizens crammed into an airport waiting for evacuation flights makes a far more coherent and appealing target. Furthermore, analysis that the IRGC may have decentralised launch authority to regional commanders, meaning individual strikes may not require central approval, only adds to this fear.
3. Evacuation capacity is finite.
Evacuations are finite resources, especially since only Emirates and Etihad, the UAE’s home airlines, are currently planning any whatsoever. Thousands of people trying to force an early exit creates a logistical "bottleneck" that hampers the movement of high-priority personnel, including essential medical staff, technical recovery teams, and diplomatic security details, whose presence is required to maintain the very infrastructure residents rely on for safety. A premature rush to the gates by non-essential personnel compromises the duty of care for those most at risk. Until a stable air corridor is established and verified by multiple intelligence sources, staying put ensures that these channels remain clear for those whose extraction is a matter of immediate life or death.
