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Intel Brief: Armenia Azerbaijan Aviation Security


 

Date: 20/09/2023

Where:

  • Armenia and Azerbaijan




Who’s involved:

  • Armenian government, Azeri government, Ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, Russian government, Turkish government.


What happened?

  • On 20/09/2023, peace talks between the ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijan will take place on 21/09/2023 in the Azerbaijani city of Yevlakh.

  • On 20/09/2023, An official ceasefire agreement was reached by the Azerbaijan authorities and ethnic Armenians with the help of Russian peacekeepers.

  • On 19/09/2023, The Azerbaijan authorities officially launched their military offensive in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Close to 100 people have been said to be killed and the Russian peacekeepers are evacuating around 2000 civilians out of the region.

  • Azerbaijan has conducted military operations in the Nagorno-Karabakh region after peace talks have failed. Additionally, for the past couple of months, Azeri state media has repeatedly depicted Armenia as ‘western Azerbaijan.’

Analysis:

  • Even though a cease-fire in the Nagorno-Karabakh region is now officially in place as of 20/09/2023 0900 GMT, the situation is still very volatile and it is therefore still recommended to keep avoiding the airspace above the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Routing via Georgia and Waypoint ADEKI is preferable instead.

  • The chance of a full-scale conflict between the two nations is still probable. Yesterday’s operation could have been an attempt by Azerbaijan to drag Armenia into a conflict. Now that Armenia has refrained from engaging so far, Azerbaijan could seek other ways to achieve this goal. This would give Azerbaijan a chance to connect to their Exclave Nakchivan.

  • If a full-scale conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan breaks out in the region, air travel will be severely affected, as it would be unsafe to travel anywhere near the territories of Armenia or Azerbaijan. This would close yet another option for commercial aviation between Europe and Asia.


 
20230920 Armenia-Azerbaijan intel-brief
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