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Date:  02/09/2024 Where :  France Who’s involved :   Pavel Durov (Telegram CEO/Founder) French Authorities The broader intelligence community What happened? Pavel Durov , the founder and CEO of the social media and messaging platform, Telegram , is currently facing significant legal challenges in France.  Durov  was initially detained at Le Bourget Airport near Paris on August 24, 2024 . On August 28, 2024 , he was formally charged with several serious offenses, including complicity in illegal activities facilitated through Telegram . The specific charges against Durov  include: Complicity in Managing an Online Platform for Illegal Activities:  This includes accusations that Telegram has been used to facilitate the distribution of child sexual abuse material and drug trafficking. Refusal to Comply with Legal Requests:   Durov  has been charged with refusing to share information or documents with French authorities when required by law, which is seen as obstructing justice. Money Laundering:  This charge relates to allegations that Telegram has been involved in financial transactions that may have violated money laundering regulations. Criminal Association:  This charge suggests that Durov  is being implicated in a broader network of criminal activities facilitated through the platform. Providing Cryptology Services Without Prior Declaration:   Durov  is also charged with offering encryption services through Telegram without adhering to the necessary legal declarations required by French law. He is required to remain in France and posted a €5 million bail under the condition that he must report to a police station twice a week. The case has been highly controversial throughout multiple domains of the security industry , and has led to discourse of mixed productivity, but also a massive spread of misinformation and disinformation. Telegram  is utilized heavily by criminal elements, law enforcement, military personnel, and investigators in most security fields. Analysis Telegram is a messaging service that functions very similarly to WhatsApp, with a greater emphasis on users being able to broadcast announcements to publicly visible channels. It is globally the third most popular of such services, just behind Facebook Messenger, with nearly 1 billion users.  Telegram is extremely popular in eastern Europe. It has arguably become the most important line of communication between the public and combatants in Ukraine. Telegram  distinguishes itself by having an option to engage in “secret chats” that are allegedly end-to-end encrypted while still using the same account as one’s broadcast channel. This means that the Telegram  service itself is not supposed to be able to see what’s discussed between users in “secret chats”. WhatsApp , Facebook Messenger , and Signal  have this option enabled by default in Europe . Telegram   does not have end-to-end encryption enabled by default. Being able to pivot from these private chats to public channels is part of the appeal for groups that want to maintain a level of privacy while still attracting a public audience. This is why Telegram is the preferred messaging service for criminal and paramilitary organizations. Intelligence professionals routinely monitor Telegram , as it offers unique insight into military , criminal , and extremist  activity. Competitor, Signal ,  is strictly end-to-end encrypted , and therefore cannot be found criminally liable in similar situations. Concerns have been raised that this could be threatened based on precedent set during Durov ’s upcoming trial. The arrest has prompted an extremely strong backlash within the intelligence and security communities, with many in favor of Durov ’s arrest, and others decrying it as a point of major privacy and civil liberties concern. Others are cautious of threats to Telegram ’s existence, as it would remove a major primary intelligence source. Some defenders of Durov  argue that his arrest could set a dangerous precedent where platform operators are held criminally responsible for user-generated content, potentially stifling freedom of expression by forcing platforms to over-censor to avoid liability. This argument has been taken up by Elon Musk , whose own platform, X, was recently banned in Brazil for related reasons. Many of the arguments have ignored the fact that the evidence being presented by the French government have come from the unencrypted public chat rooms  hosted by various threat actors. Under current regulations in most EU countries, these are not protected, and are subject to cooperation by the platform owner, as they can access the unencrypted information. Telegram has refused its opportunity to join the Child Sexual Abuse Material (CSAM) reporting agreement known as the Tech Coalition. It’s a subset of the WePROTECT Global Alliance, which includes platform owners Google, Microsoft, Meta (Facebook, WhatsApp), X corp (Twitter), Apple, Amazon, Snap Inc. (Snapchat), TikTok, and LinkedIn. Durov’s rights since his arrest have also curiously been championed by the Russian government, who Durov, himself has been fleeing since 2014. In 2018, Russia attempted to block Telegram after Durov refused to comply with demands to hand over encryption keys. Despite the ban, Telegram continued to function in Russia due to the platform’s use of various technical workarounds, and the ban was unexpectedly lifted in 2020. Durov has publicly stated that no concessions had been made to the government. Conclusion Despite the concerns voiced by the intelligence and security communities,  Pavel Durov ’s situation is grounded in serious allegations that, for the time being, don’t have to put the government’s actions at odds with privacy rights or the legality of end-to-end encryption. While Durov ’s stated stance regarding the management of Telegram  is one of “privacy first”, it’s also led to accusations of negligence, particularly in not taking adequate measures to prevent the misuse of the platform for criminal purposes. The French government’s actions appear to be legally justified under current laws, particularly concerning unencrypted public channels. The bigger civil rights question demanded of this case is whether or not platform owners should be liable for what is posted on their platform. If the cases go to trial, it will be crucial to watch for its potential influence on other platforms and the broader tech landscape.

Written by Paula Boden Indonesia faces severe hazards such as rising sea levels, extreme heat, and natural disasters. As a reaction, the Indonesian government has initiated mega-development projects, such as relocating the capital from Jakarta to Nusantara. However, these governance strategies are not always effective, especially for the least privileged. This, in turn, leads to radical Islamist and hard-line religious-conservative groups exploiting and utilizing the situational distress caused by climate change to infiltrate and recruit people for their cause. The risk of linked climate change/rising radicalism extends beyond Indonesia, likely affecting the broader ASEAN region. Consequently, for effective (inter)national and also regional cooperation, climate change needs to be recognized as an underlying risk for rising radicalism to successfully integrate preventive action into counter-radicalism strategies. Introduction Extreme heat, mass floods, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions in Indonesia cause an increase of mental stress, physical loss of homes and more deaths to come. Indonesia is facing an unprecedented catastrophe on multiple levels due to climate change. The link between climate change and (in)security has already been the focus of several investigations. Especially in the case of Indonesia, rising sea levels and extreme heat put the population at high risk of food and water scarcity, displacement, and weakening economic stability. Considering that hidden insecurities related to climate change such as mental distress and anxiety are added to the physical disappearance of land and homes, climate change can fuel the rise of religious radicalism.  With the President-elect Prabowo taking office in October 2024, the potential rise of hard-line religious radicalism in Indonesia needs to be considered more seriously. Prabowo, a former lieutenant general and in 2014 Jokowi’s presidential opponent, is feared to align with radical groups due to his past associations with religious hardliners.  The Islamic puritanism movement Hizbut-Tahrir Indonesia  (HTI) uses climate-linked narratives to take advantage of grievances of people who are affected by climate change challenges. By picking up climate change in their Islamic-radical propaganda, HTI is successful in improving their ideological standing mostly in climate change-prone regions.  Indonesia’s current situation and its climate change challenges Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous nation, with 275.5 million inhabitants and home to the third largest surviving area of tropical rainforests. The country is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts and is listed  as the 47th country most at risk of climate change hazard (out of 191). Main climate change risks posed to Indonesia's population are  extreme heat stress, pollution, rapidly reducing water supplies, and food insecurity. The natural hazards hitting Indonesia are earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, cyclones, volcanic eruptions, and droughts. There have been several governmental attempts to tackle climate change-related security issues. As a political reaction to the sinking capital Jakarta, President Joko Widodo announced several mega-development projects to tackle climate change. Widodo started relocating the capital to the new IbuKota Nusantara (Capital of the Archipelago) to Borneo island, building a completely new green Eco-Forest City from scratch. The estimated costs of the project lead up to US$45 billion. Nusantara is currently being built on more than 250,000 hectares of forest – around three times the size of Jakarta. Still, in comparison to the 10 million Jakartian citizens, the new capital will only initially host 500,000 citizens. The first relocation deadline for 1,800 civil servants for the new seat of government is in August 2024.  The current national strategy is called ‘2045 Golden Indonesia’ and marks Indonesia’s proclaimed independence from Dutch colonial rule on August 17, 1945. By this, Widodo follows a political stance of progress and development. He aims to showcase the rise of a middle-income nation to a high-income country resilient to climate change challenges. However, it is questionable to what extent Widodo’s mega-development visions will leverage effective climate protection. Especially after the national election early in 2024, environmentalists fear that the decade of deforestation that took place under Widodo could unleash a new ecological catastrophe of mining, coal burning, downstreaming, and deforestation. Further loss of forest will have serious impacts on climate change, not only in Indonesia but worldwide. Deforestation will be associated with more frequent droughts, massive heat waves, and severe sea level rise. This is a high risk, especially in Indonesia, where most of the population lives in coastal areas. NASA Earth Observatory images by Michala Garrison, 2022 & 2024 Wikimedia Commons Indonesia is home to 50 to 70 million Indigenous people, which make up 18 to 25 percent of the total population. Deforestation, large-scale nickel mining, resource competition and tensions over land are a continuous threat to Indigenous people and their well-being. The construction of the new capital now exacerbates these social inequalities and abuses against Indigenous peoples. The Indonesian government offered small compensation if Indigenous communities were to relocate. However, several reported cases of human rights violations show that Indigenous people are being forcefully displaced and are under threat of losing their homes.  Such issues may be exacerbated once President-elect Prabowo Subianto will take office in October 2024. Activists and opposition fear further democratic backsliding. Human rights groups claim that Prabowo was involved in human rights violations in Timor-Leste in the late 1980s. Even though he confirmed to follow Widodo’s democratization efforts and development plans, Prabowo military background and his controversial past suggest that he might take a more centralized and controlled governmental stance.  His appointment would further increase the military’s involvement in domestic political affairs. There is also a chance for recurring political connections between religious Islamist hard-liners and Prabowo's government. Prabowo has past associations with hard-line Islamist groups. In the lead-up to the 2019 election, he appeared to be forming a populist-military-Islamist alliance. During this period, his allies allegedly played a key role in organizing mass protests against Jakarta’s Governor Basuki Purnama (known as Ahok), targeting him for his ethnicity and alleged blasphemy. These protests were led by Islamist groups such as Front Pembela Islam  (FPI) – who call for violent jihad. Indonesia’s standing in ASEAN region and internationally Indonesia is the largest economy in Southeast Asia and a crucial player in peace and security issues in the region. Regarding climate change, current research highlights that four ASEAN member states are among the world’s highest committers of perpetuating global warming while also experiencing and facing the harshest climate change-related hazards and impacts. In Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, extreme heat is considered the most extreme physical risk.  On the international stage, Indonesia will likely continue to play an active role under President-elect Prabowo. Indonesia’s government is likely to present itself as the most green, sustainable and high-tech country in Southeast Asia. Officially, Indonesia already launched an Energy Compact and thereby joined a global community of member states who commit to the SDG7 and strong net-zero goals. Initially these goals were set to be reached until 2030 In more current speeches, Widodo set climate goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 32% below the business-as-usual by 2060.  Indonesia’s political challenge of radical Islamist groups Indonesia’s counter-terrorism strategies have been partly successful in the past. As a reaction to the 2003 Bali Bombings, the counter-terrorism Special Detachment 88 or Densus 88 was formed. Densus 88 was equipped and trained by the US and Australia. In 2006, a Transnational Crime and Terrorism Task Force was established by the Indonesian Attorney General’s Office. Another national accomplishment was the creation of Indonesia’s Counterterrorism Agency (BNPT) in 2010.  The focus of Indonesian deradicalization programs was to ensure that those under arrest did not re-engage with radical Islamist groups once they were released. Additionally, Indonesia has opened four prisons for high-risk terrorists. These major political activities against the violent Islamist discourse and against activism calling for a violent jihad have forced the radical religious-conservative Islamist groups to shift towards implementing the shari’a from grassroots and activist level.  Radical Islamist and religious-conservative groups have gained influence over politics since the late 2000s by organizing grassroot campaigns and charities as well as by forming a political party. In the Indonesian People’s Da’wah Party the terrorist organization Jamaah Islamiyah  (JI) operated through its disguise. Up to 7,000 members work within government institutions and are spread across civil and religious organizations. Extremist Islamist groups in Indonesia have benefited from weak public institutions, consequently also building religious-oriented schools called Pesantren as well as instilling young people on social media. In 2022, Indonesia’s National Counter-Terrorism Agency (BNPT) revealed that 68 Pesantren are affiliated with JI. However, looking at the total estimated number of 30,000 Pesantrens in Indonesia, it’s important to note that the majority of Pesantrens, as the oldest educational institution rooted in Indonesia’s Muslim communities, carry the spirit of religious moderation promoting tolerant views of Islam.  Radicalism on the rise due to climate change? Members and former activists of HTI support a climate narrative that legitimizes and supports a global caliphate. Figures show that young Indonesians perceive the climate crisis as a fundamental threat to their personal and national security. The majority of respondents of a national survey  in 2021 (81%) think Indonesia must protect and preserve the environment even though it will slow down economic growth. Another 84% of respondents agree that action on climate change/crisis must be carried out immediately. The study shows that 52% are very concerned about environmental degradation, while 32% are very concerned about Islamist radicalism in politics. So, even though young Indonesians fear Islamist radicalism, talking about the most pressing environmental concerns seems to be working: by considering climate change in their Islamist-radical propaganda, HTI is successful in improving their ideological standing mostly in climate change-prone regions. The Islamist involvement in politics from grassroot levels is not a new phenomenon – especially in Indonesia, extremist groups and sympathizers have set up decentralized charities. This way radical religious-conservative groups manage to infiltrate and propagate their radical visions without using violence or openly denouncing democratic governance. The misuse of charities and support mechanisms for their own hard-line religious cause is just another way of influencing the Indonesian youth and people affected by climate change.   With the President-elect Prabowo taking office in October 2024, the potential rise of hard-line religious radicalism in Indonesia needs to be considered more seriously. It is a possibility that radical Islamist groups will utilize the mega-development projects – issued by Widodo – which apparently only support already privileged Indonesian/ Nusantara citizens in their progress and development goals.  Due to the fact that the new capital Nusantara will not be able to host all 10 million Jakarta’s citizens, radical Islamist groups could get involved in relocation efforts for Jakartan citizens who are more underprivileged and disregarded by the government.  As the map shows below, locations for known radical Islamist groups and their grassroots level engagement are mainly based on Java island – which is mostly affected by climate change-related hazards. The map also highlights that the locations of Cirebon, Indramayu, Karawang, Bandung, and Tasikmalaya on West Java are quite close to Jakarta and, therefore, similarly at risk from extreme climate change challenges.  The infrastructure for radical Islamist engagement and activities already exists in West Java. On the one hand, this makes it easier from the outset for already active Islamist groups to convince vulnerable people and those threatened by climate change with their ideology and shari’a-based climate change narratives. On the other hand, it paves the way for new radical developments and hard-line religious-conservative groups to gain new members and radically exploit the grieving situations of helpless residents in West Java, Indonesia.   Map made by  Paula Boden Now, particularly with the new government under Prabowo, these tendencies towards Islamist radicalism are feared by Democrats and moderates across Indonesia. One scenario could be that Prabowo’s formerly close ties to hardline Islamists will be reactivated and revived. This would only worsen climate change challenges in Indonesia while fuelling Islamist activities in disaster response. But Prabowo himself projects a more moderate image for his presidency, not least through his social media appearance on TikTok as ‘ cuddly grandpa ’ during the election campaigns. Prabowo taking office in October 2024 has therefore the power and tools to pave the way for positive political turnarounds: such as tackling tendencies towards radical Islamist movements at an early or at least still developing stage through engaging in preventive climate change action. This would make it more likely that Prabowo turns his back on solidifying with radical political parties and groups for good and engages more with his country’s agreement towards international climate change combat such as committing towards SDG 7  and regional cooperation of counter-radicalism.  Change could be achieved through more inclusive development projects that not only benefit the 500,000 citizens of Nusantara but all societal segments, including Indigenous communities and socially disadvantaged people in West Java. So, extensive preventive governmental action under Prabowo that recognizes a link between climate change and the rise of radicalism could lead to effective (inter)national counter-radicalism and counter-terrorism strategies.    Conclusion Climate change is the one underlying risk for multiple security threats in Indonesia, where the population faces life-threatening climate-related risks and is simultaneously influenced by radical Islamist groups and their misuse of Islamic views. Climate change is not only a risk multiplier but an underlying risk for increased radicalism, especially in West Java. Vulnerabilities posed by climate change-related hazards are exacerbated. The underlying risks of climate change also represent and incorporate a potential opportunity for Indonesia’s national and international standing. Through extensive preventive action, Indonesia, under President-elect Prabowo, could incorporate climate resilience and protection into counter-radicalism strategies to depict potential radical Islamist activities at an early stage. Additionally, by proactively addressing climate change challenges to simultaneously mitigate radicalism, the Indonesian government could collaborate with regional partners in ASEAN and could further manifest its progressive standing internationally. This approach would, for example, include a more inclusive stance on development that benefits all social layers and their economic and basic needs. Thereby, it would reduce the pool of potential recruits for radical Islamist and hard-line religious-conservative groups. Profile Paula Boden is a Freelance Journalist with a main focus on migration and climate crisis. She has years of professional experience in political education and Project Management. Currently, she pursues her MSc degree in Security Risk Management at the University of Copenhagen where she specializes in OSINT-research and Intelligence.

Date:   September 2024 - February 2025 Who is involved:  Ukraine, Russia, US, EU, Iran, North Korea, China In this report: What has been happening? Expectations Conclusions What has been happening?  In order to get an understanding of where the war is likely going, it is important to look at the major events and factors that have happened and influenced the war in the past months.  Battlefield Russia In a surprise turn of events, Ukraine invaded Russia on the 6th of August. The Russian military’s poorly prepared, lightly manned defenses on its Kursk region border were overrun without much of a struggle. Many conscripts posted on these positions were captured in great numbers, further discussed below. Russia’s response to set up a proper defense with professional military units has been slow, and a significant portion of the units initially responding to the invasion were destroyed in ambushes on their way to the battlefield. Reportedly over 1250km2 of the Kursk region has been captured by Ukraine at the time of writing. Speculation on Ukraine's intent is to not maintain a hold over (all) the acquired  territory. There are several signs of Ukrainian armed forces constructing defensive works in Russia, suggesting they are planning to hold on to at least some of the gained grounds, or at least make it a costly operation for the Russians to bring the territory back under Russian control.  POW galore The opening week of the Ukrainian invasion into Russia saw a record number of Prisoners Of War (POWs) taken. In one incident, over 100 POWs were captured in one go. Many of these new prisoners are Russian conscripts, a group normally not directly exposed to war raging in Ukraine. The capturing of these conscripts in great numbers raised concern amongst the civilian population in Russia, as their family members before were not directly exposed to the risk of dying or getting captured in combat. Ukraine stated proudly that all the POWs taken will be used for the ‘POW exchange fund’, in a move to secure the release of Ukrainian prisoners, many still from the battle of Mariupol now more than two years ago.  Eastern front The Russian Armed Forces are slowly but steadily crawling forward on the eastern front line. Now approaching the vicinity of some key towns and cities, battles on this front are not expected to reduce. These advances have been extremely costly for the Russian forces, both in manpower as in equipment. It however seems that as long as the slow crawl forward continues, the Russian Armed Forces command is not planning on giving up on offensive operations despite the cost that comes with it.  Southern front The southern front has seen the littlest movement of the three. This does not mean combat is not conducted however. Most notable is the surrender of Krynky, the small foothold held by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the left bank (Eastern bank) of the Dnipro river. After months of fighting over the small bridgehead, which mainly served a symbolic function, the terrain and town were demolished to such an extent that there was hardly any cover left.  Ukrainian domestic (weapon) developments Ukraine is setting up and increasing its domestic weapon production. Cheap drone variants are being made en masse, not just by the Ukrainian military industrial complex, but also by people from their homes and soldiers near the front lines. On the other end of the spectrum is the new “drone rocket” ‘Паляниця/Palyanitsya’, a weapon resembling a cruise missile in its manner of attack. The Palyanitsya is likely developed partially because of the lack of permission from the US to use their donated ATACMS missiles against targets deep inside Russia. The Palyanitsya has a reported range of around 500 km, placing military airfields previously deemed safe, well within targeting range. Besides fully domestic developed weapons, European companies are setting up production facilities in Ukraine. Rheinmetall will set up shop to produce tanks (likely the Leopard 2) and air defense systems and munitions for these systems. Norwegian company Nammo recently allowed the production of their developed artillery ammunition in Ukraine. The relatively scarcely delivered CV90 Infantry Fighting Vehicle will reportedly be produced in Ukraine itself in the future as well, with modifications allowing the vehicle to perform better on the terrain type of Ukraine, as this was the only ‘complaint’ the Ukrainian armed forces have of the vehicle. Besides this, many more CV90s will be produced for Ukraine in Sweden, the country which developed the vehicle.  Producing additional weapon systems and munition to bolster supplies for the front line is not the only motivation for Ukraine to establish domestic production. At the moment, Ukraine heavily leans on the West, and the US in particular, to supply the country with enough weapons and munitions to fight off Russia. Historically, the West has not provided indefinite support to any nation or group it was helping, usually leading to the demise of said nations or groups. Not wanting the same fate, it serves Ukraine well to be able to at least primarily rely on its domestic production. This also will eventually negate the long waiting times for supplies to arrive, when production is up and running.  Attacks on energy/military  infrastructure  Ukraine continued its successful campaign against Russian military and energy infrastructure. When referring to energy, it consists mostly of oil and fuel facilities, which support the Russian war machine. In recent months, one could even consider this campaign as escalated, as Ukrainian strikes on Russian soil are an almost daily occurrence by now. While not all attacks are successful, some of the ones that are, are very high profile. Such as the recent strike against the oil/fuel storage in Proletarsk, which at the time of writing has been burning for more than a week. Other strikes have reached into Russia over 1700 km beyond the original borders.  Foreign support for Russia North Korea showed a great amount of support for Russia. Beyond the known ammunition support by North-Korea earlier this year, North-Korean vehicles were sighted fighting in Ukraine. These have a unique design, making them stand apart from the vehicles in use by Russia. Specifically, these Bulsae 3 or 4 are tank hunting vehicles. Constructed on modified BTR-60 or 80 platforms, they are equipped with ‘TV-missiles’. Capable of destroying targets ~10km away, this vehicle is likely very effective in combination with the plentiful small scale drones active on the frontline. Reasons for North Korea to donate vehicles does not necessarily indicate a shortage in the Russian supplies. A likely explanation is that North Korea sees the donation of some of its vehicles as a good way to test how these would fare in a real world combat scenario, while improving relations with Russia. Foreign support for Ukraine After the US eventually approved its bill (Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 17/04/2024) including the aid package for Ukraine, the situation on the front lines quickly saw a drastic improvement for Ukraine. Shortly followed by the limited approval by western countries to use donated weapon systems directly on or against Russian territory. This again noticeably improved the situation for Ukraine, as it was finally able to take out at least some of the positions in Russia threatening cities like Kharkiv. The limits stated by some nations, including the US, however do still significantly limit Ukraine’s striking ability against Russia.  A big development in western support for Ukraine is the arrival and deployment of the long awaited F-16s. While for now only a small first batch of around six are active over Ukraine, this number will crawl up to over 60. This alone will not turn the course of the war, nevertheless they are expected to be a valuable asset for Ukraine. In fact, during the mass missile/drone attack on 26/08/2024, F-16s were used to intercept incoming munitions. The F-16’s flight characteristics makes it a very suitable aircraft for these types of operations. Both Denmark and the Netherlands allow Ukraine to use their donated F-16s directly against and over Russia, whereas Belgium has not given this approval.  Crimea The peninsula is still a hotspot for military activity. This comes mostly down to aerial attacks or naval Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USV). While no direct attempt for the peninsula by Ukraine is expected anytime soon, Russian military and logistical targets are under heavy duress on Crimea. While the Russian Kerch bridge has recently not seen a(n attempted) strike, the alternative train-ferries have been destroyed in recent months. Naval activity by Russia on Crimea is almost completely over, with most ships withdrawn to Russia. Air defense systems on the island are frequent targets for Ukrainian aerial attacks, costing Russia many resources to maintain a formidable defense on the peninsula.  Black Sea Due to the retreat of most of the Russian Black Sea fleet, the Black Sea saw a reduction of activity, albeit not a total absence. Ukraine managed the sinking of some ships, including a submarine that was only recently in the water again after being damaged almost one year ago.  Expectations  Russian winter focus As the winter makes combined arms operations difficult in Ukraine, Russia is likely to switch back to its aerial attack focus, as it did last winter. It might try to continue its forward grind, or the Russian Armed Forces will bunker down in anticipation of a Ukrainian counter offensive. If the Russian territory taken by Ukraine is not recaptured by Russia, it is highly likely that Russia will focus on reestablishing its control over these areas, even if the weather does not suit offensive operations well.  Ukrainian winter focus It is hard to tell if the Ukrainian Armed Forces are planning any offensive operations this coming winter. While the winter will bring the ‘muddy season’ making combined operations difficult, Ukraine has surprised many with some of its actions and achievements in the past months. Not many people, if any, expected Ukraine to directly invade Russia itself, so anything is possible coming winter. What however is likely, is that Ukraine will expand on its air campaign, which has been growing both in quality and quantity over the past months. More use of the Palyanitsya is almost certain, and as the F-16s are drip fed into the country, it is likely Ukraine will regain (some) control over its own airspace. This does not only go for countering Russian aircraft threatening Ukraine, but also in intercepting UAVs and missiles. The use of F-16s in an aggressive role is unlikely, as this raises the risk of losses substantially.  Developments in the West As Europe is moving ever so slowly towards being able to stand on its own legs, both defensively as in supporting Ukraine, all eyes are on the US. The coming election season could have a major impact on Ukraine and the support it can expect from the US. If Kamala Harris wins the election, not much change is to be expected. The biggest question is what happens if Donald Trump is elected again. In the past, Trump announced that he would stop all aid to Ukraine, and “stop the war within 24 hours”. However, after a meeting with Polish president Duda earlier this year, Trump’s and the Republican party’s opinion on the subject was (at least temporarily) adjusted. The way Trump and the Republican party will approach the subject is something which has to be seen after the elections.  Most European countries are investing heavily into their militaries. However, as is the case with democracies and bureaucracies, developments are slower than expected and hoped. On the other hand, once the proverbial steam train is rolling, it is expected expansion of military power and production will grow exponentially. This will eventually allow Europe to carry more weight in supporting Ukraine, if not all of it, if the US decides to fully drop support to Ukraine.  “Every army is always perfectly prepared to fight the previous war”. Western armies generally are fully oriented around fighting a counter terrorism/insurgency conflict after around twenty years of fighting the Global War On Terror. Armies will have to shift their doctrine again to fighting a peer or near-peer level conflict, to prepare for the worst case scenario of the Ukraine war escalating to a NATO-Russia level conflict. The war in Ukraine is watched closely by military leaders in the West exactly because of this. As an example, the Polish army has been seen training in trench warfare, a tactic once thought belonging to history which fully resurfaced in Ukraine.  Assessment on Russia While large open discontent amongst the Russian population comes up every now and then, with the most recent example being Kursk region inhabitants. Voices of discontent in Russia usually are upset with the way the Kremlin is fighting the war, and not that it is being fought at all. This for now leaves the option of Russia halting its war due to internal pressure, by for example upset family members due to the loss of their relative, outside of the realm of possibilities.  The equipment used by the average Russian soldier has improved over what it was a year ago. (Real) body armor and helmets are more prevalent, and soldiers are seen more and more wearing the same type of camouflage as well as combat boots instead of sneakers. Storm-Z and other such units made up of criminals are less prevalent on the front line. This indicates a shift in Russian effectiveness on the battlefield, although its losses are still staggering partially due to its continuous aggressive stance. So-called ‘barrier troops’ are still used widely by Russia. These units are stationed behind assaulting units, with the order to shoot any Russian trying to retreat. This and other ‘motivational methods’ are used on a great scale by the Russian army, a military culture unlikely to disappear anytime soon. Russian vehicle  reserves With the reported vehicle losses by Russia in Ukraine being extraordinarily high, especially on combat critical systems such as (tube)artillery, this is one way Ukraine may hope to end the war. With in recent months an average of around 40 artillery pieces being lost daily, even Russian reserves are dwindling fast. Its industry does not stand a chance at keeping up with this rate of losses. At the current rate, serious problems could arise for Russia as early as 2025, as artillery is a critical piece of equipment to fight the modern war. Where Ukraine has the combined economies and industries of the West behind it, Russia can pretty much only count on North-Korea for such supplies. If Russia runs out of artillery pieces, or more likely reaches a level it does not want to drop below as it can threaten national security, it could mean an end to the war in Ukraine’s favor. It has to be said however, that for now Russian artillery still outnumbers their Ukrainian counterparts on the battlefield with a healthy margin. Conclusion After months of record high continuous losses for Russia, the nation shows no signs of letting up. As both sides are looking for answers on how to gain the upper hand in this war, newly developed weapons and tactics are fielded on the regular. Russia does not dictate the war as much as it did half a year ago, as Ukraine's front line situation drastically improved. The surprise attack on Russia itself has not only boosted Ukrainian morale, but has blasted right through many ‘red lines’ set by the Kremlin. Hope for Ukraine is now that they have shown the West that Putin’s red lines are no reason to fear escalation by Russia.

Date :  29/08/2024 Who’s involved : Government of National Accord, Libyan National Army, militias, clans, OPEC, the United Nations, foreign actors with personal interests What happened? On 23/07/2024  the Government of National Accord mobilized troops and militias and deployed them closer to the border with Libyan National Army controlled areas in the south-west of the country. This move alarmed the Algerian armed forces since the Libyan forces were getting very close to its borders. On 09/08/2024 the Libyan National Army, under control by General Haftar and his son Saddam, mobilized its forces and called on militias, clan and other armed groups to join them in a move directed towards the west of the country.  In response to this mobilization the Government of National Accord called for its own mobilization of armed forces and militias. On 10/08/2024  the United Nations called on the two parties to demobilize their forces and to stay on the road of the peace agreements that had been reached in 2020.  The European Union followed suit. In response to the UN’s declaration and the mobilization of troops by the Government of National Accord, General Haftar claimed on  13/08/2024   he was only mobilizing his forces to battle drug smugglers and human traffickers on the borders of his regions. On 14/08/2024  the Government of National Accord tried to replace the President of the Central Bank with a person that would be more representative of national interests. The Government of National Accord claimed that the current president of the Central Bank is too much in favor of giving money to areas controlled by the Libyan National Army.  These areas are filled with oil fields that pump out millions of gallons of oil for the international oil market. In response to the replacement of the president of the Central Bank, Haftar decided to shut down oil production on 22/08/2024 and in this way put pressure on the Government of National Accord to not try and replace the president. The shutdown of oil fields in an OPEC country like Libya can have international consequences, but so far has not led to any major price changes. It is reported that the transport of oil from the harbors to the international oil tankers is ongoing without pause.  According to the Libyan National Army however the production of thousands of barrels a day has been halted. Earlier in August 2024  a large Russian Navy vessel was seen in a harbor controlled by the Libyan National Army. Intelligence suggests that Russia has delivered more weapons to Haftar and his forces in order for him to be more powerful to take on the western government. Haftar’s forces may control large parts of the country, including the oil fields, but they lack connection to an international airport or larger harbors that they need to achieve the status of a more legitimate international partner.  Meanwhile, Russia, the UAE, Egypt and several other African and Arab countries continue to support Haftar with weapons, troops and intelligence. Libya, under the guidance of the United Nations, has planned general elections across the country in October 2024 . These elections have been postponed many times and it is uncertain whether or not they will take place in an atmosphere of heightened tensions.   Analysis : According to the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), the situation in Libya has not been this tense since 2020.  A peace agreement between the Libyan National Army and the Government of National Accord was reached after the second civil war that had lasted from 2015 to 2019. Both sides agreed to form a government and reach agreements on for example holding general elections and running the economy.. However, since the peace agreement there has not been much of a change in attitude towards each other in Libya. Both sides are vying for power and control over major hubs and resources in the country.  It is likely that both parties will try to gain the upper hand in the run up to the elections so they can solidify their possession of major assets.   Both parties might try to sabotage elections as a measure to increase their foothold over important assets. Foreign powers, like Russia, the UAE and Egypt, in the past sent thousands of troops to aid the Libyan National Army in its struggle for power in the hopes of being the first in line to benefit from the large oil fields in Libya. Even though, according to the 2020 peace agreement, foreign troops are no longer allowed in the country, it is very likely that foreign actors are still supplying weapons, intelligence and other forms of support to the Libyan National Army.  If the elections in October 2024 do not pan out in favor of the Libyan National Army there is a chance that foreign powers will once again advise general Haftar to seek confrontation with the Government of National Accord in order to gain more control over Libya. The United Nations, the European Union and the United States are at this moment preoccupied with the war between Ukraine and Russia and the war between Israel and Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and the Houthi from Yemen.  It is likely that money and resources are not being deployed as much as could be possible in order to support the Government of National Accord. This situation gives countries like Russia, Egypt, the UAE or even Iran the time and space to get a good foothold on Libyan soil again after their departure in 2020.  It is highly unlikely that the UN will be able to make a case in the Security Council to act on sending more help and support to Libya in the coming months . If the October elections do not pass by freely or even end in violence, the UN will not be able to stop a third civil war from happening. If Libya devolves into civil war once more it will have repercussions for the North-African region and it could herald in a new era of instability for countries adjacent to Libya as a spill-over effect will be felt.  Refugees will flee Libya and will try to reach Algeria, Egypt and Tunisia. But with hundreds and thousands of refugees already fleeing wars in Sudan, Mali and other sub-saharan countries it will quickly turn into a humanitarian crisis.  The European Union will also have to deal with an increased flow of refugees coming from North-Africa. The very lucrative, and highly criticized, deals the EU has made with Libya, Tunisia and other countries to stem the flow of refugees will fall apart.  The EU now pays for its own border security by supporting the Libyan Navy to stop boats from crossing or to stop refugees from crossing into Libya through the deserts in the south. There is no guarantee that any warring faction will hold itself to the agreements reached with the EU if they are even still capable of performing their duties. Meanwhile, terrorist organizations like ISIS, Al Qaeda and others will undoubtedly reap the benefits of another civil war. Several organizations have been present in the country for decades and have used old smuggling routes and the willingness of local militias to do their dirty work for a handful of dollars. A renewed crisis in Libya will make it possible for terrorist organizations to grow their numbers and perhaps take possession of critical infrastructure like oil fields and airports in order to sustain their global networks. Conclusion Even though it is too early to tell, it seems that the rival factions in Libya have decided they need to solidify their tactical positions across the country before the elections in October 2024.  Both sides are antagonizing the other by mobilizing forces and asking militias, clans and mercenaries to join their side and strengthen their forces. Several armed clashes have already taken place in the capital of Tripoli between smaller rival factions, but it is likely that the major parties are looking to get the allegiance of as many militias as possible.  Airport, oil fields and harbors are in high demand by both parties as it will give them more control over how the successes of the oil production will be divided.  By trying to appoint a new president for the Central Bank, the Government of National Accord is willing to aggravate the situation to the dismay of the United Nations who is desperately trying to get the October elections going as smoothly as possible.  It is however to be seen if either party is willing to listen to outside voices calling for peace and unity while the cry for greed and lust for power seems a lot more appealing.

Date:   28/08/2024 Where : Balochistan (Pakistan) Who’s involved :  Separatist militants, Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA),  Pakistan’s government and security forces, the Inter-Service Intelligence forces (ISI) and China What happened? Between 25/08/2024 and 26/08/2024 several separate attacks targeting civilians coming from Pakistan’s Punjab province , took place in different cities in the Balochistan  (or Baluchistan) province, in the south-west of Pakistan. At least  74 people were killed , marking one of the deadliest days of violence in the province.  Civilians traveling from Punjab province were pulled from their vehicles and shot dead by armed gunmen. The deadliest of the attacks occurred in the Rarasham area of Musakhel district where at least 23 people were dragged out of their vehicles and were executed, after having verified their Punjabi ethnicity .  In Kalat district, 140 km South of the provincial capital Quetta,  armed fighters targeted law enforcement personnel , killing at least 10. Rail traffic was suspended in Bolan district, southeast of Quetta, on a rail linking the provincial capital to the rest of Pakistan, as well as on a rail link to neighboring Iran. Six people were killed.  The secessionist group Baloch Liberation Army (BLA)  claimed responsibility for the attacks. They said in a statement that the attacks targeted the security forces  and they took control of highways across the province.  Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif vowed retaliation for the brutal attacks and “complete elimination of terrorists” and stated that the separatists seek to disrupt the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Beijing,  which   has previously raised concerns about the security of its nationals working in Pakistan , condemned the attacks and offered support to Islamabad counter-terrorism efforts. The attacks occurred during a visit to Islamabad of Chinese top officials to discuss security of Chinese projects and infrastructure in Pakistan. Following militant attacks targeting foreign workers, the Pakistani government announced in June 2024 the creation of a special police unit to protect foreigners and bolster Chinese nationals' security  in the country.  The recent coordinated attacks are  not isolated incidents . Similar past attacks, targeting Punjabi laborers in Balochistan, have been claimed by the BLA. On 09/05/2024 seven barbers from Punjab province were   fatally shot in the port city of Gwadar, in Balochistan. In April 2024, 11 people were killed and several abducted in two separate attacks on the Quetta-Taftan highway.  During the past few months, massive large-scale peaceful protests by ethnic Baloch took place in Balochistan, to denounce systemic abuses by the central government to suppress political dissent , including extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances. According to Amnesty International, over 10000 Baloch have disappeared since 2011. The government has been  violently cracking down on protests . Recent deadly clashes between protesters and security forces occurred in the vicinity of the port of Gwadar in late July 2024.  Analysis : Balochistan, bordering Afghanistan and Iran, is Pakistan’s largest but least populated province. It is predominantly inhabited by the Baluch minority,  ethnic group spread between Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran, which have fought against the Pakistani government since 2004. The Baloch insurgency is rooted in a combination of long-standing historical, economic and political grievances , including systematic political exclusion  and discrimination compared to the Punjab population, the majority ethnic group in Pakistan, unequal representation in institutions and law enforcement, and economic oppression and exploitation of the natural resources , especially natural gas.  While tensions between the central government and the Baloch minority are long-standing, the current separatist insurgency began with the announcement in 2001 of a   Chinese-funded project to build a mega-port  and transportation hub in the village of Gwadar. The local population though has neither been involved nor benefited from the construction of the infrastructure, run by the Pakistani government and relying on Chinese workers and engineers, spawning economic marginalization and resentment among the Baloch people.  Moreover, another factor in the violent escalation of the Baloch insurgency was the militarization of the region by Pakistani security forces  due to the influx of refugees and Taliban troops into the bordering region of Balochistan during the conflict in Afghanistan.  The Baloch Liberation Army is one of the main ethnic insurgent groups  in Balochistan. The group goal is the protection of Baloch people's economic and resource exploitation by the Pakistani state and the creation of an independent Baloch state. Authorities estimate the group to have around 3,000 fighters. It has been designated by the US as a terrorist organization. The BLA is based in bordering Afghanistan.  Insurgencies are also opposing the Pakistani government’s involvement in the Chinese Belt Road initiative,  accusing Islamabad of exploiting oil and mineral resources of Balochistan in the massive Chinese-led projects. In the past, Baloch groups have often targeted Chinese nationals and interests  in the province, including Gwadar port and mines.  While attacks on ethnic Punjab workers and foreigners have occurred before in Balochistan, the recent escalation of violence suggests a shift in scale, nature and coordination of BLA attacks and tactics . Punjabi civilians went from being casualties or sporadic targets  to the main target of greater coordinated brutality. The reasons behind the violent attacks appear to be mounting resentment over the economic exclusion of the local population over Punjabi majority and foreign workers. Moreover, an escalation of violence in the region would sabotage investment by foreign companies, especially Chinese,  exploiting local natural resources. Last year, on 07/04/2023,  the Pakistani intelligence agency, the ISI, revealed to the public it had arrested the leader of the Baloch National Army (BNA). The ISI then predicted that the insurgency movements in Balochistan had been dealt a severe blow and that the insurgents would surrender soon.  The ISI has since then continued to use force against Balochi people indiscriminately, further aggravating the local population. The government is expected to respond with a massive deployment of forces  in the already militarized Balochistan province. In order to stop attacks on civilians and preserve credibility with foreign partners and investors, especially China, an escalation of offensives against separatist groups is likely. More fighting is likely to further escalate the conflict .  Conclusion : While Baloch separatist groups' attacks targeting security personnel, civilians, and foreign workers are not new in Balochistan, the latest coordinated escalation of violence is especially alarming due to the  unprecedented scale and intensity . The attacks are the latest display of the frustration and grievances of the Baloch people , who denounce military oppression and political and economic exclusion by the Pakistani central government. Further protests are to be expected, although the brutality of the BLA's attacks might risk undermining the cause and claims of the Baloch ethnic movements.  The government will likely intensify its militarization efforts in the region, as it already has announced repercussions and has economic and diplomatic interests with China  in eradicating the separatist insurgency in Balochistan. Yet,  the military approach has been unsuccessful  in the past decades, instead exacerbating an escalation of the conflict between security forces and separatist armed groups. To solve the conflict, the Pakistani government should address the development and resource exploitation concerns of locals, ensure institutional recognition for the claims of the Baloch community, and end systematic discrimination. Unless serious measures are taken there is no chance of restoring stability and security and breaking the decades-long conflict in Balochistan .

Date:   21/08/2024 Who’s involved? Ukrainian government, Russian government, the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Russian Armed Forces  What happened? Ukraine invaded Russian territory in the Kursk region on 06/08/2024 . This time multiple Ukrainian brigades were dedicated to the attack, as opposed to smaller contingents of Russian nationals seen in 2023 and early 2024 with groups such as the Freedom of Russia Legion and the Siberian brigade. Mass amounts of Russian POWs were taken, largely consisting of conscripted forces. This caused backlash in Russia, resulting in the first Russian initiated prisoner exchange talks. In the following days, airstrikes hit Russian air bases, which were suspected of housing the aircraft responsible for the mass glide-bomb attacks on Ukrainian lines. Most recently, Ukraine blew up three bridges, effectively cutting off 600km2 of land, and an estimated 3000 Russian troops from the rest of Russia. Russian forces have been unable to come up with a quick response to the Ukrainian incursion, losing large amounts of reinforcing troops to ambushes. However, Russian defenses seem to slowly be established by now.    What is Ukraine’s motivation? Diversion of Russian troops:  This goal is both short- and long-term. In the short-term, as a direct effect of this incursion, Russia will have to redirect troops from the active front lines in Ukraine to the Kursk region. This results in slightly less pressure on Ukrainian troops on those lines. In the longer-term, this incursion is likely to make Russia dedicate more troops to the defense of its own borders, locking these troops out of combat in Ukraine. If Russia opts to not do so, it runs the risk of falling to another incursion in the future. This balances the ‘field’ more, as Ukraine has had to protect all of its border shared with Russia, and even Belarus, since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.  Denying Russia rest:  Russia has been on the offensive since March 2024. Offensive operations always cost more manpower, equipment, and ammunition than defensive operations. At the point of culmination, when an offensive has lost all of its momentum, an army typically takes a defensive posture to ‘recharge’. This moment will arrive soon for the Russian army, but they will likely not be able to rest, as it is unlikely that Putin will allow Ukraine to hold Russian territory for long. This means the Russian army will have to stay on the attack in the Kursk region, after being on the attack for months already. This will likely hurt their future war effort.  Bringing the war to Russia:  For the first time since the start of the full scale war, large swaths of Russian land, over 1000km2 has been occupied by Ukrainian forces. This forced Russian citizens to flee, and showed Russians living near Ukraine that they are not safe from this war. This (for now) massively successful Ukrainian incursion also showed the Russian citizens that Putin is not as in control of the situation as he outwardly portrays to be, hurting the stability of his position.  Diplomatic leverage:  If peace talks will happen, and Ukraine is still holding Russian territory, this ensures Kyiv leverage at the negotiating table. However, (for now) Ukraine’s official stance is that they do not plan to hold the Russian territory in the long-term.  Seize successes on the battlefield:  It has been a while since Ukraine had any major gains on the battlefield, dating as far back as late 2022. This new success does not only hurt Russian morale, but it is also likely to significantly boost Ukrainian morale. It is critical that Ukraine continues this operation successfully, and if/when pulling out of Russia, does not incur major losses of personnel or machines.  POW exchange fund:  Ukraine managed to capture record amounts of POWs in the two weeks (at the time of writing) of this operation. Reportedly, over 2000 Russian soldiers were captured. As declared by Zelensky, these POWs will be used to exchange captured Ukrainian soldiers. The Azov fighters captured at Mariupol are specifically mentioned. Due to both the scale and conscript nature of most of the POWs taken in Kursk, Russia is more inclined to exchange POWs to quell unrest in Russia itself.  Show to ‘the West’ Ukraine’s capabilities to win:  As mentioned before, the last Ukrainian victory on the frontlines was more than a year ago in 2022. One of the main reasons used by those who oppose supporting Ukraine in ‘the West’ is the claim that Ukraine does not have the capability to win the war. This incursion into Kursk shows Ukraine’s capabilities and potential. This may motivate Western leaders to donate more equipment to Ukraine.  Conclusion Ukraine’s operation into Kursk can be seen as a great success for Kyiv (at the time of writing). Multiple goals have been achieved, and there are no signs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces decreasing their efforts anytime soon. As they still hold the upper hand, and dictate the fighting, there is potential for further success. It will however be critical for Ukraine to not let this operation end with major losses while holding onto territory against mass attacks from Russia, if those will happen. This would take away from the success of this operation and severely damage Ukrainian morale.

Date:  20/08/2024  Where : Haiti Who’s involved : Kenya-led MSS,  Haiti security forces, gangs  What happened? Haiti has been experiencing a deteriorating security and humanitarian crisis since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in 2021.  In  September 2022, a powerful coalition of gangs, known as the G9 Family led by Jimmy “Barbecue” Cherizier, took control of several parts of the capital Port-au-Prince. The security situation further deteriorated in late February and March 2024 , when gangs launched a series of coordinated attacks in response to former de facto PM Ariel Henry’s agreement for the deployment of Kenyan police officers in the country. The escalation of violence and the unrest led to a political crisis, the resignation of the contested PM Henry, and the installation of a transitional council. Haiti's new government was announced in June 2024 , led by Prime Minister Garry Conille.  Amid   growing insecurity and gang-related violence in Haiti, the   UN Security Council approved to send a Kenyan-led multinational force , the Multinational Security Support (MSS), to assist the Haitian government in countering armed gang violence in October 2023. The MSS’ aim is primarily to train the Haiti National Police (PNH) to defeat the armed gangs and lead to a situation where it will be possible to hold democratic elections.   The initial forces of the MSS arrived in the country on 25/06/2024 , after several postponements. Currently, 400 of the 2500 planned forces have been deployed in Haiti. Along with Kenya, other countries, including the Bahamas, Bangladesh, Chad, Barbados, Jamaica and Benin, are planning to join the support mission.  Since their arrival,  Kenyan forces are not achieving significant results and advances against the gangs , which control 90% of the capital. The main accomplishment of the MSS has been taking back control of the largest public hospital in Haiti. Analysis : Haiti is grappling with a prolonged economic, political and security crisis . The crisis was exacerbated by the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse in 2021. The recent escalation of gang-related violence and political instability has worsened the already precarious situation. In Haiti there are more than half a million internally displaced people, about 5.5 million people in immediate need of humanitarian assistance, and about 45% of the population facing food insecurity. Kidnappings and murders have soared in recent months, with over 3,200 reported killings in 2024.  The MSS is widely regarded as a key response to Haiti's security issue, welcomed as a “unique opportunity” to restore order by Haiti’s interim PM Conille, and praised by US President Biden as “the best chance” to restore democratic governance in the country. However, the MSS has been presented with structural and mandate issues that make it unlikely to achieve its goals, and is spawning significant controversies.  First, the MSS’s mandate and long-term strategies are not clear and transparent.  Although authorized by the UN Security Council, the MSS mission operates outside the  supervision of the UN and involves limited involvement of Haitian authorities and civil society.  Haitian authorities, including the Presidential Security Council and law enforcements, appear to have limited influence and knowledge of the MSS mission's operational strategies.  The lack of cooperation between the government and the MSS   undermines the credibility and legitimacy of the mission.  The main objective of the MSS is to support and train Haiti’s national police (PNH) into tackling gang violence and assist the government in restoring law and order, addressing the humanitarian crisis and advancing the political process. However , little progress has been made for Haitian police capacity building . The risk is that the MSS mandate ends leaving the PNH untrained and in an unchanged unstable environment. Slow progress shows that the mission may lack adequate resources and equipment .  The MSS force lacks critical assets such as helicopters, combat vehicles, and necessary infrastructure, to combat the estimated 5,000 to 10,000 gang members entrenched in and around Port-au-Prince. The situation has increased pressure on the operation’s main sponsor, the US, to boost financial support and deploy additional resources . Beyond financial aid, the MSS also requires more personnel. Although additional forces were expected from countries like the Bahamas, Bangladesh, and Jamaica, their deployment remains uncertain.  Moreover, human rights organizations and Haitian civil society expressed concerns over the lack of clear accountability mechanisms to address potential human rights violations.   Haiti has a troubled history with international interventions and impunity. The last international intervention, the U.N.’s 2004-2017 MINUSTAH mission, resulted in a massive sexual abuse scandal and a cholera epidemic. MINUSTAH have caused widespread distrust of foreign forces in Haiti, and part of the civil society remains opposed toward international interventions . Moreover, Amnesty International has pointed to the Kenyan police’s troubling human rights record, including recent allegations of brutality towards protesters in Nairobi, last June 2024 .  Finally, the MSS lacks a long-term strategy to address and solve the root causes of the cycle of violence in Haiti . Besides the short-term goal of assisting and training the Haiti National Police (PNH) in fighting gangs, the MSS has a marked military-centric approach  which will prove ineffective in the long run in identifying and resolving the socio-economic and political drivers underlying the gang violence and dynamics in the country. Gangs in Haiti are deeply intertwined with society, the political sphere, and the private sector and cannot be eradicated by military force alone . Moreover, Haitian gangs are linked with regional criminal organizations and successfully finance their activities by participating in transnational illicit networks, mostly arms and drugs trafficking.  Kenya has recently experienced a big wave of anti-government protests  that lasted for over a month. Although not reported by the media, it is also possible that further  turmoil in Kenya might have an impact on the Kenyan forces deployed in Haiti,  perhaps requiring them to go back to provide support in their country.  Conclusion : Nearly two months after the arrival of the international MSS forces little has changed in the volatile security environment in Haiti.  Despite the deployment of international forces, the humanitarian crisis and escalating gang-related violence is intensifying.  The mission, greeted with great enthusiasm by the international community and the Haitian ad interim government, does not seem to be able to meet expectations due to discrepancies between the ambitious objectives and actual resources and the lack of a clear mandate.  The inconsistencies of the MSS and the lack of tangible improvements for the local population threaten to exacerbate frustrations and distrust toward local authorities and foreign forces , jeopardizing the credibility and legitimacy of the Kenyan-led mission. Moreover, ensuring the success of the MSS requires a long-term strategy to address gang violence  and governance with a more holistic approach. Capacity building of the Haitian police force and greater involvement and ownership of the country's stabilization process by the government and local stakeholders are imperative steps to accomplish the objectives of the MSS.

Total MPOX cases from 01/01/2022, as of 31/03/2024. Source: WHO  (2024) Date:   15/08/2024 Who’s involved? The African center for disease control and prevention, World Health Organisation, the Democratic Republic of Congo, pharmaceutical companies and Western governments. What happened? On  13/08/2024,  the African Center for Disease Control and Prevention  declared a public health emergency on the African continent pertaining to a new strain of MPOX that has been found to spread fast in certain parts of West Africa and is targeting women and children. On  14/08/2024,  the World Health Organization called the MPOX outbreak a global health emergency  making it easier for countries and emergency services to obtain adequate amounts of vaccines and reduce paperwork to effectively control the outbreak. In 2022, the WHO also called another outbreak of MPOX a global health emergency but this referred to another strain of the virus which was transmitted through sexual contact. The newer strain seems to spread easier and affects also women and children whereas the former strain was more prevalent among men as it was spread mostly in the gay community through sexual encounters.  This 2022 strain of MPOX spread across the world and there were numerous cases in the United States, Germany, France, Denmark and other countries. MPOX is a version of smallpox and can cause fever, very painful lesions, chills and body aches. Lesions are usually seen across the face, hands and chest but the new strain shows less obvious lesions and mostly in the genital area.  People, mainly children, can die from MPOX. The new outbreak seems to center on the DRC (Democratic Republic of Congo) and has been responsible for dozens of deaths of children in crowded and unsanitary refugee camps. The East of the DRC has been an unstable region for decades and the government has little to no control over the region which is rich in minerals and is fought over by dozens of terrorist and guerilla groups.  The mineral mining in the area is supported by foreign governments and organizations that profit from extracting the minerals and are willing to pay armed groups to protect their interests from being seized by the government.  Vaccines are readily available for Western countries and outbreaks are easily managed which reduces the mortality rate severely.  In West-Africa however vaccines are not readily available and pharmaceutical companies and Western governments seem reluctant to provide vaccines. The WHO declaration of a global health emergency has been issued to tackle this problem by circumventing bureaucracy and red tape, but it is not a guarantee that enough vaccines will be available. It is hard for NGOs to get correct numbers and information on the MPOX outbreak  in DRC as the outbreaks occur in contested and dangerous areas where there is no government oversight and armed groups control the flow of people and products.   Analysis: With the new strain of MPOX spreading fast throughout the DRC and other countries it is likely that hundreds of people will be infected in the coming weeks and months.  The number of deaths will rise exponentially and without a well regulated vaccination programme there is the chance the virus will spread to other countries in the region. Countries bordering the DRC like Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi and South-Sudan house large numbers of refugees and displaced people in camps that are not very sanitary. MPOX can easily spread through these camps and it could force people to leave these camps out of fear for their children’s lives. Such an event will spread the virus to places it has not been before, like the refugee camps in Sudan, and it can quickly turn into a very large health emergency.  The past has shown that the outbreak of a disease in poor regions of the world can wreak havoc amongst the population, especially when they live in refugee or displacement camps that are not very hygienic. Armed groups and terrorist organizations can take advantage of this situation by getting their hands on vaccines and being the ones that distribute them in regions under their control.  This will likely make people feel more favorable towards these groups as their resentment towards their own government or the West grows. A large outbreak across the African continent can destabilize entire regions that are already on the brink of falling over. This effect can become exponentially worse if the virus spreads to the West and other rich countries and vaccines for Africa will be even less in supply. Resentment over the unbalanced distribution of the COVID vaccines can be fertile ground for extremism.  If groups like ISIS or Al Qaeda, or countries like Russia, jump in the gap and help distribute vaccines it is likely that alliances in these regions will shift. The handing out of vaccines is imperative and will likely help stop the virus from spreading. The willingness of Western countries and pharmaceutical companies to distribute the vaccines free of charge to poorer countries and regions will be the main driving force behind stopping the spread or by letting it run its course. During the COVID pandemic in the early 2020’s the lack of availability of vaccines for poor countries across the globe was the main factor in the rise of the number of deaths in these countries. This also made the pandemic last longer than necessary.  It has long been a contentious point on the global scale that Western countries and pharmaceutical companies tend to keep vaccines for themselves.  There is an overproduction and storage of vaccines in the West that at certain times needs to be disposed of because the vaccines have passed their expiration date. During the COVID pandemic in 2022 several pharmaceutical companies pledged to open factories and laboratories in Africa to serve the vaccine market there. But recently most companies have retracted their investments stating that it is not economically viable.  Western companies cannot compete with countries like India that produce generic vaccines.  Another problem the pharmaceutical companies have come across was that qualified people who could work in their laboratories usually leave Africa to find work in Europe or the United States. High salaries and a higher standard of living makes moving more attractive. Conclusion With the WHO and the African CDC declaring a global health emergency on the outbreak of MPOX in West-Africa there is still a chance that the spread of the disease can be halted if enough vaccines are distributed in these regions. However, it seems that the West and pharmaceutical companies are again reluctant, as they were during the COVID pandemic, to produce more vaccines and supply them to NGOs and emergency health organizations . This reluctancy can lead to a wider spread of the virus and will be responsible for the deaths of dozens of people, mostly children. MPOX is a treatable virus but the new strain is harder to recognize if not looked at by medical professionals. It is therefore likely that the virus will infect more people as they do not know that they are infected by MPOX.  This does not help with curbing the spread of the virus. The African CDC and the WHO are likely to lobby for more grants and vaccines to be made available to tackle the outbreak before it becomes a true global problem as COVID turned out to be.

The security situation in Bangladesh is worsening. Mohammed Yunus now leads the interim government but the protests are unlikely to stop. There are several reported attacks against Hindu minorities in the country, with rioters also targeting the apartments of members of the Awami League. Rival political factions, as well as students calling for the immediate release of prisoners held by the authorities, will hold demonstrations in the coming weeks. Police presence has resumed somewhat but remain scarce, with the military refusing to act to prevent further rioting. While international flights are open and train links have resumed their services, it is possible that they will become targeted as gathering centers for protests. Protesters have also targeted banks, public buildings and hotels around the country, with several clashes resulting in the shooting of civilians. Several countries have advised against all but necessary travel to Bangladesh. International travelers must consider rethink any travel plans to Bangladesh for the time being, unless the situation improves. Dyami will continue to monitor the unrest and are ready to assist.

Written by Arianna Lucà, Jacob Dickinson, Iris de Boer, Kevin Heller, Sara Frisan  Russia-Ukraine: Russia launched its largest sustained drone attacks against Ukraine, while Ukraine continues to strike targets inside Russia.  Israel:   The conflict between Israel and Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and the Houthi is going into a new phase. Myanmar:   Large scale offensive from pro-democracy and ethnic armed forces make significant gains with the arrival of the first conscripts into the Myanmar military junta.  Sudan:   Territorial gains by the RSF in Sudan’s southeast. HRW reported high levels of sexual violence against women and girls committed by the RSF as well as the SAF. Mali: Following major losses of Malian soldiers and Wagner Group fighters in large-scale clashes, the government cuts ties with Ukraine for allegedly supporting the rebels.  Somalia: Increasing threat from Islamic State and Al-Shabaab, posing new challenges for Somali Security forces as UA peacekeeping mission will withdraw in December 2024. Nigeria:  Nationwide protests over the soaring cost of living and economic hardship turned violent in Nigeria. Mexico: The arrests of Mexican Sinaloa cartel’s drug lords could trigger further violence and instability in the country.  Bangladesh: Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigns and new elections have been called with General Waker, an Army Chief leading an interim government. DRC: Amid escalating fighting between Congolese army and M23 rebels, DRC and Rwanda agreed for a ceasefire.  Kenya:  As violent anti-government protests against President Ruto persist, concerns grow over police violence and the economic repercussions of instability in Kenya.  Venezuela:  Deadly protests erupted in the aftermath of July 28 Venezuelan presidential elections, as Maduro was declared winner in a contested and likely fraudulent vote.  China-Taiwan: The PRC pressures other states to not attend Taiwan’s diplomatic initiatives and Taiwan holds annual military exercises. Conflicts, July 2024 Russia-Ukraine In early July, Russia managed to gain territory in the area of Chasiv Yar  in Donetsk Oblast, while Ukraine managed to make small gains on other parts of the on the eastern front . Fighting also continued in the Kharkiv region, where it was reported that Russia used wounded soldiers on the frontline. Ukraine succeeded in regaining some ground lost in the north  with the support from the Ukrainian Air Force. In addition, fighting took place in the Zaporizhia region and on the southern bank of the Dnipro river in Kherson Oblast. In July, Russia launched its largest sustained drone attacks towards Ukraine  since the full-scale invasion, targeting civilian and critical infrastructure. Russia launched 90 drones at civilian targets across Ukraine earlier this month, particularly in Kyiv, with one attack targeting the main children’s hospital, killing over 30 people. Ukraine managed to strike targets inside Russia  on an almost daily basis, including military facilities. In late July, Ukraine succeeded in striking the ferry port that connects Crimea to the Russian mainland and in early August a Russian submarine sank due to a Ukrainian strike.  NATO allies had pledged more aid for Ukraine as a new deal suggested that Ukraine is on a path to membership. At the end of July, Kyiv received several F-16 fighter jets from the Netherlands, Denmark, and Norway  which are hoped to allow the Ukrainian air force to strike further into Russian territory and defend against Russian glide bombs. On August 1, a major prisoner swap  between Russia and the West took place, involving people from seven different countries. The swap has been the result of months of negotiations and has been mediated by Türkiye. Israel The conflict between Israel and Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and the Houthi has gone into a new phase in July 2024. After Israel presumably killed Hamas political leader Haniyeh in Tehran  on July 31, on the day of the inauguration of the new Iranian president, tensions have flared in the Middle East.  Iran has vowed to retaliate against Israel  for the death of Haniyeh and has formally declared that it will attack Israel. Meanwhile, Israel also managed to kill the most high ranking Hezbollah military commander  in Beirut on the same day Haniyeh was killed in Iran. This right hand man of Hezbollah leader Nasrallah, called Shukr, was known to have been involved in dozens of terrorist attacks including the attack on the American embassy in Beirut in   1983 which killed hundreds of US Marines. Israel held him responsible for the deadly attack on a Druze village on   July 27 killing 12 children who were playing football.  Iran is preparing to attack Israel with the help of its proxies in the region . Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, Hezbollah in Iraq, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthi in Yemen are all well funded and supplied by Iran and it is reasonable to assume that they will all be involved in a multifront attack on Israel. Meanwhile, the IDF actions in Gaza in July were focussed on neutralizing Hamas command structure across Khan Yunis  mostly. Several large raids on Hamas compounds were conducted and several high ranking Hamas terrorists were killed. The IDF also uncovered several large tunnels leading into Egypt. These tunnels were large enough for trucks to drive through and were probably used to transport weapons and hostages in and out of Gaza. The fate of the Israeli hostages is uncertain  and negotiations on their release have stalled with the death of Haniyeh. Several bodies of killed hostages have been found and returned to Israel in July 2024. Myanmar  The Brotherhood Alliance , a mix of three ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy forces, made  substantial gains against the military junta  in July. On July 8, the Arakan Army (AA) seized the Thandwe Airport after heavy fighting in Rakhine State in a major blow to the military. The UN has reported that the Arakan Army and the military have conducted human rights violations  against the minority Muslim Rohingya community.  The end of a Chinese negotiated ceasefire  in June has led to more offensives against the military junta in the north eastern Shan State. On 26 July, the ethnic Chinese armed group the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) reported that it had captured a key regional commercial and military command headquarters in the city of Lashio after a month of siege. The fall of Lashio  is significant as it reduces the junta’s ability to stage a renewed assault on the territory it has lost in Shan State or re-establish control over the lucrative Myanmar-China border area. This followed another announcement by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) that they had gained control over a ruby-mining center to the west of Lashio. The alliance between these groups and the People’s Defense Forces (PDF) have so far remained intact and are able to push the military out.  However, there are indications that the junta is halting several offensives in Sagiain and Kayin, and recaptured a key city in the Kayah State . It has stalled the Kachin Independence Army (KIA). The military’s unpopular conscription order will produce another 15,000 soldiers by the end of 2024. The military has restarted its defense industries by maintaining its air force and conducting airstrikes more than ever. If the opposition forces fail to stay together to defeat the military in common cause, or the military junta maintain its ability to wage war, then the civil war will become worse in the near future.  Sudan  While the government supported Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are at war with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Sudan's government accepted an invitation for a new round of peace talks  in Geneva sponsored by the U.S. in late July. However, General Burhan who is leading the SAF later stated that the SAF would not join talks as Burhan survived a drone strike  while visiting an army base in eastern Sudan. The RSF has denied any responsibility for the attack. In July, the RSF continued its territorial gains in Sennar state  and took control of a majority of cities in Sennar as well as some SAF bases. In early July, the RSF also succeeded in capturing the city of al-Meiram  in West Kordofan. It is reported that the RSF is establishing civil administrations in the captured territories to weaken the control of local governments. According to the UN, the fighting in Sennar displaced over 151 thousand people from their homes.  The humanitarian situation in Sudan has worsened as food insecurity  is increasing as Sudan is currently experiencing lean season, which normally takes place from June to September. On August 5, the Sudanese government denied famine in the Zamzam refugee camp  in north Darfur despite findings by a global food monitor. In late July, heavy rains and floods took place in the Kassala province  in Southern Sudan, damaging multiple refugee camps. On July 28, Human Rights Watch released a worrying report documenting an intense degree of sexual violence by both the RSF and SAF targeting women and girls in Sudan . In addition, it was reported that the fighting parties have targeted health facilities and staff. Earlier in June, Doctors Without Borders released a similar report. It is estimated by the United Nations that over 10.7 million people have been internally displaced in Sudan since the start of the war in April 2023.  Alerts, July 2024 Mali In early July 2024, the military rulers of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso signed a treaty establishing a confederation called the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)  and formalized their exit from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Malian President Goïta was named as the first leader of the AES. The separatist confederation has an anti-ECOWAS and anti-Western stance. It confirms the military juntas' alignment with non-Western powers like Russia, Iran, and China. In July 2024, Mali signed new cooperation agreements with Russia and discussed plans for a nuclear power plant. Moreover, domestically, tensions are escalating between the military junta and the opposition. Despite the government lifting the three-month ban on political party activities and the call for national dialogue, on July 15, several opposition parties announced a boycott of consultations with the government, denouncing political repression and arbitrary detention of opposition figures . The presence in Mali of about 1,000 troops of the Russian private military group Wagner , who are responsible for atrocities against civilians, has been confirmed since 2021. In July 2024, clashes between the Malian army, supported by Wagner's Russian fighters, and Tuareg rebels intensified  in the north of the country on the border with Algeria. Large-scale fighting was reported from July 25 to July 28. The rebels gained significant wins and confirmed the killing of 84 Wagner mercenaries and 47 Malian soldiers . Following the fighting, arguably Wagner's deadliest defeat, the spokesperson of Ukraine's military intelligence agency (GUR) claimed that the Tuareg rebels had received the necessary information for a successful military operation against the Russian armed group. Although Ukraine denied its support for the rebels, on August 4, the Malian government cut all diplomatic ties with Kyiv for alleged involvement in the rebel attack . Moreover, an Al-Qaeda affiliate claimed the killing of 10 soldiers and 50 Wagner’s mercenaries in northern Mali.  Somalia The  threat of Islamic State  in Somalia is growing as IS increased its activities in Puntland , a semi-autonomous region of Somalia. In May 2024, the US and the Somali National Army (SNA) conducted an airstrike and attempted to target the leader of IS in Somalia, Abdulqadir Mumin. However, the airstrike did not succeed in eliminating Mumin. It is also believed that IS in Somalia has experienced an influx of fighters from other countries in the region , including some top IS members. This would strengthen the power of IS within the region and its ability to support global IS activities. Somalia’s security forces are also dealing with the  threat from the Al-Qaeda affiliated insurgency Al-Shabaab , and intensified its operations in the southern part of the country. Al-Shabaab, who has been contesting the government for over 17 years, is known for its deadly terrorist attacks all around Somalia, including the capital Mogadishu. On August 3, Mogadishu has experienced an attack by an Al-Shabaab suicide bomber and gunmen killing 37 people . Somalia’s security forces are currently supported by the African Union peacekeeping force, but its peacekeepers are expected to withdraw  in December 2024. This has increased worries about Al-Shabaab further expanding control in the country. In addition, it was reported by ACLED on 31 July that inter-clan fighting has also risen since February 2024. Authorities blamed Al-Shabaab for influencing this inter-clan fighting. Nigeria Hundreds of people took to the streets in Abuja, Lagos, and other major Nigerian cities to protest economic hardship, unsustainable living costs, and bad governance . Nigeria is experiencing its worst economic crisis in decades , with inflation above 34 percent, rising prices of primary goods, and a dramatic increase in the population below the poverty line. Attempts to revive the economy under President Tinubo, who has been in office since May 2023, including the partial suspension of fuel and electricity subsidies and devaluation of the national currency, have led to rising fuel and other goods prices. Nigerian security forces have violently suppressed previous protests . Amnesty International reported the killing of 13 protesters, although authorities put the death toll at 7, and the arrest of at least 50 journalists. Activists and protesters denounce the use of excessive force by police . About 700 protesters have been arrested. On August 4, President Tinubo called for an end to the protests, promising to create opportunities for dialogue. Nevertheless, it is likely that the protests, expected to last until August 10, 2024, will continue in the coming days. Further clashes between protesters and police and an escalation of violence cannot be ruled out.  Bangladesh The  student-led protests in Bangladesh against an unpopular quota system turned violent  in late July. The Awami League, under the direction of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the security forces, clamped down fiercely on the protesters, imposing a curfew, shutting off access to the internet and employing arbitrary detentions. The total number of over 200 people dead  is higher than the single digits estimated by the authorities. The Awami League blamed the protests on ‘outside forces’ and the opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP).  The protests continued for another week of intense clashes. At the beginning of August, Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina unexpectedly resigned as protests broke into her former residence and fled the country . As the daughter of the leader of Bangladesh’s independence movement in 1971, she was frequently arrested and came to power as a pro-democracy candidate against the military government. However, according to critics, her government oversaw the repression of opposition parties, clamping down on internet freedom, and widespread corruption . Her departure, potentially to New Delhi, is a demonstration of her close ties with the Indian government , who see her administration as a beacon of stability in the unstable northeastern Manipur region in the northeast of the country. The new interim government , led by Army Chief General Waker-us-Zaman,  announced that new elections will take place with the engagement of the opposition parties  and that an inquiry will be held into the deaths of protesters from the authorities. The president of Bangladesh, Mohammed Shahabuddin, ordered the release of student protesters . There is likely to be more instability as some rioting elements continue. The compromises reached by the opposition parties, the Army Chief and the timing of the next elections will be crucial in seeing how the situation will develop.  Mexico . On July 25, Mexican drug lord Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada and Joaquín Guzmán López, son of “El Chapo,” were arrested in Texas , after disembarking from a plane. El Mayo is one of the most important traffickers in Mexican history, co-founder of the Sinaloa Cartel with the former kingpin “El Chapo”, while Guzmán López inherited his father's cartel faction. Their arrests, a major coup for US authorities, were conducted without Mexico's knowledge and could trigger divisions within the Sinaloa cartel . This instability might benefit the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), long-time rival of the Sinaloa cartel. The Mexican military deployed forces in the Sinaloa state to avoid escalation of violence. While the arrests are a win for US law enforcement, they could lead to increased violence in Mexico, due to the  resulting power vacuum .  Updates, July 2024 Democratic Republic of Congo Despite the humanitarian truce announced by the US on July 4, and extended until August 3, clashes between the Congolese army and M23 rebels have not stopped in the eastern part of the country , especially in North Kivu and South Kivu provinces. M23 attacks and fighting have been reported in Lubero and Masisi territories, North Kivu, aggravating the dire displacement crisis.  Nearly 2500 Congolese, including 98 police officers, crossed the border with Uganda  in the past few days, fleeing from the escalation of violence. In recent weeks, IS-affiliated ADF attacks have also increased in North Kivu province. On July 13, at least 70 people were killed in an escalation of intercommunal violence  in Kinsele, about 100 kilometers east from Kinshasa, fuelling concerns over rising ethnic violence in the country.  On July 30, the foreign minister of DRC and Rwanda signed a ceasefire deal  during a meeting held in Angola. The ceasefire started on August 4. While the UN and the international community welcomed the agreement and the possibility of halting the hostilities, it is still unclear which parties agreed to the ceasefire as the Rwanda-backed M23 militias were not signatories to the accord . Escalating tensions between DRC and Rwanda had slowed the withdrawal of MONUSCO peacekeepers, requested in 2023 by the Congolese government. On July 14, the DRC foreign minister said that the departure of UN forces is not viable as long as there are Rwandan troops in the country . Kinshasa has long accused Rwanda of supporting the M23, accusations denied by Rwanda. Moreover, in early July, the UN provided evidence of Ugandan army support to the M23 in eastern DRC. Uganda denied any involvement with the militia.  Kenya In July 2024,  Kenya experienced an unprecedented wave of nationwide protests . Triggered by a controversial proposed financial bill and tax hikes, protesters argue the measures disproportionately affect the poorest. They are demanding better living conditions and President Ruto's resignation,  blaming him for the deaths and violence against protesters in recent weeks. The demonstrations, which began in mid-June as peaceful, took a violent turn due to the repressive response by police forces. According to human rights organizations, Kenyan security forces used excessive force toward the protestors, resulting in the deadliest anti-tax protests  in the history of the country. At least 50 people were in the clashes, while over 650 people have been arbitrarily detained. To halt the protests, President Ruto withdrew $2.7 billion in tax increases and fired almost his entire cabinet, appointing members of the main opposition party to the cabinet Despite the concessions to the protesters, anti-government protests seeking the president's resignation will likely continue throughout August 2024. Anti-government rallies have already been announced for the coming weeks  outside government buildings in major Kenyan cities. The violent developments in Kenya are having dramatic economic and political consequences. The UN, the US, and the EU have called for dialogue and restraint on all sides. International observers are closely monitoring reported suspected abuses and violations by Kenyan security forces, which already have a reputation for brutality and corruption.   Venezuela On July 28, Venezuela held presidential elections marked by intimidation and obstacles for the opposition . Despite independent polls predicting a major victory for opposition candidate González Urrutia,  the government-controlled National Electoral Authority (CNE) declared Maduro the winner . While Russia, China, and allied countries like Cuba and Bolivia congratulated Maduro, most of the international community called for full release of the voting results , which the CNE has so far failed to do. On August 1, the US recognized Venezuela’s opposition candidate as the election’s winner.  Protests erupted immediately after the results were announced , with demonstrators tearing down statues of Hugo Chávez and demanding political and civil freedoms. Security forces responded using tear gas and rubber bullets. On August 3, massive demonstrations organized by the opposition took place nationwide. Clashes with security forces resulted in thousands of arrests and at least 20 deaths . The UN expressed concerns over the allegations of human rights’ violations.  The Organization of American States (OAS) asked the ICC and ICJ to investigate Maduro's protests’ crackdown. Maduro launched an investigation against opposition leaders, accusing them of inciting the insurrection. González and Machado called on security forces to “stand by the people” and stop their support for Maduro’s regime.  Venezuela is currently experiencing a deepening political crisis , with growing regional and international concern over escalating protests, security, human rights and democracy in the country. More protests and repression are expected. Venezuela's neighbors fear a new mass exodus due to rising violence . Peru, Panama, Brazil and Chile increased border security.  China-Taiwan China and Taiwan relations in July began with Taiwan announcing that China’s Coast Guard had seized a Taiwanese fishing boat in the Taiwan Strait  on 3 July claiming that they were illegally fishing in China’s waters. In a turn toward minor positive relations on maritime issues, on 30 July, China and Taiwan reached a deal over fisherman’s deaths  in February 2024.  There were also reports from six countries saying that Chinese diplomats had been pressuring governments  to not attend a special conference on the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC). The meetings were held in Taipei and focussed on how  democracies should deal with the threat from Beijing. Members of the IPAC have been subject to cyberattacks and sanctions. The Taiwanese military conducted annual military exercises , called Han Kuang based on Taiwan, and the islands of Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu simulating an attack from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army from the PRC.  Taiwan’s ties with Japan, the Philippines and Australia have become closer in July . Japan released a new defense paper and warned of China’s rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait, with possible military action involving mainland Japan. More collaboration has been announced with the US, with the US  stationing a three-star general in Japan for the first time since the 1990s. The US also announced further military funding for the Philippines , including an additional  $500 million for improving maritime defense and intelligence sharing capabilities due to shared concerns over China’s actions in the South China Sea.  The US presidential election also implicated Taiwan in July. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said that Taiwan should pay for the protection of the island from China . After leaving office in 2020, he was the preferred candidate instead of Biden because he strengthened ties with the island for the first time since the US severed the mutual defense treaty with Taiwan in 1979. Biden’s presidency has seen closer ties with the island, stating on several occasions that he would defend Taiwan if attacked . Trump’s comments on the US-Taiwan relationship led to the Taiwan’s premier saying that Taiwan was grateful for US support and was working to build its own self-defense capabilities.  About the authors  Arianna Lucà Arianna is a new intern at Dyami, covering the role of Research Intelligence Analyst to enrich her background knowledge in International Relations with topics involving security and conflict. She holds an MA in International Relations from Leiden University and an LLM in European Criminal Justice from Utrecht University. During her academic career, she has volunteered for different NGOs, mainly Amnesty International, and Emergency and ActionAid, embracing humanitarian and conflict security causes, and addressing issues like famine and lack of security in different regions of the world. With Dyami, she is contributing to joint publications, writing articles, and keeping up to date with key regional developments. Jacob Dickinson  Jacob studied Global Political Economy at Leiden University. He is passionate about international development and is looking to expand his expertise in geopolitics and crisis management. Curious about other cultures, he has traveled in Europe and Asia for both academic study and professional purposes. His expertise includes the geopolitics of oil and industrial upgrading in the electronics global value chain. He is particularly interested in the evolving political and economic relationships between China and ASEAN, and the consequences for regional development and security.  Iris de Boer Iris works as a Global Intelligence Analyst at Dyami, leveraging her background in Human Geography. Additionally, Iris holds an MA degree in Conflict Studies and Human Rights from Utrecht University, specializing in conflict analysis, peace processes, and geopolitics. Her MA thesis delved into the securitization of the war in Ukraine by the Heads of State, Ministers of Foreign Affairs, and Ministers of Defense of the Netherlands and Poland. Within Dyami, Iris is actively involved in security risk management, travel security, and geopolitical analysis. Her enthusiasm for addressing topics in international security extends across a diverse spectrum of countries and regions Kevin Heller Kevin has over a decade of experience in the world of counter-terrorism as a consultant, trainer, and analyst. His background is in military Close Quarter Battle/Combat and Krav Maga for Military and Law Enforcement agencies. As a Global Intelligence Analyst, he writes Intel Briefs on conflict zones and terrorism.He has extensive knowledge of conflicts, politics, and other events happening in the Middle East. Kevin also has a background in Journalism and International Affairs/Conflict Studies. Sara Frisan  Sara works at Dyami as a Geopolitical Intelligence Analyst, leveraging her background in Peace and Conflict Studies. Sara joined Dyami after completing her MA in Conflict Studies and Human Rights at Utrecht University and held an MA degree in International Sciences and Peace Studies. During her academic career, she conducted research in South America, primarily Colombia, on the dynamics of collaboration and resistance between civilians and non-state armed groups in violent settings. In her previous internship at the investigative think-tank InSight Crime, Sara developed some expertise on transnational organized crime and political-criminal alliances.

Date:   08/08/2024 Where:   Country: United Kingdom  Who’s involved: English Defense League, football hooligans, Tommy Robinson, Civil Newsgroups, disinformation campaigners and others. What happened? On 29/07/2024 , a tragic stabbing attack  at a Taylor Swift-themed holiday club in Southport resulted in the deaths of three young girls. Eight other children and two adults were injured, with some still in critical condition. The perpetrator, identified as 17-year-old Axel Rudakubana, is now in custody until October 2024. Rudakubana, born and raised in the UK, and of Christian Rwandan heritage, had his identity initially withheld due to his age.  In the aftermath of the knife attack, social media accounts speculated that the attacker was a Muslim asylum seeker that recently arrived in the UK . This story is false, but was quickly picked up by rightwing groups, generating a stream of anti-immigrant and Islamophobic posts on social media, calling for the organization of anti-migrant riots . Plans of engaging in violent gatherings, including the locations and times for the riots, were spread on social media and messaging apps in advance to the riots.  One such riot took place on 30/07/2024 ,   when a large crowd clashed with the police  in Sunderland, resulting in more than 50 officers injured. Rioters threw bricks, fireworks, and rocks at a mosque, set a police car and a building on fire, and chanted "we want our country back." The unrest spread to several towns and cities  across England, like Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Nottingham, Bristol, and London. Rioters attacked migration centers  and hotels housing asylum seekers too.  To date, far-right riots have impacted around 20 towns and cities across the UK. On 02/08/2024 ,   Prime Minister Keir Starmer met with local leaders in Southport to discuss support for the local community, a day after he announced a new “ national capability ” to tackle disorder . The new measures will allow the sharing of intelligence, improved facial recognition technology and criminal behavior orders to restrict travel to troublemakers.  After chairing a second meeting of the emergency response committee on 05/08/2024 , Starmer reassured the public saying that perpetrators will be dealt with the “ full force of the law ”. Over 400 people have been arrested  since the riots started and around 100 people have already been charged  over the violent unrest.  On 07/08/2024,  after police warned of unrest from planned far-right rallies at 100 locations, thousands of counter-protesters   peacefully took to the streets  in over a dozen cities, in solidarity with immigrants and ethnic minorities. Forming human shields around asylum centers, they held  “refugees welcome”  signs and chanted “ there are many more of us than you ”. However, in most areas they found no far-right supporters to oppose. This was not the first such demonstration. Violent clashes between far-right rioters and  Muslim counter-protesters had already taken place a few days earlier in Bolton. Analysis: After a week of widespread unrest, the UK is facing the worst anti-immigrant violence since 2011 , when a deadly police shooting of a black British man in North London led to lengthy riots in the capital. Back then, it was again Keir Starmer, then Director of Public Prosecutions, who led the prosecutions of offenders. He is now facing a similar crisis just one month after his election, and he is responding in the same way, possibly allowing courts to be open for 24 hours. Disinformation campaigns focussing on immigration also played a key role during the time of the Brexit vote in 2016. Misinformation on the UK’s future as an economic success, dictatorial EU laws, immigration and crime were coupled with a surge of national pride. This has put a focus on the importance of English pride and resulted in the perception that immigrants would endanger English culture and traditions.   Prominent politicians within right wing groups in the UK have reacted to the riots in different ways. Many elected officials have completely condemned the anti-immigrant riots. However, while condemning the riots, some right wing politicians stated that the riots were evidence of the way in which migration was affecting UK society. It's mainly the head figures within far right groups and extreme right groups organized through online platforms that have been supportive of the riots and don’t refrain from the use of violence.  However, the majority of the society in the UK is not supporting the violent riots, with many people stressing that the rioters are not representative of the UK as a whole. The UK is currently experiencing the biggest increase in poverty since 30 years . People are facing rises in the costs of living, with healthy affordable food becoming less accessible. People feel stuck in a difficult situation and those negative feelings are acknowledged within the anti-immigrant rhetoric by projecting them onto the ‘other’ . Especially the leader of the far-right English Defence League , Stephen Yaxley-Lennon operating under the alias Tommy Robinson , has played a key role in spreading Islamophobic and anti-immigrant disinformation, calling for the deportation of immigrants and provoking violent riots. It is believed that Robinson has close links to the Kremlin.   The situation might develop in different ways. One scenario is of a heavy judicial response, and that the loose organizational structure of the riots may dissipate.  Hundreds of people have been arrested so far. Starmer has vowed to “ take all necessary measures ” to end the chaos. The UK's former head of counter-terrorism suggested treating the attacks as acts of terrorism. At present, police presence has been reinforced, thousands of specialist officers have already been deployed as a “standing army” to deal with more potential riots, and trouble hotspots.  However, challenges are likely to persist. UK prisons are facing an overcrowding problem. The UK Ministry of Justice reported on 02/08/2024  that only slightly more than a thousand spaces were available across prisons in England and Wales, following the Secretary of State for Justice announcement  that the UK prisons were on the point of collapse, and operating at 99% capacity, last July 2024. Underfunding of the UK's public services is an additional challenge for Starmer. Another possible scenario is that unrest will continue, evolve into mass rallies and riots against prosecuting demonstrators , as people who take part in acts of hatred form strong group identities. Large scale counter protests are taking place and rioters have already clashed with the counter protesters in various locations across the UK. As the counter protests are growing in size, there is a possibility that clashes between rioters and counter protesters will escalate in the near future.

Date:   06/08/2024 Location:   Bangladesh  Parties involved:   Students in Bangladesh, the Government of Bangladesh, Bangladesh National Party (BNP), Bangladesh Armed Forces What happened? On 05/08/2024 , Sheikh Hasina, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, announced her resignation and is residing in the Hindon Air Force station near Delhi.  This came after a month of protests in which security forces and members of the Awami League violently repressed demonstrators. The tipping point was her decision to crackdown on thousands of people protesting outside of her residence on 05/06/2024 . This prompted her powerful backers, the military and the garment industry tycoons to turn against her. Following talks with her family and her advisors, she handed in her resignation.    There are reports of extensive clashes between protesters and the authorities in Dhaka, particularly Bakshi Bazar, Banasree and Basundhara.  Attacks have also targeted cultural venues, television offices and parliament, as well as the former Awami League party offices in Dhaka. Without balancing the need for order and preventing further reprisals from the authorities, further violence could also occur in the coming days.  The July protesters began with demands to reform a quota for civil services jobs for the ruling party, the Awami League. After weeks of peaceful protest however, they became violent as authorities cracked down on protesters. The clashes with the authorities and demonstrators have led to over the deaths of 300 people, the worst bloodshed in Bangladesh’s recent history.  The demands turned to regime change as more than 20,000 protesters were injured. The protesters are demanding accountability for the violent suppression of the protests.  The EU and India have said that they are very concerned about the reports of attacks on minorities, places of worship and members of religious and ethnic minorities.  The situation remains volatile as the protests have picked up. The army and police are unwilling to act to repair basic order around the country.  The organization of the army is also in flux; the military has been reshuffled and five generals were put into retirement.  Analysis: The mass protests have produced a profound and historic political change in Bangladesh. While the country has often been touted as a success story of economic growth and export manufacturing, inequality is rampant and corruption between garment tycoons and political elites has been rampant. The Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had maintained power through cracking down violently on protesters, extrajudicial killings and rigged elections.  Previous attempts at protests, such as after the opposition-boycotted elections in January 2024, resulted in widespread repression on opponents and human rights violations.   The question remains about who will lead the country after she has left.  The current president of Bangladesh, Mohammed Shahbuddin ordered the release of opposition leader Khaleda Zia, the Bangladesh National Party (BNP) and said that all political parties had agreed to dissolve parliament and form a transitional government. It is notable that the BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami party were in talks, without the former ruling Awami League politicians. The students who played an instrumental role announced that they will not accept a candidate supported by the military, and have instead announced their own list of eligible candidates. One suggestion is the Nobel laureate Mohammah Yunus, the head of a development bank, as the chief advisor to the interim government.  The students also remain wary of relying too much on the military for the restoration of order, citing the military’s role in suppressing democratic processes in the past. On the other hand, there are some reports that there are divisions in the military elite over how to handle the ensuing protests, with some calling for a further crackdown, while others are calling for the demands of the protests to be recognised.   Sheikh Hasina’s future is an important factor for the future of Bangladesh's relationship with India. She initially fled to New Delhi and there are reports that she is trying to seek asylum in the UK, though the UK government has not so far accepted her argument. If she stays in India, it will be difficult for India to build ties with the new Bangladeshi government that may come to power after ousting her . PM Hasina has forged closer relations with India, due to its support for Bangladesh’s independence in 1971. She also received support from India due to her hard position toward anti-Indian armed groups operating the country.