Why risk assessments are crucial for every flight: lessons from the PS752 court decision

On August 11, 2025, the Ontario Court of Appeal upheld a landmark trial ruling that has profound consequences for global aviation. In N.S. v. Ukraine International Airlines (2025 ONCA 587), the court unanimously confirmed that Ukraine International Airlines (UIA) was negligent in allowing Flight PS752 to depart Tehran on January 8, 2020, when two Iranian missiles brought the aircraft down, killing all 176 passengers and crew.

The Court emphasized a fundamental point: airlines carry a duty to conduct thorough conflict-zone risk assessments before departure or overflight. UIA failed this duty, and as a result, the carrier was found fully liable under the Montreal Convention.

The core finding: negligence in risk assessment

Justice Akbarali’s trial decision, and now the Court of Appeal’s confirmation, makes clear that:

• Airlines cannot rely solely on airspace being “open”; regulatory permissions do not replace operator due diligence.

• A thorough, timely risk assessment was expected before allowing PS752 to depart.

• Even a short delay to gather intelligence on the volatile situation in Tehran could have prevented tragedy.
  

This ruling sets a new precedent: if airlines fail to perform conflict-zone or overflight risk assessments, liability may be unlimited.

This goes beyond flight PS752

Aviation operates in a world where geopolitical tensions, conflicts, and state-based threats evolve rapidly. In recent years we have seen:

• Surface-to-air missile incidents not only in Iran but also in Ukraine (MH17) and other regions.

• Regional conflicts where sudden escalations threaten civil aviation—examples include the Red Sea, Iraq, Sudan, and Syria.

• Airspace restrictions that are inconsistently applied, leaving operators with gaps in official guidance.
  

This means that every operator, commercial airlines, business aviation, and cargo carriers, must actively assess risks when planning routes or departures.

The broader lesson: safety and duty of care

For operators, the PS752 case reinforces several key principles:

• Regulators alone cannot guarantee safety.  Operators must take responsibility for assessing real-time intelligence.

• Duty of care extends beyond compliance.  Families, clients, and insurers expect proactive safety measures, not reactive excuses.

• Risk assessments protect business continuity.  A single catastrophic incident can destroy not only lives but also reputations, partnerships, and financial stability.
  

What proper risk assessment looks like

A robust risk assessment process should include:

• Monitoring geopolitical intelligence and real-time developments.

• Consulting with aviation security experts who understand state threats and conflict dynamics.

• Evaluating airspace overflight risks based on weapon ranges, military activity, and recent incidents.

• Documenting the decision-making process, demonstrating why a flight was routed, delayed, or cancelled.
  

In short: airlines must be able to show their work.

Conclusion: a turning point for aviation security

The Ontario Court of Appeal’s decision sends a clear message: aviation safety cannot rely on luck, nor on minimal compliance. Operators have a legal, moral, and operational obligation to perform conflict-zone and destination risk assessments.

At Dyami Security Intelligence, we see this daily: proactive intelligence and structured assessments not only protect passengers and crew, they protect the very viability of aviation businesses. The PS752 tragedy reminds us all that failure to act can have irreversible consequences.

About the author

Eric Schouten is the Founder & CEO of Dyami Security Intelligence, a Netherlands-based firm specializing in travel risk management, aviation security, and geopolitical intelligence. With a background in the Dutch intelligence services and extensive aviation security experience, Eric has been directly involved in high-impact crises such as the MH17 disaster, and played a role in founding the Dutch expert group on information sharing for airlines, which enhanced cooperation between carriers and government agencies.

He is also actively involved with IBAC (International Business Aviation Council) and other aviation organisations like the European Business Aviation Association, where he regularly teaches and advises on conflict-zone risk management and overflight security.

As a recognized subject matter expert and international speaker on overflight risks, Eric supports airlines, business jet operators, and global corporations in navigating today’s volatile security environment. His mission is to make world-class intelligence and risk management accessible, proactive, and people-centric.