Intel Brief: Tensions rise (again) in Bosnia and Herzegovina

casper4871
9 hours ago
4 min read

Date: 08/08/2025 (15:00 UTC+2)

Where? Bosnia and Herzegovina; Republika Srpska

Historic context:

On 14/12/1995, the Dayton Accords (officially the General Framework Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and
Herzegovina) was signed between the newly established states of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Croatia and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, which at this point in history consisted of modern-day Serbia and Montenegro after the other former Yugoslav republics had declared independence.
The Dayton Accords ended the Bosnian War that had raged between 1992 and 1995, and saw the country being divided into two parts: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina on one side (gray on the map below), and the Republika Srpska (RS) on the other (red), encompassing areas populated primarily by ethnic Serbs.
Despite the fact that a formal peace was signed between the former Yugoslav republics, tensions persisted, primarily in BiH, between the Bosniaks (Bosnian muslims), ethnic Croats (mostly in the south) and ethnic Serbs. Grievances from the 1992-1995 war continued to fuel political disputes, ethnic segregation and occasional outbursts of unrest.

What happened?

On 06/08/2025, Milorad Dodik, leader of RS, was dismissed from office by the Bosnian election commission. He promptly declared that he would disregard the commission’s ruling and expressed his intention to hold a referendum on his mandate.
However, this latest wave of unrest in the young republic is part of a long-standing pattern of rising tensions between the country’s ethnic groups, particularly between Serbs and Bosniaks, who largely reside in separate administrative units.
The election commission’s decision follows a court order made on 26/02/2025, which convicted Dodik to a one-year prison sentence and a six-year ban on holding public office. This verdict was the result of a long-standing conflict between Dodik and the international High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt. The High Representative’s function is to oversee the civilian implementation of the Dayton Agreement. He or she has the authority to impose laws and sack officials. Dodik was convicted for defying the High Representative by enacting laws in RS that blocked the implementation of the High Representative’s decisions and Bosnia’s constitutional court rulings—an act deemed an assault on the country’s constitutional order.
Dodik responded that the verdict was ‘politically motivated’, driven by ‘racial and national hatred [against Serbs]’ and implying an agenda driven by Western actors against him, but also against the Serbs in general. He vowed not to recognize the authority of the judiciary in Sarajevo.
Shortly after, on 26/02/2025, Dodik announced that RS would adopt a series of laws aimed at effectively severing the administrative region from Bosnia’s state institutions. Among them was a law prohibiting the Bosnian Prosecutor’s Office from operating within the RS. Decisions made by Bosnian courts would no longer be recognized in the Serb-majority entity, and Bosnian intelligence and security services would also be barred from operating on RS territory.
Amidst the escalating tensions between RS and BiH, RS adopted a new draft constitution on 15/03/2025, granting the territory expanded decision-making powers. A key provision of the draft is the elimination of the Council of Peoples, a body meant to protect the rights of BiH’s ethnic groups.
On 27/03/2025, Bosnia issued an international arrest warrant for Dodik.
On 23/04/2025, Bosnian state police (SIPA) attempted to arrest Dodik in East-Sarajevo, which is part of RS. Local police instead prevented the arrest.
Despite the arrest warrant, Dodik made public appearances in Banja Luka, the RS capital, travelled to Serbia and maintained certain allies, such as Serbia’s Aleksandar Vučić, Russia’s Putin and Hungary’s Orban. The latter also stood up for Dodik after his conviction, calling it a ‘political witch hunt’.
Tensions somewhat eased on 04/07/2025, when, after several failed arrest attempts, Dodik was pressured into appearing for questioning before prosecutors, which led the state court to lift the arrest warrant. Instead, restrictions were imposed, such as mandatory police check-ins.
On 01/08/2025, it was reported that the earlier court verdict on 26/02/2025 would be upheld and that Dodik would be stripped of the RS presidency and receive a jail sentence.

Analysis

The political crisis surrounding Dodik highlights the persistent tensions between the RS and the central government in Sarajevo, with each side backed by its own allies. BiH — a state essentially shaped by the Dayton Accords and still overseen by the High Representative — faces ongoing disputes as RS and Dodik increasingly clash with both the High Representative and Sarajevo over actions taken within RS. Instead, they are turning toward alternative partners (usually those ideologically opposed to the West) such as Hungary, Russia, and Serbia, refusing to recognise the legitimacy of Bosnia’s constitution and portraying efforts at BiH state-building as part of a Western witch hunt driven by hatred against the Serbs.

As a response to the clash between RS and Sarajevo, RS has introduced a series of laws creating parallel RS institutions and restricting state-level bodies from operating within its territory, essentially isolating the RS from BiH’s state institutions. These measures, combined with the adoption of a new draft constitution, illustrate an attempt to de facto break from BiH, either laying the groundwork for a future secession or functioning as a parallel state in all but name.

Conclusion

The latest round of tensions largely reflects the pattern of unrest which has gripped Bosnia and Herzegovina since its independence, the direct result of the devastating civil war that took place between 1992 and 1995. The ethnic division of the country, as ‘designed’ in the Dayton Accords, may have temporarily eased hostilities, but it was never a sustainable foundation for long-term stability in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as mutual distrust and ethnonationalism remain widespread. Instead of solving underlying tensions, the Dayton Accords entrenched ethnic divisions within the country’s political architecture

The result was a country where - despite being united - ethnic distrust always remained an obstacle to statebuilding. Instead of compromising, voters in both entities have elected nationalist leaders who prioritize ethnonationalist agendas, perpetuating divisions rather than fostering unity. Milorad Dodik fits this trend, as he consistently uses divisive and nationalist rhetoric. This pattern is mirrored among Bosniak leaders as well, such as Haris Silajdžić, who similarly advocated for positions rooted in ethnic nationalism.

The latest outburst of tensions is a symptom of a much broader problem in Bosnia and Herzegovina, one without a quick or simple solution. How Milorad Dodik will respond to his sentence remains uncertain, but regardless of his reaction, there is a real risk that it could further deepen internal divisions and spark renewed instability, not only within Bosnia and Herzegovina but across the wider Balkan region as well.