Intel Brief: Risk of escalation in the Middle East

alessia988
Jun 12
4 min read

Date: 12/06/2025

Countries highlighted in orange may be directly involved in the potential escalation.

Countries outlined in light blue are countries from where the US removed non-essential staff.

Context:

The United States has begun withdrawing many non-essential personnel from its posts in the Middle East, amid growing concerns of significant destabilization in the region. Recent reports suggest a potential escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel, which could involve Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. In response, Iran may target Israeli military installations or US military bases in nearby countries.
While the possibility of a land war remains minimal, attacks may be carried out through airspace over Iraq and Jordan as previously seen, with missiles and military aircraft involved.
Israel has repeatedly threatened to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities to prevent the Islamic Republic from acquiring nuclear weapons. However, with US-Iran negotiations having reached a current stalemate, Israel may now feel compelled to act.

Developments supporting the possibility of increased tensions since 11 June 2025:

US Special Envoy Witkoff is set to meet Iran’s foreign minister Araghchi in Oman on 15/06/2025 amid rising tensions. Witkoff is also said to meet Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Dermer and Mossad Director Barnea ahead of the negotiations.
On 12/06/2025, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations. The resolution cited Iran’s repeated failures to comply with its Safeguards Agreement, particularly regarding undeclared nuclear activities and materials at multiple undisclosed locations. In response to the resolution, Iran denounced it as ‘politically driven’ and followed up on their recently made threats by announcing the launch of a third enrichment facility and upgrade of centrifuges to advanced IR-6 models.
Following the heightened tensions, on 12/06/2025 Iran started large-scale military exercises across the country.
On 11/06/2025, the US Embassy in Iraq officially ordered the departure of all non-essential staff from its embassy in Baghdad.
The same day the US State Department also authorized the voluntary departure of non-essential personnel from its embassies in Bahrain, UAE and Kuwait (1, 2, 3).
On 11/06/2025, United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) warned of increased tensions in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, advising maritime vessels and crews to take extra precautions when transiting the area. Israel-affiliated merchant shipping is assessed to be at heightened risk of reciprocal military action.
On 11/06/2025, Iran's Defence Minister Nasirzadeh warned of strikes on US airbases in the Middle East if conflict breaks out with the US.
On 11/06/2025, US officials were told Israel is "ready to launch an operation into Iran" according to media reports (1, 2).
Following five rounds of negotiation talks between the US and Iran, the US presented a nuclear deal proposal to Iran on 31/05/2025, which would require Iran to eventually halt all uranium enrichment. Iran announced it would not accept this proposal on 04/06/2025 stagnating the negotiations, but later announced on 10/06/2025 that they would soon present a counter-proposal for a nuclear deal in response to the US proposal.
On 20/05/2025, US intelligence reports emerged indicating that Israel may be preparing for a military strike. The assessment was reportedly based on both public and private statements by senior Israeli officials, intercepted communications, and observed military movements suggesting the possibility of imminent action.

Consequences of an escalation for aviation:

Some major western airlines seem to have re-routed their flights from Iraq [ORBB/Baghdad FIR] to Saudi Arabia [OEJD/Jeddah FIR]. In April and October 2024, as tensions between Iran and Israel escalated, the airspace over Iraq was used for transit during multiple missile and drones attacks between the two countries. In the event of a renewed escalation, it is likely that this airspace will be used again for such attacks or potentially closed entirely by Iraq. As a result, increased traffic is expected in the Jeddah FIR.

In case the conflict escalates beyond reciprocal strikes between Israel and Iran, to include the US involvement in strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation on American targets in the region, a wider disruption is to be expected. The US authorized the ‘voluntary departure’ of dependents of US personnel from Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. These countries host several military installations. This could involve the temporary closure of the OMAE/Emirates FIR, OBBB/Bahrain FIR, OKAC/Kuwait FIR, and OIIX/Tehran FIR, or the implementation of temporary rerouting measures to avoid heightened risk airspaces.

If no re-routing and no airspace closure occur, operators should keep into account a heightened overflight risk stemming from surface-to-air systems and possibly cruise missiles and rockets, especially on approach and take off in airports in the region. High levels of GPS jamming are also to be expected. A thorough risk assessment would be needed before operating in the mentioned FIRs.

Consequences of an escalation for maritime traffic:

At the time of writing, no significant modifications of maritime traffic patterns through the Middle East were seen on open-sources. However, a potential escalation could impact shipping routes, especially around the Arabian peninsula. During previous escalations, the closure of the Persian Gulf was a serious concern. This would lead to supply chain disruptions and an increase of shipping prices, also affecting commodity prices. Caution is advised when operating in the Gulf of Oman, Strait of Hormuz, and Persian Gulf. GPS interference can also be expected.

The closure or avoidance of the Persian Gulf would also increase traffic in the Red Sea and Suez Canal. In case of an escalation, the Houthis are likely to carry out missiles and drone strikes aimed at Israeli and American ships and potentially those of other Western states throughout the Red Sea.

Recommendations:

Review and communicate crisis management plans.
Establish reliable communication with stakeholders, partners and staff.
Monitor official advisories issued by foreign diplomatic missions in the country where you are located.
Prepare for possible operational disruptions, applying contingency plans as needed.
Prepare for a quick departure.