Intel Brief: October 7 Anniversary Poses Heightened Security Risk

gregorio46
5 days ago
3 min read

Date: 03/10/2025

What happened?

Soon, the second anniversary of the 2023 October 7th attack will take place on Tuesday, 07/10/2025.
We expect an increased risk of attacks by either Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran or others on this day. On the same day last year, on 07/10/2024, Hamas carried out a rocket barrage at targets in Israel. Six days earlier, on 01/10/2024, Iran launched around 200 ballistic missiles against Israel, under Operation True Promise II. The environment has changed significantly over the past year, with Hamas having lost most of its capabilities to launch rocket barrages, Iran likely aiming to avoid a re-escalation following June’s Twelve-Day War, and Hezbollah now facing a potential forced disarmament. Nevertheless, affiliated groups and individuals may still carry out attacks within Israel and among Jewish communities.
Potential targets may include Israel and its strategic assets, but threats could also extend more broadly to Jewish communities worldwide, such as schools, synagogues, or other sites connected to Judaism.
Recent incidents support the threat of increased risks. On 01/10/2025, it was reported that German security forces had arrested three suspected Hamas members accused of preparing a serious act of violence against Jewish targets in Germany.
On 02/10/2025, Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the year in Judaism, took place. On that same day, a terror attack on Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue in Manchester, England, led to two people being killed. The attacker was killed by police.
These threats occur against the backdrop of the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which continues to polarize global opinion. In particular, the expansion of IDF operations in Gaza, the leveling of most residential buildings in the city and the resulting humanitarian crisis - with widespread hunger and tens of thousands of casualties as a consequence - have intensified criticism of Israel’s actions. Many now view these operations as unlawful and in violation of human rights, leading to a stronger shift in public opinion toward the Palestinian cause.
Consequently, anger could be directed at Jewish people who may be perceived—rightly or wrongly—as complicit, potentially increasing the number of individuals susceptible to carrying out attacks.

Analysis

The upcoming second anniversary of the October 7, 2023, attack, falling on next Tuesday, presents a heightened risk of violence in the form of potential attacks from Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, or affiliated groups on this date. Attacks from non-affiliated individuals acting independently may also occur. These attacks, often due to the perpetrator's lack of affiliation with a known group and the lack of coordination with other cells that may already be known to authorities, can be harder to prevent. While Israel and its strategic assets remain primary targets, threats could extend more broadly to Jewish communities worldwide, including synagogues, schools, and other locations associated with Jewish identity. On October 1, 2025, German authorities arrested three men suspected of planning a serious attack on Jewish targets in Germany on behalf of Hamas. On October 2nd, a terrorist attack outside the Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue in Manchester during Yom Kippur, a Jewish holy day, resulted in two fatalities and several injuries. These attacks demonstrate the importance of anniversaries for politically motivated attacks, providing both symbolic significance and operational motivation for extremist groups. Attacks may also be directed against IDF-manned checkpoints, with the latest such attack occurring on 02/10/2025 (with no victims besides the assailants). A similar attack also occurred on 18/09/2025, when a Jordanian truck driver opened fire against two IDF soldiers at the Allenby/King Hussein Bridge, between Jordan and the West Bank.

The current state of affairs surrounding Israel also contributes to an increase in the risk of attacks. The expansion of IDF operations in Gaza, including the leveling of most residential buildings, has triggered a severe humanitarian crisis, with widespread hunger and tens of thousands of casualties. These events have intensified criticism of Israel’s actions, with many regarding them as unlawful and in violation of human rights. In this charged environment, anger could be directed at Jewish people who may be perceived as complicit, potentially increasing the number of individuals inspired or radicalized to carry out attacks. Given these factors, potential targets may include Israeli institutions and diplomatic missions, as well as Jewish schools, synagogues, and cultural centers in Europe, North America, and beyond. Extremist motivations are likely to be multifaceted, combining ideological, retaliatory, and symbolic objectives.

Conclusion

The combination of symbolic anniversaries, recent arrests and attacks, and ongoing regional tensions underscores a heightened threat environment around October 7, 2025. Extremist groups and radicalized individuals may enshrine this date to target both Israeli and Jewish sites globally, and the current humanitarian and political context increases the risk of attacks being carried out or inspired. Vigilance, preparedness, and reinforced security measures remain essential to mitigate potential threats.