Intel Brief: Increase of airspace incursions throughout Europe

casper4871
37 minutes ago
5 min read

Date: 25/11/2025 (16:30 UTC+01:00)

Where?

Europe; Romania, Moldova, the Netherlands, Lithuania. Belgium, Sweden, Germany

What happened?
On 25/11/2025, six Russian drones crossed Moldovan and Romanian airspace during a large strike on Ukraine. One crashed near the village of Etulia, with at least one drone tracked heading toward the Romanian border. Romanian air defence remained on alert after previous incursions. The Romanian MoD reported two drone incursions from Ukraine, triggering warnings and scrambles of German Typhoons (from Romanian Air Force 57th Mihail Kogălniceanu air base) and Romanian F‑16s (from Romanian Air Force 86th Borcea Air Base). The type of drones has not been disclosed, but almost certainly entails a long‑range, military‑grade Russian attack/loitering munitions such as Shahed‑type (Geran‑2) or similar UAVs used in mass strikes on Ukraine.
One drone was later found crashed in a backyard in Vaslui country, a region bordering Moldova. It had likely run out of fuel. According to Romanian authorities, the drone was not carrying an explosive load. This was the deepest drone breach yet into Romania; the 13th since the start of the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2022. Another drone was found on the roof of a building in Cuhureștii de Jos, Florești district, Moldova (see photo below).

This incident was just the latest of a recent string of airspace incursions all over Europe which had been going on for weeks. On the night of 23/11/2025 to 24/11/2025, Lithuania’s Vilnius Airport had to close for a short time twice because unidentified balloons were moving towards its airspace, diverting some incoming flights to other cities. This followed earlier incidents in October, when other unidentified balloons entered the capital’s airspace from Belarus’, which disrupted about 30 flights. Lithuanian officials linked this to earlier balloon incursions from the direction of Belarus and tightened a 90‑km no‑fly zone along the border. This was lifted on 19/11/2025, but may again be imposed due to the latest incident.
Earlier, on 22/11/2025, the Dutch MoD stated that its forces had fired on a drone in the vicinity of Volkel Air Base in Noord-Brabant, in the south of the Netherlands. This was a serious security incident, as American nuclear arms are stored at said air base. This incident does not entail the same type of drones such as the Shaheds, but more likely a small to medium‑sized remotely‑piloted or commercially derived drone (multirotor or small fixed‑wing), operated locally. In other words - those you can buy at the shop.
On 18/11/2025, the Romanian MoD detected a drone in their airspace travelling to Ukraine - triggering an alert and leading to fighter jets being scrambled to combat the threat. No debris was found; it is likely that the drone was able to continue its voyage to Ukraine uninterrupted.
On 06/11/2025, drone sightings over Gothenburg‑Landvetter Airport in Sweden forced diversions to Copenhagen and other cities. This again concerned a commercial civilian-type drone.
Also on 06/11/2025, operations at Hanover Airport in Germany were halted for about 45 minutes after an unidentified drone was sighted in the vicinity of the airport. Three flights were delayed or redirected; operations resumed shortly after. At the time of writing, it is unclear what happened to the drone.
Earlier in November, Belgium had several drone sightings over airports and other military or strategic locations. On 04/11/2025 drones were spotted over Zaventem airport, resulting in dozens of canceled flights. Earlier, drones were also observed over Kleine Brogel military airbase. Additional reports have come from other airports, including Ostend, Deurne (Antwerp), and to a lesser extent Charleroi, Florennes, and Schaffen. Some reports, such as those at Deurne, were later retracted after investigation. On 09/11/2025, drones were spotted over the Doel nuclear power plant. Following these incidents, the UK deployed an extra anti-drone team to Belgium.
On 02/11/2025, flights were briefly suspended at Germany’s Bremen airport - also because a drone was flying overhead.

These incidents are just from November 2025 - they followed months in which drone sightings over airports in Europe became so frequent that they even got their own Wikipedia page. Again, it is important to make the distinction between the long-range military grade drones used against Ukraine and civilian drones. The Romania-incidents, mostly fallout from the Ukraine War, concern the first category, while the airport incursions are because of the latter.

Analysis and conclusion

The recent wave of airspace incursions across Europe - from Russian military-grade drones straying into Romanian and Moldovan territory to mysterious balloon intrusions over Lithuania and unexplained (civilian) drone activity at airports and military installations in Sweden, Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands - is a troubling pattern and once again highlights the vulnerability of European aviation security.

It has to be noted first that attribution remains uncertain in many of these incidents. Despite many fingers immediately pointing to Moscow as culpable, this has not been confirmed. Identifying the perpetrators behind such actions is also incredibly difficult, raising questions about whether attribution is even worth pursuing. What is clear, however, is that these incidents are consistent with grey-zone tactics designed to test defenses, generate uncertainty, and demonstrate the inadequacy of current measures and protocols, often used by geopolitical adversaries. These pretty simple incursions have caused disruptions, public confusion, and have threatened critical strategic assets.

It appears that Europe remains unprepared in light of these threats. The current response frameworks, which comes down to scrambling fighter jets to intercept drones or closing airports each time an unidentified object appears, is operationally unsustainable and incredibly costly. Fighter aircraft are expensive, resource-intensive assets poorly suited to countering small, cheap drones that may simply run out of fuel and crash harmlessly. The fact that one Russian drone was recovered intact in a Romanian backyard, carrying no payload, illustrates the limited immediate threat of individual incursions and the disproportionate response they trigger. However, doing nothing also comes at a considerable cost, as it gives malicious actors carte blanche to violate NATO-airspace. There is also a risk that pilots may misjudge whether a drone carries a payload, potentially choosing not to shoot it down to avoid collateral damage, only for that assessment to be proven incorrect. This creates a challenging dilemma for NATO partners, forcing them to choose between costly overreaction and potentially dangerous inaction—precisely the kind of no-win complacency scenario that makes this an effective grey-zone tactic.

As these incidents appear to be escalating in frequency and geographic spread, European nations require urgent investment in dedicated counter-drone systems, improved detection networks, and coordinated response protocols that don't rely on mobilizing fighter aircraft for every intrusion. Without necessary adaptation, Europe will remain reactive and vulnerable to continued exploitation of its airspace, whether by potential state actors testing boundaries or by the spillover effects of the war in Ukraine.