Intel Brief: Assessing US military flights towards the Middle East amid rumours of a US attack on Iran
- casper4871
- Oct 2
- 5 min read
Report date: 01/10/2025
Where: EU, Mediterranean and Middle Eastern airspace
Who is involved: US military, US government, NATO militaries, Turkey
What is happening?
Unverified online reports and posts on social media have claimed that the United States is preparing airstrikes on Iran, citing screenshots and data from flight tracking platforms. However, a thorough review shows no evidence of planned large-scale military operations against Iran.
Information on US military cargo flights over European, Mediterranean and Middle Eastern airspace suggests there has been little change in numbers between the last two weeks of September and August, with around 109 flights in September compared with 97 in August.
The slight increase in cargo flights appears linked to several military exercises in Europe, including the week-long Decisive North 25 in Belgium, a large multinational NATO-related exercise in Germany and the Neptune Strike exercises in the Adriatic Sea, as well as two additional exercises, all of which involved US forces.
No significant rhetoric from either Iran or the United States during September has indicated an increased likelihood of confrontation, suggesting that tensions have remained unchanged from previous months.
In the 13 days leading up to the US airstrikes on Iran on 22 June, at least 160 US military transport aircraft were identified flying through European, Mediterranean and Middle Eastern airspace. This compares with 109 flights recorded in the final 13 days of September, and 97 in the final 13 days of August, suggesting a significantly lower movement of assets compared to June.
Analysis
The higher number of US military flights in September is consistent with scheduled exercises and routine rotations rather than preparation for operations against Iran. While open source data indicates about 565 US military flights in September compared with about 450 in August and 412 in July, 109 cargo movements were logged in the final 13 days of September versus 97 in the same August window, while the 13 days before the 22 June strikes on Iran saw at least 160 transports, through to be transporting air-defence assets (e.g. Patriot batteries) and other armament types to support the airstrikes. Additionally, September saw five military exercises in Europe compared to only two major ones in August. Taken together the pattern points to support and recovery of exercise forces rather than a pre-strike surge.
The exercise schedule provides the operational context for this traffic and explains the additional lift and tanker tasking observed. US military exercises in Europe during September included the following:
Neptune Strike 2025: Large-scale multilateral exercises were held in the Adriatic Sea between 22 and 26 September, involving more than 10,000 personnel from the naval, air and land forces of 13 countries. The exercise featured the USS Gerald R. Ford and the command-and-control ship USS Mount Whitney, alongside vessels from Turkey, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Poland, Italy and others. Assets included amphibious assault ships, submarines, frigates and reconnaissance aircraft, with the focus on combined operations across multiple domains.
Decisive North 25: Smaller in scale than the other two military exercises, this drill was held at Kleine-Brogel Air Base in Belgium with the participation of the US 701st Munitions Support Squadron and the Belgian Air Force’s 10th Tactical Wing. It was designed to prepare aircrews for high-stakes scenarios and included handling unexploded ordnance as well as rapid-response exercises for specific situations.
Saber Junction 25: A NATO-related exercise in Germany ran from 14 August to 21 September, bringing together more than 7,000 participants and around 1,000 vehicles from 15 countries, including the United States. The exercises involved infantry and other ground forces and required extensive supply and transport routes both within Europe and across the Atlantic from the United States.
Quadriga 2025: Germany led multinational naval exercises in the Baltic Sea from 29 August to 12 September, focusing on countering threats from the air, sea and land and on improving coordination between forces. The United States, France, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and other allies also took part.
MASCAL 2025: Chaplain and religious affairs teams from the United States military based in Italy, Germany and Belgium carried out exercises at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, practising mass casualty scenarios. Between 15 and 19 September, around 120 US Army and Air Force chaplains took part alongside 45 counterparts from other NATO members. Additional training was also conducted at the nearby Sembach Kaserne military base.
Tanker activity supports the same interpretation. Coronet transits present as grouped KC-135 and KC-46 sorties escorting fighter elements across the Atlantic into established hubs for exercise participation and rotations. There is no sustained rise in tanker loitering near contested airspace, no unusual forward dispersal of fighters identified and no change in activity such as persistent AWACS coverage or electronic warfare platforms. Routing and timing appear to follow routine tracks and established airspace arrangements. A modest increase in tankers and reconnaissance platforms may also reflect ongoing support to NATO allies along the Baltic region and in Poland, including air policing, deterrence patrols and reinforcement exercises.
A Lakenheath-based US F-15 Eagle flying near Mildenhall-based KC-135 tankers engaged in regular air-to-air refuelling exercises over the UK on 28 September
Daily number of US military flights in the Mediterranean, UK, EU and Middle Eastern airspace between May and September 2025
A review of cargo mix and routing is consistent with deployment and redeployment cycles. Movements concentrate on Ramstein, Moron, Rota, Aviano, Lakenheath, Spangdahlem, Sigonella and Souda Bay with return flights that match exercise schedules. Loads align with personnel rotation, spares, munitions resupply and exercise support rather than forward staging for combat. There is no parallel surge of specialist enablers such as Rivet Joint, stand off strike fleets or a bomber task force and no unusual basing activity that would indicate an impending operation. Additionally, only one Carrier Strike Group, the USS Nimitz is currently operating in Middle Eastern waters, compared to at least two during the June confrontation leading up to the US airstrikes on Iran.
US military cargo flights towards the Middle East on 20 June 2025 during the height of the Israel-Iran confrontation
Looking ahead
A United States confrontation with Iran cannot be ruled out, but current indicators point away from an imminent move. September saw no material escalation in public rhetoric from Washington or Tehran and US strategic attention remains focused on Ukraine and developments around Venezuela. The air picture is best explained by support to scheduled training and routine posture management in Europe.
An increase in cargo sorties on its own does not imply preparations for operations. Historic build ups feature a marked rise in tankers and fighters, the forward movement of specialised enablers and munitions, visible command and control activity and political signalling that frames intent. Those elements are not present. The prudent assessment is that current US air movements reflect the support and return of assets for planned exercises and readiness cycles rather than the opening phase of a new operation.
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