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Control over the production of advanced digital technologies is an intensifying field of interest in international security. To approach this, the Biden administration has proposed a ‘Chip 4 Alliance’ to promote semiconductor supply chain security in East Asia, in addition to the comprehensive sanctions intending to cripple China’s technological development launched in October 2022. The success of the unilateral sanctions depends crucially on mobilizing support among the United States’ allies which are vital links in the semiconductor supply chain. Yet the proposed alliance faces acute difficulties in coming to an agreement. Amid regional rivalries, a lack of a shared approach toward China, and a diverging view of business interests, could the new US sanctions push forward a Chip 4 Alliance? What’s Behind the Chip 4 Alliance? The United States push for the Chip 4 Alliance stems from their concerns over China’s increasing technological capabilities. Beijing became acutely aware of its dependencies on overseas technologies when the US prevented Huawei from purchasing needed American software and hardware in 2019. According to a report by Nikkei Asia, China has responded by creating internal agencies of industry leaders and political officials with the aim of becoming self-sufficient in semiconductor capacities. Companies with established links with Chinese industry leaders, such as Chinese Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, are developing new capabilities. On 7 October, the United States imposed far-reaching sanctions on China’s tech sector. These unilateral restrictions are intended to slow China’s technological progress with tight controls on high-end chip transfers between US firms and China subsidiaries. Penalties are intended to curtail key choke points and place a broad set of constraints on technological transfer that could be used for military purposes. Additionally, the United States claims China’s technological development is used in human rights abuses. Example of the close links between China’s tech companies and the security state are the widespread surveillance of Uyghur, Kazakh and other Muslim minorities in China. The US recognizes that stunting China’s technological development requires cooperation from its allies in East Asia. South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan are home to the world’s most advanced stages of the semiconductor supply chain and their companies sell, produce, and rely on China’s industrial centers for semiconductors. The Chip 4 Alliance would enable governments and semiconductor companies to coordinate policies on supply chain security, workforce development, research, and subsidies. The priority is to develop standards intended to limit China’s domestic semiconductor development. Unresolved Issues The Chip 4 Alliance has struggled to take off. Internal rifts between South Korea and Japan remain with an ongoing trade dispute over the historical legacies of the Second World War. In 2018, previous South Korean President Moon Jae-In ordered two Japanese companies to pay compensation for forced labor during Japan’s occupation of the Korean peninsula between 1910 and 1945. Both Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korea’s newly elected president Yoon are attempting to cool relations in the interest of regional security. Yet both presidents are treading lightly to avoid nationalist issues coming to the fore. South Korea’s Democratic Party of Korea is sensitive to Japan-South Korean relations and Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party has a conservative wing resistant to rekindling relations. Under the Yoon administration, South Korea has avoided overtly politicizing economic relations with China. President Yoon has pushed for ‘mutual respect’ with China and is pursuing closer military relations with the US. Yet South Korean policymakers recognize that joining an alliance would harm its relationship with China. In August, China and South Korea established a Collaborative Supply Chain Council aimed at reducing disruptions in bilateral trade. While it is an essential partner in the semiconductor supply chain, joining the Alliance might push China to refuse to cooperate with South Korea over key issues. With North Korea’s escalating nuclear missiles tests, South Korea acknowledges that China is the only country with influence over its neighbor. Multinationals are also resistant to sharing information with rivals in the fiercely competitive electronics sector. Samsung Foundry has resisted sharing materials or designs which could be used by their rivals like Taiwanese TSMC or US-based Intel. More problematically, China remains the largest production hub as well as the largest market for vast multinational firms. For a region where the Cold War never truly ended, the powerful business interests driving internationalized production networks known as ‘Factory Asia’ have always been conducted in the context of ‘hot economics, cold politics.’ Without a substantial change in regional security, the powerful business lobbies are unwilling to permanently damage their competitiveness for national security. Changing Security Architecture in East Asia? A Forecast With the recent US sanctions, the slow pace of the Chip 4 Alliance could be changing. Multinationals with subsidiaries in China will face tough export controls on exporting back to the US. Japanese firms are facing difficulties in exporting to the States in light of US sanctions and may attempt to hedge supply chain security over competitiveness. In the long-term, planning for the fallout of an invasion of Taiwan could be a prudent business decision. Moreover, the fear of Chinese economic sanctions against tech multinationals could be overblown. Chinese economic pressure has been aimed at commodities with easy substitutes such as iron ore and primary commodities. Would China’s leadership seriously consider economic sanctions on companies that are vital to securing a position in the fiercely competitive semiconductor sector? Yet China’s economic weight and regional tensions still play a vital role. China makes up the fastest-growing market for semiconductor demand, as well as where most production is located. Companies are slow behind national governments in perceiving China as a strategic competitor as they still invest heavily in the country, where China’s economy has moved from low-cost assembly to rapidly adopt new skills and technology. However, East Asian states do share US concerns over China’s military modernization and see it as an immediate security threat. North Korea’s massive escalation in nuclear weaponry, competition in the South China Sea, and the prospect of an invasion of Taiwan in this decade will make security policymakers fear resolutely taking a firm joint (economic) stance with the United States. Ultimately, the Chip 4 Alliance has profound implications for security in the Taiwan Strait. Enhancing cooperation between US allies could improve supply chain security and information sharing in the semiconductor industry. Yet achieving technological dominance in semiconductors is the ultimate goal of Xi Jinping's techno-security state. Forming a Chip 4 Alliance could stunt the Chinese Communist Party’s technological development in the long term. Systematically locked out of semiconductor ambitions, the CCP could decide that the economic fallout from an invasion of Taiwan’s semiconductor sector is a small price to pay for the rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation. While it is too soon to gauge China’s response, the mutually assured economic destruction of an invasion of Taiwan could become too one-sided to be effective. About the author: Jacob Dickinson Jacob studied Global Political Economy at Leiden University. He is passionate about international development and is looking to expand his expertise in geopolitics and crisis management. Curious about other cultures, he has travelled in Europe and Asia for both academic study and professional purposes. His expertise includes subjects like the geopolitics of energy, China’s international political economy, and the implications of globalized supply chains for industrial policy. He is particularly interested in the evolving political and economic relationships between China and ASEAN, and the consequences for regional development and security.

Date: 10/10/2022. 2100hrs. Location: Moldova, Black Sea. Parties involved: Russian Government, Russian Navy, and Moldovan Government. The Event: At 0600hrs on 08/10/2022, the Crimean Bridge was critically damaged with explosives [Right Image.]. While the cause of the blast is unclear, it has rendered the road bridge and adjacent railway head unusable for Russian military logistics. In retaliation, at 0800hrs on 10/10/2022, the Russian MOD fired volleys of guided rocket systems in Ukrainian cities, most notably Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kyiv, and Lviv [Left Image]. In order to hit Khmelnytskyi, the Russian Navy fired 3x Sea borne guided munitions from the black sea, which penetrated Moldovan Airspace. While most of Moldovan Airspace has been closed since 24/02/2022, flights from international carriers to LUKK/Chisinau airport have been permitted access by Moldovan ATC. Russian MOD announced later in the morning of 10/10/2022 that these rocket strikes, totaling 70+, were in retaliation to the Crimean Bridge attack. Buildings housing prominent international entities such as the German Consulate, Samsung, and Kyiv’s thermal power plant were hit and geo-located within hours. Analysis and implications: The recent rocket attacks pose an immediate and deliberate attempt by the Russian MOD to destabilize the security of the airspaces overlapping the Black Sea. Due to the civilian nature of the targets, it is likely that respect for International Conventions on Human Rights Laws/Laws of Armed Conflict will deteriorate further within this conflict. Additional attacks by the Russian MOD are likely to occur in the following days to this intelligence report publication. Strikes are likely to occur with little prior warning and may penetrate Moldovan airspace again. Retaliatory strikes by Ukrainian Forces may occur on key Russian targets in Crimea, Russian-occupied areas within Ukraine, and even within Russia’s borders. Previously assumed “safe” areas within Ukraine for NGOs are likely to be considered fair targets from henceforth. Private businesses are likely to be caught in the crossfire or targeted deliberately too. Concluding notes: It is important for airlines to take note of these events in the Black Sea. Active planning, monitoring, and risk assessing are vital to ensure the safety of operations, people, assets, and reputation. For private businesses and NGOs, it is important to take these recent events into account when considering their security profiles within the country. Hostile Environment Awareness Training [HEAT] is critical to mitigate the negative externalities of these events. For best results, first aid courses should also be considered. About Dyami Aviation Services Our experts have extensive aviation security and intelligence experience at the highest international level; for airlines and corporate jet operators alike. Our services are broad: from AOC application support, security policy design, threat assessments, to crew training. Our security risk & threat assessments focus on overflight risk during flight operations. They contain actionable intelligence to ensure a safe and secure operation. Is it safe for your crew to operate the planned route? What is the actual situation regarding (geo)political factors, crime, corruption, espionage, terrorism or health risks? Our extensive reports are easily understandable to allow you to anticipate properly and make better critical decisions. >> https://www.dyami.services/risk-threat-assessments About PMO Security Risk Management PMO Security Risk Management, FKA Praeventia, is a social enterprise specialized in resolving health, safety, and security issues for humanitarian organizations operating overseas. We are part of PMO-Excellence, specialized in Project management and led by Diana van Heerden MsC PMP. We primarily serve the non-profit sector, specifically humanitarian organizations. The basis for our way of working is a personal approach, competitive pricing, integrity, and, last but not least, global expertise. PMO Security Risk Management is led by William van Heerden, a registered independent safety and security consultant since 2009. Since then, safety and security consultancies have been carried out in more than 53 countries. >> https://pmo-srm.org/aboutus2020/ About Flight Level 470 Flight Level 470 is a growing network with VIP Cabin Crew, Dassault Falcon, Bombardier Global, Gulfstream Captains, First Officers, Instructors, Examiners, Test Pilots, Flight Operational Managers. Our main goal is to have Air Crew only recommended by other FL470 users. We are building a trust-worthy and respectable air crew network, which is now well known in the Aviation Sphere. We can provide the best solution, with the shortest notice, in crewing, consulting and selling. >> www.flightlevel470.com

Date: 08/11/2022 Location: London, United Kingdom Parties involved: The Government of the United Kingdom, Metropolitan Police, Just Stop Oil protesters and supporters, commuters on the M25, businesses in the wider metropolitan London area. Summery: Just Stop Oil protesters climbed onto the M25, which is Britain’s busiest motorway. The activist group demands a halt on all new oil and gas licenses and contents. The protests lead to major disruptions for commuters and supply chains. Emergency services were unable to reach destinations. Climate protests are intensifying. The Event: On Monday 07/11/2022 at 07.30 local time Just Stop Oil protesters climbed onto Britain’s busiest motorway. The M25, which encircles around most of Greater London, was subjected to protesters climbing onto overhead gantries, both clockwise and anti-clockwise, as part of their campaign to demand that the government halts all new oil and gas licenses and consents. As a result of the protesters causing chaos during rush hour, the M25 motorway had to be closed in parts for more than a hour, causing massive tailbacks and subsequent gridlock. Following the demonstrations on Monday, the Metropolitan police announced that they arrested 35 protesters in response to the disruption. They are suspected of conspiracy to cause public nuisance, and may potentially face up to ten years in prison. Since the start of the Just Stop Oil protests on 01/04/2022, police have arrested nearly 2.000 supporters of the protest group. Five of them are currently serving time in prison. Matt Twist, who is the current Assistant Commissioner for the Metropolitan Police, branded the demonstrations as “criminality” with the intention of disrupting thousands of people’s lives. On 08/11/2022, protesters from Just Stop Oil blocked the M25 for the second day running, with rush hour traffic brought to a standstill. In similar fashion to yesterday’s disruptions, several junctions were blocked due to protesters climbing onto overhead gantries, causing police to halt traffic. Police warned commuters to find alternative routes, while traffic was being stopped in both directions. Just Stop Oil made a public statement regarding the demonstration: “Our supporters will be returning - today, tomorrow and the next day - and the next day after that - and every day until our demand is met: no new oil and gas in the UK.". Analysis and implications: The M25, otherwise known as the London “Ring Road”, is a major road surrounding most of Greater London. The 117-mile motorway is one of the most important roads in the United Kingdom as well as one of the busiest. A protest on this motorway will affect thousands of commuters going to work, as well as supply chains being disrupted or not meeting their scheduled times. This may result in massive economic turmoil. Just Stop Oil protests and demonstrations will affect many businesses who operate in the United Kingdom. Due to the disruptions, traffic came to a complete standstill the past two days. This also means that emergency services like ambulances can not get to their destinations, whether this is a hospital or the location of an incident. The possibility of someone passing away in an ambulance, or at the scene of an incident due to traffic delays is very much possible. A similar incident like this has happened on 29/10/2022, when Just Stop Oil protesters caused a massive congestion on and near the Dartford Bridge. Two women got into a crash, but due to the high levels of traffic being piled up, the ambulance was delayed in arriving, leading to their deaths. A bystander trying to help the women while waiting for the ambulance to arrive made a statement to the press: “The protestors may not have intended to hurt anyone, but they’ve got blood on their hands now”. The Metropolitan Police have announced that more than 10.000 officer shifts had been dedicated to policing the protests since the start of October. These are officers who would otherwise be dealing with issues that matter to local communities, such as knife crime, safeguarding and responding to burglaries. The need for police interference during the Just Stop Oil protests on the M25 results in less officers being available for the issues listed above. Concluding notes: If protest group Just Stop Oil decides to follow up their statement and create another disruption on the M25 like they announced, more economic disruption may follow and result in difficulties for society. There is also a high possibility of death being the result of congestion, as emergency health services can get stuck in traffic due to the protests. Just Stop Oil may also take inspiration from the recent invasion of the private jet section at Schiphol Airport in the Netherlands on 05/11/2022. There is a chance of the protesters targeting airports in the United Kingdom as well. Additionally, protests may also get more extreme, as well as the behavior of commuters against the supporters of Just Stop Oil. If the demonstrations continue, there may be an increase in violence against the protesters from frustrated travelers who are affected by the M25 coming to a standstill. About Dyami Strategic Security Services In our contemporary multipolar world, political situations and local realities are continuously shifting. If you operate globally, you have to prepare for the impact of unforeseen events in every region where you operate. It means having specialized access to expertise in the intricacies of business risk and resilience to remain constantly aware, updated, and alerted with global intelligence. ​A crucial aspect of due diligence in the planning of international ventures is to develop a comprehensive understanding of possible threats and conflicted issues that may arise through foreign interest, presence in unfamiliar settings, or even inevitable political change. Dyami offers various options for tailored threat intelligence and geopolitical analyses, which are always customized to your needs. >> www.dyami.services >> https://www.dyami.services/risk-threat-assessments

The situation in the Western Balkans is increasingly inching toward a showdown in Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH) sparked by separatist tendencies in the Serb entity of the country, Republika Srpska. This would most likely drag the rest of the region into a broader confrontation and would also most certainly have implications for the rest of Europe. This report analyses short- and medium-term effects on regional stability in the Balkans.

In November, the 27th Conference of Parties, commonly known as #COP27 will be held in Egypt. Some of our clients will be heading to Sharm el-Sheikh to attend this important conference to discuss the fight against climate change. We are proud to support their teams with their travel security needs. By providing briefings, travel security training and support during the event. Feel free to download some of our advisories: A summary of our Sharm el-Sheikh Travel Threat Advisory >> Essential Egypt travel safety tips >> Let us know if we can help you with your bespoke security-as-a-service subscription! Count on us.

Written by Julius Birch On the 12th of October, the Biden administration released its first National Security Strategy brief, a 48-page document outlining the administration’s assessment of US national security for the 21st century. The People’s Republic of China is identified as a major long-term threat. Another document recently released by the Bureau of Industry and Security details a range of export controls on advanced microelectronics components, intended to hobble China’s capacity for technological advancement and economic growth. The Biden administration has identified China as a tremendous long-term threat to US interests and is willing to pull no punches. However, Joe Biden’s first term is already halfway through. Despite several running criminal investigations, Donald Trump has repeatedly hinted he would run for president again in 2024, and it seems he still has the base to do so. 61% of Republicans would still want him to run if he were criminally charged, according to a recent poll, and according to the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "his core support remains intact regardless of the results of the investigation”. As such, it’s well worth pondering the implications of his re-election for international security. How would the famously erratic and impulsive President Trump conduct his trans-Pacific policy in 2024? Trump’s relations with China during the presidency During the 2016 election cycle, the eventual victor would produce many a controversial soundbite, but none were repeated quite so often as ‘America First’ and ‘China’. Claiming the US had become entangled in a web of foreign alliances and agreements that were not in her interest, Trump promised that, were he to become president, he would reassess America’s international obligations – and if they were not beneficial, withdraw from them without hesitation. He promised to bring back manufacturing jobs that had gone to China. He would, in short, make US interests a priority in their foreign policy once more. Upon becoming president, Trump certainly appeared to make good on his promises, and the China front was no exception. At Trump’s direction, the United States withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, a proposed trade agreement to lower mutual trade barriers among a number of countries on both sides of the Pacific Ocean. A trade war was instigated, the Trump administration laying tariffs on the import of Chinese goods, to which China responded in kind. Policies such as these, as well as inflammatory rhetoric, were quite sufficient to satisfy Trump’s followers. However, time revealed the inefficiency, inadequacy, or simply misguided nature of these policies. The TPP had been lauded as a strategic move to “prevent China from writing the rules of the world economy,” increasing economic growth for the US and friendly nations in the Asian-Pacific region. Leaving the Trans-Pacific Partnership – the groundwork for which had been laid during the Obama administration – gave China an opportunity to fill the power vacuum in the region left by the US. In 2019, Forbes claimed that “his tariff-obsessed approach is far too narrow to address the genuine challenges China poses to American hegemony over the coming decades,” while those very same tariffs were causing problems for small American farmers and manufacturers. In short, Trump’s approach did little to truly counter the Chinese challenge and often caused more harm than good. Meanwhile, the 44th president had no words of praise for his successor’s stance toward China. He has claimed Biden is afraid of China because his son, Hunter, is being blackmailed after taking a large amount of money, compelling Biden to craft a China policy that is not as strong as it should be. This is a strange claim for him to make; not only has the Biden administration’s NSS brief clearly marked China as the major long-term geopolitical rival to the US, but Biden also left in place a number of Trump-Era tariffs. The Democrat party, as a whole, has come to generally hold a more hostile view of China during the years of the Trump administration, and as Biden’s first term rolls past the halfway point it has become clear that it has not been soft on China. Trump’s criticism looks more and more like political mud-slinging. Trump’s re-election? So what kind of policy on China could we expect if Trump manages to win a second term? At first glance, it seems like things will go on as usual. Biden’s attitude to China has been no softer than his predecessor’s, and there seems to be little reason to think Trump will have changed his mind. The threat China poses to the United States’ status as a world leader has not gone away in the past four years. In fact, it has only grown. On the other hand, Trump is infamous for his unpredictability. During his term as president, he became infamous for not reading security documents or intelligence briefs, and the National Security Council had been told to “keep policy papers to a single page and include lots of graphics and maps.” His public statements and the 140-character stream of consciousness his Twitter account offered painted an unflattering, unprofessional image of the President as a man with many whims and few filters. It does not seem entirely out of character for him to undo many Biden-era measures taken against China simply because Biden implemented them. The view from across the water Meanwhile, on the other side of the Pacific, it seems that China would be quite pleased with Trump winning a second term. During the 2020 election cycle, numerous articles were published detailing the Chinese view: Trump was claimed to be “easy to read”, and reportedly disinterested in many issues that other Western leaders placed a premium on, such as Hong Kong or the Chinese human rights record. His administration has been criticized for a lack of clear goals or strategy with regard to its Chinese policy. “What Beijing would really fear is a concerted U.S. policy and a coordinated international policy that constrains China.” CNBC wrote in July 2020. Considering Trump’s ‘America First’ policy and apparent eagerness to withdraw from the international sphere, it’s not hard to see why their geopolitical rivals across the Pacific would applaud his re-election. For the USA, a second Trump administration would mean governmental confusion, coupled with a shrinking of international reach and power. For China, it would mean another four years of opportunities, as the eminent global power seeks to decouple from the international system and turn inward under chaotic, disconnected leadership. For America’s allies in Europe and elsewhere, Trump’s re-election would demand firm unity, a strong political will, and a greater capacity for self-defense than they currently possess. About the author: Julius Birch Julius Birch is a student of History at Utrecht University with a wide range of interests within the field of geopolitics and international security. Currently, he is writing his undergraduate thesis, applying modern theory to a historical case study.

Date: 17/10/2022 Location: The East Mediterranean, the Island of Cyprus. Parties involved: The Government of the Republic of Cyprus, The Government of the United States, The Government of Turkey, Total Energies, Eni, Shell, and Chevron. The Event: Cyprus remains divided since Turkey invaded and occupied the northern third of the island in 1974. The two states never signed a peace agreement, although a UN peacekeeping force has maintained a demilitarised zone between the Greek and Turkish sides of their respective claimed territory. As a result, this war is considered a “frozen” conflict. Since the first discovery of natural gas in 2011, natural resources have led to a re-politicization of this frozen conflict. This is due to Western energy suppliers such as Chevron [US], Total [France], Shell [Britain/Netherlands], and Eni [Italy] actively discovering, drilling, and owning the majority stake of all natural gas fields off of the southern coast of the island. Naturally, the Cypriot offshore exploration programme has faced strong objection from Turkey due to overlapping claims of jurisdiction over territorial waters. The most recent of these discoveries was made in August 2022. Total and Eni reported 2.5 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves at Cronos-1 well. Drilling will begin in May of the following calendar year. For context, the Aphrodite gas field [one of the 13 listed] contains 4.5 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves worth $9 billion. Scheduled for commissioning by 2026, it will grant Cyprus energy independence and produce ample economic benefits. On 16/09/2022, US Secretary of State Blinken lifted Defence Trade Restrictions on the Republic of Cyprus for the fiscal year 2023. The original arms embargo was enacted in 1987 in order to push for a diplomatic solution to the Cyprus conflict. Turkish President Erdogan reacted strongly to the renewed US-Cyprus cooperation. He claims that US weapons transfers to the Republic of Cyprus endanger stability on the divided island. In retaliation, Turkey sent 40,000 additional troops and equipment on 29/09/2022 to the Turkish-occupied territory of Northern Cyprus. Analysis and implications: Cyprus risks becoming a strategic battleground as a result of its energy reserves. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the European Union has been seeking to cut its energy dependence on Russian gas. For the EU, Cypriot gas reserves offer a viable energy alternative. Whereas for Russia, reinforcing Turkey’s resolve would serve as an additional tool for it to apply pressure on European countries that are supplying arms to Ukraine. This internationalisation of the conflict is likely to lead to a rapid increase of arms and troops on the island in both Turkish and Greek areas of control. As this occurs, the risks of preemptive strikes, accidental engagements, and reputational damage to energy companies already invested in the island are heightening. If a conflict ensues, the extraction of natural resources would grind to a halt, which would damage the production and economic output of the major European Energy companies. This would further worsen rising energy prices and inflation rates, in addition to opening an additional war in Europe. Due to the NATO status of both Greece and Turkey, any aggression by either side will result in a collapse in the security framework of NATO. While a worst-case scenario, NATO would rapidly fracture along political lines, which would weaken the border security of Western Europe to outside aggression. In addition, the UN peacekeeping force deployed to the Island is unlikely to offer enough of a buffer for its HQ in New York to make any meaningful contribution to the event. Nor is the British contingent at RAF Akrotiri going to be able to keep Turkey at bay. This geopolitical conundrum further complicates Europe’s security due to the delicate balance Turkey plays with its relations with Russia. If the West does not heed to Turkish grievances, it could intentionally push Turkey into Russia’s arms. This will be of particular concern to the war in Ukraine, as Turkey is running a thin line between supporting Ukraine’s efforts with equipment [such as the infamous Bayraktar drone]. If this support stops, the Ukrainian military risks losing an important supplier of arms, which could tip the war in Russia’s favour. Concluding notes: The externalities of this frozen conflict could prove devastating for the security of Europe if left unaddressed. The economic benefits for energy companies in the short term are unlikely to outweigh the long-term consequences of Turkey escalating the political conflict into a military operation or withdrawing its support for the Ukrainian Government. For businesses and residents on the island of Cyprus, the consequences will be dire. For the rest of the world, this island could prove to be a powder keg that could set off the largest-scale war that Europe has witnessed since the Yugoslav wars in 2001.

Dyami gave a Travel Safety & Security Masterclass with the beautiful backdrop of a Boeing 747 at the Corendon Hotels & Resorts. Organised by Odete Pimenta da Silva from NATM | Netherlands Association for Travel Management. Dyami consultants Mohammad Alweshahi, Zoë Bremer and CEO Eric Schouten had a great time discussing the challenges of #travelriskmanagement with the attendees; - How to keep your employees safe while travelling - The importance of adding security to your travel policy - Involving leadership and securing security budgets - Geopolitical forecasting, preparation and awareness - Keeping track of business travellers and their safety - Dealing with threats like an upcoming crisis, espionage, conflicts etc. The most important takeaway is that Travel Risk Management should be part of the sustainable business program in any organisation. Keeping people safe and secure is a top priority. Thanks to everybody for making this an amazing day, by sharing your stories, experiences and thoughts!!

Utrecht, 13 October 2022 This week Dyami was at the Heras Static Show. An event for #securityprofessionals organised by ECBB (ecbb.nl) and Heras. Folkert Roosjen as Founder of ECBB en Dyami's CEO Eric Schouten announced the implementation of Dyami's Intelligence and Analyst solution into ECBB's Security Risk Management Services. Dyami's Intelligence Consultant Mohammad Alweshahi presented a keynote based on this experience at the Central Intelligence Agency indicating the need for continued collaboration against a persistent set of threats that can only be overcome with collaboration; anything less would only raise the level of risk for everyone. Fitting perfectly with the message of Folkert and Heras's Johan Van Den Wittenboer that #collaboration is critical. The message from Dyami during the two-day event was that geopolitical forecasting, early warning and an employee travel security program should be in place at any organisation operating abroad. Are you interested in our services? Or want to get in touch with one of our staff members who were present at this event? Do not hesitate to contact us now! Count on us. About ECBB About Dyami's Security as Service Solution

Written by Daan Vegter and Alessia Cappelletti Conflict Monitoring Report - September 2022 covers five conflicts and three brief alerts: Conflicts: Ukrainian forces pushed back the Russian military, triggering a ‘partial mobilization’ in Russia. This led to protests and refugees fleeing Russia. Violent mass protests broke out in Iran after 22-year-old Mahsa Amini died in custody of the Iranian morality police. Fighting in Ethiopia resumed in the Tigray region between the government forces and TPLF. Military clashes on the border of Azerbaijan and Armenia resulted in almost 200 deaths in a matter of days. Deadly clashes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan military resulted in 94 dead and over 100 injured. 37 of these deaths were civilians. Brief alerts: With a nudge from Russia, Turkish and Syrian officials have been in talks in hopes to normalize the relations. Colombia and Venezuela re-opened their shared border for trade. Mass exodus of Russians fled to Kazakhstan. World Conflicts - September 2022 1. Russia - Ukraine What happened? Over the last month, the Ukrainian armed forces have significantly pushed back the Russian offensive. The first major Ukrainian counteroffensive started on September 6. By September 13, President Zelenskyy claimed that Ukrainian armed forces recaptured 8000 square kilometers from Russian troops. Although it is hard to confirm data of military casualties on both sides due to widespread misinformation campaigns, it can be assumed that Russia suffered heavy losses during the latest Ukrainian counteroffensive. A signal for this is the ‘partial mobilization’ Putin announced on September 21, as it shows that Russia is in need of new troops. 300,000 Russian reservists have been called to battle. However, there are also reports of people receiving draft notices who are not in army reserves and arriving at the border, making it unclear as to how many people actually get drafted for the war. This has sparked protests across Russia with people demonstrating against the draft. However, the Kremlin has cracked down on the protesters, arresting over 2300 people. People have also been fleeing Russia to neighboring countries like Finland, Georgia and Kazakhstan in order to avoid the draft. What are the consequences? A new influx of Russian troops may intensify the war in Ukraine. In the upcoming months, heavy fighting is expected to happen at the front, as Ukraine is eager to retake occupied territory before winter sets in. One scenario is that Russia will dig in at their current positions with the new recruits, trying to hold the line until winter freezes the battlefield. Offensives will then resume once winter has passed. Winter will pose a challenge for morale on both sides. The internal conflicts and protests in Russia indicate that the morale of conscripts is not particularly high already, which may pose a threat to future Russian defenses. Assessed Control of Terrain in Ukraine on Sept. 1 (left) and Sept. 26 (right), 2022, by ISW and Critical Threats. 2. Iran On September 16, 2022, protests broke out in Iran, after 22-year-old Mahsa Amini died in custody of the Iranian morality police. Amini was arrested on charges of violating the country's headscarf laws. Reports of Amini indicate that she died from blunt force trauma to the head, which caused a skull fracture, although authorities claim she died of ‘pre-existing conditions.’ Soon after her funeral, protests broke out in the Kurdistan province of Iran, quickly spreading to 80 cities across Iran. Women are burning their hijabs in public places in support of Amini and protests have turned against the regime. However, the government has reacted violently toward the protesters, using live ammunition to fire directly at protesters in some instances. At the time of writing, at least 76 protesters have been killed by Iranian security forces. After three weeks, there is still no end in sight for the protests and the Iranian state doubling down on the protesters, the situation will likely aggravate. 3. Ethiopia: Tigray In late August 2022, fighting resumed in the Tigray region of Ethiopia between the Ethiopian Government and the Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF), after having signed a truce in March of this year. On August 24, shots were fired in the region, where both parties blamed the other for the incident. Since then, multiple deadly clashes have been reported in the region, escalating the conflict into a full scale war. There have also been multiple airstrikes by the Ethiopian government in the region whereby civilians were killed. In mid September, TPLF forces were ready to start an African Union (AU) led peace process after having suffered heavy losses due to drone strikes. However, the Ethiopian government continued drone strikes in the region, signaling no willingness to start a peace process. This may indicate that the Ethiopian government's strategy is to obliterate the TPLF forces. Recent reports claim that Eritrea has now joined the conflict, fighting alongside the Ethiopian government in a full-scale offensive against the TPLF. Satellite images taken on September 26, 2022, show large-scale mobilization of Eritrean forces alongside the border with Tigray, indicating an escalation of conflict in the near future. 4. Azerbaijan - Armenia On 12 September 2022, clashes erupted on the borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenia has accused Azerbaijan of attacking its territory, while Azerbaijan claims it was responding to Armenia’s provocations. The clashes proved to be extremely violent, costing the lives of more than 180 people in a matter of days. Multiple efforts to broker peace between the two countries have ended in failure, with one ceasefire lasting only minutes until violence erupted again. Although the clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia most likely stem from the conflict surrounding the Nagorno-Karabakh region, these flashpoints took place along the two countries’ international border with shelling and drone strikes. As of the publication date, both countries accuse each other of breaking the ceasefire signed in November 2020, continuing the violence in the region. 5. Kyrgyzstan - Tajikistan Clashes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan broke out on 14 September, when border authorities reportedly opened fire along the disputed border. At least 94 people were killed and more than 100 injured, resulting in the deadliest clash in years. Of these, at least 37 civilians were killed in the clashes, Human Rights Watch reports. The two countries blamed each other for the violence but reached a ceasefire agreement on 16 September. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan share a 1000 kilometers border, a third of which is contested, and clashes between the two countries are common. Following these recent outbursts of violence, the heads of the Kyrgyz and Tajik security services signed a protocol on September 25, agreeing to vacate four border posts on each side of the border. However, due to the low levels of trust on both sides of the border, clashes are likely to reoccur. Brief alerts and situations to look out for 1. Colombia On 28 September, Colombia and Venezuela re-opened their shared border for trade. Borders between the two countries had been closed for seven years for cars, freight, and even for commercial flights (which also will resume soon). During this time, the frontier saw a spike in violence and smuggling, as criminal groups fought to control the routes. In his campaign, newly elected Colombian President Gustavo Petro said he would re-establish diplomatic relations with Venezuela - severed under the previous presidency - as a step to the end of the conflict. However, Colombia still faces many challenges. Petro’s reforms were not welcomed by everyone, and thousands marched on 26 September against proposed tax reforms, which are set to increase taxes for high incomes and eliminate exemptions. Additionally, Petro is distrusted within military ranks and the United States is concerned about his embrace of the Latin American left and tacit misalignment with US defense cooperation. 2. Kazakhstan - Russia On 21 September, President Putin announced a “partial” mobilization of its civilian population. On paper, this means that Russia will call up reservists, people who have had prior military service, and civilians who have skills essential to the war effort. In reality, a blanket call ups for civilians has occurred, which sparked a mass exodus of fighting-aged males (18-57) to the neighboring countries such Finland, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and Turkey, whose governments responses have been mixed. Kazakhstan, a former long-standing Russian ally that has spent the prior 18 months distancing itself from Russia, has stated its support for Russian migrants crossing the border. This developing situation has led to mild tensions at border checkpoints, from both Russian security forces and protestors from the recipient countries; and has the capacity to escalate . 3. Syria As Russia is pulling out of Syria, Moscow hopes to normalize Turkish-Syrian relations to secure its position in the country and stabilize the region. Talks with high Turkish (intelligence) officials, including the Undersecretary of the National Intelligence Organization, suggest that higher political talks may occur soon. Since 2015, Russia and Iran have been backing the Syrian government, while Turkey aided the rebel forces opposing Assad. A rapprochement between the Syrian and Turkish governments would drastically change the dynamics of the decade-long Syrian civil war, potentially have repercussions on the Kurdish population in Syria, and impact civilians escaping the war. About the authors: Daan Vegter Daan interns as an intelligence analyst at Dyami. He is currently pursuing a Masters in Peace and Conflict Studies at Uppsala University. Experienced in analyzing large datasets and doing research on international terrorism, civil wars and emerging security threats. Although originally Dutch, Daan has also lived in the United States and Sweden. Alessia Cappelletti Alessia is Intelligence Analyst and Project Manager of DEWIS. She has field experience in South America and she has conducted research on geopolitical shifts, especially Russian and Chinese interests in South and Central America and organized crime and illicit flows around the world. Her academic background includes conflict analysis, international humanitarian law, human rights protection, and criminology.

The Netherlands Association for Travel Management | NATM is organising a Masterclass in Travel Risk Management for its members. Eric Schouten, CEO & Founder, and Mohammad Al-Weshahi, Intelligence Consultant, both working at dyami | strategic security services, will bring your knowledge to the (next) level of expertise on TRM within corporate travel. Companies with a travel policy tend to forget to integrate their risk management policy into their travel policy. Another challenging topic is; 𝙒𝙝𝙤 𝙞𝙨 𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙥𝙤𝙣𝙨𝙞𝙗𝙡𝙚 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙏𝙍𝙈/𝘿𝙪𝙩𝙮 𝙤𝙛 𝘾𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙬𝙞𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙣 𝙮𝙤𝙪𝙧 𝙤𝙧𝙜𝙖𝙣𝙞𝙯𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣? Often multiple disciplines are involved, such as Human Resources, Travel Management, Security department, Risk Management, Purchasing, et cetera. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐥𝐚𝐬𝐬 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐯𝐞𝐥 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐛𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐲𝐨𝐮? During a one-day Masterclass, you will work closely with your peers on assignments and cases built on situations and experiences in the lives of business travellers. The goal of the Masterclass is to expand the participants’ knowledge in the field of expertise of Travel Risk Management aligned to a company’s business travel policy. This one-day workshop is designed to 1) Gaine a better understanding of risk management, especially as it pertains to adverse regions. 2) Learn about specific actions to be taken in cases of emergencies, TRM/Duty of Care. 3) Expand on leadership traits necessary for management to pre-emptively be ahead of crises In case of any questions/remarks, address your questions to NATM Secretariaat via secretariaat@natm.nl or contact Odete Pimenta da Silva, Managing Director NATM, via odete.pimentadasilva@natm.nl 🔥 Not a NATM Member but interested in joining this Masterclass? 📝 Drop a note at odete.pimentadasilva@natm.nl #travelmanagement #business #businesstravel #security #riskmanagement #intelligence #travel #corporatetravel #corporatetravelmanagement #dutyofcare #trm

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