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Dyami gave a Travel Safety & Security Masterclass with the beautiful backdrop of a Boeing 747 at the Corendon Hotels & Resorts. Organised by Odete Pimenta da Silva from NATM | Netherlands Association for Travel Management. Dyami consultants Mohammad Alweshahi, Zoë Bremer and CEO Eric Schouten had a great time discussing the challenges of #travelriskmanagement with the attendees; - How to keep your employees safe while travelling - The importance of adding security to your travel policy - Involving leadership and securing security budgets - Geopolitical forecasting, preparation and awareness - Keeping track of business travellers and their safety - Dealing with threats like an upcoming crisis, espionage, conflicts etc. The most important takeaway is that Travel Risk Management should be part of the sustainable business program in any organisation. Keeping people safe and secure is a top priority. Thanks to everybody for making this an amazing day, by sharing your stories, experiences and thoughts!!

Utrecht, 13 October 2022 This week Dyami was at the Heras Static Show. An event for #securityprofessionals organised by ECBB (ecbb.nl) and Heras. Folkert Roosjen as Founder of ECBB en Dyami's CEO Eric Schouten announced the implementation of Dyami's Intelligence and Analyst solution into ECBB's Security Risk Management Services. Dyami's Intelligence Consultant Mohammad Alweshahi presented a keynote based on this experience at the Central Intelligence Agency indicating the need for continued collaboration against a persistent set of threats that can only be overcome with collaboration; anything less would only raise the level of risk for everyone. Fitting perfectly with the message of Folkert and Heras's Johan Van Den Wittenboer that #collaboration is critical. The message from Dyami during the two-day event was that geopolitical forecasting, early warning and an employee travel security program should be in place at any organisation operating abroad. Are you interested in our services? Or want to get in touch with one of our staff members who were present at this event? Do not hesitate to contact us now! Count on us. About ECBB About Dyami's Security as Service Solution

Written by Daan Vegter and Alessia Cappelletti Conflict Monitoring Report - September 2022 covers five conflicts and three brief alerts: Conflicts: Ukrainian forces pushed back the Russian military, triggering a ‘partial mobilization’ in Russia. This led to protests and refugees fleeing Russia. Violent mass protests broke out in Iran after 22-year-old Mahsa Amini died in custody of the Iranian morality police. Fighting in Ethiopia resumed in the Tigray region between the government forces and TPLF. Military clashes on the border of Azerbaijan and Armenia resulted in almost 200 deaths in a matter of days. Deadly clashes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan military resulted in 94 dead and over 100 injured. 37 of these deaths were civilians. Brief alerts: With a nudge from Russia, Turkish and Syrian officials have been in talks in hopes to normalize the relations. Colombia and Venezuela re-opened their shared border for trade. Mass exodus of Russians fled to Kazakhstan. World Conflicts - September 2022 1. Russia - Ukraine What happened? Over the last month, the Ukrainian armed forces have significantly pushed back the Russian offensive. The first major Ukrainian counteroffensive started on September 6. By September 13, President Zelenskyy claimed that Ukrainian armed forces recaptured 8000 square kilometers from Russian troops. Although it is hard to confirm data of military casualties on both sides due to widespread misinformation campaigns, it can be assumed that Russia suffered heavy losses during the latest Ukrainian counteroffensive. A signal for this is the ‘partial mobilization’ Putin announced on September 21, as it shows that Russia is in need of new troops. 300,000 Russian reservists have been called to battle. However, there are also reports of people receiving draft notices who are not in army reserves and arriving at the border, making it unclear as to how many people actually get drafted for the war. This has sparked protests across Russia with people demonstrating against the draft. However, the Kremlin has cracked down on the protesters, arresting over 2300 people. People have also been fleeing Russia to neighboring countries like Finland, Georgia and Kazakhstan in order to avoid the draft. What are the consequences? A new influx of Russian troops may intensify the war in Ukraine. In the upcoming months, heavy fighting is expected to happen at the front, as Ukraine is eager to retake occupied territory before winter sets in. One scenario is that Russia will dig in at their current positions with the new recruits, trying to hold the line until winter freezes the battlefield. Offensives will then resume once winter has passed. Winter will pose a challenge for morale on both sides. The internal conflicts and protests in Russia indicate that the morale of conscripts is not particularly high already, which may pose a threat to future Russian defenses. Assessed Control of Terrain in Ukraine on Sept. 1 (left) and Sept. 26 (right), 2022, by ISW and Critical Threats. 2. Iran On September 16, 2022, protests broke out in Iran, after 22-year-old Mahsa Amini died in custody of the Iranian morality police. Amini was arrested on charges of violating the country's headscarf laws. Reports of Amini indicate that she died from blunt force trauma to the head, which caused a skull fracture, although authorities claim she died of ‘pre-existing conditions.’ Soon after her funeral, protests broke out in the Kurdistan province of Iran, quickly spreading to 80 cities across Iran. Women are burning their hijabs in public places in support of Amini and protests have turned against the regime. However, the government has reacted violently toward the protesters, using live ammunition to fire directly at protesters in some instances. At the time of writing, at least 76 protesters have been killed by Iranian security forces. After three weeks, there is still no end in sight for the protests and the Iranian state doubling down on the protesters, the situation will likely aggravate. 3. Ethiopia: Tigray In late August 2022, fighting resumed in the Tigray region of Ethiopia between the Ethiopian Government and the Tigray People Liberation Front (TPLF), after having signed a truce in March of this year. On August 24, shots were fired in the region, where both parties blamed the other for the incident. Since then, multiple deadly clashes have been reported in the region, escalating the conflict into a full scale war. There have also been multiple airstrikes by the Ethiopian government in the region whereby civilians were killed. In mid September, TPLF forces were ready to start an African Union (AU) led peace process after having suffered heavy losses due to drone strikes. However, the Ethiopian government continued drone strikes in the region, signaling no willingness to start a peace process. This may indicate that the Ethiopian government's strategy is to obliterate the TPLF forces. Recent reports claim that Eritrea has now joined the conflict, fighting alongside the Ethiopian government in a full-scale offensive against the TPLF. Satellite images taken on September 26, 2022, show large-scale mobilization of Eritrean forces alongside the border with Tigray, indicating an escalation of conflict in the near future. 4. Azerbaijan - Armenia On 12 September 2022, clashes erupted on the borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenia has accused Azerbaijan of attacking its territory, while Azerbaijan claims it was responding to Armenia’s provocations. The clashes proved to be extremely violent, costing the lives of more than 180 people in a matter of days. Multiple efforts to broker peace between the two countries have ended in failure, with one ceasefire lasting only minutes until violence erupted again. Although the clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia most likely stem from the conflict surrounding the Nagorno-Karabakh region, these flashpoints took place along the two countries’ international border with shelling and drone strikes. As of the publication date, both countries accuse each other of breaking the ceasefire signed in November 2020, continuing the violence in the region. 5. Kyrgyzstan - Tajikistan Clashes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan broke out on 14 September, when border authorities reportedly opened fire along the disputed border. At least 94 people were killed and more than 100 injured, resulting in the deadliest clash in years. Of these, at least 37 civilians were killed in the clashes, Human Rights Watch reports. The two countries blamed each other for the violence but reached a ceasefire agreement on 16 September. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan share a 1000 kilometers border, a third of which is contested, and clashes between the two countries are common. Following these recent outbursts of violence, the heads of the Kyrgyz and Tajik security services signed a protocol on September 25, agreeing to vacate four border posts on each side of the border. However, due to the low levels of trust on both sides of the border, clashes are likely to reoccur. Brief alerts and situations to look out for 1. Colombia On 28 September, Colombia and Venezuela re-opened their shared border for trade. Borders between the two countries had been closed for seven years for cars, freight, and even for commercial flights (which also will resume soon). During this time, the frontier saw a spike in violence and smuggling, as criminal groups fought to control the routes. In his campaign, newly elected Colombian President Gustavo Petro said he would re-establish diplomatic relations with Venezuela - severed under the previous presidency - as a step to the end of the conflict. However, Colombia still faces many challenges. Petro’s reforms were not welcomed by everyone, and thousands marched on 26 September against proposed tax reforms, which are set to increase taxes for high incomes and eliminate exemptions. Additionally, Petro is distrusted within military ranks and the United States is concerned about his embrace of the Latin American left and tacit misalignment with US defense cooperation. 2. Kazakhstan - Russia On 21 September, President Putin announced a “partial” mobilization of its civilian population. On paper, this means that Russia will call up reservists, people who have had prior military service, and civilians who have skills essential to the war effort. In reality, a blanket call ups for civilians has occurred, which sparked a mass exodus of fighting-aged males (18-57) to the neighboring countries such Finland, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and Turkey, whose governments responses have been mixed. Kazakhstan, a former long-standing Russian ally that has spent the prior 18 months distancing itself from Russia, has stated its support for Russian migrants crossing the border. This developing situation has led to mild tensions at border checkpoints, from both Russian security forces and protestors from the recipient countries; and has the capacity to escalate . 3. Syria As Russia is pulling out of Syria, Moscow hopes to normalize Turkish-Syrian relations to secure its position in the country and stabilize the region. Talks with high Turkish (intelligence) officials, including the Undersecretary of the National Intelligence Organization, suggest that higher political talks may occur soon. Since 2015, Russia and Iran have been backing the Syrian government, while Turkey aided the rebel forces opposing Assad. A rapprochement between the Syrian and Turkish governments would drastically change the dynamics of the decade-long Syrian civil war, potentially have repercussions on the Kurdish population in Syria, and impact civilians escaping the war. About the authors: Daan Vegter Daan interns as an intelligence analyst at Dyami. He is currently pursuing a Masters in Peace and Conflict Studies at Uppsala University. Experienced in analyzing large datasets and doing research on international terrorism, civil wars and emerging security threats. Although originally Dutch, Daan has also lived in the United States and Sweden. Alessia Cappelletti Alessia is Intelligence Analyst and Project Manager of DEWIS. She has field experience in South America and she has conducted research on geopolitical shifts, especially Russian and Chinese interests in South and Central America and organized crime and illicit flows around the world. Her academic background includes conflict analysis, international humanitarian law, human rights protection, and criminology.

The Netherlands Association for Travel Management | NATM is organising a Masterclass in Travel Risk Management for its members. Eric Schouten, CEO & Founder, and Mohammad Al-Weshahi, Intelligence Consultant, both working at dyami | strategic security services, will bring your knowledge to the (next) level of expertise on TRM within corporate travel. Companies with a travel policy tend to forget to integrate their risk management policy into their travel policy. Another challenging topic is; 𝙒𝙝𝙤 𝙞𝙨 𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙥𝙤𝙣𝙨𝙞𝙗𝙡𝙚 𝙛𝙤𝙧 𝙏𝙍𝙈/𝘿𝙪𝙩𝙮 𝙤𝙛 𝘾𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙬𝙞𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙣 𝙮𝙤𝙪𝙧 𝙤𝙧𝙜𝙖𝙣𝙞𝙯𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣? Often multiple disciplines are involved, such as Human Resources, Travel Management, Security department, Risk Management, Purchasing, et cetera. 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐥𝐚𝐬𝐬 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐯𝐞𝐥 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐛𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐲𝐨𝐮? During a one-day Masterclass, you will work closely with your peers on assignments and cases built on situations and experiences in the lives of business travellers. The goal of the Masterclass is to expand the participants’ knowledge in the field of expertise of Travel Risk Management aligned to a company’s business travel policy. This one-day workshop is designed to 1) Gaine a better understanding of risk management, especially as it pertains to adverse regions. 2) Learn about specific actions to be taken in cases of emergencies, TRM/Duty of Care. 3) Expand on leadership traits necessary for management to pre-emptively be ahead of crises In case of any questions/remarks, address your questions to NATM Secretariaat via secretariaat@natm.nl or contact Odete Pimenta da Silva, Managing Director NATM, via odete.pimentadasilva@natm.nl 🔥 Not a NATM Member but interested in joining this Masterclass? 📝 Drop a note at odete.pimentadasilva@natm.nl #travelmanagement #business #businesstravel #security #riskmanagement #intelligence #travel #corporatetravel #corporatetravelmanagement #dutyofcare #trm

Global risks and challenges have increased dramatically. Yet the opportunities to expand & operate worldwide have grown too. When it comes to #security there is one common problem for most small & medium-sized businesses: In-house security expertise is a costly product, and it is hard to hire and maintain security professionals. At dyami | strategic security services, we believe in creating cost-effective resilience by offering Security as a Service - a low-cost security solution for companies Dyami acts as the security department for your organisation. Clients who choose the dyami security as a service subscription receive comprehensive access to our security and analyst specialists like we are part of your team. Safeguard your people, operations and assets! Interested? Contact us now or read more about our Security as a Service solution

Date: September 2022 Location: Armenian/Azerbaijani Airspace Parties involved: Republic of Armenia; Republic of Azerbaijan; Nagorno-Karabakh region (in light-yellow in the image); Russian Federation. The Event: On 12/09/2022 there were renewed border clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia around and beyond the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) region, resulting in the deadliest flare-up of hostilities since peace was signed in 2020. The waypoints along the border between the two countries (VETEN, PEMAN, ELSIV, MATAL) were temporarily closed on 13/09 and reopened the next day after a ceasefire was brokered. At the time of writing, only Canada issued airspace warning for both Armenia and Azerbaijan (NOTAM CZUL H3173/22 issued on 15/09 valid until 15/12). Canada advised caution due to potential risks from anti-aviation weaponry and military operations. During the conflict in 2020, a large section of the airspace was closed down among threats of long-range missiles present in the two countries. Germany and France issued airspace warnings of potential risks to aviation from military operations including anti-aviation weaponry. Warnings were withdrawn after the peace deal was signed. Analysis and implications for aviation: Tensions between Armenia-Azerbaijan have been ongoing since the late 1980s. Violations of the ceasefire agreement(s) in the Nagorno-Karabakh area are common, but they do not always escalate. However, as the security situation can change very rapidly, continuous monitoring is necessary. If the violations of the ceasefire are small-scale and remain confined to the NK region, flying to the capitals of Armenia and Azerbaijan is considered safe, avoiding Nagorno-Karabakh. However, one should consider factors such as the type of aircraft, country of registration, and motive of the flight. Avoid Armenian and Azerbaijani airspace if a full-scale conflict re-ignites. About Dyami Aviation Services Our experts have extensive aviation security and intelligence experience at the highest international level; for airlines and corporate jet operators alike. Our services are broad: from AOC application support, security policy design, threat assessments, to crew training. Our security risk & threat assessments focus on overflight risk during flight operations. They contain actionable intelligence to ensure a safe and secure operation. Is it safe for your crew to operate the planned route? What is the actual situation regarding (geo)political factors, crime, corruption, espionage, terrorism or health risks? Our extensive reports are easily understandable to allow you to anticipate properly and make better critical decisions. About Flight Level 470 Flight Level 470 is a growing network with VIP Cabin Crew, Dassault Falcon, Bombardier Global, Gulfstream Captains, First Officers, Instructors, Examiners, Test Pilots, Flight Operational Managers. Our main goal is to have Air Crew only recommended by other FL470 users. We are building a trust-worthy and respectable air crew network, which is now well known in the Aviation Sphere. We can provide the best solution, with the shortest notice, in crewing, consulting and selling. >> www.flightlevel470.com

In cooperation with PMO Security Risk Management, Dyami is offering a 4-day Hostile Environment Awareness Training (HEAT) in the Netherlands, on 1-4 November. The vision of Dyami and PMO Security Risk Management is that security for organizations and companies should be accessible, relevant, and a priority. We believe the world is safer when we share our knowledge – that is why we are collaborating on a 4-day HEAT, bringing some new elements to the training. Dyami experts formulated a well-structured training module on understanding the world of intelligence and espionage, equally critical for all humanitarian missions, that will be presented within the 4-days training. About the training Where: Arnhem (exact location tba) When: 1-4 of November Cost: €1800 pp. (Full board and accommodation included) Content of the course: First Aid for Severe Trauma (FAST) Contextual and Cultural Awareness Armed conflict and Terrorism - Armed attacks, attack by air, small arms fire, shelling, concealment and protection, myths and facts about chemical warfare Civil Unrest International Humanitarian Law and the Humanitarian Principles - Dealing with combatants, visibility, distinction, and compliance Residence Safety Driving & Transport Safety Driving in a Hostile Environment - Checkpoints, ambush, road travel planning, movement procedures Dealing with Armed State and Non-State Actors Travel & Personal Planning Coping with Capture - Arrest, detention, kidnap hostage-taking Communication and Negotiation Mines & Explosives (UXO) Safeguarding Stress Management Fire Safety Understanding Intelligence & Espionage Contacts and official leaflet PMO Security Risk Management - info@pmoexcellence.org Dyami Strategic Security Solutions - Info@dyami.services

Date: Over the last few weeks Where: Damascus, Syria; Ankara, Turkey. Who’s involved: Syrian government, Turkish government, Russian government; Turkey-backed Syrian rebel/opposition forces. What happened? As Russia is pulling out of Syria, Moscow hopes to normalize Turkish-Syrian relations to secure its position in the country and stabilize the region. Over the last couple of weeks, talks with high Turkish (intelligence) officials, including the Undersecretary of the National Intelligence Organization, have laid the groundwork for higher political talks. At a summit in Uzbekistan, Erdogan expressed his wish to meet Assad to talk about the issue. However, Assad could not attend the summit. Since 2015, Russia and Iran have been backing the Syrian government, while Turkey aided the rebel forces opposing Assad. Now, Turkey wants to include rebel forces in the talks, which may hamper Russia’s efforts to bring the two leaders together. With the Russian withdrawal, Iranian militias have been setting up new training camps, headquarters, and warehouses with help of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Sources claim that these training camps are also being used to train Lebanese Hezbollah fighters. Neither Russia nor Turkey wants Iranian influence in Syria. On the weekend of 17-18 September 2022, Turkish forces executed several airstrikes against Assad’s forces and Syrian Democratic Forces (formerly US-backed). These strikes resulted in several casualties. To date, Turkey maintains a military presence across its border with Syria and in areas it controls with the Syrian opposition forces. Analysis: A rapprochement between the Syrian and Turkish governments would drastically change the dynamics of the decade-long Syrian civil war. Although talks between Ankara and Damascus could mean a more stable situation in the country, reaching an agreement between the two nations presents many challenges. Turkey helped the rebel forces to maintain their final significant territorial foothold in Syria. Therefore, if Turkey decides to stop supporting the opposition groups, it is likely they will be neutralized by the Syrian government forces. Ankara has already requested the rebels to be included in the talks. If the talks fail and Russia still decides to withdraw from Syria, Iran will likely get a stronger foothold in the country. This may upset the frail stability of the Middle East. If the talks are successful and the relationship between Syria and Turkey improves, it could have grave implications for the Kurdish population in Syria. Kurds make up about 10% of the Syrian population, making them the largest minority in the country. The Syrian government, however, considers the Kurds to be an enemy of the state, as they played a key role during the uprising which started the Syrian civil war. Turkey has a long history of conflict against the Kurdish population, both within its territories and outside. The Turkish government considers the mainly-Kurdish Syrian People’s Defense Unit (YPG) a terrorist group affiliated with the Turkish Kurdish Worker’s Party (PKK). Civilians escaping the civil war are also likely to be affected by the potential talks. Millions of Syrians fled to neighboring Turkey when the war broke out. With Turkish general elections coming up in June 2023 and internal tensions rising, a deal between Ankara and Syria that will decide the fate of millions of refugees is likely, and forced returns cannot be ruled out.

Over the past three months, Kazakhstan showed important developments in domestic politics, foreign affairs, the economy, and aviation. Short-term motivators for these changes are anchored on the political fallout of the January 2022 protests, the easing of domestic Covid-19 measures, and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Long-term motivators span from a social metamorphosis from Soviet Republic to a prosperous society, a will to de-align from Russian spheres of influence, and a regional inclination to become the center of knowledge, research, commerce, and tourism for Central Asia. While the recently implemented policies by Tokayev's government partially enclose these changes, there is a degree of skepticism as to how true to his policies his government will be. This report should serve as a brief and synthesized overview of the current state of affairs within Kazakhstan, especially useful for those who are currently doing business in or thinking about expanding to the country. You can download here the report. If you have additional questions or require more information, please contact us at info@dyami.services.

The Dutch Ministry of Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation recently announced a large economic fund for Dutch entrepreneurs and enterprises to help rebuild Ukraine. While this is a good sign for the Ukrainian Government, at dyami | strategic security services we believe that there are inherent risks that many Dutch companies are not aware of if they choose to invest their time, money, and people into this plan. Feel free to download and read our one-pager of our safety and security concerns for Dutch businesses considering opportunities in Ukraine here below.

The increasing worldwide tensions show that it is important to make your internationally operating organization resilient. Take advantage of our unique meet & greet sessions in Utrecht with, among others, former director of security services at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Ron Geraets and former Central Intelligence Agency Intelligence Officer; Mohammad Alweshahi Interested? Contact us now!

Date: 4th-7th of August 2022 Location: Taiwanese FIR/Airspace Parties involved: Republic of China (ROC), People’s Republic of China, The United States House speaker Nancy Pelosi; US President Joe Biden; [Taiwan] President Tsai Ing-Wen; [People’s Republic of China] President Xi Jinping. The Event: On 31/07/2022 Nancy Pelosi started her Asia diplomatic trip. This trip includes Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore. When her trip was announced in early 2022, it was rumored, but not confirmed, that she would visit Taiwan. Chinese President Xi Jinping held a call with his US counterpart Joe Biden in which he reportedly said “Those who play with fire will perish by it.” Two weeks prior, on 19/07/2022, China had already warned that if the US House speaker was to visit the island, it would take “resolute and forceful measures.” Under the escort of F-15 fighter jets and KC-135 Tanker aircraft, on the evening of 02/08/2022 Ms. Pelosi landed aboard a USAF C-40 VIP passenger plane at Taipei airport, becoming the highest-ranking American official in 25 years to visit the self-ruled island. China announced live-fire military exercises in retaliation. Images on social media revealed a significant PLA movement toward the Fujian province, the closest to Taiwan in mainland China. The exercises were planned to cross Taiwan’s sovereign territorial waters (in blue) and internal waters (in pink). Soon after, Beijing summoned the US ambassador to China in protest of Ms. Pelosi’s visit. Beijing has also announced new trade restrictions, such as banning exports of fruit, fish and sand to Taiwan. On 03/08/2022, China warned airlines to avoid airspace near Taiwan in six areas of airspace designated as ‘danger zones.’ Flights will be restricted from 12 p.m. 04/08, to 12 p.m. 07/08. This is under the guise of ‘snap naval exercises.’ Analysis and implications: It is important to note that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is not the only politician to visit Taiwan over the last 25 years; but she is the highest ranking. However, a factor contributing to this rise in tensions is that she has a history of opposing the Chinese Communist party, such as visiting Tiananmen Square in 1991. Due to the mass mobilization of Chinese [PLA] troops, naval assault assault units, logistical assets, and the Chinese Air Force, these serve as indicators that an assault could be imminent. But a large question remains whether this is just a show of force, or actually a threat. President Xi Jinping is seeking to be confirmed for a third term during the Communist party’s 20th congress planned for this autumn. It is plausible that these moves are part of a strategy to not look weak in the face of the communist party's other candidates. But this poses a dual risk, as if he proves too hard handed, he may be also viewed as reckless. Additionally, on 01/08/2022, the Chinese Military celebrated its founding anniversary. It seems that a show of force against Taiwan would prove beneficial to such festivities. But it remains questionable as to whether a full blown invasion would be the logical next step for the Chinese Communist Party. For the aviation industry this developing situation causes an immediate security concern. The movement of naval ships, fast jets, and anti-aircraft systems by both the ROC and Chinese military during these heightened times of tension could pose an immediate risk to aircraft operating within the region. Unintentional/intentional shoot downs, intercepts, and mid-air collisions have been aggravated by this situation. It is important to understand that this threat is not limited to the designated red boxes [as noted on the previous page], but any area within Taiwan FIR or Shanghai FIR. This is due to the range that surface to air missiles are capable of hitting (100-240km). Concluding notes: Ms. Pelosi's visit to Taiwan took place against the backdrop of increasingly heated warnings from Beijing. Whereas it is unclear to which extent the latter will retaliate, these events will play a key role in the security developments of the Indo-Pacific. Now that Ms. Pelosi’s visit is over, a military standoff between China and Taiwan is likely to start. The planned drills, if they go forward, would directly challenge what Taiwan defines as its territorial waters. It remains to be seen if the island, and the US military, will be sending boats and planes in the designated ‘danger zones.’ Additionally, the visit, whereas a strong symbolic gesture, may damage Washington’s reach to other key allies in the region, which may not welcome the rising tensions, and in Taiwan itself. Lastly, China may retaliate directly on the US with sanctions or export bans. For the aviation industry, the tensions are causing immediate security concerns in any area within Taiwan FIR or Shanghai FIR. For more in-depth Sitreps, analyses, or bespoke advice on the aviation security and safety concerns regarding this region, or other areas across the globe, please contact Dyami at +31 30 207 2120 or through our webpage.