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When it comes to the safety and well-being of your valued business travelers, there's no room for compromise. That's why we're here to emphasize the importance of investing in professional Travel Security Manager services. In today's dynamic world, ensuring the security of your employees while they're on the move is not just a priority; it's a necessity. Here's why: Risk Mitigation: Traveling exposes your employees to a range of unforeseen risks – from natural disasters to political unrest. Our experienced Travel Security experts have their fingers on the pulse of global events, ensuring that your travelers can navigate potential dangers with a solid plan in place. Emergency Support: Our Travel Security team is available for you, providing assistance and guidance when the unexpected occurs. Your employees can feel confident knowing that help is away. Customized Solutions: Every business trip is unique, as are the security needs accompanying it. Our team work closely with you to tailor security plans that align with your specific travel requirements, ensuring the right level of protection for each journey. Local Expertise: Navigating unfamiliar territories can be challenging. Our Travel Security Managers are well-versed in the intricacies of various destinations, providing invaluable local knowledge to help your travelers make informed decisions and stay safe. Peace of Mind: Nothing beats the peace of mind that comes from knowing your business travelers are in capable hands. With our Travel Risk Management Subscription, you can focus on your core business while we take care of the safety concerns. Protect your most valuable assets – your employees. Let us be your partner in ensuring your business travel endeavours' safety, security, and success. Contact us today to discuss how we can tailor our services to meet your needs. 📞 +31 30 207 2120 📧 eric@dyami.services Travel with confidence. dyami | count on us

Airlines & charter operators operate in an environment of increasing security challenges, including emerging threats and complex regulatory requirements. In this ever-evolving aviation landscape, ensuring the safety and security of passengers, crew, and assets remains paramount. Dyami offers a comprehensive One-Stop Aviation Security Solution to assist aviation security officers & dispatchers in enhancing their capabilities and capacity, streamlining operations, and bolstering security measures. Our solution aims to provide an affordable holistic approach to security risk management that results in more secure and efficient airline or charter operations. Authorities, passengers, aviation underwriters, and aircraft brokers have an increased interest in how aircraft operators implement their security risk management system. We offer specialized access to our expertise in the intricacies of aviation business risk and resilience, to remain constantly aware. We keep you up to date on global events, intelligence, aviation security regulations, and beyond. Our systematic security risk & intelligence management-led approach helps you better anticipate and respond to impacts from actual or potential developments. Therefore you become better in your preventive measures resulting in reducing costs and enabling you to keep your passengers, crew, and aircraft safe. Your challenge Managing aviation operations in a complex world is a challenge. Ensuring the continuity of a safe and secure operation with limited resources can be demanding. What we do We act as your security department supporting your security officer and dispatchers. We help to build an effective security culture tailored to your operational needs, by providing support with: on-call and direct support for all your security-related questions developing security strategies and policies bespoke risk assessments for routes and destinations crew briefings, training, and support implementing and auditing security measures Our first step is sharing knowledge. We provide trusted knowledge experts and trainers from multiple disciplines, including aviation safety and security, airline (cargo) operations, pilots, cabin crew, ground handling, intelligence, foreign affairs, defense, and law enforcement. We maintain our operational mindset. We keep a close eye on people, processes, and culture to ensure that your procedures are both practical and dynamic. Security & Intelligence Risk Management is at the heart of Dyami. We assess the risks involved holistically to ensure that there is the right balance between operational excellence and a safe and secure operation. It’s your license to operate. Dyami is your affordable one-stop solution for secure operations all over the world. Route and Destination Risk Assessments Uncertainty and volatility have become the norm in today's interconnected world. Threats along the flight route, destination, and possible en-route alternates change every day. Stay ahead of geopolitical risks if you conduct global flight operations. At Dyami, we believe in a human-centric approach while making assessments. Our expert team provides the insights you need to proactively address your risks and ensures you stay on top of the geopolitical and aviation risk landscape. Dyami has an experienced team of in-house analysts and experts who monitor (emerging) conflict zones worldwide. We use a mix of closed & open sources and are proud of our network to utilize human intelligence sources in our assessments. We provide support to your security officer, dispatcher, or sales staff to help them anticipate properly and make better critical decisions. We deliver on-demand security risk & threat assessments for any location in the world. With a focus on overflight risks during flight operations. An assessment contains actionable intelligence to ensure a safe and secure operation. While our crew briefings help your crew with their situational awareness so they are better prepared for their trip. Crisis & Emergency Response Dyami is available to clients to provide emergency response action and assistance. ​Emergencies can occur at any time. Dyami action and support can vary from boots on the ground to remote support. We obtain ground truth information about the area before the emergency and disaster mission starts. We offer our aviation security services via a monthly BASIC or FULL membership, billed as a prepaid six-month or annual subscription. Choose a plan that works for you >> When selecting a membership plan for our One-stop Aviation Security Membership, we encourage you to consider the unique needs and priorities of your organization. Our membership plans are designed to cater to a range of requirements, from comprehensive security features to budget-conscious options. If you are seeking a balance between security enhancements and cost-effectiveness, our BASIC Plan provides essential security features and access to our security services, reports, and expert team. Our FULL Plan is ideal if you want to get extended security capabilities including bespoke security manual support or increased use of assessments. Rest assured, regardless of the plan you choose, our commitment to enhancing your security and operational efficiency remains unwavering. We're here to assist you in making an informed decision that aligns perfectly with your objectives. Contact us now for more information on our bespoke membership!

From the fall of Kabul to the lack of governance On August 15, 2021, a significant event happened in Afghanistan as the Taliban reclaimed power, ushering in a series of changes that have reverberated throughout the lives of the Afghan people. This moment was marked by an announcement from the Taliban's spokesperson, Zahibullah Mujahid, who conveyed a message of “newfound openness and inclusivity”. At the end of August 2021, the Taliban assured the Afghans of their intention to permit women to engage in employment and pursue education, while also pledging to establish a secure environment for all citizens. These proclamations stood as promises, for the dawn of a new era. However, as the sands of time have settled over the past two years, a disconcerting pattern of contradiction and regression has emerged. Despite the initial assurances, the Taliban's stance on various matters, particularly those concerning the rights of women and girls, has taken an alarming and regressive turn. The once-promised opportunity for girls to access education has eroded, replaced by a prohibition that casts a shadow over the prospects of an entire generation. Similarly, the promise of women's participation in public life has given way to a restrictive mandate, confining them within their households, with a mandatory male guardian acting as their contact to the outside world. Compounding the concern is the ruthless pursuit of former government officials and military personnel associated with the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces. These individuals now find themselves subjected to a relentless campaign of persecution, punishment, and even extrajudicial execution. The record, documented by the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), tallies at least 237 instances of such extrajudicial executions from August 2021 to June 2022, painting a grim picture of the unraveling situation. While certain aspects of the current situation show a modicum of improvement, including a relative reduction in terrorist attacks and a calmer environment compared to two years prior, the reality remains fraught with challenges. Furthermore, Afghanistan finds itself ensnared in a complex web of international isolation and economic turmoil, precipitated by the events of August 2021. These circumstances have pushed the nation further into poverty, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian crisis. Next to that, the relationship between the Taliban and Pakistan has been more unstable lately, because of a surge in armed attacks on Pakistani soil by a Taliban-related terrorist group. This tension has spurred high-ranking Pakistani officials to voice their concerns, attributing the escalation to the perceived lack of decisive action by the ruling Taliban administration in curtailing the movement of armed groups across the border. In response, the Taliban spokesperson rebuffed these assertions, positing that Pakistani authorities are prone to blame Afghans, rather than fortifying their security apparatus. With the Taliban in power, Afghanistan has also become a playground for other terrorist groups like ISIS, because of the freedom that they have in Afghanistan. It is uncertain what the future of Afghanistan will look like. However, it is likely that the Taliban will not remain in power. Their lack of recognition on the international stage, coupled with their limited experience in governance, raises significant doubts about their ability to effectively lead a nation. Furthermore, there are concerns that the already fragile Afghan economy could face further deterioration under their rule. It is not surprising that a military group like the Taliban is not proficient in governing a country. There is a likelihood that Afghanistan will fall back to its tribal roots and conflicts and that the Taliban will lose control of the provinces. Infighting within the Taliban is also not unthinkable as there are individuals who want more power, there is a discussion on how strict the Taliban rules should be and there is uncertainty on how to deal with economic and diplomatic problems.

Madina Shinwari is an intern at Dyami Strategic Intelligence Services. During the fall of Afghanistan, she was in Kabul. This event changed a lot for her and everyone around her. And it also connected her with Dyami, she shares some of her personal insights. Today is August 17 2023, Two years ago, marked a turning point for many of us, myself included. It brought a mix of profound sorrow and profound gratitude into my life. Experiencing the fall of Afghanistan firsthand, made me realize that there are still so many people suffering from the consequences of choices made by leaders around the world. Despite having visited Afghanistan every year since my early childhood, the pervasive sense of instability that Afghans have endured throughout their lives struck me even more deeply on this day. Seeing people without documents or passports trying to flee, made me feel guilty and dirty about my passport. Why do I deserve to leave in this chaos, but they don’t? Madina is a 17-year-old high school student in Baarn and a member of the UNICEF youth panel. At school, she is part of the student council and UNESCO workgroup in which they represent the voices of the students and organise diverse activities to contribute to the world around us. Being a part of the debate club at school made her participate in the national debate with NJR. There she debated with the secretary of state of health and had conversations with the Dutch minister of justice and security. Having parents who were born in Afghanistan, and a father working in Afghanistan at the intelligence service, it was mandatory for Madina to visit Afghanistan every year. Two years ago, I found myself in the middle of Hamid Karzai airport, scared and not knowing what would happen to me, and all the other Afghans. Seeing the Taliban in front, behind and next to me hitting people with missiles who were trying to flee, seeing bullets flying everywhere but not hearing them, made me feel like I was in another world and that it was all just a dream. It didn’t feel real. The only thing that we all felt during that moment, was sorrow. Seeing your country, your home, your place, being taken away from you, inflicts a pain that cuts deep. It was then that it truly hit me; Afghans have had to live like this for the last 45 years. It made me realize that the government's approach in an emergency like this, must change. Things happened that weren’t supposed to happen, like a plane returning to the Netherlands without anyone in it. But still in this chaos, there were people trying everything they could to help Afghans leave the country, like Eric and Annick from Dyami. Dyami embarked on an extraordinary mission, sparing no effort to evacuate Afghans from their homeland. In the midst of relentless chaos, Dyami displayed unwavering dedication, maintaining a constant 24/7 connection with everyone involved. Their relentless pursuit of a solution led them to engage with individuals, carefully crafting routes that would go unnoticed by the eyes of the Taliban. Against all odds, Dyami managed to orchestrate the evacuation of a significant number of individuals from Afghanistan. To make sure that they reached the airport so with the help of the military, and a small team from the embassy, the Dutch Air Force was able to return them back home. The success achieved is a testament to Dyami's exceptional crisis management skills. Their ability to remain resolute in this situation showcases what true crisis management entails. Dyami’s team can stand proud, knowing that their efforts during that critical time made an immeasurable difference in the lives of so many. Fast forward to today, and I find myself sitting in Dyami’s office - a twist of fate that almost feels ironic. Two years ago, my interest in conflicts, terrorism and diplomacy grew even more. Dyami is the perfect place for me to extend my knowledge on these subjects and gain experience in practice, they offered me to do a mini-internship here. Having this chance as a 17-year-old is incredible. And Dyami looking at my passion, interests, and future goals, instead of my age, speaks volumes about their commitment to nurturing young talents and fostering a true learning environment. Age is just a number when it comes to pursuing dreams. Kabul Evacuation 2021 Read more about the Kabul Evacuation and Dyami in 2021

Date: 15/08/2023 Tension in the Middle East is rising with the US deploying an additional 3000 Marines and two warships to secure commercial shipping in the region. Iran has responded by giving its Islamic Republican Guard Corps Navy additional drones and missiles. This might lead to an escalation in the Middle East especially if Israel decides to attack Iran in order to destroy its nuclear programme.

Uncertainty and volatility have become the norm in today's interconnected world. Staying ahead of geopolitical risks is paramount as businesses and organizations navigate a complex global landscape. Introducing our cutting-edge Geopolitical Foreacsting and Risk Intelligence Membership, your compass to success in these turbulent times! Why are Geopolitical Risk Services Vital? 1. Safeguard Your Investments: In an ever-changing world, political and economic dynamics can impact your investments significantly. Our Geopolitical Risk Services help you identify potential hotspots and mitigate risks, ensuring your investments remain resilient and lucrative. 2. Navigate Global Expansion: Understanding geopolitical risks is essential for companies eyeing international expansion. We provide in-depth analysis, highlighting potential challenges and opportunities in new markets and empowering your global expansion strategies. 3. Fortify Supply Chains: Global supply chains face constant disruptions due to geopolitical events. Our services help you identify vulnerable points in your supply chain, enabling you to implement robust contingency plans and maintain seamless operations. 4. Make Informed Decisions: Informed decisions are the bedrock of successful ventures. Our Geopolitical Risk Services deliver real-time insights into geopolitical developments, enabling you to make prudent choices and stay ahead of the competition. 5. Ensure Business Continuity: Geopolitical risks can cause unexpected disruptions, threatening the very continuity of your business. Our services provide actionable strategies to protect your business from adverse geopolitical shocks. 6. Stay Compliant: Regulatory landscapes can shift swiftly, affecting businesses operating across borders. Our experts keep you updated on compliance requirements, ensuring your business adheres to evolving international norms. 7. Reputation Management: Geopolitical risks can impact public perceptions of your brand. By understanding and navigating these risks, you safeguard your reputation and build trust among customers, partners, and stakeholders. 8. Embrace Opportunities: Geopolitical risks are not just about challenges but also unique opportunities for growth and innovation. Our services help you identify untapped potential in emerging markets and harness them to your advantage. Partner with Us Today! We genuinely believe in working with our clients in a close partnership. With our Geopolitical Risk Services Membership by your side, you'll be prepared to embrace the future confidently. Let us be your strategic ally in navigating the dynamic geopolitical landscape, so you can focus on what you do best – driving success and building a thriving global enterprise! Contact us now > eric@dyami.services dyami | Count on us

Date: 03/08/2023 Where: Baghdad, Iraq Who’s involved: Iraq, Denmark, Sweden, Shia protestors, right-wing protestors. What happened? Iraq is currently experiencing unrest following an incident in which an individual burned a copy of the Quran outside a mosque in Stockholm. This provocative act ignited a firestorm of emotions among Shia Iraqis, leading to hundreds of them converging to the Swedish Embassy in Baghdad on 20/07/2023. The compound witnessed a tense standoff as supporters of the prominent Shia leader, Muqtada al-Sadr, occupied its grounds for a span of 15 minutes. Iraq’s foreign minister took action by summoning Sweden’s ambassador to address this delicate matter. The international community has also been on alert about these events in recent months. Responding to a plea from Pakistan, the United Nations Human Rights Council convened an urgent meeting to address the burning of the Quran on 04/07/2023. The situation escalated further when Iraq expelled the Swedish ambassador on 20/07/2023 in the wake of widespread outrage in the country. In response to escalating security concerns, the Swedish embassy in Iraq took a precautionary step by temporarily relocating its operations to Stockholm on 21/07/2023. The streets of Baghdad witnessed further dissent on 22/07/2023 as hundreds attempted to breach the city’s Green Zone. This surge of protesters vehemently rejected the burning of the Quran. The security forces, wanting to maintain order, intervened by blocking access to the Danish embassy. On 24/07/2023, the turmoil intensified as two protesters again set fire to a copy of the Quran, this time outside the Iraqi embassy in Copenhagen. The incident prompted Iraq’s foreign minister to issue a strong plea directed at European Union member states urging them to swiftly reconsider the boundaries of “freedom of expression” and the “right to demonstrate.” Iraq implored these nations to reflect on the delicate balance between free speech and respect for religious sensitivities. Sweden and Denmark are still in the process of investigating if their laws on freedom of speech can be changed on the basis of public safety and the international safety of citizens and Swedish and Danish interests. Analysis: It is highly likely that the Iraqi demonstrations will intensify in response to the recent Quran burnings. The repercussions of this event are also expected to resonate in Sweden and Denmark, leading to more similar acts. Consequently, heightened turmoil and increased instability are anticipated in both these countries, with Iraq facing particular vulnerabilities due to its unstable political and economic conditions. The impact of these recent developments has been keenly felt by the Iraqi population. Another burning of religious texts could potentially lead to an escalation, making a terrorist act more likely and resulting in significant harm and casualties. The terrorist threat is particularly high in countries such as Sweden and Denmark. Conclusion: The situation in Iraq and in Europe is most likely going to escalate, especially with this type of incident happening repeatedly. If Iraqi and Swedish authorities’ actions will not lead to a resolution of the tensions, there is a chance that radicalized militants might plan attacks against Danish and Swedish targets. However, the United Nations organizing an urgent meeting sends a significant message to the international community.

Executive Summary The incidents from the last few months show the importance of keeping up-to-date with the recurring and emerging security threats to the business aviation sector in Europe and the wider world. The need for timely analysis and accurate information regarding new threats is a necessity to plan ahead and take precautionary measures. There are several new threats which pose potential risks for business aviation around the world. In Europe, climate protests have targeted runways and damaged aircraft in Germany. The risk of climate protests pose particular problems for the business aviation sector as they are explicitly the target. Commercial and private aircraft have experienced significant delays because of a sharp increase in hoax bomb threats. Global 1.1. Drug trafficking Business model jets have been and continue to be used for drug/contraband smuggling across the globe. These flights are usually to and from Latin America, Ethiopia and India. The aim of using business jets instead of commercial aviation is to lower the chance of getting caught, and increase the volume per flight. 1.2. Human trafficking In order to improve the ease of human trafficking, and to stay away from prying eyes of airport security as well as cabin crew, traffickers prefer to use business jets if they can. This problem is a worldwide ordeal which is hard to combat. 1.3. Valuables trafficking Ethiopia and India have become hubs for trafficking of valuables, such as wildlife and gold. While the majority of the detected smuggling was on commercial flights, there has been an increase in (attempts to) smuggle with business jets and via smaller regional airports. Europe 2.1. Strikes Over the last few months, air traffic controllers and airport employees have gone on strikes to protest wages and/or working conditions. Some of the French strikes impacted the entire airspace of France, while others resulted in delays and in some cases in airports becoming non-operational. 2.2. Climate activism The last two months have seen continued climate protests throughout Europe targeting airports and business aviation. In some cases, aircraft were deliberately damaged by activists. There have been calls for increased security but protests targeting airports and especially business aviation are likely to continue in the coming months. 2.3. Ban on domestic flights The Belgian minister of transport has pushed for a ban for domestic flights in Belgium. Seventyone percent of these flights are done by business jets and government, training, maintenance and other exceptional flights will be exempt from the ban. Middle East 3.1. Protests In Israel, large protests disrupted the traffic around Ben Gurion International Airport [LLBG] and caused several delays. More protests can be expected in the coming weeks. 3.2. Increased military presence Above the Strait of Hormuz, there is a significant increase in military presence to deter Iran from seizing vessels in the area. The increased tensions and military activities are expected to remain in the coming weeks. 3.3. Overflight Risks Recent developments in the region have caused a need for extra security measures differing per country. These are important to adhere to, as ignoring the risks while overflying can lead to catastrophic results. Asia 4.1. New Zealand pilot hostage Papua On February 7, independence fighters from West-Papuan independence fighters took a New Zealand pilot hostage to demand independence from Indonesia. On the 31th of May, a video message appeared in which the pilot said that if demands are not met within two months, he will be executed. Since then, several rescue attempts failed, resulting in casualties on both sides, and the demands of the hostage takers were lowered. On July 20, 2023, an Indonesian official said that negotiation attempts are still ongoing. 4.2. Regional instability Political instability has led to recurring protests and (armed) attacks, particularly in northern India, Pakistan, Myanmar and the border region of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Instabilities in some countries prove themselves risky to aviation, including business aviation. This ranges from minimum flight levels to security threats on the ground. 4.3. Hoax bomb threats In India, there has been an increase in fake bomb threats to airplanes and airports. While not specifically targeted on business aviation, the fake calls disrupt airport operations and can result in significant delays and searches on business jets. 4.4. Airport attacks In Indonesia’s Papua province, armed groups have continued to target airports and low flying aircraft. Both military and civilian airplanes were shot while flying at low altitudes near airports in eastern Indonesia. Africa 5.1. Overflight risks Recent developments in the region have caused a need for extra security measures differing per country. These are important to adhere to, as ignoring the risks while overflying can lead to catastrophic results. 5.2. Illicit trafficking Addis Ababa Bole International Airport [HAAB] has become a trafficking hub for wildlife and narcotics. The Ethiopian Customs commission stated that it is struggling with the growing sophistication and capacity of smugglers, which is a notable pattern throughout the region. North America 6.1. Trafficking Over the last two months, cartels and other criminal organizations have continued to use private aircraft to smuggle narcotics and for human trafficking. The lack of security for private flights, especially at smaller regional airports, makes it easier for traffickers. 6.2. Protests Protestors have disrupted flight operations at several airports in Mexico, the United States and Canada. While not always specifically targeted at aviation, airports are becoming an increasingly used site for protests. South America 7.1. Trafficking Cartels continue to use private aircraft for drug trafficking throughout the continent. The criminal organizations use old aircraft for these flights because a large number of aircraft are destroyed after only a small number of trafficking flights. 7.2. Venezuela overflight ban canceled In June 2023, the FAA canceled a four-year long ban on overflights of Venezuela below flight level 260. While no countries have active restrictions, overflight remains risky because of risks of misidentification and the security threats on the ground. Oceania 8.1. Protests against aviation There have been several protests against aviation, and especially business jets, in Australia and New Zealand. The crowds protested both noise and climate concerns but did not cause any significant disruptions to airport operations during the protests. 8.2. Emergency response concerns Airport-based firefighters in Australia have raised concerns about a draft restructuring of the service. Strikes which can impact airport operations are expected in the coming weeks, especially at regional airports. Forecast The threats to the business aviation sector in June 2023 and July 2023 are likely to pose continuing threats in the coming months. Steps are being taken to increase security at European airports, but climate protestors are likely to continue targeting airports and especially business aviation. In Mexico, non-aviation protests have targeted airports as well and received considerable media coverage. As a result, more protests at airports are expected in the coming months. While not specifically targeted on business aviation, there is an increase in hoax bomb threats in India. In Africa, Asia and South America, there continues to be widespread instability and the use of aviation for trafficking and drug trafficking. The identified security risks are likely to pose threats for the foreseeable future. Recognizing the potential risks and creating scenarios are vital for security for the business aviation sector. Global 1.1. Drug trafficking Drug trafficking is still a present risk for business aviation. For organized crime groups and cartels, business aviation is often the preferred method of transportation. There are numerous cases of drugs, or other valuable goods such as wildlife and gold, trafficking by cabin and flight crew on commercial flights. It is possible that cabin or flight crew on private jets could smuggle illegal goods too, emphasizing the need to be vigilant. Throughout Latin America, cartels have continued to use business jets to smuggle large amounts of narcotics over long distances. These jets are often acquired in the United States and then destroyed after a single or very few flights to avoid detection. It is important to clearly identify when asked to minimize the risk of misidentification by law enforcement and/or the military. 1.2. Human trafficking With human trafficking still being a major issue to this day, the involvement of business aircraft is to be expected. In commercial aviation steps have been made and are still being made to improve the awareness and the prevention of human trafficking. While most of these measures have generally been effective for commercial aviation, it could push human traffickers into finding other solutions. One of these solutions for human traffickers is business/private aviation. If a trafficking organization can overcome the increased costs of using business aviation, it allows for flights to smaller airports with less experienced and limited security compared to larger commercial airports. Additionally, it is easier to bribe or blackmail security personnel to turn a blind eye to human trafficking, especially in unstable countries or regions. Europe 2.1. Strikes Over the last two months, air traffic controllers and airport employees have gone on strikes to protest wages and/or working conditions. Especially in France, these strikes have disrupted the entire airspace of the country multiple times, while others resulted in significant delays and airport closures. More strikes can be expected in the coming months. 2.2. Climate activism The last two months have seen continued climate protests throughout Europe targeting airports and business aviation. In Germany, private aircraft were deliberately damaged with (spray)paint during these protests. Other actions include blocking taxi and runways and protests on tarmac where the private aircraft are parked. There have been calls for increased security at the targeted airports but protests targeting airports, and especially business aviation, are likely to continue in the coming months. 2.3. Ban on domestic flights The Belgian minister of transport has pushed for a ban for domestic flights in Belgium. Seventyone percent of these flights are done by business jets. There will be exceptions for government, training, maintenance and other atypical flights. Other countries are considering similar bans, but Belgium appears to be leading in this effort. 2.4. Drug trafficking On June 24, a ‘’small private plane’’ was intercepted by a French Rafale fighter jet after flying in restricted airspace. During the escort, the pilot dropped several packages of narcotics and threatened airport employees upon landing. The pilot was later arrested. Middle East 3.1. Protests In Israel, large protests disrupted the traffic around Ben Gurion International Airport [LLBG] and caused several delays. More protests can be expected in the coming weeks. There have also been large protests in Baghdad, but these protests targeted Western embassies and disruptions around the airport were minimal. 3.2. Increased military presence There is a significant increase in military presence above the Strait of Hormuz to deter Iran from seizing vessels in the area. The increased tensions and military activities are expected to remain in the coming weeks. Avoid flying over the Strait of Hormuz and clearly identify when asked to minimize the risk of misidentification. 3.3. Overflight Risks Developments in the region have caused a need for extra security measures. These include an advised minimum flight level of 320 over Iraq, with a focus on northern Iraq. Additionally, GPS interference is to be expected when overflying the country as well as Lebanon, Turkey and Israel. The airspace above Iran, Afghanistan (except for P500/G500), Yemen and Syria is still unsafe for Western aviation. Overflying Saudi Arabia is safe, as long as flying above FL260. Asia 4.1. Pilot held hostage in West Papua (Indonesia) The pilot taken hostage in West Papua to demand independence is still being held by his captors. Since the capture on February 7, the hostage takers have freed the passengers and lowered demands. Negotiations have stranded numerous times and several rescue attempts failed, resulting in casualties on both sides. The indepence fighters have threatened to kill the pilot if demands, which are not publicly known, are not met and have published several videos of the pilot in captivity. On July 20, a senior official of the Indonesian military said that negotiation attempts are still ongoing and that the pilot is alive and healthy. 4.2. Regional instability Political instability has led to recurring protests and (armed) attacks, particularly in northern India, Pakistan, Myanmar and the border region of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Instabilities prove themselves risky to aviation, including business aviation. The instability in northern India poses a serious risk to aircraft on the ground, while the unrest in Pakistan and Myanmar introduce threats to overflight as well. As a result of proliferation of anti-air weapons, a minimum flight level of 300 AGL is advised. The tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia have resulted in armed conflict without warning numerous times. Since both countries operate advanced air defense systems, overflying the border region should be avoided. 4.3. Fake bomb threats In India, there has been an increase in fake bomb threats to airplanes and airports. While not specifically targeted on business aviation, the fake calls disrupt airport operations and can result in significant delays and searches on business jets. 4.4. Airport attacks In Indonesia’s Papua province, armed groups have continued to target airports and low flying aircraft. On July 18, armed assailants shot at a civilian plane carrying military personnel at Pogapa Airport. It is unclear whether the assailants knew military personnel was onboard, but armed groups have targeted civilian aircraft in the past. It is expected that these attacks will continue in the coming months. Africa 5.1. Overflight risks Overflying Africa has risks, which differ per country. Libya and Sudan are the only countries with a do not fly advisory while most other countries can be overflown by sticking to a security advisory. Egypt: advice to fly above flight level 300 over the Sinai region due to terrorist organizations in possession of anti-air weapons Ethiopia: the Tigray region remains unstable even though an official peace deal was signed in November. The advice is to avoid overflying the region because of the presence of anti-air systems. Somalia: advisory to not overfly the country below flight level 300 because of the instability in the country in combination with the presence of anti-air systems. Kenya: the border region has an overspill effect of the civil war in Somalia, thus posing the same threat as in Somalia itself. The advisory is to not fly below flight level 300. Mali: militants are in possession of anti-air systems and thus the advice is to not fly below flight level 300 over the country. Niger: as a result of the political instability, the advice is to avoid flying over Niger Western Sahara: due to the conflict in the region between Morocco and the independence movement in the region, there is a risk of proliferation of anti-air weapons. The advice is to stick to a flight level of 250 AGL or more. 5.2. Political instability Political instability has resulted in unpredictable protests and revolts throughout Africa. The political violence in Sudan and Niger has led to serious security risks for aircraft on the ground and overflights. It is important to stay up-to-date with the latest developments to minimize the risk of getting caught in armed violence while staying in a vulnerable African country or region. 5.3. Illicit trafficking Ethiopia’s Addis Ababa Bole International Airport [HAAB] has become a trafficking hub for wildlife and narcotics. The Ethiopian Customs commission stated that it is struggling with the growing sophistication and capacity of smugglers, which is a notable pattern throughout the region. North America 6.1. Trafficking Over the last two months, cartels and other criminal organizations have continued to use private aircraft to smuggle narcotics and for human trafficking. These organizations regularly use private flights to and from smaller regional airports in the south of the United States because of limited security. Airport personnel and/or the flight crew can be coerced or bribed into aiding the traffickers to further ease the smuggling. 6.2. Protests On June 15, a two-day long protest at Culiacán International Airport [MMCL] in Mexico ended. A group of farmers protested low prices for the crops by preventing aircraft from landing or taking off from the airport. While the protestors left the airport after talks, the significant media attention might be a motivation to protest at Mexican airports more frequently. Other non-aviation related protests and strikes by airport employees caused disruptions throughout the United States and Canada. South America 7.1. Trafficking Cartels continue to use private aircraft, ranging from smaller Cessna to business jets, for drug trafficking throughout the continent. The criminal organizations use old aircraft for these flights because a large number of aircraft are destroyed after only a small number of trafficking flights. 7.2. Venezuela overflight ban canceled In June 2023, the FAA canceled a four-year long ban on overflights of Venezuela below flight level 260. While no countries have active restrictions, overflight remains risky because of risks of misidentification and the security threats on the ground. Oceania 8.1. Protests against aviation There have been several protests against aviation, and especially business jets, in Australia and New Zealand. Hundreds of people protested both noise and climate concerns at various airports throughout Australia and New Zealand. The crowds did not cause any significant disruptions to airport operations during the protests, but more protests are expected in the coming months. 8.2. Emergency response concerns Airport-based firefighters in Australia have raised concerns about a draft to restructure the service. If implemented, airport-based firefighters are not allowed to respond to incidents outside the airport and would see fewer to no emergency response personnel stationed at regional airports. The firefighters’ union threatened with strikes which could impact airport operations in the near future, especially at smaller regional airports.

Title: Intelligence/Research Analyst Internship. Who are we? In a world with growing risks, organizations need different solutions when it comes to their corporate social responsibility, both at home and abroad. Dyami —which is a full-service strategic security provider— lives by its mission statement of enabling you to thrive; safely and successfully. To do this, our team provides strategic outlooks and geopolitical analyses, security risk & threat intelligence management reports, travel security advice, aviation services, and diverse types of training. At dyami, you will be working alongside a team of analysts and security experts with backgrounds in the private, public, and non-profit sectors. Job Description: The intern will work within the intelligence unit at dyami and report to the Lead Analyst. Your responsibilities and taskings will include: Following and analyzing current and emerging local, regional, and international security trends. Contribute to research, identifying security-related issues in volatile environments and conflict regions. Helping with security risk assessment for stakeholders. Contribute to Dyami’s intelligence cycle. Assists in the day-to-day operations of a start-up company. Who are we looking for? Ability to critically analyze qualitative information, eagerness to learn and to be a team player. You have good organizational and communication skills, including writing clearly and concisely. You preferably are enrolled/have recently graduated from a master in security studies, conflict studies, international relations, intelligence/crisis management, journalism, or any related field. Excellent command of English, both spoken and written. Fluency in any additional languages is a strong plus. A flexible attitude is essential, as Dyami B.V. is a young and rapidly growing company. You also must possess an international mindset; intercultural sensitivity is important. Please note: you have to be located in the Netherlands and able to reach our office in Utrecht. What we offer: Practical learning opportunities to apply analytical capabilities to real-world situations. An opportunity to develop professional analytical writing skills. Substantial feedback on your work by a variety of experts. Exposure to intelligence and security and risk management research methodologies. Exposure as an analyst on our website, social media, and through the extensive network of our team. The opportunity to work in a young and growing company. Internship allowance: This internship offers €350.00 gross a month for a 36-hour work week. Interested? If you are interested in applying for this position at dyami, please send the following documents: A CV; A brief cover letter that mentions your main topic(s) of interest (max one page and can be attached as email text); One writing sample of around 2 pages, preferably about a specific country, conflict, or current geopolitical situation. This can be an extract of previous (academic) work. Please send your application to: dewis@dyami.services, with the topic “Application Intelligence/Research Analyst internship. (YOUR NAME)” before July 30, 2023. This internship follows conventional 09:00-17:00 work hours, Monday through Friday. The start date is in September 2023 and is expected to end in January 2024. We're looking forward to meeting you!

Date: 14/07/2023 Who’s involved: Hezbollah, Iran’s IRGC (Islamic Republican Guard Corps), Syria’s president Assad, the IDF (Israeli Defense Forces), Lebanese government. What happened? Hezbollah, a Shi'ite terrorist organization operating from Lebanon and sponsored by Iran and Syria, has been actively seeking to increase its influence in Lebanon and the broader region. Hezbollah holds considerable influence over Lebanon's political system. Without a president since October 2022, Hezbollah has obstructed parliament’s attempts to elect a president by casting blank ballots in parliamentary sessions. Hezbollah has placed two tents and ten men on Israeli controlled soil in the North of Israel. The IDF has not yet responded to the incursion and there is a discussion on whether or not to bomb the tents or just leave them be, since they pose no threat to anyone. The leader of Hezbollah announced on 12/07/2023 that Israel risks an all out war if it attacks the tents. Beirut international airport seems to be coming more and more under control of Hezbollah. They have plans to build a second terminal that will function as a hub for Hezbollah related transport of drugs and weapons. Drug smuggling is the main income of Hezbollah next to its financing by Iran. Weapons coming in from Iran also have to come through Beirut airport. According to estimates done by the IDF, Hezbollah has upscaled its capacity of being able to fire rockets and missiles at Israel. The capacity has gone from 90 rockets per day to up to 4000 rockets per day. Hezbollah has given Palestinian terrorist groups approval to fire rockets at Israel from Lebanese territory. This is a significant change in policy from Hezbollah. In May 2023 Hezbollah organized an event in the Bekaa Valley in Lebanon where they showed off their military skills, weapons and training to the international press. Hezbollah spokespersons then emphasized that they were ready for war with Israel. During the recent protests in Iran, after the killing of a woman by the religious police Hezbollah has been volunteering soldiers to help put down the protests. These soldiers are known for their brutal attacks and violence against protestors. Analysis: It is likely that Hezbollah will get a greater grip on Lebanon if it manages to get a president-elect that is loyal to the organization. There have been 12 votes on electing a president since elections in 2022, but no candidate has had the majority support from parliament, which is divided across sectarian lines, with Hezbollah being one of the bigger, if not the biggest, players in the system. If the IDF decides to attack the two tents that have been placed by Hezbollah on Israeli territory it is reasonable to assume that Hezbollah will retaliate by firing rockets at the North of Israel in a bid to start a war with the country. This will lead to an extensive military operation from the IDF into the South of Lebanon, which in turn will lead to large numbers of casualties on both sides, including many civilian deaths. If the IDF chooses not to attack or remove the two Hezbollah tents there is a chance that Hezbollah will send in more troops into Israeli territory in order to provoke a military incident. With Hezbollah taking control over Beirut International Airport it is likely that its drug smuggling operation will develop into a bigger operation and will then be an even bigger source of financing and make Hezbollah less dependent on money coming from Iran and Syria. But there does not seem to be a reason for Hezbollah to be more independent since the organization seems quite content with its connections to Iran and Syria. The IRGC (Islamic Republican Guard Corps) will be able to deliver more weapons to Hezbollah if the organization takes more control over Beirut International Airport. Flights from Iran to Lebanon are already quite frequent but with its own terminal at the airport Hezbollah will be even more blatant about the weapons coming in from Iran. If Israel gets into some form of conflict with Iran, maybe over the possible manufacturing of a nuclear bomb, Hezbollah will form a front in the North from where it will attack Israel on Iran’s behalf. With Syria’s president Assad being reintroduced into the Arab League recently there is a chance that Hezbollah will open more bases in Syria in order to help Assad with putting down the rebellion in the country. There will be no backlash coming from other Arab countries if Syria intensifies its repression of rebel forces. This will give Hezbollah a bigger footprint in the region and it could use Syria as an Eastern front if it wants to attack Israel. Conclusion: It seems that Hezbollah is trying to regain its status as a major player in the region. Hezbollah is putting pressure on Lebanon’s domestic politics to extend its influence in the country. Externally Hezbollah is putting pressure on Israel by illegally placing militants inside Israel’s borders and calling for a war if the IDF does something about it. With Syria back in the fold of the Arab League, Hezbollah has more space to assert itself since it does not have to fear a backlash from other Arab countries. With the backing of Assad and the IRGC Hezbollah feels it can challenge Israel and any other adversaries in the region. Hezbollah’s drug and weapon smuggling operation will be expanded by creating its own terminal at Beirut International Airport. This will probably mean a spike in finances coming in for the terrorist group that has traditionally had ties with, for instance, the Irish Mafia. The coming weeks will make clear whether or not Hezbollah, or Israel, is ready for a physical confrontation instead of just a propaganda war.

Written by Alessia Cappelletti, Jacob Dickinson, Kevin Heller, Marnix van 't Hoff Russia: Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin leads an armed mutiny. Russia-Ukraine: Ukraine starts the counter-offensive amid concerns about the nuclear power plant of Zaporizhzhia and deadly Russian air strikes. Sudan: Fighting in Sudan continues, leading to more humanitarian concerns and crimes against humanity allegations. France: Riots erupt after a police officer shot and killed 17-year-old Nahel M. Israel-Palestine: Attacks from both sides continue while Netanyahu pushes the Reform Bill forward. Vietnam-China: Tensions rise as Chinese traffic, frequency, and length of incursions in Vietnam’s EEZ increase. Honduras: A deadly riot in a women’s prison led to a military crackdown on prisoners around the country. Burkina Faso: Reports of war crimes are published while the situation deteriorates. Serbia-Kosovo: Tensions escalate and Serbian authorities arrest three Kosovar police officers. Myanmar: The conflict continues, the humanitarian situation deteriorates, and Thailand meets with junta generals. Armenia-Azerbaijan: Peace talks continue despite attacks. Conflicts, June 2023 1. Russia Wagner group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin led an armed mutiny against the Russian military on 23-24 June 2023. Putin called it a ‘stab in the back’ for Russia and called anyone participating in operations a traitor. This posed the most serious challenge to Putin’s regime since the war against Ukraine began in February 2022. For less than 24 hours, Wagner troops took over the southern city of Rostov-on-Don and moved north toward Moscow, reaching approximately 200 kilometers from the capital. Roads leading to the capital were barricaded and destroyed by Russian troops, and Moscow was put on high alert. However, around 20:00, Belarussian President Lukashenko announced that he brokered a deal between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group, which led Prigozhin and all of his fighters to return to base and vacate Rostov-on-Don. Since then, the movements of Prigozhin have been unclear, although the agreement stipulated that he would go into exile in Belarus. Prigozhin had been arguing for weeks that the Russian war in Ukraine was being badly fought, accusing Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu of starving Wagner troops of ammunition. In early 2023, Wagner was barred from recruiting more prisoners, and on June 10, 2023, Shoigu announced that Wagner soldiers would have to sign contracts with his ministry – essentially ceasing to exist as a separate group. As a result of the mutiny and the subsequent Belarussian-brokered deal, no charges against Prigozhin and his followers were pressed, but few details have been released. The Wagner soldiers who didn’t participate in the mutiny can now sign contracts with the Defense Ministry or retire. The fate of the Wagner Group and that of their operations abroad remain unclear, and doubts about Putin’s internal grip on power arose. The upcoming months will be crucial to determine in which direction Russian foreign policy, the war in Ukraine, and the country’s stability will head. 2. Russia-Ukraine Ukraine started the well-awaited counter-offensive in June and quickly regained small pieces of territory. The Russian army claims, however, that the counter-offensive is a failure and that Ukraine lost a large number of tanks and heavy infantry vehicles of Western manufacture. For the moment, it seems that the Ukrainian army will be facing resistance from Russian defensive lines until they find a breakthrough point. Throughout the month, Ukrainian cities were bombarded with Russian drones and missiles, killing large numbers of civilians, including one deadly strike on a food court in Kramatorsk on June 27 that killed 16 people and injured 91. The Ukrainian government claimed later that Russia had plans to damage or destroy the nuclear power plant Zaporizhzhia by July 5, but Russia denied any such plans. While the Wagner Group started a violent insurrection in Russia that turned international attention away from the conflict, this was too brief for the Ukrainian Army to take advantage of in the battleground. The implications of the Wagner rebellion for the future of the Ukrainian counter-offensive are not yet known. 3. Sudan The conflict in Sudan has intensified over the past month as neither the Rapid Support Force (RSF) nor the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) gained ground since the beginning of the conflict in April 2023. Intense fighting has taken place in Khartoum with heavy artillery and air strikes as both sides vie for control of the city. The western region of Darfur has also seen heavy fighting, with reports of civilians targeted for their ethnicity by the RSF and other Arab militia. The United Nations has spoken of ‘crimes against humanity’ in the region, where the conflict has taken an ethnic dimension. The death count is reported to have reached 3,000 civilians, with 2.2 million refugees displaced to neighboring countries. Ceasefires negotiated between the RSF and the SAF and the US and Saudi Arabian governments have failed to hold for longer than two days, with repeated violations reported. Egypt has tightened restrictions on refugees fleeing the conflict. Alerts and developing situations, June 2023 1. France On 27 June, a police officer shot and killed 17-year-old Nahel M, starting riots across the country with French police accused of racial discrimination. Rioters resorted to looting public buildings, stole lethal weapons from police stations, and attacked public buildings, including a mayor’s home. Thousands of police were deployed across France to quell the riots, with hundreds of arrests as a result. The police officer who shot and killed Nahel M. was charged with homicide at the end of June, but this did not stop the riots. French President Macron suggested that the intense periods of the riots have passed. However, fears of further riots have led to bans on the sale of fireworks and an additional 45,000 police deployed on the streets on Bastille Day, 14 July. 2. Israel-Palestine The conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians saw a surge in smaller but significant incidents. There were several Palestinian terrorist attacks on Israeli civilians and soldiers, while Israeli ultra-nationalist settlers attacked Palestinian homes and cars and injured over 145 people, and the IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) made several incursions into Palestinian areas killing and capturing Palestinian militants and civilians. In the same month, prime minister Netanyahu pushed the Reform Bill forward. The Reform Bill is highly contested by a large part of the Israeli population and has led to massive protests and strikes. In a bid to please the right-wing parties that support the government, there has been little to no crackdown on the ultra-nationalist, orthodox, and settler civilians attacking Israeli-Arabs and Palestinians. However, there has been a surge of violence from the police and the IDF towards Palestinian militants and civilians inside Palestinian territories. 3. Vietnam-China In June, China sent more patrol and naval vessels into Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone in the disputed area of South China Sea, raising tensions between the countries. A Chinese coast guard ship stayed and observed Vietnam’s oil and gas projects in the EEZ in an attempt to normalize China’s claims over Vietnam. Hanoi rejects China’s assertion of the “nine-dash line,” describing it as a violation of its sovereignty and its economic interests. According to the nine-dash map demarcation, China claims sovereignty over 80% of the South China Sea. The recent clashes demonstrate China’s militarization of the South China Sea and power projection against other claimants such as the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam. With China’s actions increasingly pulling the US closer to the Southeast Asian claimant states, the intensification disputes over the South China Sea are set to continue. 4. Honduras On June 20, the deadliest riot in a women’s prison in Honduras erupted, in which 46 women lost their lives. Two rival gangs, the Barrio 18 and MS-13, have been fighting for control over Honduras’ prisons for years, resulting in dozens of deaths. During the riot, gang members attacked each other with machetes, guns, knives, and flammable liquid, setting people on fire. President Castro quickly reinstalled military oversight, despite her attempt to demilitarize the prison system one month before the riots. The Honduran Armed Forces announced on June 26 the beginning of an operation to ‘regain control of the prisons.’ This military operation reflects the way neighboring country El Salvador deals with gang violence in its prison system. Human rights groups have denounced both countries' hard lines on crime and ineffective (and at times inhumane) prison systems. Honduras declared a state of emergency in December 2022 in an attempt to curb long-standing issues with gang violence in the country. 5. Burkina Faso At the end of June 2023, Human Rights Watch published an additional report documenting the human rights abuses, unlawful killings, and disappearances perpetrated by the Burkinabe Army since February. Since 2016, Burkina Faso has been struggling with jihadist insurgencies linked to Al Qaeda and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara, which crossed from Mali. To cope with the violence, the government announced a general mobilization to give the state ‘all necessary means’ to combat the terrorist threat and recapture the territory lost to the insurgents. These would include ‘all actions’ and a state of emergency in which the president would have the power to restrict civil liberties. In this framework, innocent civilians are often targets of armed forces’ raids and violence, which constitute a war crime under international humanitarian law. Follow-ups on previous conflict monitoring reports 1. Serbia-Kosovo Tensions between Serbia and Kosovo have escalated significantly in the last month, continuing the frictions of May 2023. Following boycotted elections in the north of Kosovo, riots broke out involving Serbs living in Kosovo, police officers, and NATO peacekeepers. On 14 June, Serbian authorities arrested three Kosovar police officers claiming they were attempting to infiltrate the country. Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vučić put the military on high alert and moved troops to the border with Kosovo in response. The tit-for-tat events and heightened rhetoric suggest that the conflict is likely to escalate in the future. 2. Myanmar The conflict in Myanmar remained highly volatile in June, with disparate pro-democracy opposition groups resisting the junta’s attempts to control the country. The junta’s latest offensive took place in the North-West of the country with the use of Russian-supplied advanced fighting jets striking villages. Human rights abuses are widespread as the military continues to bomb villages suspected of holding resistance groups. The humanitarian situation worsened as Cyclone Mocha tore through the country in May, destroying houses and displacing an estimated 100,000 people. Responses to the disaster were carried out amid the conflict, with relief efforts facing significant hurdles. At the regional level, Thailand drew criticism from other ASEAN states for meeting with junta generals in an attempt to bring the Myanmar junta back to the ASEAN fold. With no consensus among ASEAN member states on the conflict, Myanmar’s instability looks set to continue over the coming months. More information about the civil war in Myanmar can be found in Dyami’s previous conflict monitoring report. 3. Armenia-Azerbaijan As mentioned in Dyami’s previous conflict monitoring report, the opening of a checkpoint by Azerbaijan on the Lachin corridor in April sparked violent clashes and protests between the countries. Peace talks between the countries are ongoing but continue to be undermined by routinely occurring skirmishes. On June 28, four Armenian servicemen were killed after Azerbaijan carried out strikes along the Nagorno-Karabakh border. The day before, Azerbaijan stated one of its troops had been shot, but Karabakh Armenian denied the accusation. On June 27, US Secretary Anthony Blinken announced the start of another round of negotiations. During previous talks, Armenia declared for the first time its willingness to recognize Baku’s sovereignty in Nagorno-Karabakh. The talks still stalled on the fate of Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh under Azerbaijani rule, as Baku rejected international guarantees proposals. Since June, the situation has not improved. About the authors Alessia Cappelletti Alessia is Lead Analyst at Dyami, where she researches and analyzes security threats at both operational and geopolitical levels. She has field experience in South America, Colombia especially, and has experience in researching organized crime and conflicts. Her academic background includes conflict analysis, international humanitarian law, and criminology. Jacob Dickinson Jacob studied Global Political Economy at Leiden University. He is passionate about international development and is looking to expand his expertise in geopolitics and crisis management. Curious about other cultures, he has traveled in Europe and Asia for both academic study and professional purposes. His expertise includes the geopolitics of oil and industrial upgrading in the electronics global value chain. He is particularly interested in the evolving political and economic relationships between China and ASEAN, and the consequences for regional development and security. Kevin Heller Kevin has over a decade of experience in the world of counter-terrorism as a consultant, trainer, and analyst. His background is in military Close Quarter Battle/Combat and Krav Maga for Military and Law Enforcement agencies. As a Global Intelligence Analyst, he writes Intel Briefs on conflict zones and terrorism. He has extensive knowledge of conflicts, politics, and other events happening in the Middle East. Kevin also has a background in Journalism and International Affairs/Conflict Studies. Marnix van ‘t Hoff Marnix Van 't Hoff is an experienced Aviation Security Consultant with a background in Aviation Studies from the Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences. He has a background in aviation security and has worked as a security risk and threat assessments (SRTA) specialist for aviation clients. He is an experienced crisis team leader and a HEAT trainer.

Date: 19/05/2023 Location: Pakistan Parties involved: the Pakistani Military, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Party, Imran Khan, Shehbaz Sharif, the Pakistani Government, the Anti-Corruption Office. The Events: On 09/05/2023 former Prime Minister, Imran Khan, was arrested by Pakistani paramilitary units over corruption charges while leaving court. Key figures from his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), were also arrested on 10/05/2023. Khan was subsequently released on 11/05/2023 after Pakistan’s Supreme Court deemed his arrest as unlawful but there are speculations another arrest may be attempted. Pakistan has been in a long-running political crisis since Khan was removed from power as Prime Minister in May 2022, which he labeled as a ‘coup’. This prompted months of protests against the Pakistani coalition government led by Shebhaz Sharif. Khan has criticized the Pakistani military as a corrupt and authoritarian force, and hailed his movement as the true expression of Pakistan’s democracy. Polls have confirmed that Khan is the most popular politician in the country. Consequently, he has been demanding that early elections be held for months, but the government has vehemently resisted calling any election until October 2023. On 03/11/2022, Khan survived an assassination attempt in Wazirabad, Punjab. This intensified his verbal attacks on the Pakistani government and the military. Pakistani law enforcement agencies also attempted to arrest Khan in March 2023 but his supporters fought off the local police. Khan eventually turned himself in to deal with a separate court case. Mass unrest has erupted across the country with protestors storming the Army Headquarters in Rawalpindi and looting the Punjab Army Corps commander’s house in Lahore on the night of 09/05/2023. Violent clashes between protesters and state authorities have resulted in 10 deaths and 1,400 arrests so far. The military has been called in to restore order across the provinces of Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and the city of Islamabad, with the Prime Minister, Shebhaz Sharif, stating that demonstrators “will be given an exemplary punishment.” Analysis: The arrest of former Prime Minister, Imran Khan, has caused an escalation in the political crisis facing Pakistan. Khan’s ongoing popularity has become a threat to the incumbent Pakistani government, thus prompting the Pakistani military to decisively intervene in order to remove him and consolidate the government’s power. However, the incumbent government is now confronting an existential crisis. The current unrest shows a public who has lost faith in its government and perceives it as a corrupt authoritarian regime, further, the court decision in favor of Khan further delegitimates the government’s tactics and forces them into a corner: either ignore the court and escalate the crisis, or back down and lose whatever remains of their legitimacy. With the military having been deployed directly against the protestors, it is very likely that violence in the country will escalate. There is a possibility that there may be further loss of life due to the high chances that the military may fire onto protestors and engage in direct violent clashes on the streets. If the security situation deteriorates further, we may see the imposition of a state of emergency in Pakistan and even direct military rule. Civil-military relations are fraught with contention in Pakistan as the military holds substantial, if not dominant, political power in the decision-making process. The civilian government rests only on the legitimacy of the military, and so their domestic authority is wholly dependent on keeping the military content. Most worryingly from the perspective of Pakistani security, the military itself is losing legitimacy in the eyes of the Pakistani people with their arrest of Khan. With how integrated the military is to the conception of Pakistani statehood, and how overwhelmingly dominant it is to the country’s politics, it serves as a massive destabilizing point. With the freeing of Khan, it is unlikely the military will accept the decision amid their wider repression against the PTI. At the moment, the ongoing political instability holds consequences for the response to the country’s crises and the security of the wider region. Pakistan is still reeling from the floods in October 2022, made worse by climate change, which submerged a third of the country underwater and pushed the country further to the brink of an economic crisis. There are fears that political instability in Pakistan could reverse the ceasefire on the border with India. India fired rockets into Pakistan in 2019 after an attack by Pakistan-based militants against the Indian army in Kashmir. For two nuclear-armed rival states, the lack of control could escalate political tensions between the two countries. It is unlikely that the crisis will de-escalate without snap elections being called, however this constitutes a very delicate political situation. Whilst both sides agree that elections should be held in the near future, neither side trusts that the other will abide by fair democratic practices. Therefore, any election result would be highly contested because of the high chances of vote-rigging by the military, which calls into question the overall legitimacy of the Pakistani political system itself after its most recent democratization in 2008. The situation is setting Pakistani institutions against one another, with the political establishment and military against Khan and, seemingly, the judiciary, creating an unsustainable situation. Concluding Remarks: The Pakistani political crisis has a risk of escalation after the arrest, and reluctant release, of Imran Khan. The threat of the situation descending into large-scale violence and politicized violence, and even possible civil war, is extremely pronounced, with dim prospects for a peaceful de-escalation. The scale of the crisis is unprecedented in Pakistan, and on top of a debilitating economic crisis, the security situation is at risk of a breakdown.